Kevin Mason
The US tariff regime is far from over despite a US Supreme Court ruling striking down last year’s tariffs authorized by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Although the court noted in its ruling that the president overstepped his authority in applying reciprocal tariffs on virtually all trading partners, it did leave the door open for other means of tariff application—and the US Administration has wasted no time in charging through that door, turning to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new global tariffs of 10% (likely moving to 15%). Tariffs under Section 122 expire after 150 days without congressional approval, but we assume other options will be put in place before expiry (Section 232, 301 or some other creative mechanism).
With respect to the forest products industry, cessation of IEEPA tariffs and application of these new Section 122 tariffs have no impact on existing lumber duties (35% remains intact), nor for any existing tariffs under Section 232 (at 10%) or goods currently compliant under USMCA (such goods remain tariff-free under Section 122). Although USMCA-compliant goods are safe from tariffs for now, with that trade deal being reviewed this summer the tariff-free flow of goods among the US, Mexico and Canada could be upended. Since almost all newsprint supply comes from Canada (see page 19), that fear is ostensibly already causing U.S. buyers to accelerate purchases. Our table details what we know at the moment about the new tariff regime (Section 122 at 10% but probably moving to 15%). Brazil and China appear to be winners in these latest moves, but, with other mechanisms available to Trump, we don’t think these recent tariff reductions are going to lead to any dramatic increase in imports from these countries (uncertainty seems to be part of the goal under Trump’s methods).
Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc says he sees a path to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and anticipates more specifics from the U.S. administration soon. Gearing up to head back to Washington, DC next week to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and “others” next week, LeBlanc said he’s “not pessimistic about renewing the trilateral framework.” “Renewing. It doesn’t expire, it expires in 2036. But the review is not a renegotiation,” LeBlanc said. LeBlanc said two of the key factors underpinning his optimism are that when US President Trump levied his latest global tariff, he maintained the CUSMA exemption, and because American political and business leaders are “speaking up more now.” …Amid speculation that Trump wants to scrap the trilateral trade pact and strike trade deals with Canada and Mexico independently, LeBlanc said the way he sees it, Trump may pursue separate bilateral deals, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the end of CUSMA.
Anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and now additional tariffs on softwood lumber and derivative wood products add to a long history of trade measures applied to Canadian exports. …Recent trade data shows exports of targeted wood products to the US have declined by roughly 11% in 2025 from a year earlier with losses concentrated in Quebec and BC. Export gains elsewhere have only partially compensated for reduced US market access—in part reflecting the geographical constraints in shipping lumber and wood products. …Average industrial capacity utilization rate for wood product manufacturing has declined roughly 10 percentage points to 75% in 2025 Q3 from a decade earlier, while employment in sawmills and wood preservation fell roughly 20% between May 2017 and November 2025 with more pronounced declines in BC (-32%) and Quebec (-13%). …Reduced domestic supply could also put pressure on downstream industries such as pulp and paper mills and construction. The combination of weak demand and constrained supply raises the risk of further production curtailments and mill closures.
US President Donald Trump just lost his biggest emergency tariff weapon at the US Supreme Court – but for Canadian exporters and long‑term investors, the real story is that the pressure has shifted to narrower, more strategic sectors that matter for jobs, growth and returns. …Trump reacted by promising new tariffs through other statutes. …Section 232 now defines Canada’s real exposure. …Softwood timber and lumber: 10 percent tariffs imposed last October, alongside US countervailing and anti‑dumping duties on Canadian lumber that the Commerce Department increased from 14.5 percent to 35 percent earlier this year. …Upholstered wooden furniture, cabinets and vanities: 25 percent tariffs since last October; a planned increase in January was paused. …Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister for US–Canadian trade relations, told CBC News that “what’s hurting the Canadian economy are the sectoral tariffs under a different American law,” and said this “reminds us again of the importance of diversifying our trading relationships.” 
