Tree Frog Editor: This insight paper by political risk analyst Robert McKellar offers a strategic lens on how a second Trump administration is shaping US behaviour as a global actor — an issue with direct implications for trade-exposed sectors. McKellar is a founding partner at Harmattan Risk and the co-author of “Trump’s Second Term: Political Risk and the Forest Products Sector,” an analysis of US trade policy, tariff dynamics, and geopolitical uncertainty. In this paper, he steps back from industry-specific analysis to explore the broader strategic logic — and contradictions — underlying current US global behaviour, providing context for the policy volatility and trade uncertainty facing the sector.
Robert McKellar
The US, a lynchpin global player, has become a change bomb, and having a clear sense of the US as an agent on the world stage is critical to sense-making that can inform appropriate strategic responses. But as it stands, Trump, whose character shapes his administration, is a wildcard. He is seemingly bored to tears by stability in any issue he deals with, and bored by a set menu of priorities. …Do we resign ourselves to perpetually playing catch up with US moves and their reverberations, or is it possible to get ahead of the Trumpian storm with a reasonably accurate sketch of the US as a global actor? If its moves were guided by strategic rationality, we would be able to extrapolate some idea of its future behaviour, and even a sense of how the international system might look in a few years and the critical challenges any given state might present…
Seasoned observers of US politics and international behaviour might have foreseen some of what is happening now, but by and large they did not expect Godzilla. Thus, they have often latched onto their own predispositions to fill in the considerable blanks. This has, for the most part, yielded two poles of interpretation. One is that Trump and his team are acting on a strategic assessment, and that despite apparent mayhem their moves are rational, even coldly calculating. The other is that the US has succumbed to the baser aspects of personal rule. Thus, Trump’s eccentric character and ego are the main source of US global behaviour. …The emerging reality no doubt lies somewhere in between, but to triangulate to an approximation, we need to prod around both poles of interpretation.
Canada has “no intention” of pursuing a free trade deal with China, Prime Minister Carney said, after US President Trump threatened to slap punitive tariffs on Ottawa. Carney said that the country respects its obligations under the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement, known as CUSMA in Canada and the USMCA in the US, and will not pursue a free trade agreement without notifying the other two parties. Carney’s remarks come after Trump threatened to put a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Ottawa “makes a deal” with Beijing. …Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also echoed Trump’s sentiments on Canada and China, saying that the UScould not “let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the US.” …Carney said: “What we have done with China is to rectify some issues that have developed in the last couple of years,” adding that the deal was “entirely consistent with CUSMA.”
VIETNAM — The United States has decided to postpone the tariff increase on certain finished wood products, including upholstered chairs, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets, from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. The postponement of the tax increase on some finished wood products helps Vietnamese businesses temporarily avoid the policy shock at the beginning of 2026. However, this is not a sign of loosening, but rather a tactical retreat, requiring the wood industry to be more proactive and cautious in policy planning and restructuring the overall development strategy of the entire industry. …Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice President of the Vietnam Wood and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), commented that if postponing the tariff increase is considered an “opportunity,” then extreme caution is needed. In reality, tariff pressure has spread throughout the entire supply chain, from domestic manufacturers to importers and retail systems in the US.
Montana’s forestry industry is entering this year with more questions than answers, from low lumber prices to high housing costs for workers to questions about tariffs, but there is room for strategic adaptation. That’s according to an economist who gave an update on the sector in the 2026 Montana Economic Report, put out by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. …Scott said the number of people employed in the private sector in forestry in Montana statewide has dropped in 2025. …His main points are that while timber harvests are down, the federal government is making a push to increase harvests. …He said the Trump administration’s tariff policy remains another wildcard. “A combination of lumber and trade-related tariffs has been implemented to bolster domestic demand, by raising the cost of Canadian lumber… it is still too early to tell whether these measures will meaningfully shift trade flows.”
ALEXANDRIA, Va.
Lumber futures slipped below $590 per thousand board feet, the lowest level in nearly four weeks, as housing demand weakened and earlier restocking momentum faded. Demand softened as financing costs edged higher and housing activity cooled, with US pending home sales plunging 9.3% month on month in December 2025, removing a key source of construction and renovation related wood consumption ahead of the spring building season. At the same time, mills continued running to rebuild inventories after the winter squeeze, increasing physical availability while distributors reported quieter order books. The combination of softer demand and rising availability encouraged position unwinds after January’s rally, with falling volumes and open interest amplifying the price decline. [END]
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
Long-term mortgage rates continued to decline in January. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.10% last month, 9 basis points (bps) lower than December. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 4 bps to 5.44%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is lower by 86 bps. The 15-year rate is also lower by 72 bps. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.20% in January – an increase of 8 bps from the previous month, but remained considerably lower than last year by 43 bps. While mortgage rates typically move in tandem with the treasury yields, the spread between the two narrowed during the month. Reports that the Trump administration encouraged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) boosted demand for MBS, pushing mortgage rates lower. However, treasury yields rose sharply in the final week of January from global and fiscal pressures. 
When it comes to housing affordability, the logic of “build build build” is straightforward enough: Housing is too expensive. If there were more of it, prices would fall. …Homebuilders are even pushing a plan for a million new affordable houses. …Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The problem of housing affordability is much bigger than insufficient supply; it’s a mismatch with demand. And that demand is driven by income inequality that has seen soaring income growth at the top and tepid growth (or even stagnation) in the middle. In other words: The way to improve housing affordability is to reduce income inequality. …What’s needed are policies that increase income for households at the bottom and middle. Rather than boosting the housing supply in the hope that they benefit, the answer is to fix the labor market to make sure that they do. 
The United States is one of the world’s largest timberland investment markets, with returns driven primarily by land values rather than timber prices, according to Domain Timber Advisors’ timberland market analysis. Timberland values remain strong at the end of 2025, supported by continued appreciation in land values, while timber prices remain relatively flat. …During 2025, Domain underwrites 14 institutional bid events, 54 public listings, and 38 off-market or non-public offerings. By the end of the fourth quarter, the acquisition pipeline consists of 46 deals covering more than 500 thousand acres, providing visibility into pricing dynamics, regional demand shifts, and emerging non-timber value drivers. …Looking ahead, Domain states that renewable energy development and technology infrastructure are expected to expand non-timber revenue opportunities in 2026 and beyond. Alternative timber product markets, including molded fiber products and biomass-to-electricity, are expected to offset part of the pulpwood demand lost due to mill closures and production quotas.
Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) are almost equal to 2024 year to date through October 2025 at 488 MMBF, according to October 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. October 2025’s 60 MMBF of exports were up 47% over October 2024 and up 33% compared to September 2025. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports are up 4% YTD ($190 million) compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the October value of $25 million is the highest mark since June 2022, when the value hit $29 million. Mexico leads the way YTD 2025 at $56 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $39 million, and India at $18 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, are down 4% through the first 10 months of the year compared to 2024. The Leeward-Windward Islands market leads the way through October at $18 million, followed by Jamaica at $16 million, and Belize at $10 million. Softwood lumber imports are running 8% behind 2024 levels.
California’s wildfire insurance crisis intensified this week as major insurers faced renewed scrutiny over denied or delayed payouts, while regulators and lawmakers moved to address mounting consumer complaints. The
CLEVELAND, Ohio — A state panel this week extended its offer to help finance construction of a new 129-room boutique hotel in Cleveland’s Ohio City neighborhood. While that doesn’t guarantee the hotel will move forward, the developer leading the project said construction can’t start without the state’s financing. The board… offered until Jan. 31, 2027 are $35 million worth of state bonds for the roughly $55 million project that would build a Marriott Tribute Portfolio boutique hotel. …The air quality facilities noted in the resolution include the seven-story building’s proposed use of mass-timber in its construction. …The presence of wood-timber construction above a first-floor reinforced concrete deck is noted in this axonometric view of the proposed Ohio City Hotel (DLR). The use of mass timber instead of reinforced concrete can save up to 40% in ongoing heating and cooling emissions for a building’s user as well as reduced emissions, according to Dan Whalen, at Places Development. 
