Canada is now more than 20 years behind reaching its 2030 emissions target

By Canadian Climate Institute
PR Newswire
September 11, 2026
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada

OTTAWA, ON–New analysis of Canada’s current emissions trajectory finds the country is not expected to hit its 2030 emissions target before 2050, let alone achieve net zero emissions by then. Under today’s policies–including the implementation agreement for the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)–Canada would be more than 20 years behind schedule in achieving its international climate commitments, according to research by the Canadian Climate Institute’s 440 Megatonnes project. Unless governments across the country implement stronger policies, the Institute’s analysis finds that national emissions in 2040 will be at least 202 million tonnes above levels aligned with a pathway to net zero emissions. The gap is roughly equivalent to leaving an extra 44 million gasoline-powered cars on the road by 2040–or nearly the total combined emissions of Ontario and British Columbia. If the country remains on its current course, by 2050 Canada’s emissions would be 460 megatonnes higher than the legislated target of net zero.

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