Daily News for November 05, 2025

Today’s Takeaway

FPAC welcomes softwood package in Canadian Budget 2025; trade certainty with US remains top priority

The Tree Frog Forestry News
November 5, 2025
Category: Today's Takeaway

The Forest Products Association of Canada welcomes softwood package in Budget 2025; trade certainty with US remains top priority. In related news: New Brunswick eyes the federal budget; BC’s finance minister seeks equal treatment; and dropping the 2-billion tree planting program is panned by the Canadian Tree Nursery Association. In other Business news: the US Supreme Court enters the lion’s den on Trump tariffs; Weyerhaeuser secures financing for Arkansas TimberStrand facility; and Western Forest Products (-$61M), Stella-Jones ($88M), PotlatchDeltic ($26M), and BlueLinx ($1.7M) reported their Q3, 2025 earnings.

In Forestry/Climate news: the EU agrees to weaken their climate target in final-hour deal for COP30; Ontario wildfires were well above 10-year average; Mosaic underscores importance of wildfire mitigation; a Montana judge halts logging project due to grizzlies; and a new study says the 2021 heat dome took its toll on Oregon’s forest canopy

Finally, ERA’s Kevin Mason says markets struggle as confidence erodes and housing stalls. 

Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor

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Opinion / EdiTOADial

Markets struggle to see the path ahead as confidence erodes and housing recovery looks unlikely before spring

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
November 3, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

As we begin to think about our 2026 forecasts, we (and the market) are challenged by the declining quality of information. Across geographies and sectors, both the quantity and quality of stats have been deteriorating over the past few years, reducing the market’s ability to understand the present context and the future outlook. …At the same time, the need for quality and timely stats is greater than ever. The full impact of seismic changes in global free and fair trade is still unfolding. Commercial pivots take time given pre-tariff inventory builds, contracts, and buyer familiarity and preference. …Producers also lack confidence, impacting the willingness to invest in (or close) assets that drive our supply/demand models. Finally, we worry about investor confidence, as assessing an appropriate risk-weighted return is much more difficult in the current environment.

As a result of the ongoing US government shutdown, much of the regular housing data (starts, permits, etc.) have not been published this month, meaning that we are flying blind, to an extent, in terms of US housing analysis. However, based upon recent solid-wood pricing trends and commentary from industry contacts, there is little to suggest that the US housing market has shown any improvement in the past few weeks. With a seasonally slower period for housing demand and homebuilding activity approaching very quickly, we are unlikely to see any marked improvement in US housing before next spring (at the earliest). …While the US housing market may see some minor tailwinds from improving affordability over the coming months, that boost to housing (and wood products) demand could be more than offset by the negative impacts of the ongoing government shutdown.

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Business & Politics

Trade Concerns Still Dominate

Forest Products Association of Canada
November 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada

Forest Products Association of Canada put forward 19 practical recommendations for Budget 2025 focusing on three areas where immediate federal action can make a tangible difference: Smarter regulation to improve competitiveness; Clear signals to improve investment confidence; and Stronger trade and market access measures to protect Canadian jobs. …Hundreds of rural and northern communities depend on a strong forest sector. The Government of Canada’s $1.25 billion softwood package is welcome support for the immediate term, but finding a path to a more certain trading arrangement with the United States remains the Canadian forest sector’s top priority. …The inclusion of Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) for biomass projects in Budget 2025 is a welcome, long-overdue step for Canada’s forest sector. …With the right tax measures in place, these projects can modernize mill operations, sustain and grow jobs in rural and northern communities, and strengthen Canada’s position as a secure producer of renewable energy.

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What do 45% tariffs mean for B.C.’s forestry sector?

By Dan Burritt
CBC News
November 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada West

The U.S. slapped a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber on top of a 35 per cent tariff that was already in place. As a result, B.C.’s forestry industry, which employs tens of thousands of workers, is facing dire conditions, with ongoing cuts and closures at mills and forestry companies around the province. Harry Nelson, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia’s forestry faculty speaks to CBC’s Dan Burritt, explaining what these tariffs mean for B.C.’s forestry sector.

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Bailey says Ottawa must support B.C. forestry as it supports Ontario’s car industry

By Wolfgang Depner
The Canadian Press in the Times-Colonist
November 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Brenda Bailey

British Columbia’s finance minister said she thinks the newly announced federal budget aligns with provincial priorities, but is calling on Ottawa to follow through on supporting forestry and the North Coast Transmission Line. Brenda Bailey said B.C. expects the federal government to support workers in the softwood lumber industry, which is now facing what she calls “extraordinary” duties and tariffs of up to more than 45%. …Bailey’s comments come after an emergency meeting on softwood lumber earlier this week between Premier David Eby and Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister responsible for Canada-US trade, among others. Both Victoria and Ottawa have subsequently agreed to creating a working group to support the industry. …The Forest Products Association of Canada said the federal government must find more certain trading arrangements with the US. President Derek Nighbor said that “lumber must remain a priority at the negotiating table.”

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Mining, forestry industries in N.B. could benefit from federal budget

By Sam Farley
CBC News
November 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Derek Nighbor

New Brunswick industry is likely to get a boost from the federal budget… New Brunswick’s forestry sector … stands to benefit from the federal budget, said Derek Nighbor, president of the Forest Products Association of Canada. While the main priority is a trade deal with the United States, Nighbor said a second priority “is ensuring that in the interim, our …businesses are protected through backstop funding programs.” …Nighbor said New Brunswick forestry hasn’t seen the layoffs that the industry has in British Columbia and Quebec. “That said, at a 45 per cent duty tariff combination, if this continues to drag, we will see impacts in New Brunswick.” Recently, New Brunswick Natural Resources Minister John Herron said he would support a cap on softwood to secure a tariff deal with the US… When asked about this, Nighbor said “we need creative ideas at the fingertips of negotiators to try to get us to the right place.”

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New Brunswick premier eyes federal budget for more softwood lumber supports, strategies

By Laura Brown
CTV News
November 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Susan Holt

New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt says a working group between BC and Ottawa sparked to support the forest industry was an initiative by BC, and that NB has its own strategy. The working group was announced in Vancouver, a promise by Ottawa to find ways to help an industry that’s been heavily impacted by tariffs. “Obviously, softwood lumber continues to be something that we have been raising with the Americans,” said Dominic LeBlanc, Minister responsible for Canada-US trade. …Holt told reporters Tuesday she’s expecting to hear about further support for the industry in the coming weeks, that will include N.B. “New Brunswick has been advocating for support on softwood lumber and engaging with our industry to talk about what they need specifically and pushing the federal government to provide solutions and meet our needs here, in New Brunswick,” she said. The industry employs over 24,000 people in the province.

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Supreme Court enters the lion’s den on Trump tariffs

By Nina Totenberg
National Public Radio
November 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

The Supreme Court hears arguments Wednesday in a consequential case with potentially profound economic consequences for the country and the presidency: The issue is tariffs. Oral arguments in the case are set for 10 a.m. ET. …The up and down, fluctuating tariffs around the world spooked American businesses, prompting a court challenge, contending that the president had exceeded his authority in imposing the tariffs. In some two dozen previous cases, the Supreme Court has been largely receptive to Trump’s claims of presidential authority, but those victories came on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket, allowing Trump policies to take effect on a temporary basis while the litigation played out in the lower courts. In contrast, the tariff cases are the real deal, with the court having ordered full briefing and expedited arguments in the case, and offering the justices the first real opportunity to say “no” to the president.

In related coverage:

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Weyerhaeuser to Use $102 Million From Municipal Bond Sale for Arkansas Project

By Patrick Sheridan
Morningstar
November 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: US East

Weyerhaeuser will use $102 million of proceeds from a municipal bond sale to help finance the construction of solid waste disposal facilities at its engineered wood plant in Arkansas. The Resource Recovery Revenue Bonds Series 2025 will be sold by the Arkansas Development Finance Authority, which will then lend the money to the timber and forest products company. …The bonds are special and limited revenue obligations of the issuer. Weyerhaeuser will use the money to help finance a portion of the costs of the acquisition, construction, equipping and installation of solid waste disposal facilities at its TimberStrand plant under construction near the city of Monticello in Drew County. Proceeds will also be used to pay the costs of bond issuance. TimberStrand is a brand name for a type of engineered wood product called laminated strand lumber and is manufactured by Weyerhaeuser. 

