Kelly McCloskey
Every so often, a technical story reveals a simple truth—showing how easily numbers, once baked into the system, can become policy. A recent essay by analyst Alice Palmer… shows how the US Department of Commerce’s anti-dumping calculations turn fair trade into a numerical fiction—and why, even as markets shift, the duties stay high. …Palmer’s finding naturally raises a broader question: if one methodological choice can create a margin from nothing, are other elements in the system doing similar work? …Tree Frog reached out to Palmer and looked further into how the duty calculations are made—first, anti-dumping, then countervailing duties and finally timing. Taken together, the analysis points to a consistent pattern: much of the duty burden reflects method and timing rather than market reality. …If the anti-dumping and countervailing duties were recalculated using complete data (no zeroing), domestic benchmarks (no non-comparable price substitution), and up-to-date prices (no cycle lag), their combined rate—now roughly 35%—would likely fall to minimal levels.
In the wider context, the methodological issues described here are not just statistical—they reflect a system without an effective referee. With the WTO Appellate Body dormant and the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement offering no practical remedy, the usual checks on bias have eroded, leaving little recourse for affected industries. Political-risk analyst Robert McKellar argues that this represents “a structural vulnerability: when the rules are written by the same players who benefit from them.” Just recently, the US Lumber Coalition reinforced that trend, urging that any USMCA extension be conditioned on eliminating the Chapter 10 binational panel review process—a move that would effectively eliminate external oversight of US trade-remedy decisions. ..As McKellar noted, this tension between political power and economic logic typifies today’s protectionist era—a system where duties reflect not only distorted math but also the absence of a functioning arbiter to restore balance.
On August 5, 2025, 
VANCOUVER — Politicians from B.C. and Ottawa will meet in Vancouver today for a forestry summit on how to prop up the industry in the face of American fees and tariffs topping 50 per cent. Federal politicians including Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, along with B.C. Premier David Eby and his forests and jobs ministers, are set to discuss ways to support workers and businesses being hammered by the increased fees. In September, the Americans imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian companies ranging from 26 per cent to more than 47 per cent, and then added another 10 per cent last month, claiming Canada’s industry is a U.S. national security threat. B.C.’s goal for the summit is to push for more federal help for the industry that employs tens of thousands of workers in the province. The softwood lumber dispute has been a friction point for decades.
Politicians from BC and Ottawa met in Vancouver Monday for a forestry summit, where they agreed to create a working group on supporting the industry in the face of ever-increasing U.S. fees and tariffs. …Speaking after the forestry summit on Monday, he said the federal government’s commitment to a working group with the province felt “very heartening.” Kim Haakstad, the president of the B.C. Council of Forest Industries, said in a statement that the group is pleased the governments are working together to keep people working — even when markets are challenging. Haakstad said the working group should also include the industry to help focus on keeping mills open, which means prioritizing a new softwood lumber deal and accelerating the rollout of the $1.2 billion from federal government.
Uh oh. BC Premier David Eby is about to launch his own anti-tariff advertising campaign aimed at US citizens. Eby said this week he expects ads targeting US lumber penalties to begin airing some time in November. It’s safe to say they will not mention Ronald Reagan. …Eby’s teaser for the BC ad campaign shows stacks of Canadian lumber, overlaid with a simplified graph of “winners” and “losers,” terms US President Trump likes to use. In these ads, the losers are American consumers and the Canadian lumber industry, and the winners are the Russians. “It’s important to speak directly to Americans looking to build homes or renovate,” Eby said. …Eby’s got a better case on lumber trade than Ford has on cars and trucks. US home builders have acknowledged that they can’t produce enough lumber for domestic needs, despite Trump’s claim that the US has plenty of trees.
