David Elstone

On August 25, 2026, Canada announced counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on targeted US products in response to the US decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. Canada’s counter-tariffs will apply to 874 product classifications, covering a matching $27.6 billion in imports from the US, with a focus on steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The retaliation marks the start of a full-scale trade war, with Canadian tariffs taking effect on September 8. …The Canadian counter-tariffs will apply to US softwood lumber, plywood, dissolving pulp, paper and packaging products—including toilet paper—kitchen cabinets, upholstered furniture and non-upholstered furniture. AcrossCanada, I estimate these US forest product imports had a value of $3.2 billion in 2025. For US forest products entering BC, I estimate their 2025 import value was $527 million.

It makes sense that paper and packaging products are a clear focus of Canadian countermeasures. Counter-tariffs targeting $2.4 billion of US paper and packaging products will cause concern. …Canada has fired back, but in a trade war, the forest sector still gets caught in the crossfire. Counter-tariffs are retaliation, not a defensive strategy that protects domestic producers from the impacts of tariffs on their export sales. The consequences are already emerging with Rayonier Advanced Materials announcing a temporary mill closure affecting its dissolving pulp production in Temiscaming, Ontario. Also there are reports Nova Scotia’s pine sawmills are facing shutdowns. Unfortunately, this is likely only the beginning.