Kevin Mason
As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date. Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising!
For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts. On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.
NEW ZEALAND — News that US President Trump imposed a tariff of 10 percent on imported timber has come as a relief to industry, which expected a higher figure. Mark Ross, chief executive of the Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association, said it was a relief as they thought it would be higher. “We’ve been working through the essential impact of a tariff on our products since March this year so it wasn’t a shock because we were, at one point, expecting a 50% tariff. “So 10% is a bit of relief. It is still going to have a financial impact on the wood processing industry in New Zealand. …Ross said they were working with exporters to work out how to handle the extra costs. …Ross said the United States was New Zealand’s third-largest export market and continued to grow.
From October 14, wooden furniture exported to the United States will continue to be subject to a new import tariff of up to 25 percent. This has come as a “shock” at a time when enterprises are accelerating production, raising concerns over the feasibility of maintaining Vietnam’s 2025 wood export targets. In the long term, aside from adapting to frequently changing tariff policies, enterprises in the wood industry are working to improve product quality. Expanding markets and building the Vietnamese wood brand are considered key solutions for the sector’s sustainable development. On September 29, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a decree imposing a 25 percent tariff on wooden furniture, effective from October 14. The tariff rate may increase to 50 percent for dressing tables and kitchen cabinets, and 30 percent for upholstered products early next year. This move is regarded as a “shock” to Vietnam’s wood industry.
The European Commission proposed preliminary antidumping duties on imports of softwood plywood from Brazil, following an investigation launched 
On 31 July 2025, Metsä Group announced it would launch the planning of a EUR 300 million cost savings and profit improvement programme. Planning is now complete, and Metsä Group will initiate statutory negotiations concerning its personnel as part of it. “Our profitability has been undermined by three factors. First, increased uncertainties in global trade have reduced demand for our products. Second, changes in exchange rates have weakened our result and will continue to do so. Third, the increase in raw material costs and the general cost level has eroded our profitability,” says Jussi Vanhanen, President and CEO of Metsä Group. …According to preliminary assessments, the planned measures may lead to a permanent reduction of 800 permanent jobs. A significant share – 540 jobs – are expected to be in Finland. In addition to redundancies, the planned changes may lead to changes in duties.
Ikea is increasing the amount of products it makes in the US as the world’s largest home furnishings retailer comes under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on furniture and kitchen cabinets. The flat-pack retailer, which made revenues of $5.5bn in the US last year, currently produces only about 15% of products that it sells in the US domestically. That compares with 75% local production in Europe and 80% in Asia. “We want to continue to expand in the US and Canada — how do we optimise a good supply set-up where we secure the right access to materials, to components, to production? That’s very long-term work that we’re doing,” Jon Abrahamsson Ring, chief executive of Inter Ikea. Trump imposed tariffs of between 10% and 50% on imports of foreign furniture and wood products. Ikea, which is responsible for about 1% of total industrial production, is set to take a significant hit. ){kind=logo}
China’s pulp and paper industry continues to expand at an unprecedented pace, with new mill projects, advanced technologies, and state-backed financing driving record output. What began as a push to meet domestic demand has now evolved into an era of overcapacity and a structural imbalance that is reshaping trade dynamics, pricing strategies, and sustainability priorities worldwide. This expansion has far-reaching effects: global producers are contending with lower-priced exports, disrupted supply chains, and a shifting balance of power that challenges traditional market leaders in North America and Europe. …Industry observers expect consolidation in China’s pulp and paper sector, as smaller and less efficient mills struggle to survive. Strategic investments in transparency, benchmarking, and efficiency will be crucial for staying competitive in a tightening global market.
