US Lumber Market in Chaos

By Russ Taylor, Russ Taylor Global
Truck LoggerBC Magazine
September 29, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Occasionally, market chaos happens, and in August and September 2025 it was happening. BC and Canadian sawmills were facing weak lumber market demand, increased US import duties and plunging prices, with little upside evident in the short term. And it happened quickly. …One of the ongoing problems is that US lumber demand has been very flat since 2016 when it was 48.3 billion bf. The average US lumber consumption between 2016 and 2024 has been just 50 billion bf as compared to 50.5 billion bf in 2024. So, simply no growth .This is despite some 8 billion bf of new capacity constructed in the US South over that same period. …Going forward, sawmill curtailments in high-cost or negative margin regions will be the next phase of the current market cycle. As a result of these low lumber prices, I expect to see a lengthy list of sawmill curtailments, especially in the US South, Quebec and BC. 

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