Lord J.D. Waverley

America’s global trade war is entering a more dangerous phase. Canada’s counter-tariffs target roughly $27.6 billion of American goods. Ottawa has conspicuously left energy and other strategically important commodities off the table. Decision-makers in Washington may perceive that restraint as an affirmation of America holding a stronger position. The other possibility is that Canada is saving a card it would rather not play just yet. …A pressing issue for Washington is how to secure supplies from sources considered politically and strategically acceptable, alongside the challenge of building domestic processing infrastructure [for minerals like nickel and copper]. …Ottawa would not need to impose an outright embargo to cause problems — the credible prospect of disruption could be enough to force American buyers into the market for alternative supply, pushing them into competition for available material. ..The vulnerability is Washington’s assumption that Canadian mineral supply can always be replaced by buying the same commodity somewhere else.