The UK timber industry is currently experiencing a crisis, even as it reports record sales of softwood, raising concerns over supply chain challenges, rising costs, and sustainability issues. The surge in softwood sales, particularly in the construction and woodworking sectors, has overshadowed the ongoing difficulties facing the industry. While the demand for timber has been high, particularly due to the growing construction boom and a shift toward more sustainable building materials, the challenges related to timber shortages and price increases remain deeply concerning for businesses across the sector. …The Timber Trade Federation (TTF) reports that softwood sales in the UK reached record levels in 2024. However, one of the most pressing issues facing the UK timber sector is the disruption of supply chains. The UK has faced considerable difficulty in securing a steady supply of raw timber. The global timber shortage has exacerbated the situation.
Several parliamentarians, key industry players and alternative materials start-ups in hemp, engineered bamboo and engineered timber attended an event designed to focus a spotlight on the new world of possibilities in building materials. The WWF and Forest Alliance NSW event was intended to showcase sustainable alternatives to timber products …with the protection of the proposed Great Koala National Park at the centre of conversations. The event was further by the Parliamentary Friends of Forests. Attending as exhibitors were House of Bamboo, Hemp Inside, Bamboo Society Australia, Australian Hemp Council, iHempNSW, BVN Architecture and betti & knutt. While XLAM … was originally on the list of presenters, an industry source says the pressure from forestry sources had forced the company to pull out. …Susie Russell was particularly inspired by House of Bamboo, realizing that similar products to timber can be made from bamboo, which only takes five years to grow.
US civil society groups are urging the European Commission to resist Washington’s pressure to delay the EU’s deforestation regulation (EUDR) or tweak the rules to grant the country preferential treatment, according to a letter seen by Euractiv. The missive, sent this morning to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Commissioners responsible for green rules, the economy and trade, warns against any backtracking. “We are particularly concerned by the Commission’s apparent willingness to offer the U.S. special treatment under the EUDR as part of ongoing EU-U.S. trade negotiations,” the letter reads. The organisations refer to the joint statement issued by Brussels and Washington in September, which labels the US as posing “negligible risk to global deforestation.” Rick Jacobsen, senior manager for commodities policy at the US NGO Environmental Investigation Agency, told Euractiv that US interests have “ramped up the pressure campaign” to weaken the law before it even comes into force.
SWEDEN — Ingka Investments, the investment arm of Ingka Group (the largest IKEA retailer), has agreed to acquire approximately 153,000 hectares of land in Latvia and Estonia, of which 89% are forestland, from Södra, Sweden’s largest forest owners’ association. Completion is subject to approval by the relevant regulatory authorities. “Our unique ownership structure allows us to invest with a long-term perspective rather than short-term quarterly thinking.” …As the world’s largest IKEA retailer, Ingka Group operates in 31 markets and represents 87% of global IKEA sales. …Niks Sauva, Country Manager, Ingka Investments Latvia, continued: “We’re committed to creating more value locally in the Baltics. Our goal is to increase the share of wood processed regionally to strengthen the Baltic forestry value chain.” …Completion is subject to approval by the relevant authorities in Latvia and Estonia.
Europe’s sawn timber industry is grappling with growing strategic uncertainty and rising compliance costs while the EU prepares to delay implementation of its landmark anti-deforestation law for a second time. While the postponement of the regulation to December 2026 may offer temporary relief, it also threatens to erode market incentives for early adopters and undermine confidence in the bloc’s regulatory direction. Producers across the continent have already invested billions of euros to meet the regulation’s demanding traceability requirements—developing digital platforms, upgrading Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, and restructuring supply chains to prove that every cubic meter of wood originates from deforestation-free sources. …In a strongly worded letter to the EC’s Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall, a 
Major agri-food companies including Nestle, Ferrero and Olam Agri have warned that European Union delays to its anti-deforestation law are endangering forests worldwide. The EU last month proposed delaying the launch of its anti-deforestation law for a second time, citing concerns about the readiness of information-technology systems needed to support the law. The delay could postpone the ban on imports of commodities such as palm oil linked to forest destruction for another year. The law faces major opposition from industry and EU trade partners such as the United States and Brazil. EU Commissioner Jessika Roswall said last week the delay was not linked to U.S. concerns about the policy. …Contrary to the EU’s aim of simplifying rules for business, any changes at this stage would introduce uncertainty, annoy shareholders and risk the rules being watered down further, the companies said. The EU deforestation law was due to take effect on December 30.
