AAC Determinations – Wrong All This Time?

By David Elstone and Jim Girvan
The Spar Tree Group and Industrial Forest Service
December 2, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Jim Girvan

A recent article in the Business In Vancouver (BIV) makes serious allegations into the process used by the province’s Provincial Chief Forester to determine the allowable annual cut (AAC), claiming the “BC timber harvest is vastly overestimated.” The BIV article is based on a “leaked” consultants’ report prepared for a group of First Nations whose traditional territory overlaps with the Mackenzie Timber Supply Area (TSA). …It challenges the Chief Forester’s role in protecting the public interest with respect to sustainable forest management, reading more as an “I gotcha moment” which questions the Timber Supply Review (TSR) process that underpins the setting of AACs across the province.

…The workings of the TSR and AAC determination are not a “dirty secret” or a “black box” process, but rather, one that is routinely replicated by knowledgeable and qualified professionals. Using the inputs that are largely cited and noted, the modelled timber supply projections can be easily reproduced. …Looking at the Mackenzie TSR process in all three of its public reports, it would appear to be a well-documented, lengthy process that took into consideration input from many stakeholders including the collaborative technical working group formed between local First Nations and the BC government. The resultant AAC determination appears to be an informed judgment made by the Chief Forester that draws a balance between the social, environmental and economic objectives of the Crown.

…The consultants believe the full adoption of their assumptions, having a more conservative approach to manage for uncertainties should have been used. …We would suggest BIV’s editor look to produce more balanced editorial because it is difficult to take the BIV seriously considering the one-sided language used to make the case that there is something not right in BC forestry. …Aside from the sensationalism of the BIV article, whichever side you believe, there is a need to investigate these claims given the risk to erosion of the public’s confidence in the province’s sustainable management of its forests.

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