Kevin Mason
As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date. Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising!
For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts. On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.
The Canadian Lumber Trade Alliance (CLTA) issued the following statement. …Luc Theriault, President, Wood Products at Domtar and Co-Chair of the Canadian Lumber Trade Alliance, said “The U.S. government’s decision to impose a further 10% tariff – on top of existing duties of 35% – is disappointing. These measures unjustly punish Canadian producers, while also driving up costs for our neighbors in the US.” …“Canadian lumber does not pose a national security risk to the United States. Our industry directly supports 200,000 jobs and sustains over 300 forest-dependent communities across Canada. We will continue to work closely with the Government of Canada to defend against these unfortunate trade actions and to safeguard Canadian forestry jobs.” …In its recent Section 232 proclamation, the US signaled a willingness to pursue negotiations. The Canadian industry is ready to engage. It is essential that the Government of Canada match this commitment and play an active role in defending our industry.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to head to Washington early next week to meet with US. President Trump. …Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, Industry Minister Melanie Joly and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will accompany Carney. This latest visit comes as Canadian and U.S. officials try to reach a deal on punishing American tariffs, and as a review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement gets underway. …Over the summer, the U.S. hiked its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, with Canada imposing a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum. …The source says next week’s meeting follows weeks of groundwork by LeBlanc, Canadian Ambassador to the US Kirsten Hillman and Clerk of the Privy Council Michael Sabia, with the team being aware the discussions could go sideways.
The United Steelworkers union (USW) is denouncing the latest escalation in Trump’s trade war, following his September 29 proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber exports to the US. …“For decades, Canadian lumber has supported the US housing market, keeping construction costs down for American families while sustaining good jobs here at home,” said Marty Warren, USW National Director. “Instead of recognizing that reality, Trump has chosen to pursue reckless trade policies that will drive up housing prices in the US and put tens of thousands of Canadian jobs at risk.” …Jeff Bromley, Chair of the USW Wood Council, underscored the toll on workers and communities across the country. “With nearly half the value of every Canadian lumber shipment being siphoned off at the border, sawmills, logging operations and whole towns in Canada are facing devastating consequences.” …The Steelworkers are urging the federal government to respond with urgency and resolve. 
PRINCE ALBERT, Saskatchewan — “It’s taking way too long, and harder than we were hoping, but we have not given up.” That’s the message being delivered by those involved with One Sky Forestry Products‘ OSB mill project planned for Prince Albert. Last week, the Saskatchewan NDP said the mill was the latest in a string of major economic projects delayed or cancelled under a Sask. Party government. …However, a source at the OSB mill project said while they were in somewhat of a holding pattern because of the trade uncertainty with the US, the board of directors had a meeting last week and made the unanimous decision not to cancel or shelve the project, but instead look at ways to move it along. …They added the timing of the project that was supposed to be completed in 2027 and provide 700 jobs, will depend on whether they can tap into financing support sooner rather than later.
ONTARIO — Upper levels of government have reached funding agreements to support the Town of Kapuskasing’s Paper Mill, averting a planned closure and providing what local leaders are calling “a critical step” toward securing the region’s economic future. Kap Paper announced the newfound support in a social media post on Friday evening. “Next week, we’ll be working out the details for a restart plan,” the post said, adding that updates would be shared “as soon as everything is confirmed.” Kapuskasing Mayor Dave Plourde, called the deal a “critical step forward for Kapuskasing and the entire region,” in a statement posted to the town’s social media page. …“We now have a second chance – a window of opportunity to come together, calmly and deliberately, to build a plan for modernization and long-term competitiveness,” said Plourde …“Today, I am pleased to confirm that both the federal and provincial governments have agreed to provide support.”
Companies reliant on New Brunswick’s softwood lumber industry are bracing for hard times after US President Trump announced new tariffs on Sept. 30. …In a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney, New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt pleaded for the federal government to make softwood lumber tariffs a top priority. “In some communities in New Brunswick, one in every 11 workers depends directly on forest products,” Holt wrote. …Ron Marcolin, the New Brunswick vice-president with Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said the latest tariffs and duties are a big deal in a long-running drama over softwood lumber. …While New Brunswick may largely rely on the American market, Marcolin said Americans also rely on New Brunswick’s products. …”The thing is, too, they realize their product is inferior. Their softwood lumber is not as good as a Canadian stick of lumber.”
