The U.S.-Canada Trade War Could Mark a Breaking Point

By James Lindsay, Mary and Dvid Boies Senior Fellow
Council on Foreign Relations
September 16, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

WAHSINGTON — I read a poll earlier this month showing that 41% of Canadians see the US as “an enemy country.” The poll was conducted right after President Trump slapped 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian exports to the US. …I have no illusions that U.S.-Canada relations were idyllic before Trump took office. …But the recent turn in US-Canada relations feels different. Canada’s willingness to antagonize its far larger trading partner signals how much Canadians now fear that their economic integration with the United States was a major strategic mistake. Can the economic relationship between the two countries be repaired? …A conversation with Rohinton Medhora at McGill University… left me with three take aways. 1. Canadians are feeling frustration, anger, and trepidation. …2. Carney sees no political or strategic alternative to retaliating against the Trump tariffs. …3. Washington and Ottawa may find an off-ramp, but Canada will continue to reduce its vulnerability to US economic pressure.

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