Kelly McCloskey
Robert McKellar
Over the past two years, Tree Frog has periodically turned to political risk consultant Robert McKellar to help readers better understand the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping the business environment in which the North American forest sector operates. In his feature Trump’s Second Term and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector, Robert explored how changing politics, government policy and international relations can create both risks and opportunities for forest companies. In doing so, he also introduced readers to the discipline of political risk management—a practical framework for anticipating and responding to an increasingly uncertain world.
Robert’s earlier articles generated thoughtful feedback and reinforced a common observation: the pace of global change is becoming increasingly difficult to follow. Every day seems to bring another headline about tariffs, trade disputes, wars, sanctions, shipping disruptions, energy prices, artificial intelligence, or some other geopolitical development. For many of us, the challenge is no longer keeping up with the news—it’s deciding what actually deserves our attention. Which developments are likely to influence markets, trade and investment in the forest sector? Which simply warrant monitoring? And which are little more than background noise? Those questions are central to political risk management. They are also questions we increasingly hear from readers trying to make sense of a relentless news cycle and what it means for their businesses and organizations.
In this article, Robert steps back from the daily headlines to explain how political risk professionals approach that challenge. His answer offers a practical framework for separating signal from noise—and a useful way of thinking about the global forces increasingly shaping the future of the forest sector.
China will be front and centre at the renegotiations of the USMCA on trade despite not having a seat at the bargaining table. …With the USMCA now subject to annual reviews, the US is using the continuing trade talks to put pressure on Canada and Mexico to collaborate with its efforts to undercut China. Washington is alleging that China is exploiting loopholes in the USMCA to avoid US tariffs on its exports by using Mexico and Canada to gain back-door entry to the US market. But there is a difference between blatant customs fraud and legal shipments facilitated by third countries as part of global trade. The US, however, appears intent on blurring that distinction… providing Washington with a convenient pretext to fiddle with the USMCA’s rules of origin and compel more US content to the detriment of the two other signatories to the pact. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
Alberta’s forestry sector enters a second half of 2026 with cautious optimism, even as weak housing markets supply, U.S. tariffs and softwood lumber duties continue to weigh on the industry. Ken Greenway, Alberta Forestry and Parks’ executive director of strategy, policy and economics, said northern Alberta’s timber industry remains relatively stable compared to some other parts of Canada, where forestry communities have faced sharper contractions. “We haven’t seen huge disruptions,” Greenway said. “Pulp is a weak market and that’s an area of concern, but softwood products prices are slowly moving to the positive side.” …“It’s a cyclical market, we’re at the bottom of a cycle at the moment. The current contraction across Canada – we have not seen as much in Alberta. We hope to withstand this storm.” The industry is also becoming more involved in wildfire mitigation.
Western Forest Products says a curtailment at its Cowichan Bay sawmill is expected to last until this fall. The curtailment began on May 11, affecting 54 employees. On Wednesday, WFP told CHEK News it currently expects the curtailment to remain in effect through September. The forestry company says the curtailment is due to “persistently weak market conditions” and that it is trying to mitigate impacts on employees by “providing work opportunities at our other operations where possible.” “Conditions are being monitored closely, and we will keep employees informed should the expected duration change,” said Western Forest Products. The curtailment in Cowichan Bay comes as an indefinite curtailment continues at the WFP sawmill in Chemainus. The Chemainus sawmill was curtailed in July 2025, affecting approximately 120 workers, and in January it was announced that the curtailment was expected to last for all of 2026. [END]
The US has formally declined to renew the USMCA trade agreement for a further 16 years. While existing tariff-free trade terms will continue, the decision triggers annual reviews until the agreement expires in 10 years. President Trump openly views the agreement as detrimental to US manufacturing, placing the burden of concessions firmly on Mexico and Canada. But as today’s chart shows, Canada has a much lower reliance on the US than Mexico, and the Carney administration is taking active steps to diversify its export base further. Exports from industrial sectors subject to tariffs – metals and auto – have fallen sharply, but the hit to activity is limited, as these account for just 2.5% of GDP. …Adjusted for a shrinking working-age population, production in these sectors has picked up. …Goods exports to the US make up close to one-third of Mexico’s GDP. Canada’s share is also high at 15%, but has fallen over time.