It’s hard to find anything good to say about Canadian forestry stocks right now. Some of the biggest names in the sector have been on a downward slide for the past three years. … But the onslaught of grim news has highlighted some bargains. …Okay, the definition of attractive rests on an assumption that risk-averse investors might not want to embrace just yet: Despite Mr. Trump’s bluster, the US still needs Canadian lumber in a big way to feed its lumber-intensive home construction industry. Says who? The National Association of Home Builders, for one. …Some analysts believe that US forestry companies will struggle to replace Canadian softwood. Ben Isaacson, at Bank of Nova Scotia, estimates that US producers would have to build 50 new mills to become fully independent of Canadian lumber. Just two companies build the specialized equipment required in mills. They would struggle to supply even two mills a year. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
Although we are skeptical how effective the C$500 million in “transition” funding will be, the C$700 million in loan guarantees, which are clearly designed as a short-term lifeline for companies to weather the storm, seem pretty meaningful to the Canadian industry at first glance. …If Canadian producers were to simply absorb the incremental duty rate increase, using today’s FOB price for most Canadian softwood lumber and last year’s export volumes to the US translates to a “just pay it” cost of C$1.6-1.7 billion in additional duty payments over the next 12 months. Canadian mill operators are not in a financial position to simply absorb an additional 21-percentage-point increase in duties, so this is an extreme estimate of the true cost. Mills will curtail output rather than continue producing at heavy losses until prices adjust accordingly. Additionally, there is usually some degree of passthrough from the buyer to the seller.
The softwood lumber trade dispute between the US and Canada, which has led to ever-higher US import duties on Canadian lumber, has lasted for decades. …Canadian lumber has the backing NAHB, which sees lumber tariffs as exacerbating high costs for builders and worsening the US housing affordability crisis. There is currently a “Wall of Wood” in the US, after Canadian producers increased shipments to the US in anticipation of the hike to existing ADD and CVD duties in August. Expectations that a large increase in duties would force the closure of Canadian sawmills, lead to shortages, and a boost in lumber prices, overlooked the current weak US demand for lumber, according to Matt Layman. …As US homebuilders now face additional tariff-driven costs, including a 50% tariff on cabinets and vanities, it’s hard to see the lumber demand situation improving, even if more Canadian suppliers have to curtail production or close sawmills.
Lumber futures prices are trading higher after President Trump slapped a 10% tariff on wood imports. Lumber prices have been on a rollercoaster this year, lifted by higher import taxes and tugged lower by the deteriorating housing and construction markets. …Trump’s executive order said the additional 10% tariff, which will also raise the price of lumber from European suppliers like Germany and Sweden, is aimed at protecting domestic sawmills. …Analysts expect the tariff to benefit domestic sawyers and timberland owners, such as Weyerhaeuser and PotlatchDeltic, at the expense of competitors north of the border, who have been losing US market share because of the duties, challenges supplying their sawmills with logs and the abundance of cheap US pine. “Canadian lumber producers’ cash costs should further increase, resulting in capacity closures and a tightening of lumber supply-demand dynamics,” said Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
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Anderson Creek Timber is currently hauling logs from its property located just south of Nelson above the Rail Trail at Mountain Station. The work will continue for another three-to-four weeks, said Doug Thorburn, a forester with Monticola Forest Ltd. that manages Anderson Creek’s forest properties. … The 600-hectare Anderson Creek Timber property is private land and is therefore governed by B.C.’s Private Managed Forest Land Act, which provides much less regulation than the Forest Act in areas such as biodiversity, watershed protection, wildlife protection and harvest guidelines. …Anderson Creek Timber and Kalesnikoff, which has a public Crown land tenure over much of the Anderson Creek watershed, are working on a watershed assessment for the area… The reason the company has not done public information sessions about its logging plans … is that on privately owned land, compared with public land, there is less obligation to do so.
