Kevin Mason
As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date. Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising!
For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts. On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.
Canada aims to establish duty-free access for up to 95 per cent of its exports to Indonesia over the next eight to 12 months, International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said, after signing a trade agreement. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is Canada’s first in the economically crucial Indo-Pacific region since 
NEW ZEALAND — News that US President Trump imposed a tariff of 10 percent on imported timber has come as a relief to industry, which expected a higher figure. Mark Ross, chief executive of the Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association, said it was a relief as they thought it would be higher. “We’ve been working through the essential impact of a tariff on our products since March this year so it wasn’t a shock because we were, at one point, expecting a 50% tariff. “So 10% is a bit of relief. It is still going to have a financial impact on the wood processing industry in New Zealand. …Ross said they were working with exporters to work out how to handle the extra costs. …Ross said the United States was New Zealand’s third-largest export market and continued to grow.
From October 14, wooden furniture exported to the United States will continue to be subject to a new import tariff of up to 25 percent. This has come as a “shock” at a time when enterprises are accelerating production, raising concerns over the feasibility of maintaining Vietnam’s 2025 wood export targets. In the long term, aside from adapting to frequently changing tariff policies, enterprises in the wood industry are working to improve product quality. Expanding markets and building the Vietnamese wood brand are considered key solutions for the sector’s sustainable development. On September 29, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a decree imposing a 25 percent tariff on wooden furniture, effective from October 14. The tariff rate may increase to 50 percent for dressing tables and kitchen cabinets, and 30 percent for upholstered products early next year. This move is regarded as a “shock” to Vietnam’s wood industry.
The European Commission proposed preliminary antidumping duties on imports of softwood plywood from Brazil, following an investigation launched 
On 31 July 2025, Metsä Group announced it would launch the planning of a EUR 300 million cost savings and profit improvement programme. Planning is now complete, and Metsä Group will initiate statutory negotiations concerning its personnel as part of it. “Our profitability has been undermined by three factors. First, increased uncertainties in global trade have reduced demand for our products. Second, changes in exchange rates have weakened our result and will continue to do so. Third, the increase in raw material costs and the general cost level has eroded our profitability,” says Jussi Vanhanen, President and CEO of Metsä Group. …According to preliminary assessments, the planned measures may lead to a permanent reduction of 800 permanent jobs. A significant share – 540 jobs – are expected to be in Finland. In addition to redundancies, the planned changes may lead to changes in duties.
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China’s pulp and paper industry continues to expand at an unprecedented pace, with new mill projects, advanced technologies, and state-backed financing driving record output. What began as a push to meet domestic demand has now evolved into an era of overcapacity and a structural imbalance that is reshaping trade dynamics, pricing strategies, and sustainability priorities worldwide. This expansion has far-reaching effects: global producers are contending with lower-priced exports, disrupted supply chains, and a shifting balance of power that challenges traditional market leaders in North America and Europe. …Industry observers expect consolidation in China’s pulp and paper sector, as smaller and less efficient mills struggle to survive. Strategic investments in transparency, benchmarking, and efficiency will be crucial for staying competitive in a tightening global market.
The UK timber industry is currently experiencing a crisis, even as it reports record sales of softwood, raising concerns over supply chain challenges, rising costs, and sustainability issues. The surge in softwood sales, particularly in the construction and woodworking sectors, has overshadowed the ongoing difficulties facing the industry. While the demand for timber has been high, particularly due to the growing construction boom and a shift toward more sustainable building materials, the challenges related to timber shortages and price increases remain deeply concerning for businesses across the sector. …The Timber Trade Federation (TTF) reports that softwood sales in the UK reached record levels in 2024. However, one of the most pressing issues facing the UK timber sector is the disruption of supply chains. The UK has faced considerable difficulty in securing a steady supply of raw timber. The global timber shortage has exacerbated the situation.
US civil society groups are urging the European Commission to resist Washington’s pressure to delay the EU’s deforestation regulation (EUDR) or tweak the rules to grant the country preferential treatment, according to a letter seen by Euractiv. The missive, sent this morning to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Commissioners responsible for green rules, the economy and trade, warns against any backtracking. “We are particularly concerned by the Commission’s apparent willingness to offer the U.S. special treatment under the EUDR as part of ongoing EU-U.S. trade negotiations,” the letter reads. The organisations refer to the joint statement issued by Brussels and Washington in September, which labels the US as posing “negligible risk to global deforestation.” Rick Jacobsen, senior manager for commodities policy at the US NGO Environmental Investigation Agency, told Euractiv that US interests have “ramped up the pressure campaign” to weaken the law before it even comes into force.
Europe’s sawn timber industry is grappling with growing strategic uncertainty and rising compliance costs while the EU prepares to delay implementation of its landmark anti-deforestation law for a second time. While the postponement of the regulation to December 2026 may offer temporary relief, it also threatens to erode market incentives for early adopters and undermine confidence in the bloc’s regulatory direction. Producers across the continent have already invested billions of euros to meet the regulation’s demanding traceability requirements—developing digital platforms, upgrading Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, and restructuring supply chains to prove that every cubic meter of wood originates from deforestation-free sources. …In a strongly worded letter to the EC’s Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall, a 
Major agri-food companies including Nestle, Ferrero and Olam Agri have warned that European Union delays to its anti-deforestation law are endangering forests worldwide. The EU last month proposed delaying the launch of its anti-deforestation law for a second time, citing concerns about the readiness of information-technology systems needed to support the law. The delay could postpone the ban on imports of commodities such as palm oil linked to forest destruction for another year. The law faces major opposition from industry and EU trade partners such as the United States and Brazil. EU Commissioner Jessika Roswall said last week the delay was not linked to U.S. concerns about the policy. …Contrary to the EU’s aim of simplifying rules for business, any changes at this stage would introduce uncertainty, annoy shareholders and risk the rules being watered down further, the companies said. The EU deforestation law was due to take effect on December 30.
