Kelly McCloskey
Every so often, a technical story reveals a simple truth—showing how easily numbers, once baked into the system, can become policy. A recent essay by analyst Alice Palmer… shows how the US Department of Commerce’s anti-dumping calculations turn fair trade into a numerical fiction—and why, even as markets shift, the duties stay high. …Palmer’s finding naturally raises a broader question: if one methodological choice can create a margin from nothing, are other elements in the system doing similar work? …Tree Frog reached out to Palmer and looked further into how the duty calculations are made—first, anti-dumping, then countervailing duties and finally timing. Taken together, the analysis points to a consistent pattern: much of the duty burden reflects method and timing rather than market reality. …If the anti-dumping and countervailing duties were recalculated using complete data (no zeroing), domestic benchmarks (no non-comparable price substitution), and up-to-date prices (no cycle lag), their combined rate—now roughly 35%—could fall to minimal levels.
In the wider context, the methodological issues described here are not just statistical—they reflect a system without an effective referee. The WTO Appellate Body remains dormant after the US blocked new appointments, and the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement (known in Canada as CUSMA and in the United States as USMCA) offers no practical remedy. The usual checks on bias have eroded, leaving little recourse for affected industries. Political-risk analyst Robert McKellar argues that this represents “a structural vulnerability: when the rules are written by the same players who benefit from them.” Just recently, the US Lumber Coalition reinforced that trend, urging that any USMCA extension be conditioned on eliminating the Chapter 10 binational panel review process—a move that would effectively eliminate external oversight of US trade-remedy decisions. …As McKellar noted, this tension between political power and economic logic typifies today’s protectionist era—a system where duties reflect not only distorted math but also the absence of a functioning arbiter to restore balance.
The softwood timber tariffs levied by the U.S. have begun to hit the lumber industry hard. Citing a drooping softwood lumber demand, compounded by higher duties and additional tariffs that have reached 45 per cent for U.S. markets, West Fraser Timber announced Thursday its plans to permanently shutter both its Augusta, Ga., and 100 Mile House lumber mills by the end of 2025. Approximately 165 employees at the 100 Mile House mill will be laid off, as the company says it can’t secure an adequate volume of economically viable timber. The closing of the mill drops West Fraser’s capacity by 160 million board feet. …The closure of the Augusta lumber mill is a result of challenging lumber demand, and the loss of economically viable residual outlets, which combined has compromised the mill’s long-term viability. Around 130 employees will be laid off there, and further reduce West Fraser’s capacity by 140 million board feet.
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s tariff agenda is set to face a major legal hurdle in the US Supreme Court this week but no matter the ruling, it will not spare Canada from all of the president’s devastating duties. The US Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday from businesses and states that say Trump’s use of a national security statute — the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 — to hit nearly every nation with tariffs is illegal. The hearing will combine two cases: one pushing back on what are usually referred to as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the other which also argues against the fentanyl-related duties on Canada, Mexico and China. It will not impact Trump’s expanding use of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. …Carlo Dade at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said no matter the outcome of the hearing, Canada will be facing tariffs.
BEIJING — China will restore soybean import licences for three US firms and lift its suspension on US log imports starting November 10, its customs authority said on Friday in another sign of easing trade tensions between the two nations. …The halt on US log imports was a retaliatory measure after US President Trump’s March 1 order to investigate lumber imports. Investor sentiment improved after Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, reducing fears that the world’s two largest economies might abandon efforts to resolve their trade disputes. Following the meeting, Beijing lifted tariffs on some US farm goods. …However, traders remain cautious, as a 10% tariff on all US imports remains in effect, limiting expectations for a broader recovery in trade flows.
KINGWOOD, W.Va. — Multiple volunteer fire departments and emergency medical services responded Wednesday night to a fire at Appalachian Wood Pellets that affected multiple buildings. Officials reported the blaze has been contained, and no injuries were reported. Preston County Office of Emergency Management Director Justin Wolfe said initial reports of the blaze at 383 Mill Road were received at 11:33 p.m. Wednesday. …Initial reports noted that crews mounted an attack against the blaze, with additional fire departments being requested for assistance. Based on reports, the fire affected structures outside the main plant, including an open trailer with material, an open roofed storage structure and a belt-to-silo apparatus, and encroached on a maintenance building.