President Donald Trump announced a temporary import duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, shortly after the US Supreme Court struck down his tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Section 122 surcharge is scheduled to take effect February 24 and remain in place for up to 150 days. Under the proclamation, Section 122 duties do not apply to goods that are subject to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or that are USMCA compliant. The implications for wood products are as follows:
Twenty years after spinning out Canfor Pulp Products as a separate entity, Canfor Corp. plans to bring it back into the fold to prevent the subsidiary from sinking. …Since December, its stock has plunged to about $0.50 per share. A March 6 shareholder vote on a plan of arrangement is just one of the vital signs indicating how bad 2025 was for the forestry sector in general, and BC forestry companies in particular. …But B.C. has been particularly hard hit with sawmill and pulp mill closures due to its fibre constraints and higher operating costs. The most recent high-profile mill closure in BC was the Domtar pulp mill in Crofton at the end of December. BC pulp mills rely on wood chips from sawmills to produce pulp. But so many sawmills have permanently shuttered in B.C. in the last few years that pulp mills now struggle to find enough fibre to run their mills.
On Dec. 2, 2025, Domtar announced it would permanently close Crofton’s nearly 70-year-old mill citing a lack of affordable fibre in BC and rising cost of materials. In response, the Municipality of North Cowichan created a Community Transition Table to coordinate union leadership, worker support and discussions on the future of the mill site. …The Discourse has compiled a timeline of major events at the Crofton mill to help understand the historical context of the latest mill closure. …1957: The mill opens and BC Forest Products (BCFP) told the citizens of Crofton it would employ 300 people and have an annual payroll of $1.5 million. Crofton was chosen as the location for the mill after an “extensive” three year survey by BCFP found the Cowichan River had adequate water supply for the mill. 1963: BCFP announced an $18.5 million expansion of the Crofton mill to expand the capacity to produce paper for its second newsprint machine.
HOUSTON, BC –Houston area First Nations were in talks to buy Canfor’s now-closed Houston sawmill and timber tenure throughout last fall, only to have an offer rejected in December, says the chief councillor from the Lake Babine Nation. “Canfor shut down all talks at once,” said Wilf Adam last week. “They did not like the price. That was it.” The company has been trying to sell its Houston and area holdings after years of rolling openings and closures in response to overall market pressure and high operations costs at the mill. …There was hope in the spring of 2023 when… but that hope was quashed in the spring of 2024 when the company announced it was shelving the prospect of a new mill. It then began looking for a buyer for the mill and tenure.
Raw logs were being loaded for export at the shuttered Crofton pulp mill – just weeks after hundreds of local workers were laid off over a lack of wood fibre, and as about 120 sidelined Chemainus sawmill employees brace for their EI benefits to run dry. “I don’t want a handout, I want a job,” said Brian Bull, who was laid off from Western Forest Products’ Chemainus sawmill. …North Cowichan’s mayor says repeated appeals to federal officials to grant workers the additional 20 weeks of EI benefits promised by the Prime Minister in the summer of 2025 have gone unanswered. “There’s about 120 workers impacted at the Chemainus sawmill. The majority are set to lose their EI benefits next month. …So laid-off Chemainus sawmill workers are urging the provincial government to stop raw log exports. Elzinga said he fears their the Chemainus sawmill may never re-open, due a lack of fibre supply.
New Brunswick royalty revenues have plummeted by $45 million. It’s a figure that has forestry royalties on track to come in at an historic low in the current fiscal year. And it was a decision to significantly cut royalty rates made quietly by the Holt government last July that’s behind it. That’s as the government suggests it’s a move that’s successfully sheltered the industry from curtailments and closures that are being felt across the country. …The province moved to overhaul timber royalty rates in 2022 after acknowledging its former policy of charging forestry companies a flat rate for wood cut in public forests had failed to take advantage of a two-year explosion in international lumber prices. A new system created under the former Higgs government allowed for rates to rise and fall with the prices of various wood-based commodities. “As forest product markets improve in the future, royalty rates will index upwards,” Herron said.