The Canadian lumber industry saw enormous price spikes during the pandemic years of 2020-2022, with costs close to triple what they are today for some products. … “We saw prices skyrocket during COVID, but so too did the cost to operate,” said Aspen Dudzic, the Alberta Forest Products Assocation’s communications director. “And interestingly, post-COVID, we saw the market prices for lumber go down, but the costs to operate have not come down in the same way.” Even though lumber costs have seen a huge drop in prices in a vacuum, why haven’t these cost savings been passed on to the consumer? …“The supply chain is really complex,” Dudzic said. “Nothing we do operates in a vacuum, so there’s a lot of other compounding costs that we have to look at, like inflationary pressures, upticks in fuel and energy prices. …Top of mind is the ongoing trade war with the US.
BC has seen lower timber harvests and lumber and lumber exports. …BC exported 2.5 million m3 of softwood logs in 2025, a trend that has been in place since 2022. …BC lumber exports have always focused on the US market, with 64% of production and 76% of total exports directed at the US in 2025. But with US duties and tariffs totalling over 45%. the volumes started to drop in 2025 Q4. Total BC lumber exports in 2025 were 5.1 billion bf, a drop of 12% from 2024. Lumber exports to the US were 3.83 billion bf in 2025, a drop of 14.3% from 2024. …In the first quarter of 2026, total BC lumber exports were lower by 20.1% compared to 2025 Q1, with exports to the US down by a whopping 24.7% (the bite of US duties and tariffs is evident), lower to Japan by 17.7% but higher to China by 10%. It will be challenging for BC mills in export markets for much of 2026 unless demand improves or prices move higher—both unlikely until 2027.
OTTAWA – The 2026 wildfire season has been manageable so far, largely because of significant amounts of rain across Western Canada, but federal officials cautioned Thursday the summer forecast is hotter and drier than normal in much of the country. … The southern Prairies and eastern Quebec have had more rain than usual this year, and it’s expected that above-average precipitation will continue in Alberta and the Northwest Territories. Forecasts for July and August are calling for higher than usual temperatures for Ontario, Quebec, northern parts of the Prairies and the territories. …The latest information from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre shows there have been 3,100 fires across the country so far this season, compared to around 2,900 at this time last year. …But the total area burned this year is less than last year, at around 12,000 square kilometres, down from 46,000 square kilometres.
People are invited to share their input and help guide the development of recommendations and long-term solutions for water supply and ecosystem health in the Goat River watershed. The Province of British Columbia, in partnership with yaqan nuʔkiy (Lower Kootenay Band) and the Regional District of Central Kootenay (RDCK), has launched a tripartite working group to address growing water-scarcity challenges in the Goat River watershed and develop recommendations for long-term water management in the Creston Valley. As part of the process, a survey will gather insights from community members, water users, farmers, industry and other interested parties about their vision for the Goat River watershed. The survey is available until Aug. 1, 2026. …The Goat River Watershed Collective Conversations Working Group brings together representatives from the Province, yaqan nuʔkiy and the RDCK. It will serve as a recommendation-making body, developing joint recommendations for consideration by yaqan nuʔkiy leadership, the RDCK board of directors and provincial ministries. 
…As some resource roads across the province fall into disrepair … outdoor groups are working to save them. 
Open letter to Premier David Eby, B.C.’s Minister of Forests, Ravi Parmar, spoke in Revelstoke about his hopes for sawmills, old- growth and caribou protection (recently). It is evident Parmar is misinformed about the issues critical to the Revelstoke community and other British Columbia residents, and is failing to act on your government’s commitments to climate action, environmental protection, and sustainability. When asked about protecting old-growth within the Revelstoke region, such as the Rainbow-Jordan Wilderness (RJW), Parmar stated: “What I wouldn’t support is just saving land for the sake of saving land and seeing mills close down.” That response demonstrated a lack of understanding of community priorities. …The minister’s comments also show a lack of understanding of the Old Growth Strategic Review, which your government commissioned and committed to implementing. Rather than perpetuating the volume-based resource extraction model, a shift to a value-added sustainable forestry is needed for the provincial economy and long-term employment opportunities.
