Blog Archives

Special Feature

Lumber demand sees modest seasonal uplift but first-quarter 2025 could be the high-water mark

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
May 5, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

In mid-April, the Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies (JCHS) released its Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity update, forecasting R&R growth ~+1.6% per quarter between now and Q1/26. This projected growth comes after a modest pullback in R&R spending in 2024 and will be welcomed by North American solid-wood producers given expected declines in demand from new residential construction in the coming quarters. …Recent pricing trends persisted in North American lumber markets over the past month, with S-P-F prices continuing lower while SYP prices moved higher. …A modest seasonal uptick in demand from treaters appears to be one of the catalysts creating SYP price improvement, while the pause on tariffs—the threat of which had previously boosted S-P-F prices—has now precipitated a drop in S-P-F lumber pricing.

As we’ve highlighted exhaustively over the past several months, duties on Canadian lumber exports to the US are scheduled to more than double later this year, and there is still potential for incremental lumber tariffs following a Section 232 investigation (there is the potential for tariffs to extend to panels, etc., but even producers don’t have any clarity). Barring an unlikely spike in lumber demand, many Canadian sawmills are likely to discover that the economics of selling lumber into the US no longer work (unless prices move substantially higher—but that will be driven by closures in Canada). …For Canadian producers, do alternative markets exist, or could a surge in Canadian homebuilding replace some of the lost volumes to the US? In short, there are no easily accessible markets that come close to the size of the US and that can be supplied by Canadian mills.

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Business & Politics

Alabama Republicans are asking Commerce to set tariff rates on lumber to 60%

By Ari Hawkins
PoliticoPro
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States, International

Alabama Republicans are asking the Trump administration to set the duty rate on timber and lumber products to at least 60 percent, as it pursues a Section 232 investigation, according to a letter first obtained by Morning Trade. “In recent years, our $12 billion domestic cabinet industry has been devastated by unfairly traded imports of kitchen cabinets and cabinet components,” wrote Sens. Katie Britt and Tommy Tuberville, as well as Reps. Barry Moore, Gary Palmer, Mike Rogers, Dale Strong and Robert Aderholt in a note sent Thursday to Lutnick and Undersecretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Jeffrey Kessler. The Alabama Republicans note that the U.S. kitchen cabinet industry supports 250,000 jobs around the country and 5,000 in Alabama, and warn some U.S. manufacturers are operating at as low as 30 percent capacity. [to access the full story a PoliticoPro subscription is required]

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Trump’s tariffs on Canada may stay, but stronger ties possible: US envoy

By Sean Boynton
Global News
May 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump’s tariffs on Canada may not be “totally removed” under a future trade agreement, the US ambassador says, but the two countries are on the path toward a stronger relationship. Pete Hoekstra, who serves as Trump’s envoy to Canada, says there are opportunities to secure new economic and security partnerships on the foundation set by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House last week. …“We had a few rough months and those types of things. But we have strong economic ties, we have strong national security ties, we have personal ties. … There is so much to this foundation. …However, Hoekstra said Canada should expect some level of tariffs on its exports under a new trade deal, even a rate lower than the ones it currently faces. He pointed to the new framework with the United Kingdom announced last week.

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BC premier says softwood lumber accord could build ‘momentum’ for US trade deals

By Wolfgang Depner
The Canadian Press the Times Colonist
May 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

VICTORIA — Resolving the softwood lumber dispute could create “momentum” for a larger trade agreement between Canada and the US, Premier David Eby says. Eby said that he and several other premiers pressed that point during a virtual meeting with Prime Minister Carney after his visit with President Trump. He said softwood lumber could present an opportunity to “lead the way in terms of opening the door to meaningful discussions that benefit both Americans with cheaper building materials … as well as growth in our economy.” The premier said it doesn’t matter if Canada and the United States resolves the softwood lumber dispute before dealing with the overall trade and tariff issue….Council of Forest Industries chief economist Kurt Niquidet said he agrees. “I think Premier Eby has been doing a good job to raise the profile of softwood lumber,” Niquidet said. “It’s not just a BC  issue, it’s a national issue.”