Weyerhaeuser will use $102 million of proceeds from a municipal bond sale to help finance the construction of solid waste disposal facilities at its engineered wood plant in Arkansas. The Resource Recovery Revenue Bonds Series 2025 will be sold by the Arkansas Development Finance Authority, which will then lend the money to the timber and forest products company. …The bonds are special and limited revenue obligations of the issuer. Weyerhaeuser will use the money to help finance a portion of the costs of the acquisition, construction, equipping and installation of solid waste disposal facilities at its TimberStrand plant under construction near the city of Monticello in Drew County. Proceeds will also be used to pay the costs of bond issuance. TimberStrand is a brand name for a type of engineered wood product called laminated strand lumber and is manufactured by Weyerhaeuser. 
Arkansas’ timber industry, like Arkansas’ agriculture industry, is in trouble. The causes of the trouble are various, but one cause stands out for both: the Trump administration’s trade war. In October, Arkansas House Speaker Brian Evans, R-Cabot, joined the speakers of the Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina houses of representatives urging Congress to move to relieve “an industry in crisis.” “Under current US trade policy, products and shipments from US exporters are becoming stuck en route to their final destination due to immediately imposed tariffs,” the letter said. The state’s forestry sector supports more than 50,000 jobs and contributes about $6.1 billion to Arkansas’ economy, more than 4% of the state’s GDP. “The trade war has impacted our ability to export hardwood logs out of Arkansas,” Matthew Pelkki, at the University of Arkansas at Monticello, said. [to access the full story an Arkansas Business subscription is required]
BURNABY, BC — Interfor reported its Q3, 2025 results. The company recorded a net loss of $215.8 million compared to net earnings of $11.1 million in Q2’25 and a net loss of $105.7 million in Q3’24. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $183.8 million on sales of $689.3 million in Q3’25 versus Adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million on sales of $780.5 million in Q2’25 and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $22.0 million on sales of $692.7 million in Q3’24. Lumber production of 912 million board feet was down 23 million board feet versus the preceding quarter. This decline largely reflects the Company’s announcement on September 4, 2025, to temporarily curtail production. …Weak lumber market conditions were reflected in Interfor’s average selling price of $618 per mfbm, down $66 per mfbm versus Q2’25. …Interfor’s strategy of maintaining a diversified portfolio of operations in multiple regions allows the Company to both reduce risk and maximize returns on capital over the business cycle.
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its third quarter of 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $208 million and a net loss of $172 million. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, stated: “The ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty, in conjunction with punitive US softwood lumber duties, led to persistently weak market conditions and subdued demand across all of our operating regions during the third quarter of 2025. …For the lumber segment, the operating loss was $182.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter’s operating loss of $229.2 million. …For the 
Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.
An extended slowdown in sales of cardboard boxes is intensifying concern that this holiday season will be a disappointing one for US retailers. US corrugated box shipments fell to the lowest third-quarter reading since 2015, maintaining the more measured pace seen in the previous quarter, according to the Fibre Box Association. Packaging companies in recent weeks have warned that economic uncertainty is weighing on retailers and consumers. …This time of year is crucial for the box industry, with shipments typically peaking in October as retailers prepare for the holidays. Box plants said orders were flat or below normal in October, while US consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low and manufacturing activity dropped for an eighth straight month. …US box industry shipments are poised to drop 1% to 1.5% this year versus 2024,” IP’s Andy Silvernail said last week. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
Kimberly-Clark is buying Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash and stock deal worth about $48.7 billion, creating a massive consumer health goods company. Shareholders of Kimberly-Clark will own about 54% of the combined company. Kenvue shareholders will own about 46%. The combined company will have a large stable of household brands under one roof, putting Kenvue’s Listerine mouthwash and Band-Aid side-by-side with Kimberly-Clark’s Cottonelle toilet paper, Huggies and Kleenex tissues. It will also generate about $32 billion in annual revenue. Kenvue has spent a relatively brief period as an independent company, having been spun off by Johnson & Johnson two years ago. The deal announced Monday is among the largest corporate takeovers of the year. …The deal is expected to close in the second half of next year. It still needs approval from shareholders of both both companies. …Shares of Kimberly-Clark slipped more than 15% before the market open, while Kenvue’s stock jumped more than 20%.