The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) has suspended its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Ltd. (APRIL) and its corporate group, effective immediately. FSC was recently informed of serious allegations of violence involving Toba Pulp Lestari (TPL), a member of APRIL’s corporate group, and an Indigenous community in North Sumatra, Indonesia. These allegations, which include reports of attacks on community members, if confirmed, would be contrary to the intent and commitments of the MoU. FSC will consider lifting the suspension if an independent investigation is conducted which identifies the root causes of the conflict, and results in the transparent implementation of corrective measures in line with the Remedy Framework. Failure to demonstrate meaningful progress may lead to the termination of the MoU. 
A breakthrough in the creation of an oral contraceptive for wildlife has been made by British researchers – in a significant step towards ethical grey squirrel management. Scientists at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) have achieved infertility in rats through free feeding of an oral immunocontraceptive, and say initial studies show the formula has also succeeded in attaining a reaction in grey squirrels. Funded by the UK Squirrel Accord (UKSA), the research will develop a vaccine-based contraceptive and species-specific feeder to reduce grey squirrel numbers for the protection of UK red squirrels, trees and woodland ecosystems. …Fertility control is used as a safe and non-lethal option to tackle wildlife problems. …This contraceptive affects an animal’s immune system to prevent it creating the sex hormones and causes infertility in both males and females. Developing a formula that can survive the body’s digestive processes and make it into the bloodstream is a real challenge._-_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86_%D9%82%D9%85.JPG)
Woody trunks and branches of trees in the wet tropical rainforests of Queensland are losing their ability to absorb excess carbon dioxide. That’s according to an analysis of 49 years’ worth of data, 
GENEVA — Heat-trapping carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere jumped by the highest amount on record last year, soaring to a level not seen in human civilization and “turbo-charging” the Earth’s climate and causing more extreme weather, the United Nations weather agency said Wednesday. The World Meteorological Organization said in its latest bulletin on greenhouse gases, an annual study released ahead of the U.N.’s annual climate conference, that CO2 growth rates have now tripled since the 1960s, and reached levels that existed more than 800,000 years ago. Emissions from burning coal, oil and gas, alongside more wildfires, have helped fan a “vicious climate cycle,” and people and industries continue to spew heat-trapping gases while the planet’s oceans and forests lose their ability to absorb them, the WMO report said.
In 2024, the Amazon Rainforest underwent its most devastating forest fire season in more than two decades. According to a new study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, the fire-driven forest degradation released an estimated 791 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2024, a sevenfold increase compared with the previous two years. The carbon emissions from fires in 2024 surpassed those from deforestation for the first time on record. Brazil was the largest contributor, accounting for 61% of these emissions, followed by Bolivia with 32%, the study found. “The escalating fire occurrence, driven by climate change and unsustainable land use, threatens to push the Amazon towards a catastrophic tipping point,” the authors write. …The researchers estimated that the total emissions from deforestation and fire-driven degradation in the Amazon in 2024 was 1,416 million metric tons of CO2. This is higher than Japan’s CO2 emissions in 2022, which ranked fifth after China, the U.S., India and Russia.
The failure of carbon offsets to cut planet-heating pollution is “not due to a few bad apples”, a 
Josep “Pep” Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, says he believes countries large and small need to think twice before pledging to collectively plant billions of trees as a primary emissions-reduction strategy to meet climate action goals. “We have somehow sold reforestation as an easier path [to fighting climate change], and it’s not easy at all,” Canadell said. “In my view, it’s not even easier than carbon capture and storage, a technology we’re still developing. That’s because when you bring humans into landscapes and try managing these landscapes, this stuff becomes very complex.” Canadell is the co-author of a 
AUSTRALIA — The Federal Government’s National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy