Kelly McCloskey
Robert McKellar
Over the past two years, Tree Frog has periodically turned to political risk consultant Robert McKellar to help readers better understand the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping the business environment in which the North American forest sector operates. In his feature Trump’s Second Term and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector, Robert explored how changing politics, government policy and international relations can create both risks and opportunities for forest companies. In doing so, he also introduced readers to the discipline of political risk management—a practical framework for anticipating and responding to an increasingly uncertain world.
Robert’s earlier articles generated thoughtful feedback and reinforced a common observation: the pace of global change is becoming increasingly difficult to follow. Every day seems to bring another headline about tariffs, trade disputes, wars, sanctions, shipping disruptions, energy prices, artificial intelligence, or some other geopolitical development. For many of us, the challenge is no longer keeping up with the news—it’s deciding what actually deserves our attention. Which developments are likely to influence markets, trade and investment in the forest sector? Which simply warrant monitoring? And which are little more than background noise? Those questions are central to political risk management. They are also questions we increasingly hear from readers trying to make sense of a relentless news cycle and what it means for their businesses and organizations.
In this article, Robert steps back from the daily headlines to explain how political risk professionals approach that challenge. His answer offers a practical framework for separating signal from noise—and a useful way of thinking about the global forces increasingly shaping the future of the forest sector.
Alberta’s forestry sector enters a second half of 2026 with cautious optimism, even as weak housing markets supply, U.S. tariffs and softwood lumber duties continue to weigh on the industry. Ken Greenway, Alberta Forestry and Parks’ executive director of strategy, policy and economics, said northern Alberta’s timber industry remains relatively stable compared to some other parts of Canada, where forestry communities have faced sharper contractions. “We haven’t seen huge disruptions,” Greenway said. “Pulp is a weak market and that’s an area of concern, but softwood products prices are slowly moving to the positive side.” …“It’s a cyclical market, we’re at the bottom of a cycle at the moment. The current contraction across Canada – we have not seen as much in Alberta. We hope to withstand this storm.” The industry is also becoming more involved in wildfire mitigation.
The Canadian lumber industry saw enormous price spikes during the pandemic years of 2020-2022, with costs close to triple what they are today for some products. … “We saw prices skyrocket during COVID, but so too did the cost to operate,” said Aspen Dudzic, the Alberta Forest Products Assocation’s communications director. “And interestingly, post-COVID, we saw the market prices for lumber go down, but the costs to operate have not come down in the same way.” Even though lumber costs have seen a huge drop in prices in a vacuum, why haven’t these cost savings been passed on to the consumer? …“The supply chain is really complex,” Dudzic said. “Nothing we do operates in a vacuum, so there’s a lot of other compounding costs that we have to look at, like inflationary pressures, upticks in fuel and energy prices. …Top of mind is the ongoing trade war with the US.
OTTAWA – The 2026 wildfire season has been manageable so far, largely because of significant amounts of rain across Western Canada, but federal officials cautioned Thursday the summer forecast is hotter and drier than normal in much of the country. … The southern Prairies and eastern Quebec have had more rain than usual this year, and it’s expected that above-average precipitation will continue in Alberta and the Northwest Territories. Forecasts for July and August are calling for higher than usual temperatures for Ontario, Quebec, northern parts of the Prairies and the territories. …The latest information from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre shows there have been 3,100 fires across the country so far this season, compared to around 2,900 at this time last year. …But the total area burned this year is less than last year, at around 12,000 square kilometres, down from 46,000 square kilometres.
People are invited to share their input and help guide the development of recommendations and long-term solutions for water supply and ecosystem health in the Goat River watershed. The Province of British Columbia, in partnership with yaqan nuʔkiy (Lower Kootenay Band) and the Regional District of Central Kootenay (RDCK), has launched a tripartite working group to address growing water-scarcity challenges in the Goat River watershed and develop recommendations for long-term water management in the Creston Valley. As part of the process, a survey will gather insights from community members, water users, farmers, industry and other interested parties about their vision for the Goat River watershed. The survey is available until Aug. 1, 2026. …The Goat River Watershed Collective Conversations Working Group brings together representatives from the Province, yaqan nuʔkiy and the RDCK. It will serve as a recommendation-making body, developing joint recommendations for consideration by yaqan nuʔkiy leadership, the RDCK board of directors and provincial ministries. 
…As some resource roads across the province fall into disrepair … outdoor groups are working to save them. 
Open letter to Premier David Eby, B.C.’s Minister of Forests, Ravi Parmar, spoke in Revelstoke about his hopes for sawmills, old- growth and caribou protection (recently). It is evident Parmar is misinformed about the issues critical to the Revelstoke community and other British Columbia residents, and is failing to act on your government’s commitments to climate action, environmental protection, and sustainability. When asked about protecting old-growth within the Revelstoke region, such as the Rainbow-Jordan Wilderness (RJW), Parmar stated: “What I wouldn’t support is just saving land for the sake of saving land and seeing mills close down.” That response demonstrated a lack of understanding of community priorities. …The minister’s comments also show a lack of understanding of the Old Growth Strategic Review, which your government commissioned and committed to implementing. Rather than perpetuating the volume-based resource extraction model, a shift to a value-added sustainable forestry is needed for the provincial economy and long-term employment opportunities.
COLORADO — A pilot from Sooke on Vancouver Island was killed after the helicopter he was flying while battling wildfires in Colorado crashed into a reservoir. The aircraft reportedly went down in the Silver Jack Reservoir, shortly after 5 p.m. Sunday. The Gunnison County Sheriff’s Office says a dive team recovered the body of 56-year-old Nicholas Dale of Sooke, BC, from the submerged helicopter. The sheriff’s office says the helicopter was battling the 148-square-kilometre Gold Mountain wildfire when the crash occurred. It said the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and Federal Aviation Administration are still investigating the incident. …The Associated Press reported that a procession of law enforcement vehicles carried Dale’s body to the city of Grand Junction, as residents turned out to express their gratitude to the fallen pilot and the thousands of firefighters still battling the blaze. …Dale was the fourth person killed in recent weeks while battling Colorado wildfires. 
Smoke from two major wildfires burning in British Columbia’s Fraser Canyon is leading to air quality warnings across parts of the province, with an emergency physician warning the health effects extend far beyond watery eyes and a scratchy throat. “It is considered to be one of the biggest public health threats that we face,” said Dr. Courtney Howard, who is also the president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association. … “The particulate matter in smoke that’s less than 2.5 microns can go all the way down into our lungs, and the ultrafine particles can actually cross over into our bloodstream,” she said. …Howard said scientists are only beginning to understand the long-term health effects of repeated wildfire smoke exposure because the research is still limited. “We don’t have good evidence on the long-term outcomes yet,” she said. But a small number of studies, according to Howard, have suggested possible links with high rates of brain cancer and lung cancer.
