Robert McKellar
Tree Frog:
A lot has changed in the six months since you wrote about political risk management in the Canadian forest products sector. In the media and thus the Tree Frog News, we’ve been hearing a lot about US lumber duties and tariffs and their potential impact on both sides of the border. But before we talk about that, can you comment on what’s changed from a political risk perspective?
Harmattan:
Back in August 2024, I pointed out that the sector had long enjoyed stability, largely because Canada’s primary market—the US—had been open, rational, and predictable. That sense of stability was rooted in a belief that even occasional trade disputes were manageable within a predictable framework. But as we noted then, political risk is not just about places, but also about periods, and things can change even in places we’re very used to. And yes, since that time, we’ve witnessed a dramatic evolution. …President Trump is now a critical variable in the fortunes of Canadian companies in the US, and indeed a major factor in the evolution of the international system. Getting a sense of the man and what he means is probably the most direct route to contextual insight for what follows. I’m not an expert on Trump or even US politics. But like most political risk consultants, I have been fascinated by his rise and character, and have kept an eye on the more discerning observations. What follows is a brief sketch.
WASHINGTON — President Trump is taking a blowtorch to the rules that have governed world trade for decades. The 
European industry is scrutinising the list of products drawn up by the European Commission in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminium, and not everyone is pleased. EU tariffs on American products are adversely affecting EU manufacturers of wines, plastics and pulp among other sectors relying on imported products hit by tariffs or caught as collateral victims of the trade war between both sides of the Atlantic. …The European pulp and paper industry has also reacted after seeing imports of the products from the US on the EU list. The EU imported €962 millions’ worth of pulp and €650 millions worth of paper and board from the US in 2023. In exchange European exports of pulp and paper and board were worth €238 million and €2.4 billion respectively. The sector has no interest in a trade war with the Americans. Jori Ringman, Director General, said that “EU and US consumers who need basic hygiene products” were going to be impacted as well as “a whole range of sectors using paper packaging.”
China suspended on Tuesday the soybean import licences of three U.S. firms and halted imports of U.S. logs, stepping up its retaliation for Donald Trump’s decision to impose an extra 10% duty on China. …The suspension of U.S. logs was a direct response to Trump’s move on March 1 to order a trade investigation on imported lumber. Trump had earlier told reporters that he was thinking about imposing a 25% tariff rate on lumber and forest products. “The announcement of import restrictions on U.S lumber and soybeans linked with phytosanitary issues follows a long history of similar measures by Beijing,” said Even Pay, agriculture analyst at Trivium China. …China is one of the world’s largest importers of wood products and the third-largest destination for U.S. forest products. It imported around $850 million worth of logs and other rough wood products from the U.S. in 2024, according to Chinese customs data.
BEIJING – China suspended on Tuesday the soybean import licenses of three U.S. firms and halted imports of U.S. lumber, stepping up retaliatory action after the United States imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods. Earlier in the day, China also imposed import levies covering $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and food products… Customs said it detected ergot and seed coating agent in imported U.S. soybeans while the suspension of U.S. lumber imports was due to the detection of small worms, aspergillus and other pests. …Beijing’s retaliatory measures were in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose an extra 10% duty on China, effective Tuesday, resulting in a cumulative 20% tariff in response to what the White House considers Chinese inaction over drug flows. …The suspension of U.S. lumber was a direct response to Trump’s move on March 1 to order a trade investigation on imported lumber. 
U.S. President Donald Trump in an all-caps post on Truth Social Thursday teased a new round of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, matching the higher rates other nations charge to import American goods. …Reciprocal tariffs were one of Trump’s core campaign pledges — his method for evening the score with foreign nations that place taxes on American goods and to solve what he has said are unfair trade practices. …He is set to share more details on the tariffs ahead of his visit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday. …The tariffs are likely to hit developing countries hardest, especially India, Brazil, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian and African countries, given that they have some of the widest differences in tariff rates charged on U.S. goods brought into their countries compared to what the U.S. charges them.
Reciprocal tariffs are straightforward in theory: The U.S. would pose the same levies on imported goods from a given country that the other country imposes on their U.S. imports. But it gets far murkier in practice, as countries often charge different tariffs on different classes of goods. Goldman Sachs economists outlined three approaches Trump could take. “Country-level reciprocity” is the “simplest” strategy which would have the U.S. impose the same average tariffs. “Product-level reciprocity by country” would have the U.S. place marching tariffs on a good-by-good basis by trading partner.” Reciprocity including non-tariff barriers” is the “most difficult” approach as it would encompass a complicated web of inputs including inspection fees and value-added taxes. …4.8% is the U.S.’ weighted average tariff rate if Trump implemented the country-level strategy. …Goods from the 20 countries the U.S. has free trade agreements with, including Australia, Canada, Mexico and Panama, won’t be affected – though Trump has targeted several of those countries in recent weeks.
NEW YORK — Mercer International reported fourth quarter 2024 net income of $16.7 million compared to a net loss of $87.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a net loss of $17.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. Q4 revenues were $488 million, down from $502 million in Q3, 2024 but up from $470 million in Q4, 2023. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “In the fourth quarter of 2024, softwood pulp prices remained strong, decreasing slightly from recent record prices.” …Hardwood pulp prices in China and North America decreased in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the market absorbed capacity increases from earlier in the year. …Lumber sales realizations increased, driven by modestly higher prices in the U.S. market, while in Europe, prices remained stable. 
The U.S. market accounts for 5-10% of Sweden’s forest industry exports, depending on the segment, meaning the direct impact of potential new tariffs remains limited, said Christian Nielsen, market analyst for wood products at Swedish Forest Industries Federation. The U.S. relies on imports for 25% of its lumber consumption, primarily from Canada. Higher tariffs on Canadian wood could raise costs for American consumers while improving the competitive position of European suppliers. However, Nielsen noted that future tariffs directly targeting EU exports remain uncertain. In the pulp and paper sector, the U.S. could rely entirely on domestic production, reducing the need for imports. Sweden currently exports 7% of its pulp and 5% of its paper and board products to the US. In total, Sweden exports 92% of its paper and board production, and global trade flows could be affected by tariff changes. [END]
Japan’s timber industry is seeing notable changes, with predictions of a drop in log imports and varying trends in lumber imports. These shifts are influenced by economic factors, environmental concerns, and policy decisions affecting how Japan uses timber. The Japan Lumber Importers Association has shared its predictions for wood imports, expecting a 13% decrease in log imports for 2024. …While log imports are expected to decline, the situation with lumber imports is more complex. In 2024, lumber imports are projected to increase by 17.2%. However, in the first half of 2025, a 12.5% decrease is expected compared to the same period the previous year. Several factors influence these mixed trends… Japan’s housing starts decreased by 4.6% year-over-year in 2023, with owner-occupied housing falling by 11.4%. These changes directly impact the demand for lumber, influencing import volumes.
High Point, N.C. — After a successful first year, British Columbia wood expert 
The cement industry is at a crossroads as decarbonization is expected to take its toll, resulting in a significant decline in demand, according to a paper by the World Cement Association (WCA). “The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation,” explains WCA CEO Ian Riley. “As we move towards a decarbonized future, understanding the true demand for cement is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies and investments align with reality.” The white paper examines disruptive factors such as alternative materials. …The report challenges prevailing forecasts and projects demand for cement and clinker will dip, mainly due to the rise of timber, greater use of admixtures, the move towards decarbonization of the industry as well as design practices that will reduce the concrete used. ..According to the paper, timber has replaced concrete and steel in many highrise buildings but limitations on the supply of timber are expected to curb its growth.
A 13-storey high-rise approved for development in Sydney is slated to become the tallest commercial mass timber building in New South Wales. The building has been designed by architecture and urban design practice Tzannes for property developer NGI Investments. …The weight of the building was a significant consideration during the design process. The structure needed to be lightweight as the site is located above subterranean railway tunnels. Tzannes’s approach for addressing has involved transferring the load from the building’s western side to a central core using a hybrid concrete and steel structure. This system then supports 12 timber commercial floors, with 11 levels rising above the load transfer structure and one suspended below. According to a communique issued by Tzannes, “all timber and steel elements will be crafted for future disassembly and reuse.”
FRANKFURT – Bayer has told U.S. lawmakers it could stop selling Roundup weedkiller unless they can strengthen legal protection against product liability litigation, according to a financial analyst and a person close to the matter. Bayer has paid about $10 billion to settle disputed claims that Roundup, based on the herbicide glyphosate, causes cancer. About 67,000 further cases are pending for which the group has set aside $5.9 billion in legal provisions. The German company has said plaintiffs should not be able to take Bayer to court by invoking U.S. state rules given the federal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has repeatedly labelled the product as safe to use, as have regulators in other parts of the world. “Without regulatory clarity (Bayer) will need to exit the business. Bayer have been clear with legislators and farmer groups on this,” analysts at brokerage Jefferies said in a note on Thursday, citing guidance Bayer’s leadership provided in a meeting.
Large, undisturbed forests are better for harboring biodiversity than fragmented landscapes, according to University of Michigan research. Ecologists agree that habitat loss and the fragmentation of forests reduces biodiversity in the remaining fragments. But ecologists don’t agree whether it’s better to focus on preserving many smaller, fragmented tracts of land or larger, continuous landscapes. The 
In wild Tasmania there are trees whose direct ancestors lived with dinosaurs. Many of those alive today are thousands of years old, and some have been growing for ten millennia or more. They are mostly hard to reach, hidden in forest valleys or on remote mountains, survivors of human greed and fire.
In 2006, Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s government passed the Public Forest Management Law, implementing a forest concession scheme designed to regulate and legalize logging activities in Brazil’s forest — in particular, the Amazon. Forest management consists of removing a small number of trees whose species are valued in the market. After that, the area can only be explored again in 30 to 40 years, following its regeneration cycle. Behind on its concessions targets, the current government wants to almost quadruple the current area of federal concessions by 2026. Even though it is different from deforestation, timber management has never been seen as a way to conserve the forest by traditional peoples.
The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to prevent deforestation-linked products from entering the EU market. This study assesses the potential impacts of the EUDR on global forest product markets using the FOrest Resource Outlook Model (FOROM). We simulate two scenarios: the baseline EUDR, focused on commodity-driven deforestation and urbanization, and an extended EUDR+ scenario, which includes shifting agriculture. The results indicate that high-deforestation countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are expected to face significant reductions in roundwood production and exports, with downstream effects on sawnwood and panel prices. In contrast, low-deforestation countries like Canada and the United States may experience slight increases in production to meet EU demand, but their impact is limited by moderate deforestation rates. The study also highlights the potential for market leakage, where deforestation-linked products may shift to non-EU markets, potentially undermining global environmental goals. 
Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target. The department solicited feedback… to determine what Canada’s internationally binding 2035 pollution reduction obligations should be. …The results found that overcoming polarization is a major hurdle to implementing aggressive emissions reductions that climate scientists say is required to avoid catastrophic warming. About two-thirds of Canadians who participated support stronger measures to address climate change. “There was little middle ground, and very few people were satisfied with the status quo,” according to the findings. …When asked if the federal government is doing enough to fight climate change, 47% believe Canada needs to do more, compared to 36% that feel existing measures go too far. …Polarization is gripping the country and the centre isn’t holding, Environment and Climate Change Canada found when setting the country’s latest emissions reduction target.
