BC Premier Eby says American tariffs on BC lumber are absurd, means Russia now has preferential access to the US market. In related commentary:
- USW’s Jeff Bromley: US tariffs are a devastating blow to workers & communities
- ERA’s Kevin Mason: Demand is not coming to the rescue for the forest industry
- IWPA’s Brian Menzies: BC Independent Wood Processors are frustrated
- Brink FP’s John Brink: New softwood tariffs mean layoffs, closures likely
- BC Conservative’s Ward Stamer: I’m underwhelmed by government’s response
In other news: Mi’kmaw say they won’t leave even if Nova Scotia passes controversial law; Northern Ontario officials call on feds to stop Kap Paper mill closure; plans for Saskatchewan OSB mill are still underway; and lumber market analyses by RISI and ResourceWise. Meanwhile: the USDA expects to furlough half its workforce during US government shut down; and US Consumer confidence fell to a 5-month low.
Finally, the latest news from FSC Canada; Wood Pellet Association of Canada; and Australian Forest Products Association.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor
The United Steelworkers union (USW) is denouncing the latest escalation in Trump’s trade war, following his September 29 proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber exports to the US. …“For decades, Canadian lumber has supported the US housing market, keeping construction costs down for American families while sustaining good jobs here at home,” said Marty Warren, USW National Director. “Instead of recognizing that reality, Trump has chosen to pursue reckless trade policies that will drive up housing prices in the US and put tens of thousands of Canadian jobs at risk.” …Jeff Bromley, Chair of the USW Wood Council, underscored the toll on workers and communities across the country. “With nearly half the value of every Canadian lumber shipment being siphoned off at the border, sawmills, logging operations and whole towns in Canada are facing devastating consequences.” …The Steelworkers are urging the federal government to respond with urgency and resolve. 
PRINCE ALBERT, Saskatchewan — “It’s taking way too long, and harder than we were hoping, but we have not given up.” That’s the message being delivered by those involved with One Sky Forestry Products‘ OSB mill project planned for Prince Albert. Last week, the Saskatchewan NDP said the mill was the latest in a string of major economic projects delayed or cancelled under a Sask. Party government. …However, a source at the OSB mill project said while they were in somewhat of a holding pattern because of the trade uncertainty with the US, the board of directors had a meeting last week and made the unanimous decision not to cancel or shelve the project, but instead look at ways to move it along. …They added the timing of the project that was supposed to be completed in 2027 and provide 700 jobs, will depend on whether they can tap into financing support sooner rather than later.
Much of the federal government shutdown in the early hours of Oct. 1 after federal lawmakers failed to reach a funding deal. If the shutdown persists, work related to federal data reporting, rulemakings and other regulatory initiatives could face delays. Ahead of the shutdown, many federal agencies published contingency plans on how work at those agencies may be impacted in the short term. …The USDA is expected to furlough 42,256 of its 85,907 employees, equating to more than 49% of the agency’s workforce. Data products and website updates offered by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and Foreign Agricultural Service are among agency activities that are expected to cease during the funding lapse. …FAS also publishes a variety of data of interest to bioenergy producers, including monthly export data on ethanol, distillers grains, biodiesel and wood pellets. FAS also publishes reports that provide insight on foreign markets for biofuels and wood pellets. 
Lumber futures prices are trading higher after President Trump slapped a 10% tariff on wood imports. Lumber prices have been on a rollercoaster this year, lifted by higher import taxes and tugged lower by the deteriorating housing and construction markets. …Trump’s executive order said the additional 10% tariff, which will also raise the price of lumber from European suppliers like Germany and Sweden, is aimed at protecting domestic sawmills. …Analysts expect the tariff to benefit domestic sawyers and timberland owners, such as Weyerhaeuser and PotlatchDeltic, at the expense of competitors north of the border, who have been losing US market share because of the duties, challenges supplying their sawmills with logs and the abundance of cheap US pine. “Canadian lumber producers’ cash costs should further increase, resulting in capacity closures and a tightening of lumber supply-demand dynamics,” said Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
The softwood lumber trade dispute between the US and Canada, which has led to ever-higher US import duties on Canadian lumber, has lasted for decades. …Canadian lumber has the backing NAHB, which sees lumber tariffs as exacerbating high costs for builders and worsening the US housing affordability crisis. There is currently a “Wall of Wood” in the US, after Canadian producers increased shipments to the US in anticipation of the hike to existing ADD and CVD duties in August. Expectations that a large increase in duties would force the closure of Canadian sawmills, lead to shortages, and a boost in lumber prices, overlooked the current weak US demand for lumber, according to Matt Layman. …As US homebuilders now face additional tariff-driven costs, including a 50% tariff on cabinets and vanities, it’s hard to see the lumber demand situation improving, even if more Canadian suppliers have to curtail production or close sawmills.
Although we are skeptical how effective the C$500 million in “transition” funding will be, the C$700 million in loan guarantees, which are clearly designed as a short-term lifeline for companies to weather the storm, seem pretty meaningful to the Canadian industry at first glance. …If Canadian producers were to simply absorb the incremental duty rate increase, using today’s FOB price for most Canadian softwood lumber and last year’s export volumes to the US translates to a “just pay it” cost of C$1.6-1.7 billion in additional duty payments over the next 12 months. Canadian mill operators are not in a financial position to simply absorb an additional 21-percentage-point increase in duties, so this is an extreme estimate of the true cost. Mills will curtail output rather than continue producing at heavy losses until prices adjust accordingly. Additionally, there is usually some degree of passthrough from the buyer to the seller.
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Date: Wednesday, October 8, 2025 | Doors: 6 pm | Event: 7 pm | Reception: 8:30 pm | Location: Hollywood Theatre, 3123 W. Broadway, Vancouver
A group of University of Toronto forestry students collected acorns from a giant White Oak tree at Queen’s Park on Wednesday as part of an effort to preserve the diversity of Toronto’s native trees. Eric Davies, a forest ecologist at the University of Toronto, led a group of undergraduate students in the university’s foresters club as they gathered about six litres of acorns from a tree in Queen’s Park North, one of four remaining large White Oaks in the park. White Oaks, a common deciduous tree species in North America, are the largest and oldest trees in the green spaces outside the Ontario Legislature. …Davies said timing is key, as White Oaks produce acorns about once every five to 10 years — this year being one of them. …Davies said the students will donate most of the acorns to the City of Toronto’s tree seed diversity program in the next two weeks. Some of the acorns will be kept at U of T to be grown there, he added.
AUSTRALIA — The Federal Government’s National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy