Robert McKellar
Friday’s Tree Frog interview with political risk expert Robert McKellar drew exceptional interest—and for good reason. Given reader response and the ongoing fallout from Trump’s trade policies, we’re featuring it again for those who missed it. McKellar, who divides his time between Turkey and Canada, brings an international perspective to his analysis of Trump’s second-term trade environment and its implications for Canada’s forest sector. His message is clear: US protectionism is not a passing phase. The current tariff and duty structure reflects a broader nationalist realignment that will persist well beyond the Trump presidency. He notes it is unlikely that the upcoming USMCA review will restore pre-Trump-2 market access, and that while Washington is betting tariffs will attract new foreign investment, the result has instead been greater political risk.
McKellar also examines the recent US–China flare-up, concluding it is unlikely to reignite a full-scale trade war. Within the US, he observes that political momentum currently favours the US Lumber Coalition over homebuilders, but that balance could shift if housing affordability again becomes a political flashpoint. Should the housing crisis deepen, Trump has shown he’s willing to adjust course when broader political pressures outweigh protectionist instincts. For Canadian producers, diversification and value-added strategies remain essential—but slow to materialize. That reality underpins McKellar’s central question: “If that’s true—then what?” His answer calls for a fundamental shift in mindset—challenging the sector to rethink its future and chart a course less dependent on the US market. He concludes that companies should view political-risk awareness as a practical framework—linking foresight, market intelligence, and decision-making into a continuous process of adaptation. The tools already exist within most organizations, he says; the opportunity lies in using them more deliberately as part of everyday business planning.
It’s been a tough year for the lumber trade. With US housing starts unusually low, demand and prices for lumber are down — even as trade costs, especially for Canadian producers, keep rising. …The president’s goal is straightforward: to bolster the domestic lumber industry — a move U.S. producers welcome. “This is our market. America first, baby,” says Andrew Miller, chair of the US Lumber Coalition. “I don’t think Canadians get that through their thick head. This is America, not Canada. There’s nothing that obligates us to take dumped subsidized product at the expense of US producers.” …Free market advocates see it differently: They say tariffs hurt consumers and that the added costs will eventually be passed through in the form of higher prices. They also doubt the U.S. lumber sector can replace Canadian boards in a timely fashion. …Even Miller said using national security as a reason was merely a “sideshow.”
BURNABY, BC — Interfor announced today revised operating plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Due to persistently weak market conditions and ongoing economic uncertainty, Interfor will further temporarily reduce lumber production across its operations in British Columbia, Ontario, the US Pacific Northwest and the US South. These curtailments are expected to reduce lumber production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by approximately 250 million board feet, or 26%, as compared to the second quarter of 2025, which reflected a more normal operating stance. The curtailment volumes are approximately evenly split between Interfor’s Canadian and U.S. operations. …These curtailments are an amendment to Interfor’s previously announced curtailments on September 4, 2025. “Lumber prices in all regions of North America have continued to weaken, from already unsustainably low levels,” said Ian Fillinger, Interfor’s CEO. …While necessary, we fully recognize the impact these actions will have on our employees, contractors, suppliers and communities.”
British Columbia’s forest sector is at a crossroads — facing tough challenges, but also leading the way in solutions that matter most to our province: housing, wildfire resilience, reconciliation, and sustainable economic growth. At the 2026 COFI Convention, leaders from across industry, government, and Indigenous and community partners will come together to rebuild competitiveness and chart the future of a strong, sustainable forest sector. Join us in Vancouver for the largest forest sector gathering in Western Canada. April 8 – 10, 2026 at the JW Marriot Parq Vancouver
Friday was a good news, bad news day for Northern Ontario’s forest products sector. Folks in Kapukasing are breathing easier…the federal and provincial governments announced they’re contributing a total investment of $28.8 million to sustain the Kapuskasing paper mill for the short term. Broken down, the province is spending $16.8 million, while the feds are chipping in $12 million. …However, forestry’s shaky conditions have put another community in peril [with] Interfor indefinitely shutting down its Ear Falls sawmill. …Unifor is calling for immediate action involving all levels of government to develop an industrial strategy for the forestry sector… The Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association and the Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities issued a joint statement that “urgent and coordinated action is required to ensure long-term stability across Northern Ontario’s forestry and resource sectors.” The best outcome, the group said, is for government to strike a long-term trade deal with the U.S. to ensure economic and employment stability.