The decision by the US Supreme Court to invalidate many of President Trump’s tariffs has been met with mixed reactions in Quebec, as the steel, aluminum and lumber sectors remain subject to US tariffs. Economy Minister Jean Boulet said, “its effects for Quebec seem limited,” noting that Quebec exports in accordance with CUSMA were already exempt. “American tariffs on lumber and other key sectors remain in place,” Boulet stressed. …Stakeholders from Quebec’s economic and union sectors pointed out that Friday’s ruling is far from putting an end to the trade war with our southern neighbors. …“While this decision is great news for free trade, its impact on Canada remains limited and we are not out of the woods yet,” said senior public policy analyst Gabriel Giguère in a statement. Moreover, the review of the USMCA planned for this year still looms over Canada-US relations.
The escalating crisis in the Middle East could extend transport times for Finnish forest industry products to Asia by several weeks. At the same time, freight costs may rise, and container availability could become increasingly uncertain. Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to international reporting, several major shipping lines have also paused or reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, redirecting vessels around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope on routes to Asia. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global oil trade, and disruptions there primarily push up energy prices. For Finland’s forest industry, however, access through the Suez Canal is more directly decisive. Approximately 20 percent of the forest industry’s exports go to Asia, and the majority of those shipments pass through the Suez Canal, says Maarit Lindström, Director and Chief Economist at Metsäteollisuus ry. 
The US Department of Commerce preliminarily determined that hardwood and decorative plywood from China was sold in the US at less than fair value during the period Oct. 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025, and it also made a preliminary affirmative determination of critical circumstances. Starting March 2, 2026, the publication date of the Commerce Department notice in the Federal Register, US Customs and Border Protection will begin suspending liquidation and collecting cash deposits on covered entries at the applicable rates. The notice sets an estimated weighted-average dumping margin of 187.27% for the China-wide entity and an adjusted cash-deposit rate of 185.96% for the listed producer-exporter combinations as well as for the China-wide entity. …Commerce said it plans to issue its final determination by May 10, 2026, within 75 days of the preliminary decision’s Feb. 24 signature date, after which the US International Trade Commission will decide whether the U.S. industry was materially injured by the imports.
The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST on Tuesday, more than three days after the US Supreme Court declared the duties illegal. The agency said in a message to shippers on its Cargo Systems Messaging Service that it will de-activate all tariff codes associated with US President Trump’s prior IEEPA-related orders as of Tuesday. The IEEPA tariff collection halt coincides with Trump’s imposition of a new, 15% global tariff under a different legal authority to replace the ones struck down by the Supreme Court on Friday. CBP gave no reason why it was continuing to collect the tariffs days after the Supreme Court’s ruling. The message noted that the collection halt does not affect other tariffs imposed by Trump under the Section 232 national security statute and the Section 301 unfair trade practices statute.
It took only a few hours after the 
VANCOUVER, Washington — Canadian-owned Western Forest Products plans to expand its Fruit Valley manufacturing operation, according to pre-planning documents submitted to the city of Vancouver. Plans show the company expects to build up to three prefabricated steel buildings and an office building, as well as demolish its existing Fruit Valley lumber drying kilns and storage buildings. “We are supporting a modest expansion of our product and service portfolio,” Babita Khunkhun, the company’s senior director of communications, said. Khunkhun said planning for the expansion will continue throughout the year. The company intends to invest in new machinery at its Fruit Valley manufacturing site and make ready-to-install fabricated glulam beams, she said. The Fruit Valley operation is currently used for secondary lumber manufacturing. …A summer blaze left the company’s Columbia Vista sawmill beyond repair according to a state layoff notification from July. The company has decided to sell that site.
NEOPIT, Wisconsin — A Neopit wood mill is closed Tuesday after it experienced an early morning fire. Menominee Tribal Enterprises says it lost its stacker building and associated equipment. Some lumber inventory was damaged in the fire as well. All employees are safe and no injuries were reported. Production operations are closed for the day as the organization assesses the damage and begins determining the next steps for recovery and continuity of operations. The Menominee Tribal Enterprises store and main office remain open and are operating during regular business hours.
