At International Pulp Week, Mathieu Wener, Senior Economist at Numera Analytics provided a detailed overview of current trends in key end-use markets for pulp, with a particular focus on tissue and printing and writing papers. Drawing on recent data and modelling, he examined how these sectors have evolved post-pandemic, what is driving demand patterns today, and what may lie ahead. Wener began with tissue markets, where profitability has remained strong despite considerable cost pressures in recent years. “Producers passed through rising costs since 2022,” he noted, showing how eurozone parent roll and pulp prices had shifted over that period. Although price differentials between pulp and tissue had narrowed, margins remained healthy. “Profitability remains near recent highs,” Wener said, with EBIT margins among major producers such as P&G, Essity and Metsa holding up well through 2024 and into 2025.

Turning to demand, Wener reported that global tissue growth had moderated somewhat. “Global tissue demand growth slowed in Q1,” he said, citing year-over-year growth of 1.9 percent versus a longer-term average of 2.5 to 3.3 percent. North America stood out with stronger growth, adding that “demand growth has remained very strong” in the region. In fact, he noted that “volumes now appear to exceed the long-term trend” for North American tissue demand, buoyed in part by robust US consumer spending. Imports, however, have also surged. “North American tissue imports have surged to record high levels,” Wener noted, adding that “much of the imports will be subject to tariffs” as the US imposes new duties on key supplying countries.

This spending strength was linked to a broader economic backdrop. “Helped in large part by rebounding purchasing power,” Wener said, pointing to US wage growth outpacing inflation. “Consumer spending was robust last year,” he added, with household staples growing especially strongly—a positive signal for tissue markets. Population trends also played a role. “North American population growth accelerated in the post-pandemic period,”Wener said, highlighting a surge in undocumented migration to the US and the deregulation of Canada’s temporary foreign worker program in 2022. This helped drive tissue demand higher in recent years. However, he cautioned that “population growth should ease moving forward,” as the US steps up deportations and Canada sets lower immigration targets for 2025–2027. Wener also flagged broader cautionary signs. “Inventories and macro point to weaker 2025-26,” he said. Likely stock building had pushed recent demand above underlying consumption, and with US job growth and real wage gains expected to slow, tissue demand growth was likely to normalize. 

Globally, Wener projected a “marked slowdown in trend growth” for tissue demand in the coming years. While emerging markets would continue to drive incremental volumes, mature markets were expected to see flatter trajectories. “In emerging markets, growth remained muted in Q1,” he said. China in particular was facing structural headwinds. “Demand in China slightly improving after a weak 2024,” he noted, but added that “China is entering a period of demographic decline,” which would weigh on long-term tissue demand growth. Wener also pointed to weakness in China’s property sector as an added drag on consumer sentiment. “China’s property downturn has severely hurt household confidence,” his slides showed, reinforcing expectations of slower domestic tissue growth. At the same time, Chinese suppliers are seeking external markets to absorb surplus production. “Chinese suppliers are exporting surplus capacity,” Wener said, with tissue exports rising 11 percent in early 2025.

Looking at the global outlook, Wener projected that tissue demand would continue to expand, but at a slower pace. “Global tissue demand to end 2025 up 2.0 percent,” he said, with incremental growth of 4.7 million tonnes expected between 2024 and 2029. Shifting to printing and writing papers, Wener reported that “global woodfree paper demand declining less than trend in Q1,” with a three-month year-over-year decline of two percent. “Global printing activity doing quite well in early 2025,” he said, noting a three percent increase in the global printing activity index. This helped explain why woodfree paper demand was declining at a slower pace than in recent years.

Looking ahead, Wener projected that the pace of decline in global woodfree paper demand would continue to moderate, forecasting a compound annual decline of 2.2 percent from 2024 to 2029, versus 3.2 percent from 2019 to 2024. Wener underscored the importance of tracking both macroeconomic forces and demographic trends in shaping pulp demand. For tissue, slowing population growth and cautious consumer behaviour would temper growth expectations. For printing and writing papers, the secular decline would continue, but at a somewhat more stable pace. Across both sectors, regional variations would remain critical.