David Elstone

To say that the BC forest industry has seen change over the past 20 years would be an understatement. There have been several editorials and analyses done quantifying how many mills have or will close; how many trees have been killed; and how many jobs have been lost. Interestingly, few have looked where the BC forest industry might end up as timber supply continues to decline. …In 2005, the forest industry was running on all cylinders with a Crown AAC of just under 86 million m3. …In the BC Interior, there were 14 veneer plants and 82 sawmills with a combined lumber production capacity of over 16 bbf operating, …On the coast, there were 3 veneer plants and 29 sawmills with a combined lumber production capacity of over 3 bbf operated. On the residual fibre/biomass side, the province had 16 pulp mills, 8 paper plants and the beginnings of pellet and biomass power businesses. The industry was flourishing with direct employment of close to 70,000 people.

When we look out to 2035, a full 30 years after the industry peak, the picture is sobering. Using a forecast for a province-wide Crown AAC of 38 million m3, only 33 or 40% of sawmills operating in the BC Interior in 2005 will remain and lumber production capacity will fall to a mere 38% of that peak. On the coast, 14 sawmills are expected to continue operating, with 56% of the capacity of 2005. On the pulp and paper side, more closures are forecast… with pulp capacity forecast to settle at 54% of that in 2005 with paper capacity at a mere 11%. For other forest products manufacturers there may be 10 veneer production facilities, 14 shake and shingle mills and potentially just a few specialty operations remaining. …Despite the ever-present prognostications of doom and gloom there are those still willing to invest in this province. Most recently, Canfor’s new state-of-the-art 350 million board feet sawmill in Houston. …The BC government wants more investment to transition the industry, and specifically to add more mass timber manufacturing. Unless a plan can be developed to cut short the current trends, a much smaller industry is forecast by 2035.