Kevin Mason
The conflict in Iran has extended into a sixth week. Despite growing fears about economic wreckage (we have already seen cracks in consumer sentiment, mortgage rates climbing, etc.), we have yet to see any significant second- and third-order impacts on forest products commodities (the operative word is yet). Despite President Trump’s suggestion that the US will retreat from the Middle East in the next two to three weeks, risks abound. Even with a retreat, the risk to the world’s energy arteries will likely persist; it is only a matter of time before companies in our universe suffer the consequences of the war.
Some cost inflation has shown up quickly (e.g., energy and transport) and will pressure margins as soon as Q2. While a select few companies (those in certain packaging and paper grades) may successfully hike prices to at least partially offset higher costs, for others the downside peril to underlying demand means that margin compression is a risk (prices could fall without supply reductions). As such, while our commodity price and company earnings forecasts have not declined materially, we are adopting a more cautionary approach to valuations and moving EBITDA multiples lower for companies and commodities for which we perceive at more risk. …Several producers in our space needed markets to come to the rescue this year; however, with each passing day that the world is mired in this conflict, it looks increasingly as if 2026 will become another year to survive.
We find ourselves once again compelled to address the 
Global trade is being reshaped by escalating tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with the Nordic and European forestry industries directly affected. During 2025 and 2026, the United States introduced a series of trade measures that are altering the conditions for exports of timber, paper and pulp. …At the same time, the US has imposed steep tariffs on several major trading partners. Canada faces tariffs of 35%, although some products covered by the USMCA agreement are exempt. Brazil is subject to tariffs of up to 50% on paper and paperboard, while China continues to face high tariff levels. …Even where products are exempt from tariffs, trade is affected by higher supply chain costs, currency fluctuations and weaker demand. There is also a risk of trade diversion. If Canadian or Brazilian exporters face higher tariffs, they may redirect volumes to other markets, increasing competition in Europe. The broader trend points to a more fragmented global trading system.
On March 31, USDA announced that the U.S. Forest Service will relocate its headquarters from Washington, D.C. to Salt Lake City, bringing roughly 260 positions and the agency’s top leadership to the Intermountain West. For Utah, a state with more than 8 million acres of national forest land and a $12.3 billion outdoor recreation economy, this is a significant development. The relocation does not arrive in a vacuum. In January 2026, Utah finalized a 20-year cooperative agreement with the Forest Service giving the state a substantially larger role in managing its national forests, covering decisions about logging, grazing, recreation, wildlife, and forest restoration. The Forest Service’s Intermountain Regional Office has been based in Ogden for decades. That office will close under the reorganization, but the new national headquarters in Salt Lake City places an even higher level of decision-making authority in the state.
WASHINGTON — Countless logging trucks rumbled through timber country, their drivers headed toward Hampton Lumber’s sawmill in Morton. …”We take our logs and get every bit out of it that we possibly can. And we replant,” said plant superintendent Tony Gillispie. “We want this to last for hundreds of years.” But will Washington’s timber industry overcome its ongoing slump and endure for centuries? Myriad issues are at play, with fingers pointing in every direction. The private sector, which harvests the majority of Washington’s wood, feels squeezed by policies restricting its access to state trust lands in the fight against climate change. …Meanwhile, the state government points to the residual effects of trade wars, particularly with China, after Washington’s exports of forest products hit a 21-year low in 2025. Local demand for lumber has also dropped in line with the recent slowdown in construction activity across the state.
KINGSPORT, Tennessee — A new wastewater treatment system at Domtar’s Kingsport mill is still on schedule to start running later this year, part of an effort by the mill to mitigate odors affecting neighboring residents. Mill Manager Tony Clary updated the Kingsport Economic Development Board on the project’s timeline, the construction of an anaerobic digester, at the board’s monthly meeting Tuesday. The project is at a halfway point, and the new system is expected to ramp up at the end of the year. The mill faced scrutiny from city officials and residents over odors emitting from its wastewater after the site converted from manufacturing paper to recycling containerboard in 2023. The company secured funding to construct a new wastewater treatment system in December 2024 and broke ground in August 2025.
