The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says the global economy is headed for a downturn and North America will be hardest hit. In related news: Canada’s First-Ministers on the Canadian economy; RBC Elements and TD Securities on forest-product headwinds, and the NAHB on pending changes to lumber duties and EPA burdens. Meanwhile, from International Pulp Week:
- ERA’s Kevin Mason: Key developments from the past and what’s coming next
- Numera’s Joaquin Kritz Lara: Tariffs, uncertainty, and the US economic outlook
- Metsä’s Mikko Antsalo and Suzano’s Leonardo Grimaldi: Softwood and hardwood pulp markets
- CO280’s Jonathan Rhone and Osapiens’ Parker Budding: Carbon and EUDR compliance
In Forestry/Wildfire news: the US Forest Service chief wants wildfires extinguished ASAP; no relief in sight for Saskatchewan communities under evacuation; wildfires prompt air quality statements across northwestern Ontario; here’s where wildfire smoke is spreading in Canada and the US; and how illegal logging funds cartels, terrorists, and rogue regimes.
Finally, the AWC’s Mass Timber Guide, and the latest Canada Wood market news.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor
International Pulp Week 2025 opened in Vancouver with a note of celebration and reflection as delegates marked the event’s 20th anniversary. “After decades of being in Montreal in January… we decided to move the event to Vancouver and into the spring and summer months,” said Tim Brown, Vice-President at Numera Analytics. 
Jonathan Rhone, CEO of CO280, began by stating that “capturing and permanently sequestering biogenic CO₂ from boiler stack emissions represents a $100 billion per year market opportunity for the global pulp and paper sector.” The market, he said, is being created by global technology and financial firms—“Microsoft, JPMorgan, Google”—that are purchasing high-durability carbon dioxide removals (CDRs) to meet their net zero obligations.
…Parker Budding, representing Osapiens, followed with a presentation on how pulp producers can prepare for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which comes into force on December 31, 2025. The regulation prohibits companies from placing products on the EU market unless they can prove the goods are deforestation-free and legally produced.
…Mikko Antsalo began by stating, “Softwood pulp markets are projected to remain well-balanced,” citing steady demand growth and the absence of new capacity announcements as stabilizing factors. He concluded by reinforcing Metsä Fibre’s preparedness for the future: “We offer customers an optimized supply chain, fossil-free production, and are well positioned to fulfill upcoming sustainability requirements.” 
“Today, Canada’s First Ministers met in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, to build a stronger, more competitive, and more resilient Canadian economy… “This is a first step in implementing a broader set of reforms to overhaul the project assessment process. A significantly improved, streamlined project assessment process is necessary for Canada to grow its economy to become the strongest in the G7 and a global energy superpower. “First Ministers are committed to immediately begin to address project approval and permitting efficiency and timelines for all projects. Premiers welcomed the Prime Minister’s commitment to ensuring all federal assessment decisions are rendered within two years, beginning with projects of national interest. First Ministers also agreed to work toward efficiently and effectively implementing ‘one project, one review’ with the goal of a single assessment for all projects, in a manner that respects federal, provincial, and territorial jurisdiction, enhancing co-ordination activities on permitting and eliminating duplication.
As Premier David Eby and a British Columbia delegation tours Japan, South Korea and Malaysia, Prince George’s opposition MLAs say the trip is “damage control” for his government’s previous policies as well as the reception to the recently passed bills 14 and 15. Eby and a delegation left for a 10-day trip to Japan, South Korea and Malaysia on Saturday, May 31. One notable absence from the trip is British Columbia Assembly of First Nations Regional Chief Terry Teegee, who said in a Friday, May 30 media release that he could not participate in a mission launched by a government that passed legislation trampling First Nations’ rights. Reached by phone on Monday, June 2, Prince George-North Cariboo, Prince George-Valemount and Prince George-Mackenzie Conservative MLAs Sheldon Clare, Rosalyn Bird and Kiel Giddens said the NDP are trying to make up for having closed British Columbia’s independent trade offices in Asia over the last eight years.
Lumber is in the spotlight as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the US Lumber Coalition disagree over what’s behind the U.S. housing market slump. The NAHB has pointed to tariff uncertainty and lumber prices as being partly responsible. The US’s current anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duty on imported Canadian softwood lumber stands at 14.5%. It could potentially climb later in the year to nearly 35%. “I share President Trump’s desire to create fair and balanced trade across our borders, certainly would bring back as much production as we can,” NAHB CEO Jim Tobin said. “But until we do that, and it will take years and millions of dollars of investment, we need to make sure that we have a reliable, affordable source of lumber.” …The US Lumber Coalition has also been critical of Canada, saying that “ongoing unfair trade practices” by its lumber industry have been “extremely harmful to US lumber producers.”
