A new global risk assessment is warning that no country would be more “profoundly affected” by a political upheaval in the US than Canada. Published Monday, the Eurasia Group’s “Top Risks For 2026″ report cites deep economic, security and geographic ties that leave Canada especially exposed to instability south of the border. Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, identifies what it calls a potential U.S. “political revolution” – driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to consolidate power, “capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his enemies” – as the most significant threats to global stability this year. Canada is exposed because it is closely tied to the US through geography, trade and defence, meaning sudden political or policy changes in Washington could have an outsized impact on Canada. Former foreign affairs minister Lloyd Axworthy warned that Canada must be prepared for a more aggressive and transactional US approach.
VANCOUVER, BC — West Fraser Timber announced that it will record an impairment of its Lumber segment goodwill in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to persistently challenging economic conditions. The Company is also providing initial 2026 guidance for key product shipments, operational costs and capital expenditures. In Q4-2025, West Fraser expects to record an approximately $409 million non-cash impairment of goodwill as a result of the protracted downcycle that has caused management to recalibrate certain assumptions used in its annual goodwill impairment test. Adjustments to these assumptions include, but are not limited to, species-specific product pricing trends, lower demand and pricing for wood chip residuals, and the depth and duration of the current downcycle and its expected recovery. The impairment represents the entire amount of goodwill associated with the Company’s US lumber operations.
The union representing 350 Crofton mill workers facing layoffs next month wants federal money earmarked for softwood lumber workers to pay for early retirement for some of its members. Geoff Dawe, president of the Public and Private Workers of Canada, said he’s not sure why it’s taken so long for the provincial government to negotiate its share of a $50-million federal fund aimed at supporting softwood lumber workers. The fund is for income support and costs of re-training an estimated 6,000 forestry workers across the country. …Dawe wants some of that $50 million to go toward an early-retirement fund for members who will be out of work when forestry company Domtar starts laying off its Crofton workers on Feb. 3. …Dawe said the provincial and federal governments should bring back a lump-sum payment program for older mill workers that will “leave them some dignity.”
The Scierie St-Elzéar in Quebec, Canada, isn’t just a lumber mill; it’s a glimpse into the future of forestry. A $32.7 million investment in modernization, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, is transforming the 80-year-old cooperative into a highly efficient, technologically advanced operation. …The core driver behind this shift is a growing labor shortage. …The St-Elzéar mill has reduced the number of personnel needed for planing operations from 16 to 8, while tripling productivity and boosting product quality by nearly 50%. This isn’t about replacing workers; it’s about shifting their roles. …The integration of AI isn’t limited to a single process. At Scierie St-Elzéar, AI-powered systems now identify wood species, allowing for the creation of more homogenous lumber batches for drying – a critical step in quality control. 
Plywood importer InterGlobal Forest, which is seeking a rehearing of its case challenging CBP’s finding that it evaded antidumping and countervailing duties on plywood from China, 
One of Maine’s largest mills is again accepting Canadian wood from New Brunswick, after briefly halting shipments citing the cost of American tariffs. Woodland Pulp in Baileyville, Maine – situated on the banks of the St. Croix River a short drive across the border from St. Stephen – stopped purchases of New Brunswick timber in mid-October in the aftermath of higher US tariffs. Shortly after, it shut down completely for 26 days, citing a challenging global pulp market. That led to the temporary lay off of 144 employees. But now back in operation, Woodland Pulp says its full complement of staff is returning and that the decision was made to restart accepting Canadian fibre, including wood chips. …Spokesperson Scott Beal said it remains unclear how much the mill will purchase from New Brunswick sources going forward.. …Tariffs are paid by the importer. [to access the full story a Telegraph-Journal subscription is required]
Canada is becoming far more attractive in commodity goods to the rest of the world, as it diversifies its trade away from the US, says one analyst. Imports outpaced exports in October. Merchandise imports increased by 3.4% in October while exports increased by 2.1%. Because of this, Canada’s merchandise trade balance went from a surplus of $243 million in September to a $583 million deficit in October. …William Pellerin, a trade lawyer, said whether it be Malaysian kitchen cabinet manufacturers, or Chinese goods, he said “Canada is becoming far more attractive at lower pricing in many commodity goods and in many manufactured sectors.” On the other hand, the data shows exports to the US made up 67.3% of all Canadian exports, which is the lowest since the pandemic. …Cabinet and wood makers face a difficult challenge as they face a 25% tariff and lose access to the US market, said Pellerin.
Lumber futures slid below $530 per thousand board feet, testing the lowest levels since October 2024, as weak near-term demand collided with abundant and re-emerging supply. Homebuilding activity remains subdued and mortgage borrowing costs are still elevated, restraining new starts and repair and remodel demand, while US housing starts have softened and 30-year mortgage rates entered January little changed near the mid-6% range. At the same time structural supply pressures are returning, with several panel and OSB mills ramping up or preparing to add capacity and shifts in North American output seeing Canadian curtailments largely offset by higher production in the US South, keeping physical availability ample and capping any upside. In the meantime, inventory and futures market activity increased over the holiday period, amplifying downside moves when buyers stayed sidelined after year-end and seasonal restocking remained muted. [END]
B.C.’s GDP is forecast to increase by 1.6% this year, 
WASHINGTON — US single-family homebuilding rebounded in October, but permits for future construction eased, signaling caution among builders as new housing inventory remains high and demand soft. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units in October, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Friday. Starts dropped to a pace of 829,000 units in September from a 869,000-unit pace in August. The reports were delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. …Permits for future single-family homebuilding fell 0.5% to a rate of 876,000 units in October. They increased to a pace of 880,000 units in September from a 858,000-unit rate in August.
