Kevin Mason
In mid-April, the Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies (JCHS) released its Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity update, forecasting R&R growth ~+1.6% per quarter between now and Q1/26. This projected growth comes after a modest pullback in R&R spending in 2024 and will be welcomed by North American solid-wood producers given expected declines in demand from new residential construction in the coming quarters. …Recent pricing trends persisted in North American lumber markets over the past month, with S-P-F prices continuing lower while SYP prices moved higher. …A modest seasonal uptick in demand from treaters appears to be one of the catalysts creating SYP price improvement, while the pause on tariffs—the threat of which had previously boosted S-P-F prices—has now precipitated a drop in S-P-F lumber pricing.
As we’ve highlighted exhaustively over the past several months, duties on Canadian lumber exports to the US are scheduled to more than double later this year, and there is still potential for incremental lumber tariffs following a Section 232 investigation (there is the potential for tariffs to extend to panels, etc., but even producers don’t have any clarity). Barring an unlikely spike in lumber demand, many Canadian sawmills are likely to discover that the economics of selling lumber into the US no longer work (unless prices move substantially higher—but that will be driven by closures in Canada). …For Canadian producers, do alternative markets exist, or could a surge in Canadian homebuilding replace some of the lost volumes to the US? In short, there are no easily accessible markets that come close to the size of the US and that can be supplied by Canadian mills.
A meeting between the leaders of Canada and the US is not usually considered a high-stakes showdown, but here was newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney making his first visit to the Oval Office to see President Donald Trump, who has spent months musing about turning America’s northern neighbor into the 51st state. …The interaction offered a glimpse into how Trump has transformed Oval Office meetings from brief and bland encounters into precarious affairs. …His approach can be thrilling for supporters and destabilizing for diplomats accustomed to a more deliberative approach to international relations. … It appears that Carney struck the right balance, at least in Trump’s mind. An invitation to the Oval Office has long been the height of international prestige. …Now, they’re raucous episodes in a foreign policy reality show, starring Trump. While the president can be a gracious host, he openly complains about visitors’ countries.
WASHINGTON, DC — The American Kitchen Cabinet Alliance (AKCA) recently submitted formal comments as part of the Section 232 investigation on Timber, Lumber and Derivatives (including cabinets). Unfairly traded cabinet imports many of them sold at prices that are often over 60% below that of the domestic market are flooding into the US. …“American cabinet manufacturing plants cannot compete with foreign countries flooding the market with unfairly traded cabinets which has resulted in an estimated $6.5 billion in lost revenue to the domestic industry over the last five years,” remarked Perry Miller, President of Kountry Wood Products. “Foreign imports primarily from Cambodia, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam that are heavily subsidized are destroying American cabinet jobs. …“The domestic cabinet industry is on the brink of collapse. “We are asking for a Section 232 tariff of at least 60%, to level the playing field and stop the cheating as we seek to protect over 250,000 American jobs.”
New York — Some of the last cargo ships carrying Chinese goods without crippling tariffs are arriving at US ports. Come next week, that will change. Cargo on ships from China loaded after April 9 will carry with them the 145% tariff President Donald Trump slapped on goods from that nation last month. Next week there will be fewer ships carrying less cargo. For many importers, it is too expensive to do business with China. Yet China is still one of America’s most important trading partners. It’s where we get most of our clothes, footwear, electronics and microchips, which power appliances, thermostats and anything else that beeps. …Forty-five percent of supply chain leaders expect they’ll pass the higher cost from tariffs down to their customers, according to a new survey by Gartner, a corporate research firm. …With fewer cargo ships expected at US ports, local economies will suffer immediately, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles said.