Economic growth forecasts for the US and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OEDC) as President Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations. The US growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025. The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade. Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico”. “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026. It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026. …The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs will also push up inflation.”
Read these stories and more in the June newsletter:
The American Wood Council (AWC) has released a national Mass Timber Alternative Materials and Methods (AMM) Guide for use with the 2018 International Building Code (IBC). This new resource is designed to support building code officials as they review, permit and approve mass timber projects across the country. The AMM Guide is designed to help bridge the gap between the codes adopted in each state and the newer mass timber provisions in the 2024 IBC. Adopting the most recent edition of the Building Code, like the 2024 IBC, can be a slow multi-year process for states or jurisdictions. As a result, there is sometimes a gap between what is included in the currently adopted code in a state and what is allowable based on the latest available ICC I-codes. The AMM guide serves to fill that space by offering code provisions for jurisdictions without mass timber specific guidance.
Pulp and paper company Green Bay Packaging will be breaking ground on a $1 billion expansion to its Morrilton packaging plant Tuesday, according to a news release from Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ office. The company announced an expansion of its Arkansas Kraft Mill in Morrilton in December. The news release from Sanders’ office lauded the investment as the “largest capital investment project in Central Arkansas’ history.” It comes about a month after the announcement of a $1 billion data center in Little Rock, which was referred to as the “largest economic development capital investment” in Little Rock’s history. Green Bay’s multi-year expansion is geared toward modernization. According to a release, it will “significantly enhance the infrastructure of the mill” and, among other investments, it will involve the installation of an electric turbine generator, which will “substantially reduce” the plant’s Scope One and Scope Two greenhouse gas emissions.
are expected to go up around Edmonton this week to capture the emerald ash borer. The shining and dangerous pest is poised to wreak havoc on Edmonton’s $400-million population of ash trees, and the city has two staffers working full time to detect any advance here as the invasive bug closes in from the west or east into Alberta. “We have the largest percentage of our urban forest canopy in green ash of almost any city in North America,” said Michael Jenkins, senior scientist with the City of Edmonton. Ranging from 8.5 mm to 14 mm long and 3.1 mm to 3.4 mm wide, the beetle is difficult to spot. “A single piece of firewood can destroy millions of trees,” warns a poster depicting a stack of ash firewood as dynamite sticks with an emerald ash borer at the tip of the fuse.
Is your community prepared for the rising risk of wildfires? Join wildfire mitigation experts from Silvacom for an insightful webinar on launching effective Community Fireguard projects. This session is designed to equip you with the knowledge to protect people, infrastructure, and vital ecosystems. Learn how Fireguards serve as a critical front-line defense and understand the comprehensive process from initial concept to successful construction. Municipal Leaders, First Nations Representatives, Planners and Land Managers, and people involved in community wildfire preparedness and mitigation in Alberta are encouraged to attend. Highlights: 
As dozens of wildfires continue to burn across Canada, flames are sending far-reaching plumes of smoke into the sky and unhealthy air to distant places. Some of the more gigantic blazes have been delivering thick smoke that spread southward into the United States over recent days. The fires are burning from British Columbia, through Alberta and Saskatchewan to Manitoba and Ontario — with several between 100,000 and 300,000 hectares apiece. More smoky skies are expected as this week begins, although the smoke is not expected to be as thick as it’s been in recent days. Prime fire season in Canada is just beginning, though already about half a year’s worth of land has been scorched, according to the long-term average. [a paid subscription is required to read this article]
The federal government is awarding Utah $3 million to purchase conservation easements in southern Utah near Zion National Park. The funding — awarded to the Utah Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands by the U.S. Department of Agriculture — was announced Monday and will go toward ongoing forest preservation efforts outside of the national park. Called the Zion Connectivity Project, the state will direct the funding at two properties totalling 766 acres near the north section of the national park. A conservation easement — a legally binding agreement between a landowner and government that places restrictions on the land for environmental purposes — will prevent the land from being fragmented or developed. That will help preserve the ecologically rich stretch of forest. Old-growth ponderosa pines, some of them hundreds of years old, can be found in the area.
Sawmills are working to recycle trees blown down by Hurricane Helene to assist wildland firefighters while boosting domestic timber production. Many of the trees downed by the storm are usable, according to Johnny Evans, owner of EvAns Lumber Co. in Manchester, Tennessee. About 6% of the lumber produced at his facility comes from trees that fell during natural disasters. The Tennessee Department of Agriculture’s Forestry Division estimated it could take at least three years for the thickest trees downed by Hurricane Helene to dry out enough to become potential wildfire fuel. However, those trees can still hinder firefighting efforts by getting in the way of bulldozers used to create firelines. “Those trees are there just blocking the dozers. So we have to send in crews to clear a path for the dozers,” Megan Carpenter, a spokesperson for the Tennessee Department of Agriculture’s Forestry Division, said.
