The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1% in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5% decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9% over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3% contraction over the previous six months. “The US LEI continues to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica. “Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. …Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”