US Consumer Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran

The University of Michigan
March 16, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains. Gasoline prices have exerted the most immediate impact felt by consumers. …A broad swath of consumers across incomes, age, and political affiliation all reported declines in expectations for their personal finances, down 7.5% nationally. …This month, year-ahead inflation expectations ended six months of consecutive declines, stalling at 3.4%. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%. In 2024, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. 

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