The Interior Department is blazing ahead with a reorganization plan that will bring all of its wildland firefighting operations into a single agency. Starting next week, all the department’s wildland fire employees and programs will be moved into a new Wildland Fire Service. Congress did not approve funds for this consolidation of federal firefighting programs into one agency. The Wildland Fire Service also stops short of merging wildland fire personnel or programs from the USDA’s Forest Service with those same resources at the Interior Department. An internal memo sent to staff on Monday states the Wildland Fire Service “will unify wildland fire management within DOI only.” According to the memo, obtained by Federal News Network, the Wildland Fire Service will “align operations” with USDA through shared procurement, predictive services, research, and policy reforms.
Lawmakers from both parties agreed at a congressional hearing Tuesday that the federal government must act to address the growing threat of catastrophic wildfires, but they were sharply divided over how, and whether pending legislation known as the Fix Our Forests Act offers the right path forward. The House of Representatives passed the FOFA legislation in January 2025, and its companion bill is pending in the Senate. …Republican supporters of the bill championed its focus on fast-tracking the thinning and clearing of forests on large tracks of land by making exceptions to requirements in bedrock environmental laws. They argue that those steps are a fix for intensifying fires. …Democrats on the House Committee sharply criticized parts of the wildfire bill, arguing that it unnecessarily erodes environmental safeguards and expands logging, despite limited evidence that either makes communities safer. …Outside of the hearing, scientists and environmental advocates also criticized parts of FOFA.
Two conservation groups are suing the Trump administration, challenging a U.S. Department of Agriculture rule that strips public comment requirements from most national forest projects. In a federal 
Together, we have served as US Forest Service chiefs for both Republican and Democratic administrations. We know that forest management decisions never come without debate, opinions and — more often than not — disagreement. Each of us has had to strike the difficult balance between leaving some forests intact, while sustainably using others to benefit communities and economies. But regardless of who is in the White House, one thing has always remained true: Americans value their national forests, and they want to see them protected for the benefits they provide us, like clean air, water, abundant recreation opportunities and sustainable economies. …The current administration needs to know: Repealing the Roadless Area Conservation Rule would not be in the long-term interest of the American people, the National Forests or the communities they serve. Each of us has been faced with tough decisions. Keeping backcountry and healthy forests free of unnecessary roads was never one of them.
Anytime someone talks about shifting management of federal lands to Idaho, know that they have a bigger goal in mind. In a recent interview on The Ranch Podcast, Rep. Jordan Redman, R-Coeur d’Alene, was frank about his goals for public lands in Idaho. He said his father, former Rep. Eric Redman, dreamed of Idaho taking ownership of federal lands, and his goal is the same. The first step is for Idaho to manage public lands for a bit, then the state takes ownership of them. “How do we get that federal land back in ownership for the state?” Rep. Jordan Redman said. Back? It should be said that Idaho has never owned federal land. Redman should try reading the Constitution he swore to uphold: “… the people of the state of Idaho do agree and declare that we forever disclaim all right and title to the unappropriated public lands lying within the boundaries thereof … .” You can’t get back what you never owned; you can only take it. In service of the goal of taking federal land, Redman made a familiar argument.
Baker City, Oregon — Baker County Commissioner Christina Witham lauded the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest for cutting and piling trees southwest of Baker City, the start of a project that will continue for several years with a goal of reducing the risk of a wildfire in the city’s watershed. “It’s looking really nice,” Witham said during commissioners’ meeting Wednesday morning, Feb. 4. Witham, whose focus areas as a commissioner include natural resources, said she recently toured some of the work areas with Forest Service officials. …According to the Wallowa-Whitman, the project, which totals about 23,000 acres, is designed not only to reduce the fire risk within the watershed, but also to curb the threat of a fire spreading into the watershed, particularly from the south, a path that summer lightning storms often follow.