BINGEN, Washington — A plywood mill in the southern Washington city of Bingen will close next month and lay off all 81 workers, the plant’s operator said Thursday. The SDS facility has been operating — with occasional stoppages — since 1949. It uses older equipment, according to Wilkins, Kaiser & Olsen, which was part of a consortium of firms that acquired the mill in 2021. “Regrettably, the long-term challenges and the magnitude of the required investment render continued operation unsustainable,” the mill’s operators said. An adjacent stud mill, planer mill and marine facility will continue operating. Bingen is a small city just across the Columbia River from Hood River. WKO and an affiliated business, Mt. Hood Forest Products, are adding 60 full-time positions to increase their output by 35%. The firms said they will consider hiring some of the laid-off workers.
A federal judge in Jackson, Mississippi, issued an order April 28 allowing a lawsuit by a newspaper publisher and lumber company against the Mississippi River Commission (MRC) to proceed. The lawsuit alleges a lack of transparency in meetings. The suit was originally filed in September 2024. Emmerich Newspapers Inc., which publishes dozens of publications across Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas, sued the MRC over what it claimed were secret meetings where proper records were not kept and the public was not notified or admitted. Emmerich was joined as plaintiff by a lumber company that manages hundreds of acres alongside the Mississippi River. The lumber company claims the Corps of Engineers’ decisions on flood control, informed by advice from the MRC, adversely affect its properties. The judge’s decision allows the lawsuit to proceed without ruling on the merits of the allegations.
Fresh trade data shows deepening US reliance on Canadian goods, even as the president claims the opposite. …According to the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US goods trade deficit with Canada widened to $4.9 billion in March, up sharply from prior months. The surge was driven by higher imports of Canadian-made cars, crude oil, and finished wood products — the exact categories Trump dismissed. Automotive imports rose by $2.6 billion, including a $2.1 billion spike in passenger vehicles, many of which are assembled in Canada. Oil and lumber purchases also increased, contributing to a 14% month-over-month jump in the broader US trade deficit, which hit a new monthly high of $140.5 billion in March. …The US typically runs a services surplus with Canada, and American firms rely heavily on Canadian supply chains in autos, energy, and materials, as the fresh BEA data suggests.
Uncertainty over international trade barriers has caused significant fluctuations in lumber prices in recent months, according to Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter. “The whipsaw fatigue of conflicting tariff announcements over two months had Western Canadian suppliers hoping to see the market settle down,” Kosman. …Some stakeholders held off on buying lumber altogether, while others ordered early in hopes of securing delivery ahead of any potential trade restrictions. “Others decidedly switched their purchasing to Southern Yellow Pine from SPF,” Kosman says. …Data from the WWPA indicates US sawmills were running at only 67% of full capacity in January, compared to 72% for the full-year 2024. In Canada, sawmill utilization was 74% of capacity, down just one percentage point compared to the previous year. …“At this time, there is significant lumber supply able to come back online at existing facilities should demand improve into the summer.”
Lumber futures fell below $550 per thousand board feet, hovering at yearly lows as excess supply from winter restocking collided added to a decline in demand. A 14.2% drop in U.S. single-family housing starts to an annualized 940,000 units in March, pushed new-home inventories to nearly eight months of supply. While a federal directive to raise timber production from public lands by 25% may ease constraints in the long term, the 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs has removed near-term urgency for buyers to cover import risks. At the same time, expectations of sharply higher anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber have prompted mills to hold back supply, further pressuring prices as domestic inventories accumulate and demand remains subdued despite the onset of the spring building season.
BEIJING — China announced a barrage of measures meant to counter the blow to its economy from US President Donald Trump ’s trade war, as the two sides prepared for talks later this week. Beijing’s central bank governor and other top financial officials outlined plans Wednesday to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending. …Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, have begun to take a toll on its export-dependent economy at a time when it’s already under pressure from a prolonged downturn in the property sector. China has retaliated with tariff hikes of up to 125% on US goods and stopped buying most American farm products. Late Tuesday, China and the US announced plans for talks. …The agreement to talk comes at a time when both sides have remained adamant, at least in public, about not compromising on the tariffs.
