North American lumber producers face a multi-layered challenge as permanent capacity closures, steeply rising Canadian duties, and potentially transformative Section 232 tariffs converge to create what could be the most disruptive trade environment since the Smoot-Hawley era. These shifts are occurring while the market continues to work through post-pandemic demand recalibration, with consumption still approximately 9% below COVID-era peaks. …The US South’s position as the low-cost producing region continues to drive structural shifts in North American lumber production. Southern Yellow Pine’s share of total production has increased steadily, a trend that will accelerate under current trade conditions. …However, this “pivot to pine” hasn’t been frictionless. The post-pandemic market has seen Southern Yellow Pine trading at unprecedented discounts to Western SPF, frequently reaching $150-$200 per thousand board feet. These discounts reflect both the challenges in species substitution and the supply imbalance created by a decade of capacity expansion in the South coinciding with post-pandemic demand recalibration.