Lumber futures tumbled toward $580 per thousand board feet, marking a one month low as the combination of high interest rates and falling home construction has crushed demand faster than sawmills can reduce supply. This downward pressure is driven by a 14.2% collapse in single family housing starts and a 5.4% decline in building permits that signaled an abrupt cooling of spring activity. While ongoing sawmill closures have removed 1.3 billion board feet of capacity and US duties on Canadian imports remain at 45% these supply factors are failing to support prices against a sharp loss of buyers. The recent surge in mortgage rates to 6.46% has stifled traffic and left builders managing a 2.4% increase in unsold inventory that necessitates immediate price cuts. Furthermore the April 2nd announcement of C$2.1 billion in Canadian forestry subsidies has introduced expectations of more wood availability that offsets the risks of shipping delays through the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher inflation and weaker growth ahead are inevitable for the global economy as a consequence of the Iran war, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday as the institution prepares to cut its forecasts. “All roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said Monday night. Before the war, the IMF anticipated issuing a small upgrade on its outlook for global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, according to Georgieva. But those expectations have since been upended as the Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through the global economy that are unlikely to unravel anytime soon, even if the war is brought to a rapid resolution. …“Directionally, it is stagflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s higher inflation and weaker economic growth that is the result of policy — tariff policy and immigration policy.”
The Associated Press, one of the world’s oldest and most influential news organizations, said Monday it is offering buyouts to an unspecified number of its US-based journalists as part of an acceleration away from the focus on newspapers and their print journalism that sustained the company since the mid-1800s. The News Media Guild, the union that represents AP journalists, said more than 120 of the staff members it represents received buyout offers on Monday. The news organization is becoming more focused on visual journalism and developing new revenue sources, particularly through companies investing in artificial intelligence, to cope with the economic collapse of many legacy news outlets. Once the lion’s share of AP’s revenue, big newspaper companies now account for 10% of its income. “We’re not a newspaper company and we haven’t been for quite some time,” Julie Pace, executive editor and senior vice president of the AP, said.
For more than a year, the Trump administration has said it wants to harvest more timber from national forests. Now, officials are asking Congress to pay for the promise. The administration’s budget request would more than quadruple Forest Service spending on timber preparation and sales in the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, even as many other agency priorities face steep reductions or elimination. The proposal calls for $175 million in the forest products account, up from $39 million this year. The administration didn’t ask for an increase a year ago, as it was settling in after taking the reins from the Biden administration. Spending on forest products has been flat for years, said Nick Smith, a spokesperson for the American Forest Resource Council, which represents companies harvesting timber from federal lands… saying the requested increase was a long-overdue investment in a programme that had operated at a small scale for decades. [to access the full story an E&E subscription is required]
The administrative architecture of America’s national forests is undergoing its most radical transformation in decades. In a series of swift moves designed to prioritize industrial output over conservation, the Trump administration has initiated a sweeping overhaul of the US Forest Service (USFS), relocating its headquarters and dismantling the regional oversight structures. …By moving the agency’s center of gravity from Washington, DC, to Salt Lake City, Utah, and shuttering nine regional offices, the administration is pivoting away from a centralized, science-driven conservation model toward a decentralized system focused on the immediate extraction of timber and wood products. For rural America, the impact is twofold. While the administration is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into the timber industry and sawmill infrastructure, the move guts the scientific research and environmental safeguards that many rural communities rely on. This transition effectively replaces long-term ecological stewardship with a short-term commodity-driven mandate.
