Tree Frog Editor: This insight paper by political risk analyst Robert McKellar offers a strategic lens on how a second Trump administration is shaping US behaviour as a global actor — an issue with direct implications for trade-exposed sectors. McKellar is a founding partner at Harmattan Risk and the co-author of “Trump’s Second Term: Political Risk and the Forest Products Sector,” an analysis of US trade policy, tariff dynamics, and geopolitical uncertainty. In this paper, he steps back from industry-specific analysis to explore the broader strategic logic — and contradictions — underlying current US global behaviour, providing context for the policy volatility and trade uncertainty facing the sector.
Robert McKellar
The US, a lynchpin global player, has become a change bomb, and having a clear sense of the US as an agent on the world stage is critical to sense-making that can inform appropriate strategic responses. But as it stands, Trump, whose character shapes his administration, is a wildcard. He is seemingly bored to tears by stability in any issue he deals with, and bored by a set menu of priorities. …Do we resign ourselves to perpetually playing catch up with US moves and their reverberations, or is it possible to get ahead of the Trumpian storm with a reasonably accurate sketch of the US as a global actor? If its moves were guided by strategic rationality, we would be able to extrapolate some idea of its future behaviour, and even a sense of how the international system might look in a few years and the critical challenges any given state might present…
Seasoned observers of US politics and international behaviour might have foreseen some of what is happening now, but by and large they did not expect Godzilla. Thus, they have often latched onto their own predispositions to fill in the considerable blanks. This has, for the most part, yielded two poles of interpretation. One is that Trump and his team are acting on a strategic assessment, and that despite apparent mayhem their moves are rational, even coldly calculating. The other is that the US has succumbed to the baser aspects of personal rule. Thus, Trump’s eccentric character and ego are the main source of US global behaviour. …The emerging reality no doubt lies somewhere in between, but to triangulate to an approximation, we need to prod around both poles of interpretation.
COFI 2026 CEO Panel to Tackle the Forest Sector’s Future: The 
The unravelling of our trade relationship with the US compels us to act decisively. The chaotic diplomacy of the Trump Administration should encourage Canada to build up economic capacity where Canadians possess both agency and an existing industrial base to rely upon. This capacity‑building goal dovetails with the inherent purpose of the Sustainable Jobs Action Plan (SJAP). …Acting on these priorities, industry can direct its capital and follow its own strategic objectives, but it will do so in an environment that better reflects Canada’s long‑term economic goals. The SJAP can play a pivotal role. …One can look to the forestry sector. …Forestry faces an existential crisis from the 45% U.S. duties and tariffs imposed on Canadian lumber. …However, the sector also holds immense potential for manufacturing a variety of high value‑added products while also being a renewable resource key to decarbonizing construction.
Canada’s housing and homelessness crisis touches nearly every Canadian. Over the past decade, while federal housing spending has increased, affordability has worsened for all but the wealthiest, and homelessness is surging. Despite recent declines in housing prices and rents, unsheltered homelessness is still up 300% since 2018, according to the most recent national point-in-time count. The country has a narrow but historic window to tackle this crisis and rebuild our housing system so it delivers at the speed, scale and affordability this moment demands. …Federal action alone won’t get us there. Provinces and territories control the planning systems, development-charge frameworks, zoning rules, supportive housing, health services and income supports. …That is why we need a Canada Housing Accord. [Tim Richter is the chief executive of the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness and Tyler Meredith is a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy]
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
MONTREAL — Tariffs and economic angst delivered a significant blow to Canadian National Railway Co. last year, as the question mark hanging over North American free trade continues to threaten profits in 2026. “Tariffs, trade uncertainty and volatility impacted our full-year 2025 revenues by over $350 million,” chief commercial officer Janet Drysdale told analysts on a conference call Friday. Forest products and metals took the biggest bruising, she said, with the two segments seeing a year-over-year revenue drop of eight and four per cent, respectively, in the latest quarter. …On top of trade uncertainty, a less publicized source of angst has rippled through the rail industry since last summer. Union Pacific Corp., the second-largest railway operator in the United States, announced in July it wants to buy Norfolk Southern Corp. in a US$85-billion deal that would create that country’s first transcontinental railway, and potentially trigger a final wave of rail mergers across North America.
Don’t miss the FSC Canada, February Update: Canada’s Taan Forest is now the first FSC Verified Impact Forest, recognizing protection of Indigenous cultural values and biodiversity. FSC Canada is inviting input via a social metrics survey open until March 16, 2026. The edition also highlights two new job opportunities, an updated trademark policy for certificate holders, newly welcomed Canadian promotional licence holders, a new guide on integrating FSC certification into impact investing, and details on where FSC will be present at events in 2026.
A forest advisory council has recommended shifting BC’s forest regime towards more local decision-making. The plan has received applause from forestry groups, the BC Greens and the head of the BC First Nations Forestry Council. But some experts warn the plan lacks teeth and risks putting fragile forest ecosystems at risk. …“I think of this like the cod fishery,” said Garry Merkel, a forester and co-chair of the advisory council, at the report’s launch event Monday. Merkel likened B.C.’s crisis to the fishery collapse on Canada’s East Coast. …BC First Nations Forestry Council’s Lennard Joe said he supports efforts to bring forest decision-making closer to people it affects. …But UBC forest management professor Peter Wood noted that the report made little mention of the province’s Old Growth Strategic Review. …Rachel Holt, a conservation ecologist worries that the council’s recommendations stop short of changes that are required to protect key ecosystems.
