The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3% in March 2024 to 102.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2% in February. Over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.2%—a smaller decrease than the 3.4 percent decline over the previous six months. “February’s uptick in the U.S. LEI proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board. “Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline. The LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed. Overall, the Index points to a fragile—even if not recessionary—outlook for the U.S. economy. …The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to cool after the rapid expansion in the second half of 2023.