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Canada’s Carney becomes the latest foreign leader to get the Trump treatment in the Oval Office

By Chris Megerian
The Associated Press
May 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

A meeting between the leaders of Canada and the US is not usually considered a high-stakes showdown, but here was newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney making his first visit to the Oval Office to see President Donald Trump, who has spent months musing about turning America’s northern neighbor into the 51st state. …The interaction offered a glimpse into how Trump has transformed Oval Office meetings from brief and bland encounters into precarious affairs. …His approach can be thrilling for supporters and destabilizing for diplomats accustomed to a more deliberative approach to international relations. … It appears that Carney struck the right balance, at least in Trump’s mind. An invitation to the Oval Office has long been the height of international prestige. …Now, they’re raucous episodes in a foreign policy reality show, starring Trump. While the president can be a gracious host, he openly complains about visitors’ countries.

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Port Alberni sees fresh investment amid forest sector turmoil

By Ish Sharma
The Western Investor
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

PORT ALBERNI, BC — An ambitious project to redevelop Western Forest Products former Somass mill site on the Port Alberni waterfront is moving forward, infusing fresh hope in a city hit hard by the challenges dogging the coastal forest industry. …“Exciting times for the City of Port Alberni moving forward and getting to revision an old mill site,” said Mike Fox, chief administrative officer with Port Alberni. …The amenities are needed. …The need for new housing is likely to grow as new businesses bring jobs to replace those lost by troubles in the forest sector. San Group, once Port Alberni’s key employer, filed for creditor protection last November, but the Amix Group and Canadian Maritime Engineering Ltd. are looking to expand. …Amix Marine Services recently bought 45 acres from Western Forest Products Ltd. for $7.3 million for a new marine terminal and will make Port Alberni its home port.

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What the US-China Trade Agreement Means for Markets

By James Mackintosh
The Wall Street Journal
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

The temporary lifting of triple-digit trade levies between China and the US while trade talks get under way removes the threat of an immediate stagflationary hit to the economy. This is very good news. It goes much further than investors thought possible—the current deal reduces the extra tariffs on China to 30%, made up of the base of 10% that will be matched by China, plus a 20% duty meant to make China do more to combat fentanyl. But an even better reason for such a big bounce is that it looks like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now in control of trade policy. Put simply, the grown-ups are in the room. …Don’t get your hopes too high. Tariffs are unlikely to go back to pre-Trump levels. …Bessent is after deep reform of China’s economy. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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Dow set to soar after US dramatically lowers tariffs with China

By David Goldman
CNN Business
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

US stock futures surged after President Donald Trump’s top trade officials brokered a surprisingly dramatic de-escalation in trade tensions with China over the weekend, dropping tariffs to much lower levels, which some economists say could stave off a US recession. …Both sides agreed to axe tariffs by 115 percentage points, still leaving the levies considerably higher than where they were before Trump took office in January – but much, much lower than the historic level over the past month that deeply concerned American businesses, consumers, economists and investors. Bessent said the US and China had put in place a mechanism to avoid raising tariffs on each other again, suggesting that the worst of the trade war may be behind us. …Bessent said “The April 2 tariff level for China was 34%, so we have moved that down from 34% to 10%.”

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Feeding America’s insatiable appetite for lumber (NPR Podcast)

By Will Walkey and Meghna Chakrabarti
National Public Radio – Boston
May 8, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

The Trump administration wants to expand the American lumber industry by logging more trees in national forests and raising tariffs on lumber imports. The impact that could have on the domestic timber industry. NPR Boston hosted Ryan Dezember (Wall Street Journal), Scott Dane, (American Loggers Council), Jim Manke, (Manke Lumber Company), Troy Jackson, (logger and previous president of the Maine Senate), and Randi Spivak, (Center for Biological Diversity).

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Clarification of Timing on New US Duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber

By Paul Jannke, Principal, Lumber
FEA Forest Economic Advisors
May 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

In response to some confusion regarding the timing of the US Dept of Commerce’s (DOC) final determinations for the new Canadian softwood duties, FEA’s Paul Jannke offered a few clarifications. Canadian lumber duties (14.4%) are likely to jump to ~34.5%. A final decision is expected in early to mid-August, but duty hikes could occur as early as July 3. …Moreover, the DOC issued preliminary findings suggesting a combined duty increase of about 20% to 34.5%. It is important to note that this is a preliminary determination; the final rates will differ, but if history is a guide, it won’t be by much. …The DOC published its antidumping determination on March 5, followed by the CVD determination on April 9. By law, the final determinations are due within 120 days of these publications, unless the DOC extends their review by 60 days. …The most probable scenario involves the DOC aligning the timelines, placing the release of the final duty determinations in the early to mid-August timeframe. 

