Daily News for October 02, 2025

Today’s Takeaway

US tariffs on Canadian lumber are absurd, means Russia now has preferential access to the US market

The Tree Frog Forestry News
October 2, 2025
Category: Today's Takeaway

BC Premier Eby says American tariffs on BC lumber are absurd, means Russia now has preferential access to the US market. In related commentary: 

In other news: Mi’kmaw say they won’t leave even if Nova Scotia passes controversial law; Northern Ontario officials call on feds to stop Kap Paper mill closure; plans for Saskatchewan OSB mill are still underway; and lumber market analyses by RISI and ResourceWise. Meanwhile: the USDA expects to furlough half its workforce during US government shut down; and US Consumer confidence fell to a 5-month low.

Finally, the latest news from FSC Canada; Wood Pellet Association of Canada; and Australian Forest Products Association.

Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor

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Opinion / EdiTOADial

Demand is not coming to the rescue for the forest industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial: Mason

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
October 1, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date.  Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising! 

For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts.  On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.

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Business & Politics

Steelworkers denounce Trump’s reckless lumber tariffs as devastating blow to workers and communities

By Marty Warren and Jeff Bromley
United Steelworkers
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

The United Steelworkers union (USW) is denouncing the latest escalation in Trump’s trade war, following his September 29 proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber exports to the US. …“For decades, Canadian lumber has supported the US housing market, keeping construction costs down for American families while sustaining good jobs here at home,” said Marty Warren, USW National Director. “Instead of recognizing that reality, Trump has chosen to pursue reckless trade policies that will drive up housing prices in the US and put tens of thousands of Canadian jobs at risk.” …Jeff Bromley, Chair of the USW Wood Council, underscored the toll on workers and communities across the country. “With nearly half the value of every Canadian lumber shipment being siphoned off at the border, sawmills, logging operations and whole towns in Canada are facing devastating consequences.” …The Steelworkers are urging the federal government to respond with urgency and resolve. 

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Plans for OSB mill in Prince Albert still underway despite market uncertainty

By Teena Monteleone
Prince Albert NOW
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

PRINCE ALBERT, Saskatchewan — “It’s taking way too long, and harder than we were hoping, but we have not given up.” That’s the message being delivered by those involved with One Sky Forestry Products‘ OSB mill project planned for Prince Albert. Last week, the Saskatchewan NDP said the mill was the latest in a string of major economic projects delayed or cancelled under a Sask. Party government. …However, a source at the OSB mill project said while they were in somewhat of a holding pattern because of the trade uncertainty with the US, the board of directors had a meeting last week and made the unanimous decision not to cancel or shelve the project, but instead look at ways to move it along. …They added the timing of the project that was supposed to be completed in 2027 and provide 700 jobs, will depend on whether they can tap into financing support sooner rather than later.

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B.C. lumber industry faces eye-watering 45% U.S. tariffs

CBC News
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would impose a further 10 per cent tariff on imported lumber — beyond existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties — meaning B.C. lumber will face a 45 per cent tariff rate starting on Oct. 14. Brian Menzies of the Independent Wood Processors Association of B.C. says the U.S. government hasn’t shown a willingness to hash out a deal on softwood lumber, despite overtures from Canada.

Related coverage:

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American tariffs on BC lumber are absurd, means Russia now has preferential access to the US market

By Wolfgang Depner
The Victoria Times Colonist
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Eby

Ravi Parmar

It is “completely absurd” that softwood lumber exports from BC to the United States face higher duties than the same product from Russia, Premier David Eby said Wednesday. He said the softwood lumber industry is “under direct attack” after US President Trump imposed an additional tariff of 10% on imported softwood lumber starting Oct. 14. “I want you to just keep in mind the perspective that Russia now has preferential access for their softwood to the US compared with Canada and British Columbia,” Eby said. …This new levy means that Canadian softwood lumber entering the US will see total import taxes exceeding 45%, while Russia is exempt. …Forests Minister Ravi Parmar said “Russia is the largest exporter of softwood lumber in the world. BC, a small province, is the second-largest. So, the US has a choice. Do they want to do business with British Columbia or do they want to do business with Russia?”

