US Leading Economic Indicator declines again in April, continues to warn of an economic downturn

The Conference Board
May 18, 2023
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.6% in April 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.2% in March. The LEI is down 4.4% over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022). “The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, at The Conference Board. “Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread—but less so than in March’s reading, which resulted in a smaller decline. Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April. Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”

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