Washington — The U.S. Forest Service is closing 57 of its 77 research facilities in 31 states under a reorganization plan announced this week, threatening science that looked at how wildfires, drought, pests and global warming are putting pressure on forests. The agency plans to consolidate its research division into a centralized office in Fort Collins, Colorado, and move field researchers to locations in nearby states. But employees said they feared the move would lead many scientists to leave instead. The reorganization will also move the agency’s headquarters to Salt Lake City from Washington, affecting 260 employees. …The agency is closing six research and development facilities in California, five in Mississippi, four in Michigan and three in Utah, among others. It will also close all of its nine regional offices, which currently manage 154 national forests. Some states will have their own offices and others will be consolidated. …One senior scientist, speaking anonymously, said that the Forest Service wasn’t clear about whether the scientist’s research work would continue to get funding or where the scientist would be relocated…
Tropical forests span 1.6 billion hectares of Earth. …But over the past two decades, an average of 10 million hectares of these forests have been lost each year, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, affecting the ecosystems and communities that depend on them. NASA scientists recently developed a new method for tracking tropical forest loss that delivers deforestation alerts more than three months faster than current methods. Although the technique was designed for the Amazon rainforest, data from a recently launched satellite are expected to expand its application globally. …To address Landsat’s cloud challenge, researchers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center tuned into a different wavelength. Led by Africa Flores-Anderson, associate program manager for NASA’s Ecosystem Conservation Program, the team piloted a system for the Amazon that combines existing satellite-based approaches with cutting-edge radar data. …Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) doesn’t require daylight or clear skies. 
As Washington’s current snowpack conditions become worse than last year, a statewide drought emergency has been declared. It’s the fourth drought emergency for the state in as many years. According to Casey Sixkiller, director of the Washington State Department of Ecology, “widespread shortages and challenges across our state” are expected. “Going into April with half of our usual snowpack is alarming,” Sixkiller said. “… Issuing a drought emergency now helps water users prepare for what is likely to be a very difficult summer. This is becoming an all-too-common experience and is another example of how climate change is visibly reshaping our landscape.” The Department of Ecology declared the drought emergency on April 8.
MONTANA — The U.S. Forest Service plans to create a logging unit across regional national forests, seeking to boost economic stability by committing to process timber only via local businesses. The new Sustained Yield Unit – a concept created by 1944 federal law – would include 22 Montana counties and all of Helena-Lewis & Clark and Beaverhead-Deerlodge national forests, as well as most of Custer Gallatin. …Speaking for the Governor’s Office, Amanda Kaster, director of Montana’s Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, expressed the state’s strong support. …The draft plan estimates that the unit would directly support 192 jobs per year over the next decade, plus an additional 225 jobs via economic ripple effects. But the Marks saw the yield unit’s harvest plan as inadequately ambitious. …Barb Cestero, Montana director at the Wilderness Society, feared that given the Forest Service’s recent staff cuts, a potential over-emphasis on logging could be problematic.
COULTERVILLE, California – Teddy Roosevelt, John Muir and Gifford Pinchot are turning over in their graves as Donald Trump launches a devastating war against the conservation movement. “With the subtlety of a wrecking ball and the morality of a foreclosure notice the Trump administration announced the most devastating attack on the US Forest Service in the agency’s 121-year history. …The administration announced it would move the USFS headquarters out of Washington, D.C. to Salt Lake City, Utah. “They’re shuttering every single one of the 10 regional offices that have governed this agency and with them, the career professionals,” wrote Jim Pattiz. More than 50 research outlets across 31 states are set to close, labs that house decades of irreplaceable long-term science, “the kind you literally cannot restart once it’s gone,” Pattiz says. …Unfortunately, conservation groups like the Sierra Club built by John Muir have lost their focus and their power to bring change.
In 2001, the Forest Service signed the Roadless Rule. The Trump administration is seeking to rescind the rule. During a brief public comment period, 99% of the respondents opposed the idea. The Roadless Rule affected 58.5 million acres of Forest Service roadless lands and put them off-limits to new road construction, logging, and road reconstruction. As the Forest Service recognized in its original review, these roadless lands “have the greatest likelihood of altering and fragmenting landscapes, resulting in immediate, long-term loss of roadless area values and characteristics.” Abolishing protection from logging and roading provided by the Roadless Rule has major economic consequences, both in direct costs and in avoided costs. For instance, a practical rationale for the rule is the Forest Service’s acknowledgment that the roughly 370,000 miles of existing Forest Service road network could not be maintained. There is already an $11 billion backlog in road maintenance, and creating even more roads would exacerbate this situation.