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West Fraser General Manager retires after 51 years

By Amber Lollar
The Henderson News
May 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

HENDERSON, Texas — Henderson’s West Fraser recently celebrated the long-deserved retirement of their General Manager, Raymond Mitchell, after 51 hard-working years with the still-growing company. The company threw a blow-out bash for Mitchell. Local officials, current and former employees, and West Fraser upper management gathered on the expanded facility to celebrate Mitchell and his many accomplishments throughout his time with the company. Mitchell started his decades long tenure in the lumber industry at the ripe age of 19. He has held the title of Mill Manager since 1999.

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International Paper to close two Texas facilities

By International Paper
PR Newswire
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

MEMPHIS, Tennessee — International Paper announced the consolidation of its operations in the Rio Grande Valley. …The company will make strategic investments to convert the current Edinburg, Texas sheet plant into a warehouse, invest in its current facility in McAllen, Tex. to increase capabilities and shift its current Reynosa, Mexico operations to a new, more modern and capable facility that is currently under construction in Reynosa. The company will close its box plant and sheet plant in Edinburg, Texas. “The decision to cease operations at our two Edinburg facilities while investing in McAllen and Reynosa allows us to focus our efforts,” said Tom Hamic, Executive VP and President of Packaging Solutions North America.

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Trump-supporting timber business owner struggles as tariffs disrupt trade

The Bastille Post
May 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

An American timber business owner who supports Donald Trump is grappling with unsold inventory and shrinking cash flow due to the ongoing trade war, as Washington’s punitive tariffs weigh heavily on his operations and push him to seek alternatives to the Chinese market. Brandon Arbogast, the owner of Valley Log Sales in Timberville, Virginia, has spent decades in the lumber industry, exporting premium Virginia timber, primarily to China. …Sitting on 120,000 to 130,000 U.S. dollars’ worth of unsold wood, Arbogast is contemplating selling some of his land to maintain cash flow. …As a self-identified Trump supporter, Arbogast is willing to endure the hardship, hoping that a resolution to the trade dispute will eventually bring relief. For now, his premium walnut logs, which are typically transformed into furniture, flooring, and kitchen cabinets, remain idle.

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Georgia Governor signs major hurricane relief package

The Tifton Gazette
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

FORSYTH, Georgia — Gov. Brian Kemp signed landmark legislation Thursday at the Georgia Forestry Association (GFA) headquarters delivering urgently needed relief to forest landowners and rural communities impacted by Hurricane Helene — a storm that caused more than $1.28 billion in timber losses across Georgia’s most productive forestlands. The legislation, passed with strong bipartisan support, delivers both immediate recovery tools and long-term support to ensure Georgia’s forestry sector can recover, replant, and remain a pillar of the state’s economy, the GFA said. …The package includes: — A refundable reforestation tax credit for planting and restoration efforts. — A state income tax exemption for federal disaster aid. — A sales tax exemption for certain farm rebuilding materials. — Ad valorem harvest tax relief for landowners in affected counties — paired with state reimbursements to protect local government budgets. These measures mirror the real-world needs voiced by landowners, loggers, and mills.

Related news by Associated Press: Federal officials set timeline for Helene aid to farmers

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Beltrami County approves $137M upgrade plan for West Fraser lumber mill

Beltrami County, Minnesota
Citizen Portal
May 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

MINNESOTA — The Beltrami County Work Session held on May 6, 2025… featured discussions on a proposed $137 million investment to upgrade the West Fraser facility, which is crucial for both the mill’s future and the local economy.Jeremy Buck from West Fraser presented plans to modernize the mill, which has been operational since 1981 and still uses much of its original equipment. The proposed renovations aim to enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impact, with the potential to preserve approximately 32 direct jobs and support an estimated 500 indirect jobs in the community. The company has applied for assistance from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) through the Job Creation Fund, which requires a resolution of support from the county. …The next steps will involve further discussions on the budget and the resolution to support West Fraser’s investment.