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Finance & Economics

Lumber Futures Steady Around $540

Trading Economics
November 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.

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Western Forest Products reports Q3, 2025 net loss of $61 million

Western Forest Products
November 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Vancouver, BC — Western Forest Products Inc. reported Adjusted EBITDA of negative $65.9 million in the third quarter of 2025, which included a non-cash export duty expense of $59.5 million related to the determination of final duty rates from the sixth Administrative Review. In comparison, the Company reported Adjusted EBITDA of negative $10.7 million in the third quarter of 2024, which included a $1.0 million export duty recovery related to the determination of final duty rates from the fifth AR, and Adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million in the second quarter of 2025. Net loss was $61.3 million in the third quarter of 2025, as compared to a net loss of $19.6 million in the third quarter of 2024, and net loss of $17.4 million in the second quarter of 2025.

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Stella-Jones reports Q3, 2025 net income of $88 million

Stella-Jones Inc.
November 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

MONTREAL, Quebec – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $958 million, up 5% from Q3 2024; Operating income of $135 million, up 4% from Q3 2024; EBITDA of $171 million, or 17.8% margin, up 6% from Q3 2024; and Net Income of $88 million, up 10% from Q3, 2024. …“Stella-Jones achieved another solid performance in the third quarter, supported by volume improvements, robust margins, improved cash flow and a strong balance sheet,” said Eric Vachon, CEO. …The increase in pressure-treated wood sales resulted from an increase in utility poles and industrial products volumes and higher pricing for railway ties and residential lumber. This was partially offset by lower pricing for utility poles. Logs and lumber sales decreased by $14 million or 47%, mainly driven by lower logs activity.

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PotlatchDeltic reports Q3, 2025 net income of $26 million

PotlatchDeltic Corporation
November 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

SPOKANE, Washington — PotlatchDeltic reported net income of $25.9 million on revenues of $314.2 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Excluding after-tax special items, including merger-related expenses, adjusted net income was $27.8 million for the third quarter of 2025. Net income was $3.3 million on revenues of $255.1 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024. …”We are pleased with the strong operational performance across all business segments during the third quarter,” said Eric Cremers, CEO. “Our Wood Products segment delivered disciplined cost management, positioning the division to capitalize when market conditions improve. Looking ahead, we remain focused on completing the pending merger with Rayonier – a transformative transaction expected to close in late first quarter or early second quarter 2026. 

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Bluelinx reports Q3, 2025 net income of $1.7 million

Bluelinx Holdings Inc.
November 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

ATLANTA — BlueLinx reported financial results for the three fiscal months ended September 27, 2025. Highlights include: Net sales of $749 million; Gross profit of $108 million; Net income of $1.7 million; Adjusted EBITDA of $22.4 million, or 3.0% of net sales, which includes expense of $2.2 million related to adjustments for import duty items for prior periods; and On November 3, 2025, announced the acquisition of Disdero Lumber Company. Shyam Reddy, CEO, said “Structural products benefited from a year-over-year increase in lumber prices, although panel pricing continued to see pressure during the quarter. In addition, the acquisition of Disdero Lumber Company will significantly boost our presence in premium specialty products categories.”

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

A Pavilion for Renewal: Canadian Wood in the Heart of Beijing

By Lance Tao
Canada Wood Group
November 3, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, International

In Beijing’s historic Dongcheng District, a modest wooden pavilion stood out among glass, steel, and concrete. Built entirely of Canadian hemlock, the 40 square metre structure was the only all wood exhibit at the 2025 Beijing Urban Renewal Week. After two decades of rapid real estate expansion, China’s property cycle has reached maturity. The focus of development is now turning from new construction to urban renewal. This new focus aims to revitalize existing neighbourhoods, improve livability, and reduce carbon emissions. In Beijing, where the central districts of Dongcheng and Xicheng are tasked with preserving centuries old architecture along the imperial axis, renewal is as much about cultural continuity as it is about climate performance. Under this new paradigm, materials matter. Sustainably sourced wood offers both aesthetic warmth and environmental advantage. … Recognizing this shift, FII China and Canada Wood, has positioned wood construction as a natural fit for China’s dual carbon and high quality development goals. 