For the last 25 years, 58 million acres of American forest have had no new roads, no logging equipment, and no reason to appear on anyone’s industrial map. This year that is changing — and much faster than most people realize. The 
Mountains across the West have lost their usual wintry look this year. Snowpacks in the Cascade Range, the central and southern Rockies, and the Sierra Nevada are significantly below average. As of February 1, 2026, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah reported the lowest snowpack levels on record since continuous snow data collection began in the early 1980s. …This condition is a snow drought—a period when snowpack is abnormally low relative to the time of year and location. Many of the areas with low snow received ample precipitation early in the season. November and December snowfall was near normal in many parts of the West and looked to be setting the stage for a reasonable snow year. However, warm and dry January conditions and scattered rain-on-snow events in February caused much of the early accumulated snow to melt. This condition has put large parts of the West in a 
For generations, the Organized Village of Kake and other Southeast Alaska tribes have been stewards of the Tongass National Forest… This is not just land; the forest is our heritage and way of life. …The forest’s old growth trees store more carbon than they release, making the Tongass the nation’s greatest natural climate defense. …Yet this irreplaceable ecosystem faces a threat. The Trump administration is attempting to rescind the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, a policy that for more than 25 years has safeguarded nearly 58 million acres of national forests. The administration is proposing to strip protections from 44.7 million acres of ancestral homelands, including the Tongass National Forest. This is not just bad policy; it is a direct violation of tribal treaty rights, trust and federal law. The Roadless Rule is simple and effective. It prevents destructive road-building and industrial-scale logging in remote forest areas while preserving access for recreation, subsistence and cultural practices.
In the North Cascades… the Mount Baker School District is facing a budget deficit exceeding $1 million, which local officials say is tied to declining timber sales on state lands. Three years ago, the rural district entered into what’s known as “binding conditions,” an arrangement where the state now oversees its day-to-day financial operations. Since then, it’s cut around 30 employees and increased class sizes. “Our main reason that we went in binding conditions was a precipitous drop in timber revenue,” said Russ Pfeiffer-Hoyt, school board president. The district’s timber revenue predicament is not unique among rural school districts. And it highlights rising tension around how the state is managing its public forests at a time when Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove has limited logging of some older tracts of trees. In the backdrop is a debate about whether Washington’s K-12 schools should depend heavily — or at all — on timber harvests.
BOSTON — Urban forestry is a noble and necessary pursuit, yielding environmental and health benefits almost too numerous to count. …Urban forests, broadly speaking, also happen to be sources of large amounts of wood waste. The most recent estimates from the USDA Forest Service indicate that 46 million tons of sellable wood from urban areas is felled each year, most of which gets chipped, landfilled, or burned for energy. There is a missed opportunity afoot; not one of those pathways—with the possible exception of biomass power generation—involves making something of tangible value that’s inversely proportional to the amount of waste being generated. …Tridome Structures, a Massachusetts-based manufacturer of mass timber products, saw the gap in the Northeast market and acted accordingly. Only six months ago, the company opened a subsidiary mill operation called TimberWise in the town of Millis, a Boston suburb.
January’s ice storm stressed out trees, making it harder for them to ward off disease and insects. It may have also created an environment where species of pine bark beetles that have been documented for centuries, especially ips and southern pine beetles, can flourish and attack vulnerable evergreens. “You can go from having just a few trees that are damaged or killed by the beetles to having acres damaged or killed by beetles if you’re not really monitoring that,” said Garron Hicks, Assistant Forest Management Chief with the Mississippi Forestry Commission. “Unfortunately, often when landowners notice evidence of the beetle, it’s too late for that tree.” That’s especially true for pine trees whose needles have already begun to turn brown or red. …Hicks urges landowners especially in north Mississippi, the region hit hardest by the winter storm, to look out for signs of beetle damage like pitch tubes.