The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) has suspended its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Ltd. (APRIL) and its corporate group, effective immediately. FSC was recently informed of serious allegations of violence involving Toba Pulp Lestari (TPL), a member of APRIL’s corporate group, and an Indigenous community in North Sumatra, Indonesia. These allegations, which include reports of attacks on community members, if confirmed, would be contrary to the intent and commitments of the MoU. FSC will consider lifting the suspension if an independent investigation is conducted which identifies the root causes of the conflict, and results in the transparent implementation of corrective measures in line with the Remedy Framework. Failure to demonstrate meaningful progress may lead to the termination of the MoU. 
A breakthrough in the creation of an oral contraceptive for wildlife has been made by British researchers – in a significant step towards ethical grey squirrel management. Scientists at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) have achieved infertility in rats through free feeding of an oral immunocontraceptive, and say initial studies show the formula has also succeeded in attaining a reaction in grey squirrels. Funded by the UK Squirrel Accord (UKSA), the research will develop a vaccine-based contraceptive and species-specific feeder to reduce grey squirrel numbers for the protection of UK red squirrels, trees and woodland ecosystems. …Fertility control is used as a safe and non-lethal option to tackle wildlife problems. …This contraceptive affects an animal’s immune system to prevent it creating the sex hormones and causes infertility in both males and females. Developing a formula that can survive the body’s digestive processes and make it into the bloodstream is a real challenge._-_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86_%D9%82%D9%85.JPG)
SPAIN — This summer has been marked by particularly severe forest fires in the northwestern region of Galicia, and locals have called for the revival of a once-common practice of burning undergrowth in the winter, Reuters reports. Hotter, drier summers mean more widespread and destructive forest fires, and locals and experts have called for controlled burning and other forest management methods to prevent such large-scale fires. In southern Galicia, the summer of 2025 brought the worst forest fires in 30 years. …Just a few weeks ago, the flames destroyed 190 square kilometers around the village where Perez lives. …Forestry experts and political leaders have said that a lack of investment in forest management and fire prevention over the past two decades has made the situation so dire. Victor Resco, at Leiden University, said that a new approach was needed across Europe at a time when fires are increasingly occurring closer to populated areas.
GENEVA — Heat-trapping carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere jumped by the highest amount on record last year, soaring to a level not seen in human civilization and “turbo-charging” the Earth’s climate and causing more extreme weather, the United Nations weather agency said Wednesday. The World Meteorological Organization said in its latest bulletin on greenhouse gases, an annual study released ahead of the U.N.’s annual climate conference, that CO2 growth rates have now tripled since the 1960s, and reached levels that existed more than 800,000 years ago. Emissions from burning coal, oil and gas, alongside more wildfires, have helped fan a “vicious climate cycle,” and people and industries continue to spew heat-trapping gases while the planet’s oceans and forests lose their ability to absorb them, the WMO report said.
In 2024, the Amazon Rainforest underwent its most devastating forest fire season in more than two decades. According to a new study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, the fire-driven forest degradation released an estimated 791 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2024, a sevenfold increase compared with the previous two years. The carbon emissions from fires in 2024 surpassed those from deforestation for the first time on record. Brazil was the largest contributor, accounting for 61% of these emissions, followed by Bolivia with 32%, the study found. “The escalating fire occurrence, driven by climate change and unsustainable land use, threatens to push the Amazon towards a catastrophic tipping point,” the authors write. …The researchers estimated that the total emissions from deforestation and fire-driven degradation in the Amazon in 2024 was 1,416 million metric tons of CO2. This is higher than Japan’s CO2 emissions in 2022, which ranked fifth after China, the U.S., India and Russia.
The failure of carbon offsets to cut planet-heating pollution is “not due to a few bad apples”, a 
Josep “Pep” Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, says he believes countries large and small need to think twice before pledging to collectively plant billions of trees as a primary emissions-reduction strategy to meet climate action goals. “We have somehow sold reforestation as an easier path [to fighting climate change], and it’s not easy at all,” Canadell said. “In my view, it’s not even easier than carbon capture and storage, a technology we’re still developing. That’s because when you bring humans into landscapes and try managing these landscapes, this stuff becomes very complex.” Canadell is the co-author of a 
AUSTRALIA — The Federal Government’s National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy 
The biggest trees in the Amazon are growing larger and more numerous, according to a new study that shows how an intact rainforest can help draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and sequester it in bark, trunk, branch and root. Scientists said 
South Australia’s forestry industry says it can turn its timber waste into aviation and shipping fuel as part of the country’s move away from diesel fuels. The federal government has placed the development and implementation of biofuels as a key pillar of its 2035 climate targets. It also