Michigan is the latest state to launch an initiative aimed at accelerating mass timber construction. The new Michigan Mass Timber Catalyst Program will provide cash awards ranging from $25,000 to $75,000, along with technical assistance and peer-learning opportunities, to encourage the use of engineered wood in new buildings. Although mass timber products are not yet manufactured in Michigan, interest in the material is growing rapidly. …The Catalyst program, produced collaboratively by the Michigan DNR, MassTimber@MSU, the Michigan Green Building Collaborative, and WoodWorks, will support early-stage projects that use mass timber as a primary structural or architectural material. …Awarded teams will join a cohort led by MassTimber@MSU and Woodworks to work through design, procurement, cost estimation, and code approval challenges. …In New York City, the NYCEDC’s Mass Timber Studio offers $25,000 Grants and technical support for early-stage projects…. In the Southeast, the Georgia Mass Timber Accelerator… provides funding and technical assistance to teams exploring timber-based design solutions.
Chinese tissue paper made from bamboo has emerged as a trendy choice for eco-friendly shoppers. However, new research suggests these bamboo paper products may not offer significant climate benefits over tissue produced in the United States and, in some cases, may be more detrimental to the environment. North Carolina State University researchers compared the carbon footprint of bamboo tissue paper manufactured in China with that of conventional tissue paper manufactured in the U.S. and Canada. They found that… the fossil fuel-heavy power grid in China led to significant increases in emissions compared with cleaner fuel sources used in North America. “As far as emissions go, the technology used to create hygiene tissue paper is far more important than the type of fiber it’s made from,” said Naycari Forfora, lead author of the study…. “Because the Chinese power grid is so reliant on coal for power, emissions … are higher than the wood-based option.”
CORVALLIS, Oregon – Rising wildfire risk in the Pacific Northwest combined with notoriously volatile timber pricing may lower forestland values by as much as 50% and persuade plantation owners to harvest trees much earlier than planned, a 
BOISI, Idaho — The Trump Administration’s decision earlier this year to do away with the 2001 Roadless Area Conseravtion Rule on national forest lands sent shockwaves through environmental and outdoor recreation communities. According to environmentalists and an Idaho public official who has been involved in roadless rule politics since the issue’s inception, the move could transport stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest back to the rancor and political divisions of the timber war years. …“The national rule itself put the whole timber wars to bed. It really did,” said James Caswell, former director of the Bureau of Land Management. …The rule led to conditions in which environmentalists became less combative about forest management, according to Caswell. Instead, enviros became more willing to work with timber industry and Forest Service officials. …The decision puts the forest objectives of fishermen, hunters, ATVers, bird watchers and others on the back burner.
PORTLAND, Oregon — The question of whether two logging companies conspired to monopolize markets in an eastern Oregon forest came before a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit on Wednesday as a coalition urged the court to revive its antitrust challenge. US Circuit Judge Milan Smith noted the case was unlike other antitrust suits. …In 2013, the U.S. Forest Service granted the logging company Iron Triangle a 10-year stewardship contract for the Malheur National Forest, as well as associated logging rights. A group of landowners, loggers and an eastern Oregon lumber sawmill — known collectively as the Malheur Forest Coalition — sued Iron Triangle in 2022, arguing that the company exploited control of the contract and should be blocked from competing for harvest rights in U.S. Forest Service public auctions. The lower court denied the request, prompting a new complaint adding the Malheur Lumber Company as a defendant.
A federal judge has halted a logging project in the Kootenai National Forest, saying the federal government failed to correctly analyze the impacts to grizzly bears. The Knotty Pine Project, a 10-year project that would have authorized 7,465 acres of prescribed burning and 2,593 acres of commercial harvest in the Cabinet-Yaak Mountains, has been in litigation since 2022. The Center for Biological Diversity led a coalition of environmental groups …in suing the U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, saying it could devastate the small group of grizzly bears that lives in the region due to increased roadwork. U.S. District Court Judge Dana Christensen granted a preliminary junction the following year, but issued his final ruling last week. …“High road densities in low elevation habitats may result in grizzly bear avoidance or displacement from important spring habitat and high mortality risks,” Christensen wrote.
Durable, renewable and biodegradable, wood is an ideal material. And as we grapple with the aftermath of synthetic materials, such as forever chemicals and microplastics, the humble material growing in our literal backyards is suddenly looking pretty appealing again. But how do you know it wasn’t clearcut from a rainforest? Figuring out logging practices, deforestation policies, impact on wildlife, pesticide use, and impact on indigenous communities “can be really challenging”, said Linda Walker at the World Wildlife Fund. …That’s where certifications come in. A growing number of wood industry certifications are designed to guide consumers. They’re not perfect. Some have rules written by big timber. Almost all of them receive payments from companies seeking certifications. There is no seal that encompasses every issue, but don’t let perfect be the enemy of good – even the most flawed badges have some baseline value.