MOSINEE, Wisconsin — About 200 employees at the Mosinee paper mill were told before their shifts this week that their jobs are at risk as Ahlstrom moves forward with a phased shutdown of key operations at the plant. Several employees, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Wausau Pilot late Wednesday that management told workers Paper Machine No. 2 will shut down June 30, with Paper Machine No. 3 and the pulp mill slated to close Sept. 30. …In the letter to suppliers, Ahlstrom said it plans to permanently close the pulp mill and idle the M2 and M3 paper machines as part of a restructuring of operations at the Mosinee facility. The company cited rising costs and limited automation at those operations as reasons for the decision. …Ahlstrom said Paper Machines No. 1 and No. 4 will continue operating at the Mosinee mill. The company also said it plans to invest in modern technologies at those remaining machines.
Statistics Canada says the economy capped off a volatile year with a contraction in the final quarter of 2025. The agency said that real gross domestic product declined 0.6% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, falling short of expectations from the Bank of Canada and most economists for flat growth. Real GDP per capita was unchanged in the fourth quarter. StatCan said the main reason for the contraction was businesses drawing down their inventories. The economy swung back and forth between gains and losses every quarter last year as sharp changes in exports tied to US tariffs drove volatility in GDP data. …The agency said real GDP rose 1.7% in 2025 overall, cooling from 2% growth in each of the previous two years and marking the slowest pace of annual growth since 2016 outside the COVID-19 pandemic. “Lower exports, particularly to the United States, were the main contributor to the slower rise in GDP in 2025”.
Lumber futures fell toward $550 per thousand board feet, marking a six-week low, as a stagnant North American housing sector failed to absorb heavy seasonal inventories. Demand weakened as January data showed a 7% year over year drop in single family starts and an 8.4% decline in units under construction. High 6.25% mortgage rates and a 5.8% slump in Canadian home sales during January 2026 further stalled new project starts. On the supply side, regional inventory remained bloated. While BC curtailments continued harsh winter storms in the US South halted jobsite activity more than mill output, creating a distributor logjam and forcing aggressive dealer discounting to clear yard space. Additionally, while Trump’s administration 45% softwood duties were meant to buoy prices they instead stifled demand by adding nearly $17,500 to average home costs. This eroded the builder confidence needed to clear current supply.
The strong momentum and bull run of basic materials carried over into 2026 and appears poised to be the TSX’s top-performing sector for the second consecutive year. While mining heavyweights continue to lead the surge, lumber stocks are delivering market-beating returns. Stella-Jones, Canfor Corporation, and Doman Building Materials are worth watching right now. These companies offer operational leverage and have maintained resilience amid persistent price volatility and trade restrictions.
US equities tumbled on Tuesday, undoing a Monday equity comeback, as oil prices spiked again and traders began to worry the U.S.-Iran conflict could drag on longer than anticipated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,238 points, or 2.5%. If that holds, it would mark the blue-chip index’s first 1,000-point decline since April 10, 2025. The S&P 500 slipped 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.3%. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, topped $84 a barrel, up 8% Tuesday following a 6% spike Monday. WTI crude jumped 8% to above $77 a barrel after a 6% jump as well on Monday. Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander said the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most vital transit route for crude oil — is closed and that Iran would set ablaze ships attempting the route, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media.
After falling below 6%, matching their lowest level in several years, mortgage rates reversed course Monday, hitting their highest point in two weeks. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan rose 13 basis points to 6.12%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It had fallen to a recent low of 5.99% on Feb. 23 and pretty much sat there all week. The drop was welcome news as the all-important spring housing market gets underway. Potential buyers have been sidelined by high home prices and concerns over the broader economy. Mortgage rates crossing into the 5% range broke an emotional barrier for some, suggesting buyers might jump at the opportunity. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which rose back above 4% on Monday. The growing conflict with Iran caused a spike in oil prices, raising inflation worries and pushing yields higher.
