The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8 (2016=100), after no change in May. As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024 “The US LEI fell further in June,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board. “For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month.