The U.S. and Canada are flirting again. Washington and Ottawa have increased the tempo of their trade talks over the past week. …Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who helped torpedo a previous round of negotiations over the summer, and Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc have been speaking regularly since then. They have primarily discussed Trump’s tariffs on sectors like autos and steel that have been a sticking point for Canada all along. …The uptick in engagement has triggered a flurry of headlines on both sides of the border as well as White House boasts that a deal is near. But unlike Trump, Carney has little political incentive to make concessions at the moment. …The lack of new concessions or tangible breakthroughs is a sign that the recent flurry of outreach may be more of a White House effort to soothe Republicans’ midterm worries.
- Related in NBC News: White House tempers tough talk on Canada trade as inflation tops voter concerns
The U.S. will remove its 50% tariff on certain Canadian thin hardwood plywood, corrugated boxes and coated paperboard from October 30 while imposing the same duty on Canadian thin MDF, hardboard, wood moldings, engineered flooring and kraft paper, according to a 
FORT KENT, Maine — In the heat of US midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada — and Ottawa’s retaliation — have taken center stage in timber-producing Maine, walloped by the economic fallout perhaps more than any other state. Residents in Maine’s frontier towns express worry that the tariffs have also triggered a rupture in cross-border relationships built up over decades, and that the intricate community fabric could take years to repair. …Maine is reluctantly on the front lines of the trade war. …Many logging operations in the nation’s most heavily-forested state are suffering, and cross-border tourism has tanked. Households already struggling with fuel prices are seeing costs of living soar, an issue dominating the midterms. …For two centuries, Canadian mills near Maine have processed vast amounts of its timber. …Not all Maine loggers are upset. Pleasant River Lumber Company aims to expand production.
OTTAWA – Multiple government and industry sources close to trade discussions between Canada and the United States said the momentum of the talks, just recently re-started in earnest, combined with US President Trump’s political vulnerabilities ahead of the midterms leads them to believe there is considerable appetite to strike a deal with Canada. All the sources cautioned an agreement of any sort was far from certain given the past behaviour of Trump and his trade delegates. But, over the last week the White House has shown much more interest in arriving at an agreement “than in all the weeks prior,” according to one of the sources. …Two sources described intense talks over the weekend, that were “all consuming.” Another source with knowledge of talks on both sides of the border said things are moving. …White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the US was close to a deal with Canada.”
We’ve had final investment decisions on LNG Canada Phase 2, the Pacific Link pipeline formally designated a project of national interest, and a snap provincial election. These big announcements have overshadowed some smaller good news stories over the past few weeks. …Domtar, it appears, has managed to secure some kind of fibre supply with the provincial government. Details are sketchy, however, because neither Domtar nor the Ministry of Forests bothered to put out press releases on the development. …Another bit of good news in forestry is that Gillfor Manufacturing, a B.C. wood products manufacturing and distribution company, will salvage what is left of Teal Jones, which includes three mills in Surrey and Tree Farm License 46. “The plan is to restart that shake and shingle mill eventually. The other two sawmills will continue to be operated on a two-shift basis, provided there is ample log supply. 
In an Oct. 19 announcement from Cowichan Valley candidate Bert Chen, the B.C. Conservative Party has cast doubt on Crofton residents’ future water quality and promised funding to fix it. In his announcement, Chen promised to secure up $10 million to help revitalize the Crofton Mill site and provide critical support for the community if a Conservative government is elected on Oct. 24. The Domtar mill in Crofton was permanently shuttered in 2025. “With the lost property tax revenues from the mill, the local Municipality of North Cowichan is unable to provide the funding to invest in an independent, municipally-owned water system for Crofton,” said Chen. …“This site is ideal for provincial support due to the adjacent BC Ferries terminal.”
B.C. Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson said his party would speed up issuing harvest permits and reduce regulatory costs in an effort to increase “sustainable access” to timber in B.C.’s beleaguered forest industry. … To the province’s key industry group, the Conservative platform appears to get at more of the issues it has been asking for government to address than the NDP policy promises, which aim at industry transformation. “(However) overall, we continue to see a bit of a lack of urgency that’s needed to stem the tide of forest mill closures,” said Kim Haakstad, CEO of the Council of Forest Industries. …The NDP’s Ravi Parmar said much of the Conservative policy resembles measures the previous government was already working toward, such as establishment of a biomass strategy.” Parmar added that the NDP remains committed to reaching a 45 million cubic metres per year in annual timber harvest. [to access the full story a Vancouver Sun subscription is required]
Canada’s first robotic roof truss manufacturing line is located in Huron County, Ontario. “The robotics go slower than human beings, but they’re consistent,” said the Founder and President of Atlas Engineered Products, Hadi Abassi. Abassi bought Clinton Truss in 2018, with the idea of revolutionizing how roof trusses were built in Canada. Two years ago, he started construction of this $20 million facility in Vanastra, Ont., to robotically manufacture roof trusses, streamlining the production process from start to finish. “And not just trusses. We have the same system, and same vision for the component construction, for the walls section and floor sections,” said Abassi. With 10 factories across Canada, Abassi aims to build homes piece by piece, and deliver them to construction sites across North America, speeding up the on-site home construction process. …Helping to enable the expansion in Vanastra, a $4 million grant from Natural Resources Canada’s Forestry Innovation Support Program.
OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada on Wednesday hiked its key policy rate for the first time in more than three years and said further increases might be needed to prevent soaring energy costs from fuelling broader inflation. The bank lifted the rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent, as widely expected, and also ramped up its inflation forecast for 2027 to 3.1 per cent from the 2.0 per cent it had predicted in July. Growth this year is set to be 1.0 per cent, higher than the 0.7 per cent seen in July. “With the outlook for inflation substantially higher and the economy showing resilience, an increase in the policy rate is needed to reduce the risk,” Governor Tiff Macklem said. …The annual inflation rate hit 3.2 per cent in September, above the bank’s one-three per cent target range, almost solely led by higher energy and energy-related costs of transportation.
