US homebuilder confidence remains low as permits slide, but expectation of an interest rate cut boosts future sales expectations. In other Business news: the future of Domtar’s Glenwood, Arkansas sawmill is in question; and UPM extends its pulp mill closures in Finland. Meanwhile: AF&PA joins trade-group opposition to proposed US rail merger; and the American Journal of Transportation opines on Trump’s tariff war impact on trade, trucking and home ownership.
In Forestry/Wildfire news: Canada’s growing Wildland Urban Interface increases fire danger; what to know about the newly created US Wildland Fire Service; and wildfires continue to rage in Oregon’s Lane County; as fire bans are lifted for northern Vancouver Island. Meanwhile: Plilomath, Oregon adapts with mass timber; the Canadian Wood Council features Toronto’s Limberlost Place; and the BC Institute of Technology advances careers in the lumber and sawmill sector.
Finally, a US Lumber Coalition commentary claims most of lumber duties paid by Canadian mills will go into the US Treasury.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor
Trade associations representing various industries issued a letter Tuesday expressing “serious concerns” about a proposed merger between major rail companies Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific. “We write to express our serious concerns and reservations about the proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern,” said the letter, which came from trade associations representing manufacturing, chemical, energy and agriculture firms. “Past rail mergers have shown what happens when consolidation goes unchecked: service suffers, costs increase, and jobs disappear,” the trade groups wrote to the U.S. Surface Transportation Board. …The railroad companies, however, have argued that the merger will be a benefit to the country, improving efficiency and allowing for more routes. …In addition to the American Chemistry Council, signatories of the letter include the American Petroleum Institute, International Dairy Foods Association and the American Forest and Paper Association.
New Zealand — Up to 119 jobs could go at Carter Holt Harvey’s Tokoroa factory, with locals calling the move devastating for the town. A union representing workers at Carter Holt Harvey’s Tokoroa plywood manufacturing plant says its closure will be devastating for the town. The company has begun consultation with staff on closing the plant and importing ply from overseas, with the loss of up to 119 full-time jobs. The proposed closure follows OJI Fibre Solutions cutting 130 jobs and closing the country’s last paper-making machine at nearby Kinleith in June this year. Red Middlemiss has been a union spokesperson at the ply plant for 23 years. He said Carter Holt Harvey can now make and import plywood from overseas for around 60 percent of what it costs to manufacture it locally.
Higher duty rate and possible additional tariffs have transportation modes on edge. The softwood lumber dispute threatens to have repercussions on various transportation modes, particularly trucking. “Our members are saying their business is still okay, even with the softer rates due to mill overcapacity, but they’re worried that if anyone pushes on this wall with more tariffs, there’s nothing to hold it up,” says Dave Earle, the BC Trucking Association’s CEO. …Trucking has already been dealing with the overcapacity that was put in place for the greater demands for deliveries for most everything during the pandemic but has not subsided. …In terms of rail services, CPKC has seen its forest product shipments rise this year to date based on revenue ton miles. …At the Port of Vancouver in British Columbia, the potential to export more lumber is significant with approximately half of last year’s containers leaving the port empty. 
Major concerns are being expressed on both sides of the border regarding the higher US duties on Canada’s softwood lumber. …The current 35.19% duty, along with any steeper tariff, is detrimental to US homebuilders and homebuyers longer term, warns Rose Quint, of NAHB Survey Research. Higher mortgage rates of 6% to 7% since 2022 have already weakened housing demand and caused lumber prices to edge downwards. The real effect of tariffs might be delayed by wholesalers having stocked up building materials earlier in the year to avoid higher tariffs “Years of building above and beyond our traditional baseline is required to make up the 1.5 million deficit that we have in new housing units,” Quint adds. …Affordability challenges already existed and will be further worsened by the higher costs. …The overriding hope among the Canadian producers and American homebuilders is that a suitable agreement will be reached between the US and Canada. 
Housing starts in the US fell last month to the lowest since May, as bloated home inventory slowed builders’ appetites to boost production. New residential construction decreased 8.5% last month to an annualized rate of 1.31 million homes, government data released Wednesday showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economist was for 1.37 million starts. Meantime, starts of one-family homes fell 7% to an annualized 890,000, the lowest in more than a year. Multifamily construction, which has helped lift overall construction in recent months, also declined, falling nearly 12% to a three-month low. …Traders expect the Federal Reserve to trim interest rates multiple times this year, starting on Wednesday. And separate data out Wednesday showed mortgage rates fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a year, spurring a surge in refinancing.
Single-family housing permits slipped for the seventh month in a row, highlighting affordability headwinds and weak demand. While multifamily permits ticked up, the sector’s volatility leaves the outlook uncertain. The split underscores a housing market still under strain, with single-family softness weighing on broader growth prospects. Over the first seven months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 565,208. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 5.7% over the July 2024 level of 599,308. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 286,836. This is 2.6% higher compared to the July 2024 level of 279,618.
The BCIT School of Construction and the Environment offers two Associate Certificate programs designed to support workforce development in the North American lumber and sawmill sector: 
… Fires in Canada’s Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) are becoming more common as cities continue to sprawl, increasing the risk to structures. Regions across the country are grappling with the competing pressures of building housing and expanding industry, while climate change… continues to create hot, dry conditions that make wildfires more intense and frequent. A 
The Coastal Fire Centre is lifting the campfire ban for the Campbell River, North Island and Sunshine Coast forest districts as of Sept. 17 at noon. Due to declining fire danger ratings on the northern part of Vancouver Island, the Province has chosen to re-allow campfires and other small fires in the area. Campfires will remain prohibited for the rest of the Coastal Fire Centre, with the exception of the Haida Gwaii Forest District. The activities that will be allowed also include the use of sky lanterns, wood-fired hot tubs, pizza ovens and other devices that are not vented through a flue or are incorporated into buildings. Category 2 and 3 open fires remain prohibited throughout the Coastal Fire Centre, which includes backyard burning, industrial burning, fireworks, burn barrels and burn cages. These restrictions will remain in place until 12:00 (noon), PDT, on Friday October 31, 2025, or until the order is rescinded.