OLYMPIA — The House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee showed a lively interest in repealing a rule that will lock up 200,000 acres of timber in Western Washington. The committee held a hearing Feb. 3 on House Bill 2620, sponsored by a mix of conservative Republicans and progressive Democrats. The bill targets the Forest Practices Board’s decision in November to widen and lengthen riparian buffers along streams without fish. The bigger buffers will eliminate $2.8 billion worth of timber, a University of Washington analysis estimates. The rule barely passed, 7-5. …The buffers, which go into effect Aug. 31, are needed to keep logging from raising water temperatures in most cases, according to Ecology. Timber groups say Ecology’s no-increase-in-water-temperature standard is humanly impossible to meet. What matters is that water temperatures stay cool enough for fish downstream, they argue. Forest landowners and the Washington State Association of Counties suggested buffers that would take 44,500 acres out of production. 
ALASKA — The US Forest Service is moving forward with a plan to harvest over 5,000 acres of trees in the Tongass National Forest, just east of Ketchikan. A majority of that will be old-growth trees, which some people worry will be devastating to the forest. The Forest Service released the 
Oregon’s forestry department has proposed a flexible approach to managing state-owned forests west of the Cascades over the next 70 years. Staff say it will allow them to adapt as scientific understanding evolves — and as the climate changes. But environmental groups say the department has drafted a plan that’s too vague. They would like to see more focus on saving the mature and complex forests. Members of the public can 
The Washington wood-products industry says timber harvests will spiral downward if lawmakers pass a bill championed by Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove. At Upthegrove’s request, legislators are considering authorizing the Department of Natural Resources to sell “ecosystem services,” possibly by delaying or canceling timber harvests. DNR officials say ecosystem services could be a new source of revenue as businesses buy carbon credits to “offset” their emissions. Carbon credits could add to the money rural counties and schools receive from timber sales, according to DNR. The timber industry, backed by the Washington State Association of Counties, argues its more likely ecosystem services would replace timber sales. Rural public services would get less money, Paul Jewell, the counties’ policy director, said. More importantly, rural counties will lose timber jobs, he said. “Sales of ecosystem services can’t replace those economic benefits,” he told the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee on Jan. 28.
Over the past year, a wave of high-profile development proposals — from oil fields and mining roads to timber projects — has reshaped a fast-moving debate, propelling Alaska into the center of the national conversation over how to balance energy production with conservation. These projects have revived long-running tensions over what the state’s public lands are for, and who they ultimately benefit. The federal government has long viewed Alaska as resource-rich, a posture that’s intensified under the Trump administration. After meeting Trump in 2018, Gov. Mike Dunleavy called Alaska “America’s natural resource warehouse.” But the last time Alaska figured this prominently in national energy and conservation debates was in the late 1970s, said Philip Wight, at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. What makes today’s landscape different, Wight said, is a unified federal government pushing multiple contentious development proposals at once, with fewer moderate Republicans willing to oppose them ….
A 34-year-old rule exempting some commercial logging projects on federal lands from environmental review is unlawful, a federal judge recently ruled. Judge Michael McShane in the U.S. District Court in Medford earlier this month struck down the exemption, and with it, reversed recent approvals for three commercial logging projects covering tens of thousands of acres in Fremont-Winema National Forest in southern Oregon. The decision is the result of a 2022 lawsuit brought against the U.S. Forest Service by regional conservation groups Oregon Wild, WildEarth Guardians and GO Alliance. Since 1992, the U.S. Forest Service has been able to bypass environmental reviews required by federal law for logging projects on federal land, if the logging is meant to “improve forest stand conditions,” habitat or prevent wildfires, without “significant effect” on the human environment.
STARKVILLE, Miss. — Carbon dioxide is the most commonly produced greenhouse gas, the substances that trap heat in the atmosphere keeping the planet warm enough for life. Carbon is stored in high amounts in timber, of which Mississippi has an abundance. The state ranks in the top 10 nationally in timber production, with close to 20 million acres of timberland. The U.S. Geological Survey says that carbon sequestration is the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere reduces the potential for global climate change. Since timber stores carbon efficiently, a tremendous amount of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide is stored in Mississippi’s forests. This makes timber a valuable resource in efforts to limit the amount of carbon available as a greenhouse gas. Carbon credits and the carbon offset market have made an impact on Mississippi’s economy to a degree for about 20 years.
