WASHINGTON, DC – Single-family home sales likely bottomed out in Q4 2023 and, due to the recent pullback in mortgage rates, are expected to begin a slow but meaningful recovery over the course of the next year, alongside upward-trending mortgage origination activity, according to the December 2023 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Purchase mortgage applications have rebounded… however, the lock-in effect, and a lack of homes available for sale, will likely persist in 2024. As such, the ESR Group expects the home sales recovery to be meaningful but slow. The ESR Group also continues to forecast a modest downturn in 2024, followed by a return to growth in 2025. …While the likelihood of a soft landing has certainly improved over the last few months, engineering it while avoiding a resurgence in inflation will likely be a difficult task.