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UPM Plywood and the Industrial Union signed a new collective labor agreement, strikes at the mills in Finland are ending

UPM Plywood
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

UPM Plywood and the Industrial Union have today signed the new collective labor agreement for UPM Plywood mills in Finland. The strikes at the mills are ending and work will start immediately. “We are pleased to have reached an agreement and to be able to start the work in our mill operations. We managed to find a solution that secures the purchasing power of our employees and supports the future success of UPM Plywood mills,” says Juhani Tenhunen, Vice President, Operations at UPM Plywood. The new company specific collective agreement is set to take effect today and is valid until the end of 2027. The dispute centered on wage increases, which had delayed a resolution despite most other agreement terms being settled in August 2024. …Production at the company’s Otepää mill in Estonia remained unaffected during the strike.

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Finance & Economics

Lumber prices continue to drop with wood market cautious amid tariff uncertainty

By Joe Pruski
RISI Fastmarkets
May 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The downward price slide of recent weeks was unabated across most framing lumber species. Uncertainty surrounding the economy and potential new developments in US trade policy contributed to a cautious market tone. Many traders lamented that they anticipated at least a modest decline in mortgage interest rates by now that has not materialized. With discounts cutting deeper across most species, the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price tumbled $14. That’s the composite’s first double-digit drop since April 2024. Downward price pressure intensified across the South. …Competitively priced Western S-P-F crept deeper into traditional Southern Pine markets, especially lower grades, which contributed to the downward price pressure on SYP. …Lumber futures settled sharply higher on Thursday after a prolonged downward trend.

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How major global and economic sectors are reacting to US tariff policy

Window + Door – National Glass Association
May 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

The effects have been felt by building industries in terms of increased costs, disrupted supply chains and economic uncertainty. Last week’s webinar, “Trump’s Tariffs: Transition or Turmoil?… focused on the near-term effects of tariffs, how trade environments have shifted in response, and what the next steps of the Trump Administration might be. …Ari Hawkins, a Politico trade reporter, agreed that the administration is likely looking to the USMCA renegotiations to “really get into the weeds of a lot of these tariff disputes” with Canada. …Hawkins says that further Section 232 investigations could lead to new tariffs in the coming months on a range of products, including semiconductors, lumber and critical minerals. While the administration might make exemptions on materials like lumber before those investigations are completed, Hawkins says, they are still likely to face the Section 232 tariffs as part of the administration’s focus on incentivizing manufacturing and development within the US.

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Sawmill Execs: Wild Wood Prices Ahead

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
May 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Executives at two of North America’s lumber producers said they are bracing for volatile wood prices this building season before sharply higher US duties on Canadian lumber kick in. Despite President Trump’s threats, his April 2 tariff barrage didn’t hit Canadian lumber. Nonetheless, duties related to a long-running trade dispute are set to more than double later this year. Canfor and Interfor are not sure there won’t also be additional levies tied to Trump’s March 1 order for an investigation into the national security threat of imported wood. …Canfor’s Susan Yurkovich said “Either people won’t be able to access their products and there’ll be a slowdown… or there will be a price response, which also, of course, will have an impact on affordability.” …Interfor’s Bart Bender said he expects volatile pricing this spring and summer while sawmills figure out what sort of increases buyers will bear. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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Interfor Corporation reports Q1, 2025 net loss of $35 million

Interfor Corporation
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Interfor recorded a Net loss in Q1’25 of $35.1 million compared to a Net loss of $49.9 million and a Net loss of $72.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $48.6 million on sales of $735.5 million in Q1’25. …Notable items include: Lumber prices increased during Q1’25 as reflected in Interfor’s average selling price of $712 per mfbm, up $53 per mfbm versus Q4’24; lumber shipments totalled 863 million board feet, representing a 77 million board foot decrease over the prior quarter. The decrease primarily relates to the sale of the Quebec operations, weather-related curtailments and shipment delays resulting from tariff uncertainty. …The Company is well positioned with a diversified product mix…only about 24% of the Company’s total lumber production is exported from Canada to the US and exposed to a potential tariff. …Interfor expects that over the mid-term, lumber markets will continue to benefit from favourable underlying supply and demand fundamentals.