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UBC Okanagan researchers apply body preservation technique to wood

By Patty Wellborn
UBC Okanagan News
November 5, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada West

A technique used for the long-term preservation of human and animal remains is now being tested on Western red cedar. Plastination, originally designed to embalm the dead, is now being used to improve the functionality and durability of advanced composite materials. A team from UBC Okanagan’s School of Engineering has been experimenting with the technique and published a study that examined the plastination of bamboo to create a strong and durable composite building material. Taking that work one step further, their latest study demonstrated the technique can also be used on Western red cedar to make it stronger and protect the wood from water damage and decay. The study was published in the journal Materials. …Plastination is a new method for managing moisture in wood by replacing water in the cellular structure with a silicone compound to create a durable, hydrophobic barrier that resists swelling, rotting and cracking.

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Province supporting North Bay rec centre with $2 million

Northern Ontario Business
November 4, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada East

©EllisDon

The province is providing $2 million toward the construction of North Bay’s new recreation and community centre, which is currently underway. EllisDon broke ground on the $63-million project in December 2024 and construction is expected to be complete in August 2026. …The build is one of the first full-sized rec centres in Canada to meet Zero Carbon Building Standards as set out by the Canada Green Building Council. Its prominent use of nail-laminated wood caught the attention of WoodWorks and the Canadian Wood Council, when representatives from the organizations visited the site in October.

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Forestry

Liberals scrapping 2 billion trees target as part of budget: sources

By Darren Major
CBC News
November 3, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada

The Liberal government is dropping its goal to plant two billion trees by 2031 as part of Tuesday’s budget, according to sources familiar with the matter. The government currently has contracts that they intend to fulfil to plant one billion trees, one source said. The news was first reported by the Globe and Mail. Prime Minister Mark Carney said last month that the budget will include a “climate competitiveness strategy.” But this is another key Trudeau-era climate policy that Carney has dropped since becoming leader, after ending the consumer carbon tax and pushing back the electric-vehicle sales mandate. …The government has struggled to keep up with the commitment, missing its annual planting targets in the past two years. Over 228 million trees have been planted so far, according to Natural Resources Canada’s latest update — leaving more than 1.7 billion in order to reach the target by 2030-31.

Additional coverage from the Canadian Tree Nursery Association: Federal Tree Planting Deserves Major Project Status Not Cuts

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Job protection means status quo for B.C.’s private forestland: Parmar

Today in BC – Black Press
November 4, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada West

Local governments are frustrated after receiving a long-awaited answer to when legislative changes are coming to the law governing how some forest lands are managed in B.C. The answer: with the trade war targeting B.C. lumber, the priority is protecting forestry jobs. …The 2003 Private Managed Forest Land (PMFL) Act puts no limit on the volume of timber that can be harvested, contrary to logging on Crown land. It’s administered by the Private Managed Forest Council, two of the five members of which have active vested interest in PMFLs. …The ministry maintains modernization to the act is being considered. In July… CBC reported the ministry is “working to modernize the act following the 2019 review.” When asked what changed between July and August, the ministry repeated it “continues to work with the Private Forest Landowners Association and the Managed Forest Council to modernize the Private Managed Forest Land Program.”

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Coastal 2025 Wildfire Season Underscores the Importance of Mitigation

Mosaic Forest Management
November 3, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada West

NANAIMO, BC: Following Vancouver Island’s devastating wildfire season, Mosaic is focusing on ways it can help reduce the chances of fires starting or limit their damage. Mosaic responded to 34 wildfires in 2025—a 19% increase over the previous year’s 26 fires. This year, all five of the most significant blazes were human-caused. The first concerning fire ignited near Campbell River in early May, making 2025 one of the earliest wildfire starts for the company. The Mount Underwood wildfire near Port Alberni burned almost 2,400 hectares of Mosaic lands—roughly the size of the city of Duncan—destroying new forests and conserved old growth while causing community evacuations and road closures. Throughout the season, Mosaic’s fire crews worked with BC Wildfire Service, contractors, First Nations and emergency responders to protect communities and forests. 