The Forest Enhancement Society of BC (FESBC) is accepting expressions of interest (EOI) for projects to assist the Province of British Columbia in advancing the environmental and resource stewardship of British Columbia’s forests. These projects must occur on provincial crown land and support one or more of the core purposes of the Society, which include:
ʼNa̱mǥis First Nation and the Province are one step closer to a joint decision-making agreement that will support predictable harvesting, job creation and sustainable forestry operations on the north Island. “The best way to move fibre is by working together and that is what we are accomplishing with the ʼNa̱mǥis First Nation,” said Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests. “I am optimistic that this draft agreement will create good-paying jobs and help us in our efforts to provide stability and certainty for our coastal forestry sector, as we deal with Donald Trump’s attack on our forestry sector.” ʼNa̱mǥis First Nation and the Province have developed a first-of-its-kind draft Section 7 joint decision-making agreement for the forestry sector under the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (Declaration Act) and Forest Range and Practices Act. 
The Chemainus River reveals its secrets in strange and unexpected ways. For years, I have wandered the forests near my North Cowichan home in search of the last few ancient trees, finding a few nice specimens here and there. In the heavily logged, 5,000-hectare Municipal Forest Reserve — popularly known as the Six Mountains, an hour north of Victoria — they are as elusive as the last rhinos of Sumatra. With a bit of luck, I hope my persistence may yet pay off. I don’t know it at the time, but my quest will launch me on a journey from the river’s headwaters to its mouth in pursuit of questions fundamental to the Chemainus and its future. How have human activities like industrial logging shaped the river, its watershed, and its salmon? …In my search for answers, I will discover modern challenges that bedevil other B.C. coastal rivers.
…the carcasses of 11 cattle were found on a logging road near Quesnel earlier this week… The owner of the animals, who holds tenure for an area of Crown land in B.C.’s Cariboo region, discovered the cows had ingested a nitrate-based fertilizer used in forestry to encourage tree growth, said Kevin Boon, of the B.C. Cattlemen’s Association. “They licked it, thinking it was salt, and died of nitrate poisoning,” he said. …Boon said the rancher … fears more may have been poisoned… The fertilizer is usually applied in the winter or early spring, while cows aren’t grazing in B.C.’s forests. It appears to have been done earlier this year, due to a “lack of understanding,” said Boon, emphasizing that it doesn’t appear to be deliberate. “When you have multiple tenure-holders on the land, there needs to be communication with the stakeholders,” he said. …B.C. Forests Ministry is aware of the situation and is investigating…
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A group of University of Toronto forestry students collected acorns from a giant White Oak tree at Queen’s Park on Wednesday as part of an effort to preserve the diversity of Toronto’s native trees. Eric Davies, a forest ecologist at the University of Toronto, led a group of undergraduate students in the university’s foresters club as they gathered about six litres of acorns from a tree in Queen’s Park North, one of four remaining large White Oaks in the park. White Oaks, a common deciduous tree species in North America, are the largest and oldest trees in the green spaces outside the Ontario Legislature. …Davies said timing is key, as White Oaks produce acorns about once every five to 10 years — this year being one of them. …Davies said the students will donate most of the acorns to the City of Toronto’s tree seed diversity program in the next two weeks. Some of the acorns will be kept at U of T to be grown there, he added.
THUNDER BAY — A number of stakeholders, largely from the forestry and energy sectors, got to provide regional input into a series of ongoing cross-province talks about energy policy. The Vaughn and Thunder Bay Chambers of Commerce held a roundtable discussion in the city on Oct. 2. The goal was for regional interests to provide requested input into an issues paper on energy being developed by the Toronto-based business lobby. …In Northwestern Ontario, she said, that includes longstanding sources like hydroelectricity and natural gas, but also continually-emerging opportunities connected to forestry and biomass. “We also talked a lot about the opportunities through the forest sector and biomass and the many things that can be created by harnessing forest products into energy,” Robinson said. “I think the most important thing was talking about how, from a forestry perspective, it really does check all the boxes.”