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Canfor Corporation reports Q1, 2025 operating loss of $29 million

Canfor Corporation
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, International

VANCOUVER — Canfor Corporation reported its Q1, 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $28.5 million for the first quarter of 2025, compared to an operating loss of $45.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. …These results largely reflected improved lumber segment results and, to a lesser extent, the pulp and paper segment. Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich said, “While improved lumber benchmark prices provided some relief, rising global economic and trade uncertainty, and US lumber duties, create a challenging backdrop. Through our diversified operating platform in Canada, the US South and Europe, we are positioned to mitigate these challenges, while remaining focused on what we can control. …“For our pulp business” Yurkovich added, “this was another solid quarter with improved results and a strong operational performance. However, global economic uncertainty is also putting pressure on global softwood pulp markets in the near term.”

Related coverage: Canfor Pulp reported Q1, 2025 operating income of $11 million

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Trump talks tough on Canada — while importing more cars, lumber, and oil

By Catherine Baab
The Quartz Daily Brief
May 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Fresh trade data shows deepening US reliance on Canadian goods, even as the president claims the opposite. …According to the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US goods trade deficit with Canada widened to $4.9 billion in March, up sharply from prior months. The surge was driven by higher imports of Canadian-made cars, crude oil, and finished wood products — the exact categories Trump dismissed. Automotive imports rose by $2.6 billion, including a $2.1 billion spike in passenger vehicles, many of which are assembled in Canada. Oil and lumber purchases also increased, contributing to a 14% month-over-month jump in the broader US trade deficit, which hit a new monthly high of $140.5 billion in March. …The US typically runs a services surplus with Canada, and American firms rely heavily on Canadian supply chains in autos, energy, and materials, as the fresh BEA data suggests.

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Conifex Timber reports Q1, 2025 net income of $0.6 million

By Conifex Timber Inc.
GlobeNewswire
May 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER, BC — Conifex Timber reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. EBITDA was $4.9 million for the quarter compared to EBITDA of negative $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and negative $0.5 million in the first quarter of 2024. Net income was $0.6 million for the quarter versus net loss of $7.8 million in the previous quarter and negative $4.5 million in the first quarter of 2024. …lumber production in the first quarter of 2025 totalled approximately 46.3 million board feet, representing operating rates of approximately 77% of annualized capacity. …Power Plant sold 47.6 GWh of electricity under our EPA with BC Hydro in the first quarter of 2025 representing approximately 88% of targeted operating rates. 

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Taiga Building Products reports Q1, 2025 net earnings of $9.8 million

By Taiga Building Products Ltd.
Cision Newswire
May 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

BURNABY, BC – Taiga Building Products reported its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024. …The Company’s consolidated net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 were $400.0 million compared to $393.6 million over the same period last year. The slight increase in sales by $6.3 million or 2% was largely due to a higher average pricing as well as product mix.  Net earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 decreased to $9.8 million from $12.8 million over the same period last year primarily due to decreased gross margin. EBITDA for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 was $16.7 million compared to $19.8 million for the same period last year.

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Cascades reports Q1, 2025 operating income of $50 million

By Cascades Inc.
Cision Newswire
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

KINGSEY FALLS, Quebec — Cascades reports its unaudited financial results for the three-month period ended March 31, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $1,154 million (compared with $1,211 million in Q4 2024 and $1,109 million in Q1 2024); Operating income of $50 million (compared with $16 million in Q4 2024 and $9 million in Q1 2024); and Total capital expenditures, net of disposals, totaled $36 million in Q1 2025, compared to $29 million in Q4 2024 and $41 million in Q1 2024. Hugues Simon, CEO, commented: “Our first quarter performance was driven by lower volumes across our businesses as uncertainty regarding tariffs led to a deterioration in consumer and business sentiment beginning in mid-February, resulting in lower sales and profitability levels sequentially.