Arkansas’ timber industry, like Arkansas’ agriculture industry, is in trouble. The causes of the trouble are various, but one cause stands out for both: the Trump administration’s trade war. In October, Arkansas House Speaker Brian Evans, R-Cabot, joined the speakers of the Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina houses of representatives urging Congress to move to relieve “an industry in crisis.” “Under current US trade policy, products and shipments from US exporters are becoming stuck en route to their final destination due to immediately imposed tariffs,” the letter said. The state’s forestry sector supports more than 50,000 jobs and contributes about $6.1 billion to Arkansas’ economy, more than 4% of the state’s GDP. “The trade war has impacted our ability to export hardwood logs out of Arkansas,” Matthew Pelkki, at the University of Arkansas at Monticello, said. [to access the full story an Arkansas Business subscription is required]
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its third quarter of 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $208 million and a net loss of $172 million. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, stated: “The ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty, in conjunction with punitive US softwood lumber duties, led to persistently weak market conditions and subdued demand across all of our operating regions during the third quarter of 2025. …For the lumber segment, the operating loss was $182.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter’s operating loss of $229.2 million. …For the 
Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.
MONTREAL, Quebec – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $958 million, up 5% from Q3 2024; Operating income of $135 million, up 4% from Q3 2024; EBITDA of $171 million, or 17.8% margin, up 6% from Q3 2024; and Net Income of $88 million, up 10% from Q3, 2024. …“Stella-Jones achieved another solid performance in the third quarter, supported by volume improvements, robust margins, improved cash flow and a strong balance sheet,” said Eric Vachon, CEO. …The increase in pressure-treated wood sales resulted from an increase in utility poles and industrial products volumes and higher pricing for railway ties and residential lumber. This was partially offset by lower pricing for utility poles. Logs and lumber sales decreased by $14 million or 47%, mainly driven by lower logs activity.
An extended slowdown in sales of cardboard boxes is intensifying concern that this holiday season will be a disappointing one for US retailers. US corrugated box shipments fell to the lowest third-quarter reading since 2015, maintaining the more measured pace seen in the previous quarter, according to the Fibre Box Association. Packaging companies in recent weeks have warned that economic uncertainty is weighing on retailers and consumers. …This time of year is crucial for the box industry, with shipments typically peaking in October as retailers prepare for the holidays. Box plants said orders were flat or below normal in October, while US consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low and manufacturing activity dropped for an eighth straight month. …US box industry shipments are poised to drop 1% to 1.5% this year versus 2024,” IP’s Andy Silvernail said last week. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
Kimberly-Clark is buying Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash and stock deal worth about $48.7 billion, creating a massive consumer health goods company. Shareholders of Kimberly-Clark will own about 54% of the combined company. Kenvue shareholders will own about 46%. The combined company will have a large stable of household brands under one roof, putting Kenvue’s Listerine mouthwash and Band-Aid side-by-side with Kimberly-Clark’s Cottonelle toilet paper, Huggies and Kleenex tissues. It will also generate about $32 billion in annual revenue. Kenvue has spent a relatively brief period as an independent company, having been spun off by Johnson & Johnson two years ago. The deal announced Monday is among the largest corporate takeovers of the year. …The deal is expected to close in the second half of next year. It still needs approval from shareholders of both both companies. …Shares of Kimberly-Clark slipped more than 15% before the market open, while Kenvue’s stock jumped more than 20%.
FORT ST. JOHN, BC — Every single wildfire in northeast B.C. is now either ‘under control’ or extinguished as temperatures decline and snow starts to fall across the province. The BC Wildfire Service website shows the last two ‘out of control’ wildfires in the region, both located near Fort Nelson — are now ‘under control.’That means they’re not expected to spread beyond their current boundaries, as opposed to an ‘out of control’ wildfire that’s expected to keep burning aggressively. …Several other wildfires that were previously listed as ‘being held’ — meaning they’re expected to temporarily remain within their current boundaries, but could become ‘out of control’ again — have also been downgraded to ‘under control.’ …This year’s wildfire season saw over 300 wildfires in the PGFC coverage area.
The steep flanks of Tsitika Mountain on northern Vancouver Island are scarred with clearcuts and slash piles almost to the boundary of the Tsitika Mountain and Robson Bight ecological reserves. High above the Tsitika River, 34 hectares of towering conifers, cliffs, and waterfalls are on the auction block. The parcel, labelled TA 1375 by BC Timber Sales, was recommended for deferral by BC’s advisory panel. That would have suspended logging, possibly permanently. Instead, BCTS is putting TA 1375 up for sale. …The steep and rugged terrain is a challenge for prospective loggers, but they face plenty of other obstacles. …Independent researchers at Tsitika Mountain made a surprising discovery this year: a Pacific Wild program recorded over 300 marbled murrelets flying through the area in one month.