PITTSBURG, New Hampshire — The state has reached a deal on the management of the Connecticut Lakes Headwaters Working Forest, a 146,000 acre property constituting 3% of New Hampshire’s forests, according to Gov. Kelly Ayotte. The forest is privately owned but is under a conservation easement, which means the state has oversight regarding how the land is managed and can ensure it remains a working timberland. Since the land was purchased in 2022 by an out-of-state carbon offset company, Aurora Sustainable Lands, local loggers have raised concerns about reduced timber harvesting on the property. As a carbon-offset company, Aurora curbed logging in order to sell the carbon they stored. …In the plan agreed upon last month, Aurora will increase the average annual timber harvest. …“The Connecticut Lakes Headwaters Working Forest is critical to recreation, tourism and the timber industry in our North Country,” Ayotte said.
Misleading. Unjustified. Hypocritical. Those are just some of the words that Department of Energy scientists used to describe a 141-page report on climate change that was commissioned by DOE Secretary Chris Wright. The feedback appears in newly revealed emails that were made public as part of a court fight between DOE and public interest groups. And they show that criticism of the report isn’t limited to scientists outside the Trump administration. The department’s own internal reviewers took issue with the document, which was written by five climate contrarians from outside DOE who were handpicked by Wright. …One DOE reviewer echoed that opinion and said it was “misleading” for the report to talk about how climate change could boost plant growth without mentioning its other drawbacks. Another comment described the report’s criticism of climate modeling as an “unjustified (and at worst a biased) judgement.” 
NEW YORK
UK energy company Drax’s ambitions of becoming a significant wood pellet supplier to Asia are in danger of faltering as Japanese policymakers wind back generous subsidies for the biomass sector. Japan is set to soon surpass the UK as the world’s largest wood pellet importer after a post-Fukushima push to diversify power sources that caused hundreds of plants to spring up that burn wood pellets, palm kernel shells — a palm oil byproduct — and other organic materials. But policymakers in Japan are pulling support for the controversial industry after realising the hurdles to bringing down fuel costs. Tokyo has already cut subsidies for new projects of more than 10 megawatts. “The real intention is quite simple: no new government support, phasing out. We don’t see any clear path of bringing down costs in the foreseeable future,” said one government official. “Existing projects might survive but no new projects are coming.”
…Timber prices have been low for a long time; they never really recovered from the 2008 housing crash. Nearly a dozen paper mills closed across the South in recent years, and Hurricane Helene tore down trees in much of Georgia and the Carolinas. It’s left many in Georgia, one of the leading states for forestry, with a dilemma: what do you do when your income relies on a forest but nobody wants to buy your trees? A group of researchers and industry leaders thinks paying landowners for carbon storage could help. “We may see a decline in the number of acres that are kept in forests and the quality of the land that is forested,” said David Eady with Georgia Tech’s business school. Losing those trees would shrink the industry and be devastating for the environment. …So Eady and others asked: why not use that carbon storage to keep foresters in business?
Construction in New York City is one of the most dynamic and demanding industries in the country — but it’s also one of the most dangerous. …That’s why innovation in building materials and methods can have a real impact not only on efficiency and sustainability but also on safety. One such innovation, mass timber, is gaining traction. …Mass timber components are prefabricated in controlled factory settings. This approach greatly reduces the need for tasks like cutting, welding, or mixing concrete on-site — tasks that are commonly associated with jobsite injuries. …Additionally, since large panels arrive ready to install, crews spend less time working at height, which directly reduces the risk of falls — the leading cause of construction fatalities in the U.S., according to OSHA’s fall protection guidelines. …It also means a reduced need for powered hand tools and high-decibel equipment, lowering the risk of accidents related to hand injuries or communication breakdowns.