BC Government Press Release: Premier’s, minister’s statements on Section 232 tariff decision from United States

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Northern Ontario officials call on feds, province to stop Kap Paper mill closure

By Joseph Ryan
CityNews Everywhere
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada East

Officials and residents of Kapuskasing gathered Wednesday to call on provincial and federal governments to work with the town to keep a paper mill from closing, urging them to “not point fingers at each other.” Kap Paper announced it will begin winding down after failing to secure immediate financial support from the federal government. …the timing “doesn’t appear to be aligning” for a solution to keep the mill open. …Ottawa said Tuesday that it would keep working to help save the mill, with Industry Minister saying it had offered supports such as the Strategic Innovation Fund and targeted programs. …Meanwhile, the provincial government said Monday it has provided Kap Paper with millions to help cover operating expenses and is “disappointed” that the federal government has failed to join in providing immediate support. …Peter Politis, mayor of nearby Cochrane, Ont., said the issue impacts the entire northern Ontario community.

Related coverage from the Ontario Forest Industries Association: OFIA Statement on Kapuskasing Paper Mill and Sawmill Curtailments 

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US Government Shuts Down After Lawmakers Fail To Reach Funding Deal

By Erin Krueger
Biodiesel Magazine
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States
 

Much of the federal government shutdown in the early hours of Oct. 1 after federal lawmakers failed to reach a funding deal. If  the shutdown persists, work related to federal data reporting, rulemakings and other regulatory initiatives could face delays.  Ahead of the shutdown, many federal agencies published contingency plans on how work at those agencies may be impacted in the short term. …The USDA is expected to furlough 42,256 of its 85,907 employees, equating to more than 49% of the agency’s workforce. Data products and website updates offered by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and Foreign Agricultural Service are among agency activities that are expected to cease during the funding lapse. …FAS also publishes a variety of data of interest to bioenergy producers, including monthly export data on ethanol, distillers grains, biodiesel and wood pellets. FAS also publishes reports that provide insight on foreign markets for biofuels and wood pellets. 

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Finance & Economics

Lumber Futures Prices Rise on Trump’s New Tariff

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures prices are trading higher after President Trump slapped a 10% tariff on wood imports. Lumber prices have been on a rollercoaster this year, lifted by higher import taxes and tugged lower by the deteriorating housing and construction markets. …Trump’s executive order said the additional 10% tariff, which will also raise the price of lumber from European suppliers like Germany and Sweden, is aimed at protecting domestic sawmills. …Analysts expect the tariff to benefit domestic sawyers and timberland owners, such as Weyerhaeuser and PotlatchDeltic, at the expense of competitors north of the border, who have been losing US market share because of the duties, challenges supplying their sawmills with logs and the abundance of cheap US pine. “Canadian lumber producers’ cash costs should further increase, resulting in capacity closures and a tightening of lumber supply-demand dynamics,” said Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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U.S. Section 232 Tariffs on Lumber: Navigating the New Trade Landscape

By Audrey Dixon
ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The softwood lumber trade dispute between the US and Canada, which has led to ever-higher US import duties on Canadian lumber, has lasted for decades. …Canadian lumber has the backing NAHB, which sees lumber tariffs as exacerbating high costs for builders and worsening the US housing affordability crisis. There is currently a “Wall of Wood” in the US, after Canadian producers increased shipments to the US in anticipation of the hike to existing ADD and CVD duties in August. Expectations that a large increase in duties would force the closure of Canadian sawmills, lead to shortages, and a boost in lumber prices, overlooked the current weak US demand for lumber, according to Matt Layman. …As US homebuilders now face additional tariff-driven costs, including a 50% tariff on cabinets and vanities, it’s hard to see the lumber demand situation improving, even if more Canadian suppliers have to curtail production or close sawmills.

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How are increased antidumping duties on Canadian lumber shipments to US likely to impact the market?

