Robert McKellar
Friday’s Tree Frog interview with political risk expert Robert McKellar drew exceptional interest—and for good reason. Given reader response and the ongoing fallout from Trump’s trade policies, we’re featuring it again for those who missed it. McKellar, who divides his time between Turkey and Canada, brings an international perspective to his analysis of Trump’s second-term trade environment and its implications for Canada’s forest sector. His message is clear: US protectionism is not a passing phase. The current tariff and duty structure reflects a broader nationalist realignment that will persist well beyond the Trump presidency. He notes it is unlikely that the upcoming USMCA review will restore pre-Trump-2 market access, and that while Washington is betting tariffs will attract new foreign investment, the result has instead been greater political risk.
McKellar also examines the recent US–China flare-up, concluding it is unlikely to reignite a full-scale trade war. Within the US, he observes that political momentum currently favours the US Lumber Coalition over homebuilders, but that balance could shift if housing affordability again becomes a political flashpoint. Should the housing crisis deepen, Trump has shown he’s willing to adjust course when broader political pressures outweigh protectionist instincts. For Canadian producers, diversification and value-added strategies remain essential—but slow to materialize. That reality underpins McKellar’s central question: “If that’s true—then what?” His answer calls for a fundamental shift in mindset—challenging the sector to rethink its future and chart a course less dependent on the US market. He concludes that companies should view political-risk awareness as a practical framework—linking foresight, market intelligence, and decision-making into a continuous process of adaptation. The tools already exist within most organizations, he says; the opportunity lies in using them more deliberately as part of everyday business planning.
A U.S.-Canada trade deal on steel, aluminium and energy could be ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit later this month in South Korea, the 
VANCOUVER, BC —
Lumber futures fell below $610 per thousand board feet, their lowest level since October 8 and down 12% from a three-year high in early August, as a slowing US housing market outweighed potential supply curbs from tariffs. August building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.33 million, the lowest since May 2020, while housing starts fell 8.5%, marking the fourth-lowest reading in over five years. Earlier this month, the US imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian lumber, with the Trump administration stating it aims to expand domestic timber harvesting and reduce reliance on foreign lumber. Looking ahead, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate construction and home buying and encourage homeowners to borrow for repairs and renovations, the largest driver of lumber demand. However, signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation suggest demand may remain subdued.
Section 232 tariffs were once seen as a fortress for US metals. Yet, that fortress now casts a much longer shadow. Companies far removed from the steel and aluminum sector could soon find themselves ensnared in tariffs they never imagined, thanks to the inclusion process for “derivative” products. The Trump Administration has steadily expanded Section 232 authority well beyond their original steel and aluminum targets, to copper, automobiles, trucks, lumber, and even wooden cabinets. These tariffs, which range from 10% (for lumber) to 50% (for steel and aluminum), are layered on top of normal import duties. At first glance, these measures appeared to strike only those industries handling raw materials. But in 2025 the Administration sought to close what it saw as a loophole: downstream products containing tariffed metals that could enter duty-free. As a result, section 232 tariffs were imposed on the raw material and a finite list of derivative products.
Ikea is increasing the amount of products it makes in the US as the world’s largest home furnishings retailer comes under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on furniture and kitchen cabinets. The flat-pack retailer, which made revenues of $5.5bn in the US last year, currently produces only about 15% of products that it sells in the US domestically. That compares with 75% local production in Europe and 80% in Asia. “We want to continue to expand in the US and Canada — how do we optimise a good supply set-up where we secure the right access to materials, to components, to production? That’s very long-term work that we’re doing,” Jon Abrahamsson Ring, chief executive of Inter Ikea. Trump imposed tariffs of between 10% and 50% on imports of foreign furniture and wood products. Ikea, which is responsible for about 1% of total industrial production, is set to take a significant hit. 
NASHVILLE, Tenn.– LP Building Solutions (LP) announced the continuation of its partnership with the [US based] Forest Workforce Training Institute’s ForestryWorks® program and a new collaboration with the [British Columbia, Canada] First Nations Forestry Council. Both initiatives aim to develop the next generation of forestry professionals and advance sustainable forest management across North America. …“Programs like ForestryWorks and First Nations Forestry Council help ensure forests remain healthy and productive while supporting the future of sustainable forestry,” said LP Chair and CEO Brad Southern. “By investing in tomorrow’s workforce, we’re also investing in the continued success of renewable, high-performance building solutions.” …“We’re pleased to welcome LP Building Solutions as a program partner in advancing Indigenous participation in forestry through the Indigenous Forestry Scholarship Program,” said BC First Nations Forestry Council CEO Lennard (Suxʷsxʷwels) Joe. 
Ecological stoichiometry can help clarify how symbionts and other co-occurring organisms mediate nutrient deficiencies for hosts. We used ecological stoichiometry (comparisons of elemental compositions in food vs consumer) to investigate whether obligate mutualist fungi (Grosmannia clavigera, Ophiostoma montium) of the tree-killing bark beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae (mountain pine beetle) and the invasive tree pathogenic fungus, Cronartium ribicola (causal agent of the disease white pine blister rust) influenced availability of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus to the beetle in Pinus albicaulis (whitebark pine), as well as how these elements varied among three populations of the tree. 
The bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act passed out of the Senate Agriculture Committee on Tuesday morning, marking the first advancement of the bill since it previously stalled in committees under both the Biden and the previous Trump administration. The Act would create an interagency Fireshed Center focused on wildfire prediction and tracking, establish fireshed management areas in forests with high wildfire risks, and expedite the review of wildfire-related forest management projects under the National Environmental Policy Act. The act has gained support from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, along with numerous environmental and wildfire-focused organizations. Critics of the Act claim it would further open up 
EUGENE, Oregon — With the Trump administration poised to rewrite forest management policy, groups are on guard for changes to climate and lumber harvesting sections. Travis Joseph has a message for environmental groups worried that the Pacific Northwest’s oldest trees are about to fall to loggers: Timber companies don’t really want to cut them down. Joseph, who heads a timber industry group and is a former aide to ex-Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon, made that proclamation. …“I love these trees, too,” said Joseph, CEO of the American Forest Resource Council (AFRC). “But they’re at risk. Let’s save them. Let’s come in here and protect them.” Joseph’s group says the threat to big trees in western Oregon — these giants were 5 or 6 feet across at the trunk — isn’t logging. It’s wildfire that’s becoming a bigger menace as climate change makes summers hotter and reduces the winter snowpack. [to access the full story a subscription is required]
Oregon’s 2025 fire season officially wrapped up Friday with significantly fewer acres burned — and at a lower cost to the state — than in previous years. But fires this year got much closer to communities, burning 200 homes and structures. …And humans caused most of this year’s fires. Oregon experienced more than 1,100 fires from early June to mid-October. They burned roughly 350,000 acres, far less than the 1.9 million acres that burned in 2024. Fires this year also cost the state less to fight. …The U.S. Forest Service has had a target for nearly a century of keeping at least 90% of wildfires from growing larger than 10 acres. But it has come under scrutiny by some indigenous wildfire and ecology experts and scientists, as well as Forest Service scientists. They argue that some wildfires must be allowed to burn more acres to help regenerate plants that support animal habitats, reduce pest infestation and invasive species and keep ecosystems healthy.
The Fix Our Forests Act passed out of a Senate committee Tuesday, and now heads to a full vote. Some environmental groups are warning that a federal bill intended to prevent major wildfires could effectively increase logging, cattle grazing and mining on federal lands — which make up half of Oregon’s land base. The bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act passed out of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee on Tuesday and now heads to the Senate floor for a final vote. It could overhaul how the nation prepares its land for wildfires, while also scaling back environmental oversight of land management projects. The bill has conservationists divided. On one side, some advocates say it would bring long-needed changes by fast-tracking prescribed fires. …On the other side, environmental groups say the bill significantly weakens environmental protections and public oversight.
CLANCY, Montana — Healthy forests depend on a strong forest products industry. Sawmills help support thousands of Montana jobs, reduce wildfire risks, and provide a renewable resource. Despite recent mill closures in Missoula and Seeley Lake, Marks Lumber in Clancy continues to carry on. …Both Roseburg Forest Products in Missoula and Pyramid Mountain Lumber in Seeley Lake closed last year. Marks Lumber has been open for 36 years, and they have adapted to industry changes before. “ …In light of the recent closures, they have made some changes, including shifting to more board production (processed wood) rather than the raw tree, which is more expensive to manufacture, and slowing down on how much logging they do. Marks Lumber also had to change where their sawdust and chips go. Roseburg used to buy that material, but now they send them to Weyerhaeuser Forest Products in Columbia Falls.
As the planet heats up, we need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. …‘nature-based climate solutions’ are human interventions that utilize natural processes to draw down carbon from the atmosphere. According to William Anderegg, director of the Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy at the University of Utah, planting forests is an especially promising option. “The central opportunity here is that we can leverage nature,” Anderegg says, “and forests globally have pretty large potential to help with climate change mitigation.” [However], Anderegg says …there are many problems with the programs that seek to plant forests as a climate solution. 
PASCAGOULA, Mississippi — A fire is burning inside one of the wood pellet domes at the Port of Pascagoula. The fire started Monday afternoon inside one of the two Enviva domes at the port. Jackson County Emergency Management Director Earl Etheridge said there is no danger of explosion. Jackson County firefighters are on scene to assist Enviva and port crews. The fire started Monday afternoon inside one of the two Enviva domes at the port. …Etheridge says that Enviva is injecting the dome with pressurized nitrogen to suppress the fire. The fire is contained to the dome. Crews are working to offload the 20,000 metric tons of wood pellets. 
Ten lawsuits have been filed against Drax after diagnoses of asthma allegedly linked to its wood pellet fuel, it has been revealed. Current and former workers at the UK’s largest power station claim they have not been adequately protected against sustained exposure to wood dust, which can cause serious health problems including asthma, dermatitis and nasal cancer. Six compensation claims were settled out of court and four have trial dates in 2026, an investigation by Land and Climate Review found. A class action lawsuit was also filed against the company this month over health concerns in the US, representing 700 people who live near one of Drax’s wood pellet mills in Mississippi. The company is also being investigated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority over “historical statements” made about its wood pellet fuel. 