TORONTO — As the 2025 fire season ends, Ontario’s fire crews, aviation services and support staff responded to 643 fires between April and October with 597,654 hectares burned. While the 2025 fire season began with an early active start, the coordinated efforts of frontline staff, municipalities, Indigenous communities and firefighting crews ensured a rapid response to protect people and communities from wildland fires. …With the rest of Canada also experiencing a demanding fire season, Ontario extended support to our partners, with over 400 fire personnel and six aircraft supporting firefighting in British Columbia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, as well as south of the border in Minnesota. As this year’s fire season ends, Ontario is now turning its focus to ensuring provincial fire crews are ready to respond next fire season. …The 2026 fire season will begin on April 1, 2026.
PORTLAND, Oregon — The question of whether two logging companies conspired to monopolize markets in an eastern Oregon forest came before a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit on Wednesday as a coalition urged the court to revive its antitrust challenge. US Circuit Judge Milan Smith noted the case was unlike other antitrust suits. …In 2013, the U.S. Forest Service granted the logging company Iron Triangle a 10-year stewardship contract for the Malheur National Forest, as well as associated logging rights. A group of landowners, loggers and an eastern Oregon lumber sawmill — known collectively as the Malheur Forest Coalition — sued Iron Triangle in 2022, arguing that the company exploited control of the contract and should be blocked from competing for harvest rights in U.S. Forest Service public auctions. The lower court denied the request, prompting a new complaint adding the Malheur Lumber Company as a defendant.
Durable, renewable and biodegradable, wood is an ideal material. And as we grapple with the aftermath of synthetic materials, such as forever chemicals and microplastics, the humble material growing in our literal backyards is suddenly looking pretty appealing again. But how do you know it wasn’t clearcut from a rainforest? Figuring out logging practices, deforestation policies, impact on wildlife, pesticide use, and impact on indigenous communities “can be really challenging”, said Linda Walker at the World Wildlife Fund. …That’s where certifications come in. A growing number of wood industry certifications are designed to guide consumers. They’re not perfect. Some have rules written by big timber. Almost all of them receive payments from companies seeking certifications. There is no seal that encompasses every issue, but don’t let perfect be the enemy of good – even the most flawed badges have some baseline value.
BOGOTA, Colombia — Interpol and partners launched a global law enforcement effort Wednesday aimed at dismantling criminal networks behind illegal logging, timber trafficking and gold mining, which drive large-scale deforestation and generate billions in illicit profits each year. The effort announced ahead of the UN COP30 climate summit in Brazil will focus mainly on tropical forests in Brazil, Ecuador, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Peru. “Criminals are making billions by looting the planet’s forests,” Interpol Secretary General Valdecy Urquiza said. “The only way to stop them is through determined law enforcement action and strong international cooperation.” …The announcement follows a major crackdown in the Amazon Basin last week, when Brazilian police, supported by Interpol, destroyed more than 270 illegal mining dredges operating on the Madeira River. Authorities said the raids dealt a significant blow to criminal groups linked to gold-smuggling networks that span Brazil, Bolivia and Peru.
BELEM, Brazil — Google has struck its biggest carbon removal deal, agreeing to finance restoration of the Amazon rainforest with Brazilian startup Mombak, as big tech hunts for high-quality credits to offset emissions tied to energy-hungry data centres. The companies said the deal would offset 200,000 metric tons of carbon emissions. …The agreement highlights how big tech is looking for ways to soften the climate impacts of its huge investment in power-intensive data centres for AI, driving demand to offset carbon emissions through Brazil’s nascent reforestation industry. Last year, Alphabet’s Google committed more than US$100 million to an array of different carbon capture technologies, from enhanced rock weathering and biochar to direct air capture and a project making rivers more acidic. But when it came time to double down, it was hard to beat the efficiency of planting trees. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