Alain Ouzilleau, owner of Groupe Cabico, spent millions upgrading his two factories in Quebec and Ontario into state-of-the-art facilities shipping around $100-million worth of high-end kitchen cabinets to the US each year. Almost overnight, that business has been thrown into jeopardy. …“We have very long-term loyal customers,” Mr. Ouzilleau said. “But the 50% that is planned to be effective January 1st is just a death sentence.” …Hundreds of other Canadian cabinet and furniture makers also stand to lose their key export business, with limited ability to expand in a crowded domestic market. …What started as tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles has expanded to include copper and lumber, with a tariff on heavy trucks slated to come into force in November. The Trump administration is also conducting investigations into aircraft, semiconductors and industrial machinery, among other industries, suggesting more tariffs are on the horizon. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
Lumber futures fell below $610 per thousand board feet, their lowest level since October 8 and down 12% from a three-year high in early August, as a slowing US housing market outweighed potential supply curbs from tariffs. August building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.33 million, the lowest since May 2020, while housing starts fell 8.5%, marking the fourth-lowest reading in over five years. Earlier this month, the US imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian lumber, with the Trump administration stating it aims to expand domestic timber harvesting and reduce reliance on foreign lumber. Looking ahead, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate construction and home buying and encourage homeowners to borrow for repairs and renovations, the largest driver of lumber demand. However, signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation suggest demand may remain subdued.
The Canadian government has opened applications for a $700 million loan guarantee program that helps lumber companies weather mounting US tariffs that have pushed some firms into bankruptcy. The Business Development Bank of Canada 
Prices of products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), increased 0.8% month over month in September and gained 5.5% year over year. Meanwhile, prices of raw materials purchased by manufacturers operating in Canada, as measured by the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), increased 1.7% month over month and rose 8.4% year over year. …Prices for lumber and other wood products declined 4.4% in September, after two straight monthly increases. The decrease was caused by falling softwood lumber prices (-10.7%), the largest decrease since June 2022. In August 2025, the United States announced a significant increase to the duties it levies on Canadian softwood lumber.
At the recent 2025 Vancouver Regional Construction Association (VRCA) 
The Forest Practices Board, an independent watchdog, is set to conduct an audit on a forestry operation near Port McNeill. The Aat’uu Forestry Limited Partnership’s Forest Licence A19236 in the Campbell River Natural Resource District of the North Island Timber Supply Area is the subject of the audit, starting on Oct. 20. “The audit will examine whether forestry activities carried out between Oct. 1, 2023, and Oct. 24, 2025, comply with the Forest and Range Practices Act and the Wildfire Act,” reads a press release from the Forest Practices Board. “Activities subject to audit include timber harvesting; road and bridge construction, maintenance, and deactivation; silviculture; wildfire protection; and related operational planning.” The Aat’uu Forestery Limited Partnership is a company owned by the Ehattesaht First Nation. It is managed by Strategic Natural Resource Group from an office in Campbell River.
The BC Forest History Association is pleased to welcome Dr. Barry Cooke, Research Scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, as our second speaker of 2025. Dr. Cooke is one of Canada’s leading experts on modeling insect outbreak processes and patterns, with more than 30 years of experience studying spruce budworm population dynamics and forest insect ecology. He has authored over 90 scientific publications, advancing our understanding of budworms, beetles, and other major forest pests through spatial simulation modeling. Join us for this free online presentation, “A History of Debate on Budworms: A BC Perspective.” Tuesday, October 21st 2025 – 7:00 to 8:00 PST 
Canada’s vast forests are the envy of much of the world, but they’ve seen brighter days. Our changing climate has beckoned wilder wildfires, disease and drought. And after decades of cutting big and fast to maximize profits, the country’s logging industry is in freefall. But there’s opportunity in crisis — or that’s the bet some First Nations in British Columbia are making. …“Now we’re dealing with a lot of scrub in that corner that we didn’t get to before,” Garry Merkel, a professional forester and a member of the Tahltan Nation. …In Manitoba, the forestry industry watched this summer as profits went up in smoke. Devastating fires burned more forest in logging areas than any year in recorded wildfire history, according to an analysis by Manitoba reporter Julia-Simone Rutgers. And forestry companies are “scared to death,” said.
Atlantic Canada’s wildfires are growing and a scientist at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) says the combination of climate change and regional forest management are making things worse. Anthony Taylor is a forestry expert at the UNB. He studies the impact of climate change and forest composition. “We should expect more weather like this into the future,” Taylor said. “That’s largely a consequence of inaction on climate change over the past 20 or 30 years.” Taylor said the weather and drought conditions in the Maritimes can be blamed on the climate change already baked into the system and people should expect more warming in coming decades. He said weather impacts wildfires more than any other variable but the next biggest factor is ignition. “More than 90 per cent of our fires that do occur, including this year, are from human ignition,” Taylor said. “Obviously we want to try to reduce and stop climate change but the next best thing after that is to be fire smart around the woods.”
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The man charged after an investigation into the largest wildfire in Nova Scotia history has been fined $25,000. Dalton Stewart, 23, chose not to speak when he was handed the sentence Thursday in Barrington provincial court. The sentence — a joint recommendation from the Crown and defence — also includes an order to complete educational training on wildfire prevention. 
Does your workplace safety program include steps to reduce the risks your drivers face when driving on the job in winter? It needs to. Your safety responsibilities don’t change with the seasons. But you do need to address the additional driving hazards created by winter road and weather conditions. Some of the biggest hazards for log haulers include: