Kelly McCloskey

At Tree Frog News, our mission is to curate and share news relevant to the North American forest sector, giving our readers the insights they need to respond to current challenges. While we don’t write the news, we occasionally seek out content not normally covered by mainstream media. For example, in August 2024, we reached out to political risk management expert Robert McKellar at Harmattan Risk for comment on the increasing pace of change in the forest sector, shaped by political forces and government intervention. Robert’s op-ed offered a thoughtful analysis of how inherent political risks—especially those linked to Canada–US trade friction—could rapidly unsettle an industry long reliant on stability. At the time, Trump’s potential political comeback was still largely speculative.

Robert’s analysis highlighted that political risk is not limited to volatile or exotic regions but is inherent in every business environment—even in sectors traditionally seen as “safe.” He challenged the assumption that the US market is an enduring safe haven for Canadian exports, warning that rising protectionist rhetoric and sudden policy shifts could expose firms to disruptive events like unexpected tariff impositions. Moreover, he stressed that political risk management should be an integral part of a company’s strategic framework through ongoing intelligence gathering, senior leadership involvement, and proactive contingency planning. Ignoring these risks, he cautioned, could force companies into costly, reactive measures. Finally, Robert argued that political risk is not merely a challenge to be managed—it can also drive strategic change. Confronting these risks head-on offers firms an opportunity to diversify markets, reconfigure supply chains, and bolster long-term resilience.

Since that op-ed, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Trump’s re-emergence is no longer a remote possibility but a concrete reality that has intensified uncertainty across the sector. With these developments in mind, we reconnected with Robert to update his analysis and explore how the risks he foresaw have become even more pronounced. The following Q&A with Robert McKellar, principal at Harmattan Risk, distills various communications for clarity. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]