Li Meng, General Manager of Pulp and Paper Products Council’s Beijing Office, presented an overview of China’s pulp and paper industry development and near-term outlook, structured around the country’s five-year plans — the medium-term strategic blueprints through which the Chinese government sets targets for economic growth, industry development, and environmental protection. Understanding those plans, she said, gives international market participants a reliable window into where Chinese policy is headed and what trade and investment conditions to expect. China’s pulp and paper industry has grown substantially across the three most recently completed plan periods, spanning 2010 to 2025. The 14th plan period, covering 2020 to 2025, delivered the strongest growth of the last three — approximately 4.6% annually, representing a nearly 25% increase in total production over five years, with 2025 alone showing close to 4% growth in total pulp, paper, and board output. The arc across the three periods, Li said, reflects a progression from volume-driven expansion, through a phase of regulatory consolidation, to what she characterized as accelerated and more sustainable growth.

Li Meng

Production and demand have tracked closely over the long run, suggesting a broadly balanced market over time, though the industry has been modestly oversupplied in shorter periods, with export markets absorbing additional output. Chinese paper and board exports reached approximately 12 million tonnes in 2025 — nearly triple the 4.3 million tonnes exported in 2010 — representing 8.4% of domestic production. Imports have grown in parallel, reaching approximately 9 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting China’s growing appetite for higher-value grades.

The fibre furnish picture has shifted substantially over the same period. Wood pulp has grown from 24% to 42% of total fibre consumption, while recycled fibre has declined correspondingly. The more striking shift is within wood pulp itself: domestic production has nearly quadrupled since 2010, reaching approximately 27 million tonnes by 2025 — now roughly equal to imported market pulp volumes. The domestic share of total wood pulp consumption has risen from 35% in 2015 to approximately 50% in 2025, a structural change with direct implications for market pulp suppliers.

Looking ahead to the 15th five-year plan, covering 2026 to 2030, confirmed capacity additions represent a 24% increase in pulp capacity and a 10% increase in white paper grades — printing and writing, tissue, ivory board, and specialty paper. Li noted that her analysis covers only confirmed projects through 2028, and that some announced capacity may be delayed or cancelled given current market conditions. Growth rates for white paper grades are decelerating, with containerboard continuing to account for the largest share of total Chinese production.

Within market pulp consumption, the divergence between hardwood and softwood grades has been striking. Monthly hardwood kraft pulp imports have nearly doubled since 2015, while softwood market pulp consumption has been essentially flat over the same decade. Li also flagged that a pine beetle outbreak in China has made previously expensive domestic softwood timber cheaper to harvest, potentially supporting some growth in domestic softwood pulp production that could modestly affect import demand over the next two to three years.

The end-use destination of market pulp is also shifting. The share consumed in printing and writing paper has declined from over 50% to 24%, while tissue and fluff have grown from 20% to 40% of market pulp end use. Given that tissue represents only about half the market size of printing and writing in China, tissue will account for a growing share of market pulp consumption as printing and writing continues its structural decline. Li also noted the growing use of paper-grade pulp in viscose staple fibre production — a non-traditional application — with approximately 1.2 million tonnes of hardwood pulp imports last year directed to that end use, meaning roughly one in six tonnes of Chinese hardwood imports served a non-traditional purpose.

On wood chip and fibre availability — a question bearing directly on how far China’s domestic pulp build-out can realistically go — Li offered a measured assessment. Despite significant expansion in domestic pulp capacity, she said China does not face a near-term wood chip shortage. Forest harvest quotas across Chinese provinces have increased by approximately 27%, and domestic hardwood chip supply is expected to fill the gap created by a recent decline in hardwood chip imports, which fell 1.6 million tonnes between 2024 and 2025. For the near term, she said, wood chip availability is not the problem in China that some in the market assume.

In the Q&A, a delegate asked about bamboo as a potential pulp fibre source — a topic generating growing commercial interest. Li said production costs for bamboo pulp in China are significantly higher than for regular hardwood pulp, primarily because bamboo cultivation is concentrated in Sichuan and central China, creating high transportation and harvesting costs that make it difficult to compete economically with established hardwood sources. She does not expect bamboo to represent a meaningful solution for pulp production in the foreseeable future.

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