Long-term mortgage rates have been declining since mid- 2025 and ended the year at their lowest level since September 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% in December, 5 basis points (bps) lower than November. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 3 bps to 5.48%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is lower by about half a percentage point, or 53 basis points (bps). The 15-year rate is also lower by 45 bps. …Falling lower mortgage rates have started to translate into gains as existing home sales edged up slightly in November. However, this increase remains limited as mortgage rates above 6% are still considered elevated. Nonetheless, as financing costs continue decline, more households are likely to reenter the housing market. …NAHB expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average 6.17% in 2026 and would reach 6% by 2027.
KUCHING, Malasia — Chinese timber companies are struggling in their businesses due to insufficient orders for their products amid a weak global market. They have complained about poor demand in the timber market and intense competition in terms of product prices. Adding to their woes are rising raw material costs, according to the key challenges reported in the Global Timber Index-China Index report in November 2025. …To mitigate the challenges, Chinese enterprises suggested the need to expand into international markets to increase the volume of orders for their products, and called for government policy support for their operations. …Back home, China reported strong domestic retail sales of furniture, reaching 17.9 billion yuan in October, a 9.6 per cent increase from a year ago. …In a related development, China reported a robust export market for its particleboard, which surged by 67 per cent in volume.
A BC judge has quashed a decision from the province to transfer a major forestry licence to an Indigenous-owned forestry company, after the government was found to have failed to uphold the “honour of the Crown” with a neighbouring nation. The Jan. 8 ruling centred on the BC Ministry of Forest’s decision to approve the transfer of a forest licence to the Kitsumkalum First Nation. The transfer, which occurred after the previous holder Skeena Sawmills entered into bankruptcy proceedings in 2023, was opposed by eight Gitanyow hereditary chiefs. … In his decision, the judge found the government oversimplified the impacts of the transfer, and relied on “hope and optimism” that the two First Nations could reach an agreement. …The Gitanyow had called on the court to quash the transfer of the forestry licence. Instead, the judge forced the province to reconsider the licence transfer while properly consulting with the Gitanyow.
Between the attention on forests at COP30, emerging regulations, and many corporate pledges, 2025 was slated to be the year that companies eliminate the practice within their supply chains of clearing forests and natural landscapes for production. As the calendar has turned to 2026, the truth is that we now know that dozens of the most at-risk companies have not reached that goal – but a few market leaders are proving that cleaning up supply chains is possible. Let’s be clear: Protecting forests makes economic sense. Industries depend on the benefits that natural ecosystems provide to grow food, transport goods, and manufacture products. Harming nature poses compounding financial risks to companies and their investors. …Growing awareness of the risks of biodiversity decline and the advantages of acting quickly have spurred private sector action in recent years, and we saw more positive developments unfold last year.
Australia’s trees must contend with many lethal factors, from intense megafires to introduced diseases and invasive species. But beyond these specific pressures, new research indicates the underlying natural death rate of trees in major forests across the country is rising. This increase in tree deaths is due to higher average temperatures from climate change, according to a study 
Forest management has entered a phase defined by competing pressures. Fire risk is rising. Biomass residues are accumulating. Carbon accounting expectations are tightening. Pyrolysis has emerged as a technical lever capable of addressing these constraints simultaneously. Its value lies not in abstract sustainability claims, but in its operational and ecological consequences when integrated into forestry systems. Reducing Fuel Load and Wildfire IntensitymOne of the most immediate benefits of pyrolysis in forest management is fuel load reduction. Thinning operations, deadwood removal, and post-harvest residues generate large volumes of low-grade biomass. When left unmanaged, this material increases wildfire probability and severity. …When treated as an ancillary technology, pyrolysis underperforms. When embedded as a strategic tool, it amplifies the effectiveness of existing management practices. Pyrolysis contributes by connecting fuel reduction, carbon management, soil health, and economic viability within a single operational logic. 
Last year will be remembered as a real test of commitment for the global sustainability agenda. Political uncertainty and regulatory rollbacks, particularly the weakening of flagship EU legislation such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and yet another delay in enforcing the European Union Deforestation Regulation, signal a troubling loss of resolve. These decisions reward inaction and deter the very ambition needed to secure long-term economic and environmental resilience. But the crisis of nature loss should not be left to the shifting winds of policy; it requires businesses to step forward and lead the way. As we enter 2026, a pivotal triple-COP year for climate, biodiversity and desertification, it’s time to look past the political noise. While compliance meets today’s requirements, only a deeper commitment to the environment can protect a business against the lasting costs of nature loss. 
