International Pulp Week 2025 opened in Vancouver with a note of celebration and reflection as delegates marked the event’s 20th anniversary. “After decades of being in Montreal in January… we decided to move the event to Vancouver and into the spring and summer months,” said Tim Brown, Vice-President at Numera Analytics. Over the years, Brown noted, the event has drawn participants from more than 50 countries and consistently focused on the industry’s most pressing challenges and opportunities. “It’s an industry that has innovated, adapted, and is one that itself is smarter and more sustainable.”
Following Brown’s welcome, he introduced Kevin Mason, Managing Director of ERA Forest Products Research, who returned to the IPW stage to reflect on two decades of transformation in the global pulp sector—and to look ahead. Mason began by charting the evolution of pulp demand by end use. “Roughly 20 years ago, graphic paper was the biggest end use,” he said, citing 2007 data showing it at 43% of chemical market pulp consumption. By contrast, tissue accounted for 25%, specialty papers 15%, fluff-based products 11%, and paper packaging 6%. In 2023, those proportions had changed dramatically: “We’ve seen graphic paper shrink… from 43% down to just 17%. It’s now kind of number three.” Tissue now leads at 43%, followed by specialty papers at 23%.
“The one thing that’s nice about tissue compared to some of the graphic paper sites is it’s pretty steady and predictable,” Mason said. “Generally you’ve got steady state demand growth there.” He estimated tissue-related market pulp demand has grown at about 6% annually since 2007, compared to 3% overall global growth in tissue consumption. “Fluff… hasn’t shown much growth over those past 20 or so years,” he noted. Mason pointed to multiple drivers behind the decline of graphic paper, referencing the rise of iPads, smartphones, and social media. He also highlighted contributing factors, including shifting consumer behaviour, the economic pressure on print publications, advances in technology, and the rise of online content creation.
On the other hand, he emphasized, tissue has emerged as the most stable and fastest-growing segment. A slide titled “The Rise of Tissue” pointed to population growth, rising hygiene awareness, economic development, and the expansion of institutional and commercial sectors—particularly in developing markets—as major contributors to demand. “In the mature markets, it’s kind of growing more with population, but in the developing markets, much faster than that,” Mason said.
On the supply side, Mason detailed the increasing dominance of hardwood pulp. “Twenty years ago they had a roughly 50-50 split between the two of them,” he said, referring to hardwood and softwood pulps. “Ninety-two percent of that growth over the last 20 years [has been] in hardwood grades.” Much of that shift, he said, traces back to demand in China. “China has been the big focus,” Mason said. “Back 20 years ago, 15% of total demand… now it’s gone up to roughly 40%.” In fact, he emphasized, “94% of that growth in demand over the last 20 years has come from China.” From an analyst’s perspective, he said, “What happens in China is just so important to the overall market.”
On the capacity side, Mason highlighted how Latin America has emerged as the key growth region for hardwood pulp. “More than 100% of that growth… has come from Latin America,” he said. “Apparently we’re not even near the end of that yet, with a lot of the projects still on the docket.” In contrast, North America’s global market share has declined sharply. “We used to be pretty big—about 40% of the world’s capacity,” Mason said. “Now we’ve seen that chopped in half.” He noted that absolute capacity in North America has dropped by roughly 20% as well. While Europe has seen a more modest reduction, “nothing like the 50% drop in the North American market share.” Meanwhile, Mason said, the Nordic countries are beginning to reassert their position, particularly in softwood. “You’re seeing ongoing investment and some growth there,” he said, pointing to a coming presentation from Metsä as an example. “Within that North American context… you see Canada taking it on the chin a little bit there, and that continues to be a bit of a challenge.”
Mason presented a summary slide highlighting four key developments that have defined the past two decades: “A dramatic rise in demand for market pulp from China… Chinese demand met by massive growth in hardwood capacity in Latin America… hardwood steadily gained share versus softwood… and tissue expanded while printing and writing papers contracted.” Looking ahead, Mason offered a cautiously analytical view of the future. One of the most significant trends to watch, he said, is China’s expanding domestic pulping capacity. “Initially, China had hundreds, if not thousands, of small mills… and they went through shutting a lot of the small, polluting, often non-wood pulp mills.” In recent years, however, China has rapidly built internal capacity, reducing its reliance on imports. “Even though there were some doubts… we have really seen a dramatic shift.” China’s pivot includes importing large volumes of wood chips from countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. “That has lessened some of the demand that we might have seen otherwise for imported pulp,” Mason said. “China’s still going to be very important going forward, but how that internal pulping capacity and how those factors develop will be a key thing to watch over the next 20 years.”
Mason projected the estimated end-use composition of pulp demand in 2040: tissue at 54%, specialty papers at 24%, packaging at 12%, fluff-based products at 7%, and graphic paper at 3%. He also shared a slide titled “Potential Developments Over the Next 20 Years,” listing several scenarios: continued expansion of domestic pulp capacity in China; hardwood gaining further share over softwood (though possibly nearing saturation); and the potential for dramatic growth in specialty papers and packaging—if government policy supports a shift away from plastics.
Drafted with the assistance of digital tools to streamline the process.