Mortgage loan applications saw little change in April, as refinancing activity decreased. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the 
The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady later on Wednesday amid fears that President Trump’s tariffs will rekindle inflation and slow economic growth. The decision to keep the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate between 4.25% and 4.5% is widely expected by financial markets despite the president’s repeated demands for the Fed to lower interest rates. …Trade tensions have led to a sharp drop in consumer confidence. But they’ve yet to put much of a dent in the job market. …So long as tariffs threaten to put upward pressure on prices, the Fed will be inclined to keep interest rates relatively high, in an effort to prevent inflation from spiking again. That calculation could change, however, if the job market softens and unemployment starts to climb. Ordinarily, that would push the central bank toward lowering interest rates.
Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first quarter by 0.3%, with imported goods being a large contributor to the decline as the suppliers prepared for President Trump’s tariff proposals once he took office. NAHB estimates this should even out in the second quarter. Other economic data of note are inflation, which is still elevated but creeping downward, and the unemployment rate, which remains low but may edge up among economic uncertainty. …NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz hasn’t hit the panic button yet. And I still think that we don’t know what President Trump’s economy really is yet. It’s been policy by sledgehammer, and now they’re going to start putting the pieces back together.” NAHB Senior Officers and staff continue to actively engage with lawmakers on this and other policies, including a special BUILD-PAC Capital Club event this week featuring an interview with Sen. Tim Sheehy.
Tuesday marked the 100th day of President Trump’s second term in office and there are signs of stress and jitters in the US construction industry, with rising prices, falling confidence, and a sharp uptick in abandoned projects. “Lumber and metals prices shot up in March, while contractors’ inboxes are bulging with ‘Dear Valued Customer’ letters announcing further increases for many products,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist at AGC. “Rapid-fire changes in tariffs threaten to drive prices higher for many essential construction goods,” he added. The price of materials and services used in nonresidential construction rose 0.4% in March, the third monthly increase in a row, AGC said. It was the first time since September 2023 that input prices had risen for three consecutive months, and comes after more than a year of stable or falling prices, Simonson said. …Within the 0.4% hike, lumber and plywood rose 2.7%.
To kick off National Home Remodeling Month in May, which promotes the benefits of hiring a professional remodeler, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has highlighted 
House Republicans have approved an amendment that authorizes the sale of thousands of acres of federal public land in Nevada and Utah; two states where the federal government owns most of the land that have long been at the forefront of a controversial movement to cede control of it to state or private entities. The House Natural Resources committee approved the amendment late Tuesday night after previously indicating federal land sales wouldn’t be included in a budget reconciliation bill. Most of the proposed land sales or exchanges appear to be aimed at building affordable housing on US Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management land outside Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada and in fast growing southwestern Utah around the tourist town of St. George, Utah. …Democrats and environmentalists say the amendment is part of a broader far right push for a wholesale transfer of federal public lands.
The April Monthly Update includes these stories and more:
Material intelligence refers to how materials perform, adapt, and interact with ecological and cultural systems. It considers howstone, steel, or timber respond to intertangled forces, how those materials are sourced and assembled, and how they persist after demolition. Designers are centering material intelligence in constructing our cities in a generation of environmental uncertainty and strained supply chains. Few materials embody this shift as vividly as cross-laminated timber (CLT). By layering and bonding planks into structural panels, CLT offers strength, fire resistance, and a significantly lower carbon footprint than concrete or steel. Across Europe and Canada, mass timber has emerged as a centerpiece of decarbonized construction. Yet in the United States, progress has moved more slowly. Developers hesitate. Codes trail behind innovation. Conventional materials still dominate the urban skyline.
MARYLAND — After five years of work and many interim steps, Maryland became the sixth US state to pass extended producer responsibility legislation for paper and packaging, continuing the policy’s evolution in the country. Sent to the governor on April 7, SB 901 would direct a producer responsibility organization to set goals for post-consumer recycled content, recyclability, recycling and reuse rates, source reduction, composting rates and contamination reduction. However, it also builds on newer elements, such as a phased-in approach to reimbursement, seen last year in Minnesota’s law. …The American Forest and Paper Association has called the bill “misguided.” “EPR programs are helpful for materials that don’t have strong end markets or aren’t highly recycled,” the association wrote. “Paper is a highly recycled material with strong end markets.” …Any EPR program must fully and fairly credit our early and voluntary actions to increase recycling in Maryland and across the country.”