Forests Minister Ravi Parmer hosted the high-profile first National Wildfire Symposium in Vancouver and wildfire risk featured prominently at the 23rd B.C. Natural Resources Forum in Prince George. Dialogue at the symposium made it clear that wildfire is a coast-to-coast-to-coast challenge. It has stretched the resources of all provinces and territories. …But what if there is a way for our provincial government to more effectively spend available dollars to maintain wildfire suppression, improve prevention capabilities and support beneficial fires as an essential ecological function, while at the same time becoming better at identifying cross-government areas for new investments to improve wildfire resilience? This is the focus of a new report being published by the 
The attorney general of BC has decided to take over any potential prosecutions of those arrested for violating an injunction prohibiting people from blocking roads in an area of the Walbran Valley. Forestry company Tsawak-qin Forestry Limited Partnership, which has rights to log in the area where protesters have set up blockades, asked the attorney general to take over the proceedings, and to determine if there is enough evidence to charge those arrested with criminal contempt. Those arrested have faced civil contempt of court charges for alleged breaches of the injunction. …Lawyer Noah Ross, who represents Bill Jones, a Pacheedaht First Nation elder who opposes the logging, said, “By being willing to step in and fund the prosecution, they make it effectively cheaper for the logging company”. …The decision means it’s now up to the BC Prosecution Service to determine what charges, if any, it will approve against those arrested.
Victoria, B.C. – A new independent report from the Provincial Forestry Advisory Council (PFAC) finds that British Columbia’s current forest management system is failing to meet a range needs, including communities, First Nations, businesses and the environment. The report concludes that small, incremental reforms are not enough to address the scale of challenges facing the sector. Titled 
VANCOUVER — A government-commissioned review of forestry in British Columbia is calling for the system to be razed and rebuilt with a focus on trust and transparency about the state of the province’s forests, shifting away “from managing harvest volumes to managing lands.” …The authors of the report, including industry representatives and academics, pitch a model that would change who makes decisions about lumber allotment, taking that power away from the provincial government and shifting it to regional bodies that manage defined areas. …Shannon Janzen a co-chair of the advisory council, and former chief forester, said the use of area-based land management is not a new idea and is already in use in places like Ontario and Alberta. …Forest Minister Ravi Parmar would not commit to implementing the report’s recommendations, telling reporters that he has to consult with other ministries. …A statement from the BC Council of Forest Industries said it would be reviewing the recommendations with its members. …Brian Menzies, the executive director of the Independent Wood Processors Association of B.C., said there’s little detail in the report about how its members would access more fibre.
A First Nations-owned company west of Williams Lake says continued funding is essential for projects that use fire-killed wood instead of burning it in slash piles or leaving it to decay. Percy Guichon and Daniel Persson with Central Chilcotin Rehabilitation Ltd. (CCR) attended a Jan. 27 regular city council meeting in Williams Lake to provide an update on the Palmer Project, a multi-year Indigenous-led stewardship initiative which aims to reduce wildfire risk and improve public safety and forest health through spacing treatments that remove hazardous fuels. To date, the project located along Palmer Lake Road, about one and a half hour west of Williams Lake, has treated more than 1,500 hectares with recovered fibre utilized by Atlantic Power for biomass and Cariboo Pulp & Paper for pulp. Fibre was also previously utilized by Drax, which closed in Williams Lake by the end of 2025, into fibre pellets for bioenergy.
Residents of a Bonnington, 18 km west of Nelson, hope they can rely on B.C. Timber Sales’ assurances that logging in their watershed will reduce wildfire risk and won’t threaten their water supply. For nearly a year, BCTS has engaged in an elaborate communication process with the residents of Bonnington about its plans for the Falls Creek watershed. The agency has a timber license on Crown land in the watershed, which provides drinking water to the rural community of about 600 people. …BCTS plans and designs logging operations, builds logging roads, then sells the timber to the highest bidder. The B.C. government added wildfire mitigation to the BCTS mandate last year. In the spring of 2025, the province hired Cathy Scott-May, a communications consultant, to steer a communication process along with BCTS professional forester Mark Tallman of Nelson. …Tallman said this consultation process is different from anything BCTS has done in the past…
NEW BRUNSWICK — J.D. Irving approached a number of municipalities last fall, asking them to support its request to be able to log 32,000 hectares of protected areas on its Crown timber licence in exchange for conserving forest near those communities. At least nine municipalities signed a letter asking that Natural Resources Minister John Herron “give equal weight to the social and economic interests of local governments when seeking to balance the interests of multiple stakeholders across New Brunswick.” …Conservation groups, including the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, said the proposal is extremely concerning. Roberta Clowater questioned why protected areas would be treated as “a wood bank for industry.” …The proposal is in response to the government’s promise to increase conservation lands from 10% to 15% of the province’s landmass. That would mean protecting an additional 360,000 hectares, which the province hopes to source from a mixture of Crown and private land.
A new study finds that Canada could remove at least five times its annual carbon emissions with strategic planting of more than six million trees along the northern edge of the boreal forest. The