Kelly McCloskey

Robert McKellar

Earlier this year, Tree Frog reached out to political risk expert Robert McKellar for a two-part op-ed, titled Trump’s Re-Emergence and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector. Robert set the stage by looking at Trump’s leadership style and his approach to business, and outlined how forest product companies can assess and manage political risk. He also highlighted four challenges facing Canadian producers: tariffs, duties, economic nationalist treatment of Canadian subsidiaries, and the impact of US-China trade tensions on lumber sales.

Since that series was published, many of those risks have materialized. The Trump administration has imposed the expected softwood lumber duties—higher than feared—and added a 10% Section 232 tariff. Combined, these measures amount to a staggering 45% levy on Canadian softwood exports. Meanwhile, lumber prices have remained low, production curtailments are mounting, and the sector is entering one of its most challenging periods in decades. While the Canadian government has provided interim support and is attempting to re-engage the US on a broader trade deal, lumber is not currently on the table. As a result, companies face not only a deepening financial crisis but a structural one.

With that context, we sought Robert’s perspective again—not as an extension of our earlier conversation, but as a fresh stock-taking and forward-looking reflection. His earlier analysis anticipated many of the outcomes now unfolding, and given what we now know—we asked him to weigh in on the core issues shaping the sector’s future and how Canadian companies can better prepare. In this new long-read feature, Robert addresses those questions head-on—offering his take on what may or may not change under the current US administration, the rise of protectionism and political risk south of the border, and the renewed China-US rift that continues to influence global markets. It’s a thoughtful, in-depth read for anyone trying to make sense of what comes next for Canada’s forest sector.