SEATTLE — Recent controversy over the management of Washington’s older state-owned forests has been dominated by an either/or framework: Either we clear-cut these tracts or prevent any harvest at all. Cut it all now or don’t cut any, ever? The human brain loves to dichotomize, but this type of either/or thinking doesn’t work in the woods. Ecologically, economically and culturally, our forests are too complex. Ecologically, climate change is altering our forests rapidly and radically. …Economically, rural areas in Washington state are a microcosm of a pattern that is global in scope. …Cultural values need to be considered as well. …We have to implement a broad array of management models and tools. Instead of re-fighting the 1980s War in the Woods and practicing lawsuit-driven forestry, we need to create flexible, forward-looking practices that will support the health of our forests and rural communities in a time of rapid change.
The Alaska Division of Forestry & Fire Protection (DOF) is working with the Anchorage Fire Department (AFD) Wildfire Division to implement a shaded “fuel break” in the Anchorage Hillside area extending from Hilltop Ski Area Road to Prospect Drive. Known as the East-West Connector, this project was scheduled to begin May 5 and represents a renewed effort to reduce wildfire risk through coordinated mitigation work across the Municipality of Anchorage. Wildfire Division Chief, Anchorage Fire Department, Jon Glover shared this statement: “The collaboration between the State of Alaska Division of Forestry & Fire Protection and the Anchorage Fire Department on the East-West Connector shaded fuel break represents exactly the kind of partnership our community needs. This project is more than a line on a map, it’s a commitment to proactive wildfire mitigation and public safety. Together, we’re building resilience and delivering long-term value to the residents we serve.”
Taking aim at “climate ideologies antithetical to the American way of life,” President Donald Trump’s 
The Washington State Department of Natural Resources recently began a multi-faceted forest restoration project across approximately 150 acres of the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest near Verlot. The Pilchuck Restoration Project is led by the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Federal Lands Program under the agency’s Good Neighbor Authority agreement with the USDA Forest Service. Established in 2014, the GNA allows DNR to leverage its resources with federal and local partners to perform a variety of restoration activities on federal lands. Operators are following a carefully designed prescription focused on thinning out the small-diameter, younger trees that, due to past management practices, are overcrowding tree stands to the detriment of the larger, older trees.
NEW HAMPSHIRE yield tax on timber, often called the “timber tax,” was established in 1949 and has been locally collected to offset property taxes ever since. …The yield tax on timber has been an essential tool for promoting conservation, helping the timber industry, and stabilizing municipal revenues in heavily timbered towns. …The legislation would, “…encourage conservation of the forest resources of [New Hampshire] by releasing growing wood and timber from the yearly burden of local property taxes and substituting a yield tax….” The timber tax has been very effective achieving these goals… The current policy strikes an excellent balance between industry and conservation. There is a new government-promoted industry threatening New Hampshire’s timber industry, loggers, timber processors, and heavily timbered towns that depend on timber tax revenues. Carbon credits.
MONTREAL – Academics at McGill University in Montreal are providing the U.S. scientific community a platform to protect climate research under attack. Six months ago, researchers at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management launched the Sustainability Academic Network — SUSANHub.com — a database that centralizes climate research and data. “We initially created this platform to connect researchers and professionals in sustainable development and climate change,” said Juan Serpa, a professor at the Desautels Faculty of Management, describing the platform as a kind of “LinkedIn” for the field. But at a time when the administration of United States President Donald Trump is firing climate researchers, banning certain words from scientific articles, cutting funding for environmental research, threatening to withdraw financial support from universities, and deleting scientific reports from government websites, the McGill platform has taken on a different significance. “The goal is to protect scientific data against threats from the U.S. government,” Serpa said.