Kelly McCloskey
Every so often, a technical story reveals a simple truth—showing how easily numbers, once baked into the system, can become policy. A recent essay by analyst Alice Palmer… shows how the US Department of Commerce’s anti-dumping calculations turn fair trade into a numerical fiction—and why, even as markets shift, the duties stay high. …Palmer’s finding naturally raises a broader question: if one methodological choice can create a margin from nothing, are other elements in the system doing similar work? …Tree Frog reached out to Palmer and looked further into how the duty calculations are made—first, anti-dumping, then countervailing duties and finally timing. Taken together, the analysis points to a consistent pattern: much of the duty burden reflects method and timing rather than market reality. …If the anti-dumping and countervailing duties were recalculated using complete data (no zeroing), domestic benchmarks (no non-comparable price substitution), and up-to-date prices (no cycle lag), their combined rate—now roughly 35%—could fall to minimal levels.
In the wider context, the methodological issues described here are not just statistical—they reflect a system without an effective referee. The WTO Appellate Body remains dormant after the US blocked new appointments, and the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement (known in Canada as CUSMA and in the United States as USMCA) offers no practical remedy. The usual checks on bias have eroded, leaving little recourse for affected industries. Political-risk analyst Robert McKellar argues that this represents “a structural vulnerability: when the rules are written by the same players who benefit from them.” Just recently, the US Lumber Coalition reinforced that trend, urging that any USMCA extension be conditioned on eliminating the Chapter 10 binational panel review process—a move that would effectively eliminate external oversight of US trade-remedy decisions. …As McKellar noted, this tension between political power and economic logic typifies today’s protectionist era—a system where duties reflect not only distorted math but also the absence of a functioning arbiter to restore balance.
On August 5, 2025, 
BEIJING — China will restore soybean import licences for three US firms and lift its suspension on US log imports starting November 10, its customs authority said on Friday in another sign of easing trade tensions between the two nations. …The halt on US log imports was a retaliatory measure after US President Trump’s March 1 order to investigate lumber imports. Investor sentiment improved after Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, reducing fears that the world’s two largest economies might abandon efforts to resolve their trade disputes. Following the meeting, Beijing lifted tariffs on some US farm goods. …However, traders remain cautious, as a 10% tariff on all US imports remains in effect, limiting expectations for a broader recovery in trade flows.
NEW YORK — Mercer International reported third quarter 2025 Operating EBITDA of negative $28.1 million, a decrease from positive $50.5 million in the same quarter of 2024 and negative $20.9 million in the second quarter of 2025. In the third quarter of 2025, net loss was $80.8 million compared to $17.6 million in the same quarter of 2024 and $86.1 million in the second quarter of 2025. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “In the third quarter of 2025, persistent global economic and trade uncertainties, fiber scarcity in Germany as well as the impact of pulp substitution accelerated the decline in pulp market demand and pricing, which negatively impacted our operating results and contributed to a $20.4 million non-cash inventory impairment charge in the quarter.
BURNABY, BC — Interfor reported its Q3, 2025 results. The company recorded a net loss of $215.8 million compared to net earnings of $11.1 million in Q2’25 and a net loss of $105.7 million in Q3’24. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $183.8 million on sales of $689.3 million in Q3’25 versus Adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million on sales of $780.5 million in Q2’25 and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $22.0 million on sales of $692.7 million in Q3’24. Lumber production of 912 million board feet was down 23 million board feet versus the preceding quarter. This decline largely reflects the Company’s announcement on September 4, 2025, to temporarily curtail production. …Weak lumber market conditions were reflected in Interfor’s average selling price of $618 per mfbm, down $66 per mfbm versus Q2’25. …Interfor’s strategy of maintaining a diversified portfolio of operations in multiple regions allows the Company to both reduce risk and maximize returns on capital over the business cycle.
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its third quarter of 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $208 million and a net loss of $172 million. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, stated: “The ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty, in conjunction with punitive US softwood lumber duties, led to persistently weak market conditions and subdued demand across all of our operating regions during the third quarter of 2025. …For the lumber segment, the operating loss was $182.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter’s operating loss of $229.2 million. …For the 
Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.
MONTREAL, Quebec – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $958 million, up 5% from Q3 2024; Operating income of $135 million, up 4% from Q3 2024; EBITDA of $171 million, or 17.8% margin, up 6% from Q3 2024; and Net Income of $88 million, up 10% from Q3, 2024. …“Stella-Jones achieved another solid performance in the third quarter, supported by volume improvements, robust margins, improved cash flow and a strong balance sheet,” said Eric Vachon, CEO. …The increase in pressure-treated wood sales resulted from an increase in utility poles and industrial products volumes and higher pricing for railway ties and residential lumber. This was partially offset by lower pricing for utility poles. Logs and lumber sales decreased by $14 million or 47%, mainly driven by lower logs activity.
