A new outlook report, Softwood Lumber – Tariffs, Turbulence and New Trade Flows to 2030… points to a decade defined by structural supply constraints, shifting trade routes, and rising pressure on producers, policymakers, and downstream users. The US has never produced enough softwood lumber to meet its own consumption needs, and that deficit is expected to persist through 2030. …In 2025, foreign producers are projected to meet nearly 30% of US softwood needs, close to the highest level in almost 20 years. Market realities do not support claims that the US can achieve self-sufficiency. …Even if capital were available, expansion would be limited by regional timber availability, workforce shortages, permitting delays, and delivered-cost disadvantages versus imported wood. Near-term US demand remains uncertain but long-term housing needs point to renewed growth late in the decade. New US tariffs taking effect in October 2025 are expected to reduce Canadian shipments and increase price volatility.