RISI Fastmarkets
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Although we are skeptical how effective the C$500 million in “transition” funding will be, the C$700 million in loan guarantees, which are clearly designed as a short-term lifeline for companies to weather the storm, seem pretty meaningful to the Canadian industry at first glance. …If Canadian producers were to simply absorb the incremental duty rate increase, using today’s FOB price for most Canadian softwood lumber and last year’s export volumes to the US translates to a “just pay it” cost of C$1.6-1.7 billion in additional duty payments over the next 12 months. Canadian mill operators are not in a financial position to simply absorb an additional 21-percentage-point increase in duties, so this is an extreme estimate of the true cost. Mills will curtail output rather than continue producing at heavy losses until prices adjust accordingly. Additionally, there is usually some degree of passthrough from the buyer to the seller.

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US Consumer Confidence Drops on Job Concerns

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer confidence fell to a five-month low as consumers remain concerned about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market amid economic uncertainty. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, has narrowed for nine straight month and is now at lowest level since March 2021. This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring. The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 97.8 to 94.2 in September, the lowest level since April. …In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 7.0 points from 132.4 to 125.4, the largest monthly decline since September 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped 1.3 points from 74.7 to 73.4. This is the eighth consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

Ronald McDonald House expands with new facility

The Remi Network – Construction Business
October 1, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada West

A new facility for Ronald McDonald House BC and Yukon will increase capacity to accommodate more families, following an investment of up to $18.8 million from the federal government. …Funding will provide for the construction of a second facility, Willow House, which will double the number of families accommodated and enhance support services for those with extended hospital stays. …Willow House will be a fully accessible, 130,000-square-foot facility featuring 75 family suites… This new net-zero building designed by Michael Green Architecture, will feature 12 storeys of structural mass timber, including CLT floor and roof panels, glulam columns and beams and an innovative CLT shear wall system. Willow House will be, at the time of its construction, the tallest building in a high-seismic zone to use mass timber for gravity and lateral force resistance.

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The Buildings Show 2025: Setting the stage for Canada’s construction future

By Robin MacLennan, Editor, Ontario Construction News
Ontario Construction News
October 1, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada East

For more than 35 years, The Buildings Show has been the gathering place for Canada’s building industry, bringing together leaders, innovators and practitioners for three days of learning, networking and discovery. This year’s event — running December 3–5 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre — is shaping up to be the most dynamic yet. …New for 2025, the Canadian Wood Council joins forces with The Buildings Show to introduce WoodWorks, integrating technical expertise and sustainable material innovation directly into the event. With new Friday programming and offsite WoodWorks education, the conference line-up is stronger than ever. To mark the countdown to The Buildings Show, Ontario Construction News is launching a video series featuring expert voices from across the industry. …In this first video, Clive Thurston, President of Thurston Consulting Services, talks about what makes Canada’s construction industry unique compared to its global counterparts.

Additional coverage from The Buildings Show: WoodWorks at The Buildings Show – incredible opportunity for all professionals of the built environment to immerse themselves in the latest innovations in wood-based design and construction.

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Forestry

Forest Stewardship Council Canada October Newsletter

Forest Stewardship Council Canada
October 1, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada

In this newsletter you’ll find:

  • FSC at Toronto Climate Week: Toronto Climate Week (TOCW), in partnership with the University of Toronto and MaRS, will kick off its inaugural edition with the flagship event True North Rising on October 1.
  • FSC Public Consultations:
    • Revision of Advice Note 20-007-23: Maximum hectare threshold for ‘very limited portion – open to October 12.
    • Conceptual phase of the Principles, Criteria and Indicators (PCI) revision begins October 1, 2025.
    • FSC International: “Management Activities” defined in FSC-PRO-60-006b FSC Risk Assessment Framework
  • FSC Circular Bioeconomy webinar presentation available on YouTube.
  • FSC recognized in Sustainability Magazine as one of the Top 10 Sustainability Associations.
  • New FSC webinar series to showcase Verified Impact.

