Canada continues to stare down the barrel of the American trade war. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement faces its first big review in 2026. This country remains in a uniquely high-stakes moment. …This will, and will always be, an uneven fight. Canada is 40 million people and only the world’s ninth largest economy. A middle power is going up against the world’s richest and most powerful country. How exactly is it even possible for Canada to win in this asymmetric trade war? Crucially, this conflict isn’t just about steel, soybeans or softwood lumber – it’s about narrative and power. …US President Trump frames trade deficits as proof that the US is “losing”:

• Give Trump some face-saving concessions that look like a win for him
• Use oil, Canada’s unique economic hard power
• Play defence: Reform our corporate tax regime
• Northern gambit: Arctic crisis for trade leverage

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