The Government has announced a new support mechanism for sustainable biomass generation post-2027. From 2027, Drax and other eligible large-scale biomass generators will be supported via a lowcarbon dispatchable CfD (Contract for Difference). If approved, the plan will keep the power station running until 2031. Under this proposed agreement, Drax Power Station can step in to increase generation when there isn’t enough electricity, helping to avoid the need to use more gas or import power from Europe. When there’s too much electricity on the UK grid, Drax can reduce generation, helping to balance the system. Importantly, the mechanism will result in a net saving for consumers. …The agreement also prioritises biomass sustainability. Drax supports these developments and will continue to engage with the UK Government on the implementation of any future reporting requirements.
The UK government has agreed a new funding arrangement with the controversial wood-burning Drax power station that it says will cut subsidies in half. …The new agreement will run from 2027 to 2031 and will see the power station only used as a back-up to cheaper renewable sources of power. …The government says the company currently receives nearly a billion pounds a year in subsidies and and predicts that figure will more than halve to £470m under the new deal. …The new agreement also states that 100% of the wood pellets Drax burns must be “sustainably sourced” and that “material sourced from primary and old growth forests” will not be able to receive support payments. All the pellets Drax burns are imported, with most of them coming from the USA and Canada. BBC has previously reported that Drax held logging licences in British Columbia, and used wood, including whole trees, from primary forests for its pellets.
Sweden might fail to meet its and the EU’s carbon neutrality targets after recent environmental policy shifts, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned in a report published Wednesday. Long considered a champion in environmental protection and the fight against climate change, the Scandinavian country has set a goal of net zero emissions by 2045, five years ahead of the European Union’s target. But Sweden might not be able meet either of those goals, according to a review conducted by the OECD, a 38-member group of mostly developed nations. “Over the last decade, the country has cut its greenhouse gas emissions faster than the EU average,” the report said. “However, recent policy shifts, particularly in the transport sector, have put into question Sweden’s ability to meet EU and domestic climate targets.” …In January, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) criticised Sweden for not adequately protecting primary and old-growth forests from logging.
Denmark has long been praised for its transition to renewable energy, with renewable energy use rising from 6% in 1990 to 42.8% in 2022. However, behind this achievement lies an overdependence on woody biomass, which now accounts for up to 68% of its total renewable energy use. This growth has been sustained through direct and indirect subsidies, often exceeding those allocated to wind and solar energy. Denmark’s dependence on woody biomass is largely fuelled by imports from Estonia and Latvia. The country ranks among the largest, if not the largest, importer of woody biomass from the Baltic region, with 52% of its wood chips and pellets coming from these two nations. …Intensive logging is also devastating Estonian and Latvian bird populations. 
LONDON, March 12 – British energy regulator Ofgem said on Wednesday that it had not found evidence of a breach of sustainability obligations by power company Drax, in the watchdog’s review of reports prepared by auditor KPMG. Renewable power generators in Britain can receive renewable obligation (RO) certificates which can then be sold to energy suppliers who use them to sell renewable electricity products to customers. For biomass power plants to qualify for the certificates they must show at least 70% of their biomass fuel comes from sustainable sources. Green groups have long criticised the sustainability credentials of biomass power plants, which burn wood pellets to generate electricity. In 2023, regulator Ofgem opened an investigation into whether Drax was in breach of annual reporting requirements under the RO scheme. Ofgem said it reviewed over 3,000 documents and did not find evidence to support claims that sustainability obligations had been breached.
The harvesting and burning of forest biomass to produce energy continues to surge, according to a new report entitled 
Norwegian forestry companies are making history by revolutionizing how timber is transported. Beginning in 2027, Viken AT Market and AT Skog will be the first in the forestry industry to ship timber on zero-emission vessels—a game-changing move that signals a dramatic shift toward sustainable maritime logistics. This breakthrough is made possible through a partnership with Skarv Shipping, which will provide vessels powered by ammonia and electricity, significantly reducing emissions compared to conventional diesel-powered ships. Norway’s timber industry plays a crucial role in the country’s economy, exporting approximately 1 million tons of timber annually to European markets. However, most of this transport has relied on traditional diesel-powered vessels, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. In an effort to push the industry forward, Viken AT Market is committing to zero-emission transport, securing a long-term shipping agreement with Skarv Shipping and Arriva Shipping.