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The Future of BC’s Forests: A Public Dialogue

Branchlines UBC Faculty of Forestry
October 2, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada West

Date: Wednesday, October 8, 2025 | Doors: 6 pm | Event: 7 pm | Reception: 8:30 pm | Location: Hollywood Theatre, 3123 W. Broadway, Vancouver

Forests are one of British Columbia’s most valuable resources, but their future is under pressure from wildfires, tariffs, and changing values around their use. How can we balance healthy ecosystems, community needs, and a sustainable economy? Join us for an engaging panel featuring: Molly Hudson, RPF, RPBio, Vice President of Forestry & Sustainability at Nch’ḵaỷ Development Corporation; Adam Olsen (SȾHENEP), Negotiator for the Tsartlip First Nation and former MLA; Dr. Dominik Roeser, Associate Dean at UBC Forestry and international leader in forest operations; and Lisa Matthaus, Provincial Lead for Organizing for Change and longtime forest policy advocate. Moderated discussion, audience Q&A, and a post-event reception will follow. UBC Forestry faculty and panelists will also prepare a white paper highlighting key recommendations.

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University of Toronto students gather White Oak acorns at Queen’s Park in an effort to preserve native trees

Muriel Draaisma
CBC News
October 1, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada East

A group of University of Toronto forestry students collected acorns from a giant White Oak tree at Queen’s Park on Wednesday as part of an effort to preserve the diversity of Toronto’s native trees. Eric Davies, a forest ecologist at the University of Toronto, led a group of undergraduate students in the university’s foresters club as they gathered about six litres of acorns from a tree in Queen’s Park North, one of four remaining large White Oaks in the park. White Oaks, a common deciduous tree species in North America, are the largest and oldest trees in the green spaces outside the Ontario Legislature. …Davies said timing is key, as White Oaks produce acorns about once every five to 10 years — this year being one of them. …Davies said the students will donate most of the acorns to the City of Toronto’s tree seed diversity program in the next two weeks. Some of the acorns will be kept at U of T to be grown there, he added.

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Mi’kmaw land protectors say they won’t leave mountain even if Nova Scotia passes controversial law

By Angel Moore
APTN News
October 1, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada East

While the Nova Scotia government works to pass its controversial law that would make it illegal to block forest roads in the province, Mi’kmaw land protectors say they’re not going anywhere. On Sept. 23, the province introduced the Protecting Nova Scotians Act… The part of the proposed law that is drawing the ire of Mi’kmaw across the province deals with Crown Lands. The bill promises to “prevent the blocking of forest access roads and to allow structures to be removed without notice if they are a hazard to public health, safety or order or if they are impeding the lawful use of Crown lands.” According to land protectors on the Hunters Mountain, that part of the bill is aimed at them. …They said they’re protecting the forest from clear-cutting. Sacred lands that contain medicines and important sites.

Additional coverage:

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

The Wood Pellet Association of Canada Conference offers wood pellet market and policy updates

By Andrew Snook, editor Pulp & Paper Canada
Pulp & Paper Canada
October 1, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada

The Wood Pellet Association of Canada (WPAC) Conference offered attendees updates on market and policy updates for the wood pellet sector. Pierre-Jonathan Teasdale, director of Trade and International Affairs Division, Canadian Forest Service (CFS) kicked off the session explaining the role of the CFS and discussing the policy environment for biomass, specifically wood pellets, as it relates to the role of the federal government. …FutureMetrics president Bill Strauss discussed the need to transition out of a carbon-based energy economy, and the role that wood pellets and biomass can play. …Hawkins Wright’s Fiona Matthews discussed global demand trends, trade flows and policy environments …Marta Imarisio, senior reporter at Argus Biomass, presented on the wood pellet market with a focus on the upcoming heating season. 

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Australian Forest Products Association welcomes National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy discussion paper

Australian Forest Products Association
October 2, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: International

AUSTRALIA — The Federal Government’s National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy discussion paper released by the Hon Julie Collins MP, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, is being welcomed by the Australian Forest Products Association (AFPA) for the new economic and environmental opportunities it presents for our sector and the country, Chief Executive Officer of AFPA, Diana Hallam said. The discussion paper covers the opportunities for bioenergy to contribute to Australia’s net zero goals, the production of potential feedstocks, required infrastructure and supply chain readiness and maturity, addressing social licence and sustainability, as well as biosecurity and traceability issues. …Diana Hallam said, “While many in the forest products industry are aware of the bioenergy opportunities for the sector, having a national strategy will seriously maximise the potential for forest industries to enhance their contribution, grow public awareness of the importance of wood fibre in this area and help Australia achieve net zero.

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