US labor productivity in construction falls 30% from 1970 to 2024, while aggregate US labor productivity more than doubles over the same period, widening a long-running gap between construction and the wider economy. Since 1965, construction labor productivity falls by an average 0.6% per year, while economy-wide productivity grows about 1.6% per year, based on analysis by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The analysis links part of the gap to limited innovation in construction equipment and processes after a period of faster adoption in the 1950s and 1960s. The share of industrial machines in total construction production costs rises from 4% in 1948 to 12% in 1968, then slips to 10% in the 1970s and stays near that level, while pre-fabrication’s share of new residential housing units falls from about one-third at its peak in 1960–1970 to 5%.
Contractors in certain niches can expect some meaningful materials price reductions after the Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump’s tariffs Friday. The court rejected Trump’s claim to authority to impose reciprocal tariffs. That would drive “a modest but meaningful reduction in materials price escalation” for specialty equipment, HVAC and electrical systems and fixtures, said Anirban Basu, chief economist at Associated Builders and Contractors. …But the administration quickly signaled plans for alternative tariff methods shortly after the ruling. AGC also noted other materials-specific tariffs on lumber, steel, aluminum and copper products are unaffected by Friday’s decision. Taken together, that means the Supreme Court decision “could be short-lived and completely counteracted,” said Basu. That back-and-forth tends to stall construction activity as owners and contractors weigh whether the decision will hold. …AGC has told builders not to hold their breath waiting for refund checks.
Real estate professionals active in the Los Angeles market are bracing themselves for another wave of tariff-induced uncertainty following the US Supreme Court’s ruling. …Despite the Feb. 20 ruling, President Donald Trump has been adamant that he will find other avenues to impose his tariffs. Trump’s tariff policies have already caused upheaval for local businesses, and now the country’s heightened situation with tariffs will further disrupt L.A.’s real estate market, according to experts across development, manufacturing and finance. “This is a very shifting landscape for American companies,” said Ken Calligar, founder of RSG 3•D. …Garret Weyand, at Cedar Street Partners, said, “If costs are too high because of these tariffs, then projects don’t get built.” Banks will likely make borrowers increase the amount of equity so that the bank is covered in the event tariffs and inflation raise project costs.
Japan’s housing starts fell 0.4% yoy in January 2026, easing from a 1.3% drop in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 1.6% decline. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, though the pace was the mildest since July 2024. Rental housing starts declined at a slower rate (-1.5% vs -3.4% in December). Meanwhile, owner-occupied homes rebounded (6.6% vs -1.8%), as did prefabricated housing (5.1% vs -6.1%). Starts for two-by-four homes also accelerated (8.7% vs 2.8%). In contrast, built-for-sale housing fell 4.8%, reversing a 1.9% increase in December.
Since International Paper closed its mills in Liberty and Chatham counties last fall, business owners in Southeast Georgia who once made the state the largest timber exporter in the nation have been feeling acute pain. As of January, demand for timber had dropped more than 60%. …The cost of pulpwood, meanwhile, had plummeted. …Gov. Brian Kemp has carved $14 million for the timber industry in his draft budget, based on recommendations from a 
The mass timber supply chain has spent more than a decade proving the product works. …Now, research produced by Michigan State University argues that none of it matters much if the system surrounding the product isn’t built to match. Led by George Berghorn, Modular Mass Timber for Housing Construction, research published in the 
How the hell did we end up in this situation? It’s a question that everyone involved in BC’s wood products business has asked themselves during the last few years. The question doesn’t have a simple answer. Instead, there are several contributing factors that have steered the forest industry into its current mess. But two problems are of critical importance now: securing reliable fibre access and dealing calmly with the international uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s lust for world trade dominance and military supremacy. But the BC forest industry has deep roots and some of the issues which began long ago have now come home to roost. All at the same time. They’ve created a confluence of concerns. That’s evident in the silent sawmills, the scattering of a skilled workforce—and communities in crisis throughout the BC interior.