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Wildfires burned nearly 6,000 square km in Ontario this year: ministry

The Canadian Press in CBC News
November 3, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada East

The Ministry of Natural Resources says nearly 6,000 square kilometres burned in Ontario this wildfire season, much more than last year and well above the province’s 10-year average. The ministry says 643 wildfires were recorded between April and October, with 597,654 hectares — or just over 5,976 square kilometres — burned. The province says 480 fires burned nearly 900 square kilometres in 2024, and the 10-year average for Ontario is 712 fires and about 2,100 square kilometres burned. Figures released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre in August showed that Canada’s 2025 wildfire season was the second-worst on record. Those figures suggested the fires tore through 72,000 square kilometres, an area roughly the size of New Brunswick. Scientists say that climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has made Canada’s fire seasons longer and more intense.

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Judge halts Montana Kootenai Forest logging project over road impact on grizzlies

By Micah Drew
The Daily Montanan
November 4, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: US West

A federal judge has halted a logging project in the Kootenai National Forest, saying the federal government failed to correctly analyze the impacts to grizzly bears. The Knotty Pine Project, a 10-year project that would have authorized 7,465 acres of prescribed burning and 2,593 acres of commercial harvest in the Cabinet-Yaak Mountains, has been in litigation since 2022. The Center for Biological Diversity led a coalition of environmental groups …in suing the U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, saying it could devastate the small group of grizzly bears that lives in the region due to increased roadwork. U.S. District Court Judge Dana Christensen granted a preliminary junction the following year, but issued his final ruling last week. …“High road densities in low elevation habitats may result in grizzly bear avoidance or displacement from important spring habitat and high mortality risks,” Christensen wrote.

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Study paints detailed picture of forest canopy damage caused by ‘heat dome’

By Oregon State University
EurekAlert
November 4, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

CORVALLIS, Ore. – A satellite imagery analysis shows that the 2021 “heat dome” scorched almost 5% of the forested area in western Oregon and western Washington, turning foliage in canopies from a healthy green to red or orange, sometimes within a matter of hours. Damage to foliage leads to a range of problems for trees including reduced photosynthesis and increased vulnerability to pests and disease, scientists at Oregon State University say. …The forest analysis showed that sun exposure, microclimate and aspect – the direction a slope faces – were factors that made some areas more sensitive to the heat dome. Other factors were tree species, stand age, the timing and pattern of budburst – when dormant buds open and begin to grow – and the presence of foliar pathogens such as the fungus that causes Swiss needle cast in Douglas-fir trees.

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Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation koala population estimates triple, but conservationists cast doubt on figures

By Claire Simmonds
ABC News, Australia
November 4, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: International

Koala advocates and logging supporters have seized on the release of data showing koala population estimates tripled in the last three years. The CSIRO developed the National Koala Monitoring Program in collaboration with 50 partners, including states and universities. In 2023, when the first estimate was released, between 287,830 and 628,010 koalas were believed to live in Australia. Now CSIRO scientists estimate the population could number from 729,000 to 918,000. …Among those highlighting the data is the MP for the New South Wales Mid North Coast seat of Oxley, Michael Kemp, who says the public has been “misled for decades over koala numbers”. …But Australian Koala Foundation chair Deborah Tabart said the CSIRO figures were “categorically wrong” and that field studies indicated that the national koala population was much smaller. …University of Sydney biologist Mathew Crowther said the “big jump in numbers” could be attributed to “more surveys and better techniques”.

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

EU Agrees Weakened Climate Target in Final-Hour Deal for COP30

By Kate Abnett, Inti Landauro and Benoit Van Overstraeten
Reuters in Insurance Journal
November 5, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: International

EU climate ministers agreed a 2040 climate change target in the early hours of Wednesday after watering down the goal in last-minute negotiations, as they raced to clinch the deal before the UN COP30 summit in Brazil. Climate ministers from European Union countries approved in a public vote a compromise to cut emissions 90% by 2040, from 1990 levels, but with flexibilities to weaken this aim. The weakened target would let countries buy foreign carbon credits to cover up to 5% of the 90% emissions-cutting goal. That would effectively weaken to 85% the emissions cuts required from European industries, and pay foreign countries to cut emissions on Europe’s behalf to make up the rest. The EU also agreed to consider the option, in future, to use international carbon credits to meet a further 5%. Additionally, countries agreed a 2035 target to cut emissions in a range of 66.25-72.5%. The UN asked all governments to submit 2035 climate plans before COP30 opens Thursday.

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