Port negotiations are set to resume in BC (as log exports are blocked), and Montreal calls on Ottawa to end the strike (as employers table their final offer). In related news: Alberta and Georgia look to expand wood markets; Europe debates duties on Chinese hardwoods; and the US cut its interest rate, as Canada ponders what’s next on rates. Meanwhile, Canadian pontifications on Trump’s win:
- Jack Mintz: we should fight back with pro-growth policies of our own
- Derrick Penner: BC businesses stare down risks of tariff threats
- CBC News: Feelings of angst in New Brunswick business after Trump win
- Andrew Kurjata: Canadian lumber helped US production grow while BC suffers
- John Rustad: Second Trump administration could bring benefits to BC
In other News: Canada is falling behind on its emission targets; tree planting in the Arctic may accelerate climate change; and wildfire risk reduction efforts in Oregon, Arizona, Alberta and Williams Like, BC and Nelson, BC.
Finally, as Remembrance Day nears, tributes from North and South of the 49th.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
In a way, the stock market’s vote of confidence was surprising: Trump’s economic platform is a mix bag. Tax relief and deregulation are popular with investors, but trade-disrupting tariffs and budget-busting deficits could push up interest rates down the road. For Canadians, however, the Trump bag is not so mixed: new economic threats from Trump’s America are clearly on their way. …A lower corporate income tax rate, deregulation and energy renewal will be magnets for investment from Canada. Tariff policy and a review of NAFTA 2.0 would be especially harmful as we would be shut out of U.S. markets. Given nationalistic economic leanings on both sides of the aisle in Congress, we should expect more not fewer trade restrictions in the next four years. What should we do? Two things. Create a new growth agenda and work hard to protect our access to the huge U.S. market. 
VANCOUVER — Talks are set to resume between the union representing more than 700 locked-out British Columbia port supervisors and their employers. A representative for the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 said they have been ordered back to the table with the BC Maritime Employers Association and federal mediators on Saturday at 5 p.m. and that Sunday and Monday have been set aside for talks to continue if necessary. …Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon had earlier Thursday criticized a lack of progress in talks to end the dispute, as well as a dockworkers strike at the Port of Montreal, saying there had been a “concerning lack of urgency.” …MacKinnon said he was “closely monitoring” bargaining in the disputes in B.C. and Montreal, which he described as “progressing at an insufficient pace.”
As many Canadian businesses are looking anxiously to what a Donald Trump presidency — and his promise of increased tariffs on imported goods — could mean for their bottom line, those working in B.C.’s lumber industry already have a sense of the impact: lost jobs, devastated towns and an uncertain future. …Canadian softwood lumber sold in America is already hit by duties that doubled under Biden’s presidency and are forecast to double again in 2025. Meanwhile, production in the United States has increased, bringing with it new jobs and investment — sometimes funded by the same companies that are closing up shop in Canada. …Also top of mind are protectionist measures taken by the United States making it more difficult for softwood produced in Canada to be sold across the border. …Both Canfor and West Fraser … now operate more mills in the United States than in Canada as they shut down or curtail operations at home.
In a significant development for the European plywood industry, the Greenwood Consortium has filed an anti-dumping complaint against Chinese hardwood plywood imports, citing low pricing as a threat to the EU’s plywood sector. This move has sparked an industry-wide debate, dividing opinions between those advocating for industry protection and those concerned about the potential impact on trade, imports, and European consumers. The Greenwood Consortium, a newly established coalition of nine European plywood producers, initially aimed to curb illegal imports of Russian birch plywood entering Europe via China. However, the scope of its campaign has since expanded to include all Chinese hardwood plywood, alleging that these imports are unfairly priced and harm the European industry. …In response, the Plywood Trade Interest Alliance… opposes a broad ban on Chinese plywood, arguing that such restrictions would harm the EU economy, compromise supply chain stability, and strain relations with China.
ALBERTA – Minister of Forestry and Parks Todd Loewen will be travelling to Japan with a delegation of forest companies on Nov. 8, in an effort to expand market opportunities for Alberta’s forestry products. Provincial officials say Japan is Alberta’s top market for wood pellet exports and the second-largest market for lumber and wood panels. This mission is expected to give Loewen an opportunity to support Alberta’s forestry product manufacturers as they grow sales, trade and investment. …From Nov. 8-15, Minister Loewen and the delegation, including the Alberta Forest Products Association, the Canada Wood Group and the Wood Pellet Association of Canada, will attend the Council of Forest Industries Tokyo office’s 50th Anniversary Wood Forum. While there, the delegation will visit the Canadian Ambassador and meet with Japanese trading partners, as well as current and potential investors.
Experts say Donald Trump’s election victory could shift interest rate policy in the U.S. as his promised policies risk higher inflation, which could ultimately have implications for Canadian rates and the loonie. Among those promises are large tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, as well as lower tax rates and lighter regulation. Trump has promised that “inflation will vanish completely.” But some have raised concern that his economic policies could actually put upward pressure on inflation, and in turn, slow the pace of interest rate cuts expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. …Higher inflation would mean the U.S. Federal Reserve could be slower to cut interest rates, and markets are already shifting their bets on how low the central bank is likely to go on rates. …That would make the Bank of Canada more hesitant about cutting rates too quickly,” said Sheila Block, an economist.
The City of Nelson is piloting a new remote-controlled technology to reduce wildfire fuels west of Gyro Park. The area, which has been identified as a high-risk location for fuel mitigation, has a steep slope and is challenging to access. The pilot project is necessary because it would be unfeasible and inefficient to use larger conventional chipping equipment on the complex terrain at Gyro Park. Conventional pile-and-burn techniques were also deemed inappropriate in the majority of the area due to the potential for smoke generation in close proximity to Kootenay Lake Hospital. The small-scale forestry machine the city is piloting is capable of accessing steep terrain, chipping woody materials in place and transporting the chips out of the treatment area for disposal off site.
Canada’s plan to reduce planet warming emissions is “overoptimistic” and is moving “too slowly” to meet its targets, the country’s environment commissioner has warned in a new report. Of the 20 carbon reduction measures audited by Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Jerry DeMarco, only nine were found to be on track. Another nine faced challenges, while two faced “significant barriers.” …The audited emissions plan did not include emissions from land-use change and forestry. A March 2023 audit from the commissioner found the federal government had failed to properly account for emissions from the country’s forestry sector. …The latest audit called out two ministries — Natural Resources Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada — for failing to follow through on those recommendations and still not properly reporting logging emissions. Michael Polanyi, a policy and campaign manager for Nature Canada, said the commissioner’s criticisms line up with research his group has commissioned.
For the second year in a row, Earth will almost certainly be the hottest it’s ever been. Meanwhile, Canada’s environment commissioner says the country is still not on track to meet its commitments under the Paris climate agreement. Ottawa has promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to be 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 but thus far they have only fallen seven per cent below 2005 levels. In a report tabled today Jerry DeMarco says his office looked at 20 of the 149 measures from the government’s 2030 Emission Reductions Plan progress report. Only nine of those were on track, another nine were facing challenges, and the other two had significant barriers like delays in meeting milestones. The latest report mirrors many of the findings and concerns DeMarco raised a year ago. However he found the government had moved on the majority of recommendations made in last year’s report.