Lumber decreased to 514.00 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since September 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 2.91%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 10.33%.
President Donald Trump’s escalating trade fight with Canada is squeezing the economy north of the border, threatening jobs and adding to families’ financial strain as steep U.S. tariffs on roughly $20 billion in goods remain in place. U.S. tariffs have hammered the country’s steel, aluminum, lumber and automobile producers that depend heavily on the American market. Steel exports have fallen by roughly half since the tariffs took effect, while lumber exports were about 20% below 2024 levels earlier this year. Production and jobs have also declined in some of the hardest-hit industries. Canadian families are feeling the squeeze, too. Consumer prices were 3% higher in August than a year earlier, with grocery prices up 2.8% and transportation costs jumping 7.5%, according to the government’s own data. …Scott Lincicome, at the Cato Institute said free trade in products including fertilizer, energy and lumber helps keep costs down for American farmers, homebuilders and consumers.
The Bank of Canada has not raised interest rates since July 2023. And while an eighth-consecutive hold is widely predicted next week, a growing number of economists and traders are now expecting the central bank to hike its trend-setting rate to tamp down stubborn inflation. Mortgage and debt experts say higher rates would have significant impacts on Canada’s sagging real estate market. Payments on variable-rate mortgages would rise immediately, along with rates for new fixed mortgages. Home prices could dip lower. …The volume of home sales nationwide is currently at a 25-year low, says Ben Rabidoux of Ontario-based Edge Realty Analytics. He describes confidence among buyers today as “unbelievably weak across the country,” owing to a slew of economic uncertainties ranging from the Canada-U.S. trade war to the impact of AI on jobs.
Lumber futures fell below $527 per thousand board feet, retreating toward a two-year low amid persistent weakness in the US housing market. Homebuilder confidence has fallen to its lowest level in 14 years, as high mortgage rates, labor shortages and high construction costs continue to weigh on the sector. Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.4%, their highest level in three years, raising borrowing costs, dampening housing demand and weighing on prices. On the other hand, trade tensions with Canada continue to constrain lumber availability and pressuring prices. Although the US Department of Commerce lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 24.75% from 35.16%, a separate 10% US tariff brings total duties to 34.75%, limiting the potential for a supply recovery.
At a time when Canada and the U.S. are struggling to address severe housing affordability challenges, the tariff war is pushing construction costs in both countries in precisely the wrong direction. While government leaders on both sides of the border have repeatedly pledged to increase housing supply, lower costs and make homeownership more attainable, escalating tariffs and counter-tariffs on both the residential and industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) construction industry are having the exact opposite effect. …Developers are already grappling with persistent labour shortages, elevated interest rates, soaring land prices, development charges and regulatory hurdles. Added to that list is now a new and destabilizing force: tariffs on key construction materials and building components that are essential to housing projects. …Every tariff imposed somewhere in the supply chain eventually leads to higher prices. That matters because the Canadian and American construction industries are deeply integrated. 
TORONTO — A new report says Ontario’s housing market is expected to improve “modestly” next year as favourable economic conditions help push buyers off the sidelines, though higher borrowing costs could dull the extent of the rebound. Desjardins senior economist Kari Norman said the province’s housing sector “is in the midst of a striking contradiction.” Her report called the market “weak” despite improved affordability, greater buyer choice and easing rental conditions. The forecast predicts existing home sales will rise nearly five per cent in 2027 compared with this year, driven by lower prices, rising disposable incomes, policy supports for first‑time buyers and some release of pent‑up demand. But activity would still be well below long‑term norms, the report noted, while balanced market conditions should lead to average price growth of 2.4 per cent next year. The analysis said the interest rate backdrop will likely remain challenging.
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As Canada’s 2026 wildfire season closed having scorched roughly 4.5 million hectares and forced 33,750 people from their homes — making it the country’s fourth-worst fire season on record — researchers in Montréal and Ottawa announced an AI tool that compresses months of hazard computation into hours. On October 23, Mila — the Québec Artificial Intelligence Institute — and the forestry division of Natural Resources Canada jointly announced an AI emulator designed to slot into Canada’s existing wildfire hazard workflow as a radically faster alternative to BurnP3+, the country’s established physics-based simulator. Depending on the hardware it runs on, the model operates between 800 and 3,400 times faster than BurnP3+, according to 
Canada is facing a carbon tariff threat from the European Union within months as the economic bloc fully implements its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). According to internal documents, Canadian iron, steel and aluminum are not exempt from the carbon tariff even with Canada’s national price on carbon and its decade-old trade deal with the European Union. …With the Canada-EU Summit this week in Montreal, Ottawa’s diplomats continue to seek an agreement with Brussels before Canadian exporters face additional compliance costs and a carbon charge that European importers will have to pay at the border in 2027. Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Tuesday that the summit marks the start of negotiations for Canada to become a closer strategic partner to the 27-member bloc. …Global Affairs estimates $2.8 billion worth of goods annually are exposed to the carbon import levy — primarily on metals that are already impacted by U.S tariffs.
In the last five years, B.C. has experienced multiple wildfire seasons that displaced thousands, a heat dome that killed more than 600 people and flooding and landslides that closed major highways for days and damaged thousands of homes. It would be hard to tell based on the election promises of B.C.’s political parties. The NDP and the Conservatives have made few campaign commitments relating to B.C.’s increasingly common natural disasters. Promises regarding the climate change that’s linked to many disasters have also been scarce. In last week’s 