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Stella-Jones reports Q1, 2025 net income of $93 million

Stella-Jones Inc.
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

MONTREAL — Stella-Jones announced financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $773 million, relatively unchanged from Q1 2024; Operating income of $143 million, including insurance settlement of $38 million; EBITDA of $179 million, or 23.2% margin; Acquisition post-quarter of a steel transmission structure manufacturer, aligned with strategy to support North American infrastructure. …Eric Vachon, President and Chief Executive Officer of Stella-Jones said “Though macroeconomic headwinds continue to impact volume growth, at this stage we remain confident in our ability to achieve our financial objectives. …“The Company entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Locwel., a leading manufacturer of lattice towers and steel poles for electrical transmission. This transaction marks a step forward in Stella-Jones’ long-term vision, allowing us to enhance our infrastructure offering and establish a presence in the growing steel transmission structure industry.”

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US Multifamily Developer Confidence Falls in the First Quarter

The National Association of Home Builders
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing declined year-over-year in the first quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released by the NAHB. The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 44, down three points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 82, down one point year-over-year. …The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise and subsidized) and one in the built-for-sale (or condominium) market. The component measuring garden/low-rise dipped one point to 54, the component measuring mid/high-rise units fell eight points to 28, the component measuring subsidized units held even at 50 and the component measuring built-for-sale units posted a one-point decline to 38.

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China rolls out more stimulus and agrees to trade talks with the US as tariffs hit economy

By Ken Moritsugu and Elaine Kurtenbach
The Associated Press in the Canadian Press
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

BEIJING — China announced a barrage of measures meant to counter the blow to its economy from US President Donald Trump ’s trade war, as the two sides prepared for talks later this week. Beijing’s central bank governor and other top financial officials outlined plans Wednesday to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending. …Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, have begun to take a toll on its export-dependent economy at a time when it’s already under pressure from a prolonged downturn in the property sector. China has retaliated with tariff hikes of up to 125% on US goods and stopped buying most American farm products. Late Tuesday, China and the US announced plans for talks. …The agreement to talk comes at a time when both sides have remained adamant, at least in public, about not compromising on the tariffs.

Related news in CNN: US stocks open higher as US-UK trade deal announcement nears

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Uncertainty around tariffs triggers lumber volatility, slows growth

By Valerie Hansen, Chairman BuyMetrics
The LBM Journal
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Valerie Hansen

Threatened tariffs, announced tariffs, rescinded tariffs, pending negotiations, countervailing duties, a falling bond market, rising mortgage rates—the threats, drama, and uncertainty have not been good for the lumber and building materials (LBM) industry. The uncertainty has led to risks of a different kind: slowing growth and rising inflation. Fortunately, the industry scored a win in March when Canadian lumber and panel products were deemed US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement-compliant. Up next, the countervailing and anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber. …Yet to come, the Section 232 National Security Investigation. …As the industry braces for new tariffs, here’s what dealers can learn from the other extreme cycles of the 21st century —the 2006 boom cycle, 2009 bust cycle (Great Recession), and the 2021 COVID-19 cycle. …Risk management: To mitigate the risk of over-paying or experiencing a disruption in supply, expand your supply base. It pays to diversify.

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The Fed will likely hold interest rates steady as Trump’s tariffs spark uncertainty

By Scott Horsley
National Public Radio
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady later on Wednesday amid fears that President Trump’s tariffs will rekindle inflation and slow economic growth. The decision to keep the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate between 4.25% and 4.5% is widely expected by financial markets despite the president’s repeated demands for the Fed to lower interest rates. …Trade tensions have led to a sharp drop in consumer confidence. But they’ve yet to put much of a dent in the job market. …So long as tariffs threaten to put upward pressure on prices, the Fed will be inclined to keep interest rates relatively high, in an effort to prevent inflation from spiking again. That calculation could change, however, if the job market softens and unemployment starts to climb. Ordinarily, that would push the central bank toward lowering interest rates.

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US Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase, New Home Prices Drop

By Catherine Koh
NAHB Eye on Housing
May 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Mortgage loan applications saw little change in April, as refinancing activity decreased. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, experienced a 0.4% month-over month increase on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. However, year-over-year, the index is up 29.3% compared to April 2024. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 10 basis points in April, reaching 6.8%, according to the MBA survey. As rates edged higher, purchase activity posted a modest 1.9% month-over-month gain (SA), while the Refinance Index declined by 1.4% (SA). Compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are down 37 bps, and thus, purchase applications are higher by 11.2%, while refinance activity has jumped 62.0%.

