RBC Tissue Tracker: Production showing solid growth

By Paul Quinn, RBC Equity Analyst
RBC Capital Markets
July 4, 2022
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

US parent roll production increased +7.7% y/y – According to RISI, US parent roll production increased by 58k tons y/y to 815k tons, while tissue mill capacity was up 4k tons y/y to 872k tons, increasing the US industry operating rate to 93.5% vs. 87.2% last year. However, the US industry operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points m/m, as production increased by 20k tons m/m, while capacity increased by 28k tons m/m.

At-Home converted product shipments increased +6.8% y/y – According to RISI, at-home shipments increased by 35k tons y/y, with volumes of bathroom tissue and towel up y/y, while napkins and facial tissue slightly down compared to last year. In May, bathroom tissue shipments were up 8.5% y/y, towel shipments up 8.6% y/y, while facial tissue shipments were down 5.1% y/y, and napkin shipments down 2.9% y/y. Relative to April, at-home shipments increased by 1.1% (or by ~6k tons), as bathroom tissue was up 1.8% m/m, towel up 0.5% m/m, napkins up 3.0% m/m, while facial tissue down 2.6% m/m.

Away-from-Home (“AfH”) converted product shipments were up +2.0% y/y – AfH shipments posted an eleventh consecutive month of y/y gains. By category, bathroom tissue was up 2.2% y/y, towel up 2.9% y/y, napkins up 2.4% y/y, while facial tissue down 14.3% y/y. Relative to April, AfH shipments increased by 2.5% (or by ~6k tons), as bathroom tissue was up 2.2% m/m, towel up 1.9% m/m, napkins up 2.4% m/m, and facial tissue up 20.0% m/m.

Apparent consumption of converted tissue products increased by 6.1% y/y – According to RISI, apparent consumption increased by 6.1% y/y to 838k tons (~48k tons higher y/y), which is modestly higher compared to the 5.3% y/y increase in converted product shipments. Apparent consumption increased by 1.1% compared to April (or by ~9k tons).

Total US tissue exports increased by 15.1% y/y, while decreased 0.7% m/m in April – According to RISI, total tissue exports decreased by 0.3k tons m/m to 48.8k tons in April, with exports to Mexico down 3.4%, Canada up 20.9% and Other up 11.4% m/m. Compared to March, towel exports’ increased by 9.1% (or by ~1K tons), while all other product categories exports decreased m/m.

Total US tissue imports increased by 1.0% y/y, and increased 1.1% m/m in April – By country, tissue imports from Canada and China increased by 4.6% y/y and 43.9% y/y, respectively, while imports from Indonesia (-37.5% y/y), Mexico (-12.6% y/y) and Other (-44.8% y/y) declined substantially. By product, decreased parent roll (-29.2%) and bathroom tissue imports (-12.9% y/y) were offset by higher towel (4.9% y/y), and napkin (35.5% y/y) imports.

Tissue prices higher m/m – According to RISI, virgin parent roll prices increased by $38 m/m to $1,505/ton for low-quality rolls and by $34 m/m to $1,690/ton for high-quality rolls. RCF parent roll prices increased by $6 m/m to $1,215/ton for low-quality rolls and by $5 m/m to $1,328/ton for high-quality rolls.

Suzano plans to build a tissue paper mill in Aracruz – According to RISI, on June 30, Suzano announced its plans to build a tissue paper mill and conversion plant in the city of Aracruz, in Brazil’s southeastern Espirito Santo state. The company expects a new tissue paper mill and conversion plant to add a production capacity of 60,000 tonnes/yr 

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