The forest industry and related associations, unions and community leaders have now coalesced behind the banner “forestry is a solution.” Their purpose, they say, is “to address the urgent challenges, from building affordable housing to reducing wildfire risks in our backyards” and to “rally British Columbians to support forestry workers and their families.” They will roll out the old dogma that BC practices the most sustainable forestry in the world. …The real purpose, I suspect, is that the coalition wants to continue the old model of intensive industrial forestry, despite the reality that our forests can no longer support this outdated model. In 2003, in an address at UBC, Pedersen, the chief forester of the day, stated that the forest industries’ plan was to harvest BC’s primary forests as quickly as possible and convert them into densely planted managed forests. Today, they have achieved that vision.
ARIZONA — The Forest Service budget to thin the forest is down. But hey, at least there’s a budget. That is the bad news/good news gist of a report on the 4-Forests Restoration Initiative (4-FRI) delivered last week at the Natural Resources Working Group meeting. Fortunately, the state Forestry Department is also continuing to fund thinning projects, including creating buffer zones around forested communities like Payson. However, time may be running out to restore the overgrown, drought-plagued forest. The meeting also featured a report documenting the worsening condition of the forest as thinning efforts falter. Jon Orona, with Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management, reported that 2025 was the fifth-driest year ever recorded – with average temperatures between 6 and 12 degrees above normal.
ARIZONA — A coalition of local governments, timber industry representatives and environmental groups plans to tell congressional leaders and US Forest Service officials this week that Northern Arizona’s forests — and the timber industry that depends on them — face collapse without construction of a second, 30-megawatt biomass-burning power plant. The group will carry that message to Washington, DC, arguing that a “biomass bottleneck” threatens forest restoration efforts, watersheds and rural communities. Two concurring reports outline the concern: one issued by the Eastern Arizona Counties Organization and the Natural Resources Working Group in the White Mountains, and another from the Greater Flagstaff Forest Partnership (GFFP) and the Forest Biomass Coalition Working Group. …The report concludes that, while private industry may eventually develop products such as fiberboard or biochar from forest byproducts, only a second biomass-burning plant near Flagstaff or Winslow offers a proven, near-term solution.
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas — The Arkansas Department of Agriculture announced some of its forestry personnel will go to Oklahoma and Tennessee to help with wildfire suppression and winter storm response. Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders authorized state forestry personnel to support wildfire suppression in Oklahoma and urban tree recovery in Tennessee. …Six wildland firefighters will go to Oklahoma for around two weeks. These firefighters will focus on attacking and suppressing new wildfires to prevent further spread. The Department is also sending four bulldozers and two pick-up trucks to help. Three urban forestry personnel will go to Tennessee to join an Urban Forest Strike Team, a specialized group of certified arborists, foresters, and urban forestry experts. Arkansas forestry personnel will help the UFST with tree damage and risk assessments, hazard mitigation planning, and technical expertise and training.
Drax Group is launching a strategic review of its Canadian pellet operations due to a constrained fiber market and low margins. …CEO Will Gardiner discussed the company’s changing pellet production strategy. …“Our US business is fundamentally part of our UK supply chain. That business is doing very well As you will have seen, our Canadian business is more challenged, and we’ve been talking about this for some time as margins have come down due to fiber costs rising in Canada more rapidly than indexed power prices in Asia. As we noted last year, this dynamic contributed to the decision we’ve made to close one of our pellet plants in Williams Lake towards the end of last year.” As a result, Drax is not currently expecting to commit any additional capital to the pellet production segment, including the paused pellet plant planned for development in Longview, Washington.
COWICHAN BAY, BC — Simon Fraser University researchers have uncovered concerning fibreglass contamination in a key estuary on Vancouver Island, raising concerns about how an as-yet overlooked contaminant could affect aquatic birds, marine life and coastal communities that rely on shellfish and seafood. A 
Wildfires have increased in frequency and severity over the past few decades. More fires are burning at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and other buildings meet the natural landscape—but our understanding of emissions from structure fires is still growing. New research led by the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences shows that common synthetic materials used in homes, like plastics and insulation, can release harmful compounds into the air when they burn. But synthetic materials make up only a small fraction of a home. Timber and wood panels make up the majority of the materials used, and the burning emissions from those are not so different from a vegetation fire. The work, 