A quarter of a Welsh city will be covered by tree canopies within 10 years due to a new plan to boost its “urban forest”. Almost 30,000 trees will be planted in Newport to supplement about 250,000 existing trees. Wales was the first country in the world to measure its urban tree coverage. The council hopes these trees and others planted by private developers and landowners will take canopy cover in Newport – which at 18% had the highest proportion of any Welsh city in 2016 – to 25%. Joanne Gossage, service manager for environment and leisure at Newport council said the city had “green oasis” parks. She said: “We feel that Newport is a very green city and we don’t think it’s too far of a stretch to get to that 25%. “People’s perception of an urban forest is something dark, perhaps menacing and dingy. It’s not. It’s about trees making attractive frameworks in limited open space.”
Around the world, nefarious state and nonstate actors are extracting enormous value from forests to fund their operations. The unlawful clearing of land and the harvest, transport, purchase, and sale of timber and related commodities have long been dismissed as a niche concern of environmental activists. But this is a mistake. Although unsustainable deforestation imperils the environment, illegal logging also poses an outsize—and underacknowledged—geopolitical threat. Environmental crime constitutes a growing economic and national security threat to the United States and countries around the world. Yet Washington has largely ignored illegal logging’s role in its fight against transnational criminal organizations, drug cartels, terrorists, and rogue regimes, as well as China’s part in this illicit trade. Thankfully, the blueprint for fighting transnational crime already exists: better cooperation among governments, increased enforcement, more transparent supply chains, public-private partnerships, and most important, following the money.
A law signed by Gov. Janet Mills last week 
Rio Tinto has started growing pongamia trees in northern Australia, as part of a biofuels project aimed at reducing the mining giant’s reliance on fossil fuels. Pongamia trees are native to Australia and produce oil-rich seeds that can be processed into renewable diesel… Earlier this year, Rio Tinto trialled 10 million litres of renewable diesel — created from used cooking oil — across its Pilbara iron ore operations in Western Australia. The biofuel got used across the supply chain, featuring in Rio Tinto’s rail, marine, haul trucks, surface mining equipment and light vehicles… Forestry Industry Association of the Northern Territory (FIANT) manager Hanna Lillicrap said it was great to see a major mining company getting involved in the forestry sector. “It reflects a growing recognition of the role forestry can play as a climate-positive solution in emissions reduction strategies,” she said. “It’s great to see serious investment going into research to better understand the species and its potential,” she said.
CHICAGO and OTTAWA, ON – As devastating wildfires continue to increase throughout North America, the American and Canadian Lung Associations are collaborating for a second year to raise awareness about the health risks associated with wildfire smoke, educate people on how to protect themselves, and promote strategies to mitigate the occurrence of catastrophic wildfires. …To protect residents in both countries from the harmful health impacts of wildfires, the American Lung Association and the Canadian Lung Association are once again working together, concentrating their efforts on three key areas: awareness, education and advocacy.
Wildfires in Saskatchewan are expected to continue to grow aggressively during the next few days, fuelled by high temperatures, winds and dry conditions. And there’s no sign of relief in sight, according to the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency. “This will drastically impact our ability to contain some of these fires and will actually cause some of these fires to grow in size over the next period of time,” Steve Roberts, SPSA vice-president of operations, said Sunday. As of Sunday afternoon, 15 fires were burning in the province, down from 17 because two fires have merged and some small fires have been contained, the SPSA said. Roberts said 20 communities are under an evacuation order as of Sunday. The latest evacuation orders have been in Sturgeon Landing and Timber Bay. Thousands of people have already been displaced from their homes in communities including Hall Lake, Pelican Narrows, Creighton, Denare Beach and Weyakwin.
A number of special air quality statements are in effect across northwestern Ontario, as wildfire activity remains rampant throughout the region. Statements were issued early Monday morning for well over a dozen communities, including several First Nations… “Wildfire smoke is expected to move into the area early this morning and may remain in place for the next several days for some areas,” the statements say. “As smoke levels increase, health risks increase. Limit time outdoors.” Evacuations are continuing in Deer Lake First Nation and Webequie First Nation. Meanwhile, members of Wabaseemoong Independent Nations have been under an evacuation order since mid-May. Webequie First Nation first declared a state of emergency on Thursday. Chief Cornelius Wabasse said high demands for aircraft in other communities affected by wildfires delayed his community’s evacuation. “There is a shortage of planes and also other resources,” Wabasse said on Monday morning.