An extended slowdown in sales of cardboard boxes is intensifying concern that this holiday season will be a disappointing one for US retailers. US corrugated box shipments fell to the lowest third-quarter reading since 2015, maintaining the more measured pace seen in the previous quarter, according to the Fibre Box Association. Packaging companies in recent weeks have warned that economic uncertainty is weighing on retailers and consumers. …This time of year is crucial for the box industry, with shipments typically peaking in October as retailers prepare for the holidays. Box plants said orders were flat or below normal in October, while US consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low and manufacturing activity dropped for an eighth straight month. …US box industry shipments are poised to drop 1% to 1.5% this year versus 2024,” IP’s Andy Silvernail said last week. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
The steep flanks of Tsitika Mountain on northern Vancouver Island are scarred with clearcuts and slash piles almost to the boundary of the Tsitika Mountain and Robson Bight ecological reserves. High above the Tsitika River, 34 hectares of towering conifers, cliffs, and waterfalls are on the auction block. The parcel, labelled TA 1375 by BC Timber Sales, was recommended for deferral by BC’s advisory panel. That would have suspended logging, possibly permanently. Instead, BCTS is putting TA 1375 up for sale. …The steep and rugged terrain is a challenge for prospective loggers, but they face plenty of other obstacles. …Independent researchers at Tsitika Mountain made a surprising discovery this year: a Pacific Wild program recorded over 300 marbled murrelets flying through the area in one month.
TORONTO — As the 2025 fire season ends, Ontario’s fire crews, aviation services and support staff responded to 643 fires between April and October with 597,654 hectares burned. While the 2025 fire season began with an early active start, the coordinated efforts of frontline staff, municipalities, Indigenous communities and firefighting crews ensured a rapid response to protect people and communities from wildland fires. …With the rest of Canada also experiencing a demanding fire season, Ontario extended support to our partners, with over 400 fire personnel and six aircraft supporting firefighting in British Columbia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, as well as south of the border in Minnesota. As this year’s fire season ends, Ontario is now turning its focus to ensuring provincial fire crews are ready to respond next fire season. …The 2026 fire season will begin on April 1, 2026.
BOISI, Idaho — The Trump Administration’s decision earlier this year to do away with the 2001 Roadless Area Conseravtion Rule on national forest lands sent shockwaves through environmental and outdoor recreation communities. According to environmentalists and an Idaho public official who has been involved in roadless rule politics since the issue’s inception, the move could transport stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest back to the rancor and political divisions of the timber war years. …“The national rule itself put the whole timber wars to bed. It really did,” said James Caswell, former director of the Bureau of Land Management. …The rule led to conditions in which environmentalists became less combative about forest management, according to Caswell. Instead, enviros became more willing to work with timber industry and Forest Service officials. …The decision puts the forest objectives of fishermen, hunters, ATVers, bird watchers and others on the back burner.
CORVALLIS, Oregon – Rising wildfire risk in the Pacific Northwest combined with notoriously volatile timber pricing may lower forestland values by as much as 50% and persuade plantation owners to harvest trees much earlier than planned, a 
PORTLAND, Oregon — The question of whether two logging companies conspired to monopolize markets in an eastern Oregon forest came before a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit on Wednesday as a coalition urged the court to revive its antitrust challenge. US Circuit Judge Milan Smith noted the case was unlike other antitrust suits. …In 2013, the U.S. Forest Service granted the logging company Iron Triangle a 10-year stewardship contract for the Malheur National Forest, as well as associated logging rights. A group of landowners, loggers and an eastern Oregon lumber sawmill — known collectively as the Malheur Forest Coalition — sued Iron Triangle in 2022, arguing that the company exploited control of the contract and should be blocked from competing for harvest rights in U.S. Forest Service public auctions. The lower court denied the request, prompting a new complaint adding the Malheur Lumber Company as a defendant.
BOGOTA, Colombia — Interpol and partners launched a global law enforcement effort Wednesday aimed at dismantling criminal networks behind illegal logging, timber trafficking and gold mining, which drive large-scale deforestation and generate billions in illicit profits each year. The effort announced ahead of the UN COP30 climate summit in Brazil will focus mainly on tropical forests in Brazil, Ecuador, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Peru. “Criminals are making billions by looting the planet’s forests,” Interpol Secretary General Valdecy Urquiza said. “The only way to stop them is through determined law enforcement action and strong international cooperation.” …The announcement follows a major crackdown in the Amazon Basin last week, when Brazilian police, supported by Interpol, destroyed more than 270 illegal mining dredges operating on the Madeira River. Authorities said the raids dealt a significant blow to criminal groups linked to gold-smuggling networks that span Brazil, Bolivia and Peru.
BELEM, Brazil — Google has struck its biggest carbon removal deal, agreeing to finance restoration of the Amazon rainforest with Brazilian startup Mombak, as big tech hunts for high-quality credits to offset emissions tied to energy-hungry data centres. The companies said the deal would offset 200,000 metric tons of carbon emissions. …The agreement highlights how big tech is looking for ways to soften the climate impacts of its huge investment in power-intensive data centres for AI, driving demand to offset carbon emissions through Brazil’s nascent reforestation industry. Last year, Alphabet’s Google committed more than US$100 million to an array of different carbon capture technologies, from enhanced rock weathering and biochar to direct air capture and a project making rivers more acidic. But when it came time to double down, it was hard to beat the efficiency of planting trees. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]