In December 2024, Drax and Pathway Energy announced a multiyear deal that could see Drax supplying upward of 1 million metric tons of wood pellets to Pathway’s currently proposed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant on the U.S. Gulf Coast. In the months leading up to the announcement, Drax had hinted at such prospects, indicating plans to develop a pipeline of biomass sales opportunities in North America, including in the SAF market. Drax CEO Will Gardiner confirmed as much during a November quarterly earnings call. Currently, Drax has 17 operational wood pellet production plants across North America and a 450,000-metric-ton facility under construction in Longview, Washington. While Drax is well known in the industrial wood pellet industry, Pathway Energy is a new and unique market participant. Pellet Mill Magazine interviewed Pathway Energy CEO Steve Roberts to introduce the company, technology and plans.
Turkey is poor in oil and gas while its renewable energy sector is heavily reliant on a mix of hydro, wind and solar. But another element is heating up: biofuel – fuel derived directly from biomass, such as wood or plant matter – is gaining interest domestically and creating an export market not available to other renewables. Demand for and output of biomass pellets used in stoves, furnaces and heaters as an alternative to coal or wood to cope with Turkey’s often freezing winters have increased in recent years. Produced by crushing and compressing wood waste, the pellets have a higher per-kilo energy output than gas, coal or oil, and far lower emission levels, according to promoters. Studies estimate Turkey has the raw material to produce up to 1.8 million tonnes of pellets annually, although installed processing capacity has yet to reach this level.
LONDON – The UK government and Drax, opens new tab have agreed a deal that will halve the energy producer’s subsidies over 2027-2031, while ensuring the group uses more sustainable sources of woody biomass, the two sides said on Monday. Drax is Britain’s largest renewable power generator. With the help of government subsidies that run until 2027, it has converted four former coal plants to use biomass to provide around 6% of the country’s electricity. Following a consultation on extending the subsidies, the government said it “cannot allow Drax to operate in the way it has done before or with the level of subsidy it received in the past”. “Biomass currently plays an important role in our energy system, but we are conscious of concerns about sustainability and the level of subsidy biomass plants have received in the past,” Energy Minister Michael Shanks said in a statement, which did not disclose the exact figures of the subsidy.
Authorities in Japan have warned that the country’s biggest wildfire in decades is likely to spread, after it damaged dozens of homes and forced more than 1,000 people to flee. Fires continued to rage a week after they broke out in the city of Ofunato, on the north-east coast, with weather officials speculating that this year’s unusually dry winter and strong winds were to blame. As of Monday, the fire had spread through about 2,100 hectares of land, damaged 84 homes and forced 1,200 residents to take refuge in school gymnasiums and other shelters. A further 2,000 are staying with friends or relatives. …More than 2,000 self-defence force [SDF] troops and firefighters have struggled to control the flames as they spread through heavily forested mountainous areas bordering Ofunato, which was among communities destroyed in the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
MORIOKA, JAPAN — One person has died, and more than 80 homes appear to have burned down after a wildfire broke out in a northeastern Japan city, local authorities said Thursday, as the region faced its third fire in about a week. Since Wednesday, the blaze has scorched more than 600 hectares in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, the municipal government said. With the fire still spreading, about 3,300 residents have been ordered to evacuate. Firefighters battled the blaze through the night, while helicopters were deployed in the morning to contain it from the air. The Fire and Disaster Management Agency requested emergency support from firefighting departments in eight nearby prefectures, and they sent about 690 personnel combined. …Efforts to contain the blaze Wednesday were carried out at ground level as the strong winds precluded waterbombing by helicopters. When the latest fire broke out, strong wind and dry air warnings were in place in the area.