At International Pulp Week, delegates heard directly from two of the world’s largest pulp producers on the state of global fibre markets—one representing softwood, the other hardwood. Mikko Antsalo, Senior Vice President of Sales and Supply Chain at Metsä Fibre, and Leonardo Grimaldi, Executive Vice President of Global Pulp Sales at Suzano, shared contrasting perspectives on supply, demand, and market dynamics across the fibre spectrum.
Mikko Antsalo began by stating, “Softwood pulp markets are projected to remain well-balanced,” citing steady demand growth and the absence of new capacity announcements as stabilizing factors. He pointed to the technical age of existing mills, rising wood costs, and increasing sustainability requirements as key constraints on future supply. On the demand side, slower global economic growth and reshaped trade flows were flagged as risks, although “China’s resilience” remained a notable counterbalance.
Antsalo highlighted Metsä Fibre’s investments in modern, efficient capacity—particularly its bioproduct mills in Kemi and Äänekoski, which are entirely fossil-free. “We are ready to meet the upcoming sustainability requirements,” he said, noting that Metsä controls its entire wood value chain and can supply EU reference numbers for all pulp deliveries. He emphasized that Metsä’s operations are externally verified, with life cycle assessments and carbon footprint data available to customers.
Turning to logistics, Antsalo outlined the company’s breakbulk shipment system from Kemi and Rauma, with two entry ports on the US East Coast and additional service to Mobile and Green Bay. “We’ve optimized the supply chain for North American deliveries,” he explained, adding that the winter season in Green Bay requires advanced planning.
He concluded by reinforcing Metsä Fibre’s preparedness for the future: “We offer customers an optimized supply chain, fossil-free production, and are well positioned to fulfill upcoming sustainability requirements.”
Leonardo Grimaldi then shifted focus to hardwood, providing a global view of bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BHKP) markets from the perspective of Brazil-based Suzano. He began with a snapshot of Suzano’s scale—13.4 million tonnes of pulp capacity, serving over 100 countries, and the recent launch of the 2.55 million tonne Ribas do Rio Pardo mill. “The Ribas project has 65 kilometres from forest to mill, and generated 10,000 jobs at the peak of construction,” he said, calling it a key part of Suzano’s forestry business model.
Grimaldi noted that global BHKP demand is expected to grow by 4.8 million tonnes over five years, largely driven by Asian countries. “Chinese demand growth is led by tissue, especially in tier 2, 3 and 4 cities,” he said. Despite China’s demographic slowdown, he believes urbanization and GDP growth will continue to drive demand across Asia. He also addressed the wave of new Chinese integrated pulp and paper projects. “Several uncertain factors can determine the impact on market pulp demand,” Grimaldi cautioned, pointing to the risk of vertical integration displacing market pulp volumes. According to Suzano’s scenario, adjusted demand growth for BHKP could fall from 4.8 to 3.8 million tonnes when factoring in this verticalization trend.
Grimaldi projected that supply additions, including Suzano’s own Cerrado mill and other major projects in China, Indonesia, and Latin America, will put pressure on market balance. However, he noted that this is partially offset by capacity conversions—such as Bracell shifting to dissolving pulp and Suzano’s Limeira mill moving to fluff pulp. When commenting on how to “make the pie bigger,” Grimaldi pointed to fibre substitution as a key lever. “BHKP has been gaining market share in bleached chemical pulp grades,” he said, showing how its global share rose from 45% to 55% over the past decade. Between 2022 and 2024, the annual share gain exceeded one percentage point per year, outpacing the historical average.
He argued that higher technical age, wood availability challenges, and rising production costs are all pushing users toward hardwood. “Fiber to fiber is making the pie bigger,” he said, noting that even modest shifts in furnish ratios can translate to significant volume gains in the tissue, paperboard and specialty paper segments. Grimaldi closed by showing that BHKP demand-to-capacity ratios are projected to remain under pressure through 2028, but may improve through a combination of fibre substitution, fossil-to-fibre applications, and unexpected supply shortages.
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