Mayor Scott Gillingham announced today he will bring forward a proposal to City Council next week to maintain full funding for tree planting in the 2026 Urban Forest Renewal Program. The move follows public feedback about a proposed budget amendment that would have reduced 2026 tree planting work by $1.236 million to offset a provincial government change to the City’s Strategic Infrastructure Basket funding allocation. “Winnipeggers care deeply about our urban forest, and I’ve heard that clearly,” said Mayor Scott Gillingham. “The public wants this tree planting funding protected. I agree, and I’ll be bringing forward a plan to Council next week to do exactly that.” City Council adopted Winnipeg’s first Urban Forest Strategy in 2023, setting a long-term plan to protect, preserve, and grow the city’s tree canopy.
ALBERTA — Harvesting plans for forestry companies operating in the High Prairie and Slave Lake regions were presented June 17 at a joint open house in High Prairie. Plans were displayed by West Fraser Timber that operates High Prairie Forest Products, Tolko Industries, and by Millar Western Forest Products that bought the Slave Lake Pulp Mill from West Fraser and became the owner in April 2024. No representative was present from West Fraser. Companies hosted the event to allow citizens to comment on the proposed plans. Tolko plans to have operations in the Sweathouse area south of Snipe Lake, Salt Prairie and Whitemud, says woodlands supervisor Callie Skellett. …Millar Western plans to harvest trees in three areas, forestry superintendent Stuart Adkins says.
The average Metro Vancouver tree has a lifespan of less than eight years. That makes it even more important to preserve as many trees as possible. The startling statistic, from Brian Minter, a prominent B.C. horticulturist, serves as a deadly warning: Metro Vancouver’s unusually early and severe watering restrictions are a threat to the region’s trees. Given that so many young trees in Metro Vancouver do not reach their tween years — mostly for lack of watering — Minter has come to think of the metropolis’s relatively few older trees as rare and precious “gold.” …Because of lack of time, knowledge or concern, Bill Manning, retired director of horticulture for Vancouver parks said, many homeowners, tenants and strata councils don’t recognize that, though they’re not allowed to use sprinklers on trees, they are permitted to water trees by hand using a hose with a spring-loaded shut-off nozzle, a watering can, or drip irrigation.
Hydro-Québec has reached an agreement with the Atikamekw community of Opitciwan and Société en commandite Onimiskiw Opitciwan (SCOO) to build a 4.8MW forest biomass cogeneration plant that will replace the community’s diesel-fired power generation, with commercial operation expected to begin this month. Under the 25-year agreement … the utility will also fund the acquisition and installation of a dryer at the Opitciwan sawmill, majority-owned by the Conseil des Atikamekw d’Opitciwan (CAO). The project is estimated to cost C$60.2 million (around $45 million), with funding contributions from the Quebec provincial and Canadian federal governments alongside investment from CAO and SCOO. The Atikamekw are a First Nations people numbering around 8,000 across several communities in northern Quebec; Opitciwan itself is home to close to 3,000 residents. …”Replacing the current diesel plant with one that’s powered by forest biomass from the sawmill is a huge step forward,” said Denis Clary, President of SCOO.
Smoke from two major wildfires burning in British Columbia’s Fraser Canyon is leading to air quality warnings across parts of the province, with an emergency physician warning the health effects extend far beyond watery eyes and a scratchy throat. “It is considered to be one of the biggest public health threats that we face,” said Dr. Courtney Howard, who is also the president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association. … “The particulate matter in smoke that’s less than 2.5 microns can go all the way down into our lungs, and the ultrafine particles can actually cross over into our bloodstream,” she said. …Howard said scientists are only beginning to understand the long-term health effects of repeated wildfire smoke exposure because the research is still limited. “We don’t have good evidence on the long-term outcomes yet,” she said. But a small number of studies, according to Howard, have suggested possible links with high rates of brain cancer and lung cancer.