From a supply perspective, the construction sector is vulnerable to President Trump’s immigration controls. …In an environment of falling numbers of American-born workers, this may mean labour supply is constrained in some key sectors including construction, agriculture and leisure & hospitality, which have relatively large immigrant workforces. …As such there is the threat of a perfect storm for US home builders – rising raw material costs, potential worker shortages boosting pay rates with demand constrained by high mortgage rates. In this environment, we see housing starts, which hit a 15-year high of 1.6m in 2021 before falling to 1.55m in 2022, 1.42m in 2023 and 1.36m in 2024 dropping to 1.275m in 2025 and staying at a similar level in 2026 before rising to 1.35m in 2027. …Canada is vulnerable to a painful trade war with the US. …While not introduced yet, the uncertainty that this generates will mean non-residential projects are put on hold.