The COFI Day 1 luncheon panel on Canada–US relations and forest products trade brought together political veterans and policy thinkers to unpack the next four years of cross-border dynamics and what they mean for British Columbia’s forest sector. Moderated by Corinne Stavness, Vice President of Corporate Affairs at Western Forest Products, the discussion featured Glen Clark, Chair of BC Hydro and former Premier of BC; James Moore, Senior Advisor with Edelman and former federal Industry Minister; and Mark Cameron, Fellow at the Public Policy Forum and leader of its Canada–US Relations Strategy.

Clark opened with a clear warning about the US election. “We are entering a period of maximum unpredictability,” he said. With former President Donald Trump back in office, Clark said BC and Canada must brace for more aggressive trade policy and protectionism. He cautioned against thinking the current tariff dispute is a one-off. “This is not about softwood lumber anymore. This is about economic nationalism.” He also commented on the broader political atmosphere fueling trade tensions: “We’re living in a time of political tribalism. That makes rational trade policy hard to sustain.” Clark urged Canadian leaders to move past reliance on the dispute settlement system, which he said has proven ineffective. “We’ve won every case and we still have duties,” he said. “That tells you something.” He called for a more strategic approach: diversifying markets, building relationships with US governors and legislators, and recognizing the political motivations behind protectionist policies. “This is not rational,” he said. “This is about power.”

James Moore echoed Clark’s concerns and stressed that Canada must shift from reacting to shaping outcomes. “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” he said. Moore emphasized the importance of building allies within the US system, including business leaders, congressional delegations, and industry associations. He warned that trade relationships are being redefined around security and industrial policy, not economics. “Everything is being viewed through a national security lens,” he said. “And Canada is not exempt.” Moore said the forest sector must adapt to this new framing and position itself accordingly. “If we’re seen as part of the solution to housing and affordability in the US, we’ll have leverage,” he said. He also noted that Canada’s carbon advantage could be a strategic asset if communicated effectively. “We have to tell our story better,” he said. “And we have to tell it where it matters.” He was candid about Canada’s reactive posture in trade disputes: “We’re great at responding. We’re not great at initiating.” He added, “We keep celebrating legal victories while bleeding jobs.”

Mark Cameron provided a broader policy context, noting the bipartisan consensus around economic nationalism is unlikely to shift. “Both parties are protectionist now,” he said. “The difference is in tone, not substance.” Cameron warned that Canada risks being sidelined unless it aligns with US priorities. He cited the Inflation Reduction Act and Buy America provisions as examples of the US reshaping supply chains around domestic production. “If we don’t show how we help them achieve their goals, we’re going to be left out,” he said. He suggested that Canada lean into joint climate goals and supply chain integration, particularly around low-carbon products. “We need to go from being a trading partner to a strategic partner,” he said. “That means aligning our story with theirs.”

The panel also reflected on past efforts and current limitations. Clark said the traditional approach of relying on federal advocacy and legal victories has hit a wall. “It’s not working,” he said. “We need a provincial strategy that goes beyond Ottawa.” He also credited some BC firms for stepping up: “Some of our companies are doing a great job. They’re in the capitals. They’re building relationships.” Moore agreed, calling for more active engagement by BC companies and officials at the state level. He emphasized the role of subnational diplomacy. “Most of the time, your problem is not Washington—it’s Des Moines,” he said. “You’ve got to be in the state capitols and chambers of commerce.” Cameron noted that BC and Canada could benefit from focusing on areas of mutual interest like wildfire resilience, Indigenous partnerships, and sustainable forest practices. These topics, he said, are increasingly relevant in US policy debates and could serve as bridge-builders. “There’s an appetite for cooperation,” he said. “We just have to show up and be relevant.”

Asked by Stavness how the forest sector should approach the next four years, the panelists returned to core themes of adaptation and assertiveness. Clark said BC must be clear-eyed about the stakes and prepared to act independently when necessary. “This is about economic sovereignty,” he said. “And it’s about fighting for our people.” Moore said the sector should focus on practical relationships, not political cycles. “Don’t bet everything on who wins the White House,” he said. “Bet on your ability to build long-term allies.” Cameron concluded by emphasizing narrative. “We can’t just be victims,” he said. “We need to be protagonists in our own story.”