In related news: US Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

Mass timber takes root in two Sudbury industrial builds

By Don Procter
Daily Commercial News
May 12, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada East

SUDBURY, Ontario — Structural steel has long been the material of choice for industrial buildings in Sudbury, but Bloomington Developments has stepped out of that comfort zone to build two industrial buildings in mass timber. The larger project is a 48,000-square-foot two-storey industrial/commercial building comprised of cross-laminated timber (CLT) that will be completed by the end of the year. …While the building will be clad in a Canadian-sourced insulated steel panel system, the interior will largely consist of exposed CLT. Danielson, says initially the Sudbury warehouse on Cambrian Heights Drive and a smaller CLT building in Herold Industrial Park were specified in steel but the pandemic struck causing steel prices to soar and supply to dwindle. “That prompted our search for alternatives,” Danielson says, noting “a cold call” to Montreal-based Nordic Structures led to collaboration with the architectural firm.

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House Republicans approve amendment authorizing the sale of federal lands to build housing

By Kirk Siegler
National Public Radio
May 7, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States

House Republicans have approved an amendment that authorizes the sale of thousands of acres of federal public land in Nevada and Utah; two states where the federal government owns most of the land that have long been at the forefront of a controversial movement to cede control of it to state or private entities. The House Natural Resources committee approved the amendment late Tuesday night after previously indicating federal land sales wouldn’t be included in a budget reconciliation bill. Most of the proposed land sales or exchanges appear to be aimed at building affordable housing on US Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management land outside Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada and in fast growing southwestern Utah around the tourist town of St. George, Utah. …Democrats and environmentalists say the amendment is part of a broader far right push for a wholesale transfer of federal public lands.

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Maryland is the sixth US state to pass extended producer responsibility legislation for paper and packaging

By Marissa Heffernan
Resource Recycling
May 7, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States, US East

MARYLAND — After five years of work and many interim steps, Maryland became the sixth US state to pass extended producer responsibility legislation for paper and packaging, continuing the policy’s evolution in the country. Sent to the governor on April 7, SB 901 would direct a producer responsibility organization to set goals for post-consumer recycled content, recyclability, recycling and reuse rates, source reduction, composting rates and contamination reduction. However, it also builds on newer elements, such as a phased-in approach to reimbursement, seen last year in Minnesota’s law. …The American Forest and Paper Association has called the bill “misguided.” “EPR programs are helpful for materials that don’t have strong end markets or aren’t highly recycled,” the association wrote. “Paper is a highly recycled material with strong end markets.” …Any EPR program must fully and fairly credit our early and voluntary actions to increase recycling in Maryland and across the country.”

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Forestry

How the EU deforestation law aggravates the trade dispute with the United States

The Financial Times in Bytes Europe
May 8, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, International

The EU has made little headway and an attempt to appease the US by delaying controversial import controls has fallen flat. The US forestry industry has accused the EU of erecting trade barriers by favouring its own industry under amended deforestation rules. The EU’s deforestation law, which will ban the import of products from sectors including rubber, cocoa, wood and paper if they come from deforested land, should have come into force last year. Under pressure from the bloc’s trading partners it was delayed until the end of the year. Despite this respite, the nine biggest US forest product organisations accused the EU of setting “severe” compliance challenges, opening a new front in the growing transatlantic trade conflict. The EU has categorised the US — and all its own members — as “low risk”. Heidi Brock, head of AF&PA, said the law amounted to a “non-trade tariff barrier” for US paper and wood products.

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Washington state forests are too complex for ‘cut or don’t cut’ thinking

By Scott Freeman, Jefferson Timber Cooperative
The Seattle Times
May 7, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

SEATTLE — Recent controversy over the management of Washington’s older state-owned forests has been dominated by an either/or framework: Either we clear-cut these tracts or prevent any harvest at all. Cut it all now or don’t cut any, ever? The human brain loves to dichotomize, but this type of either/or thinking doesn’t work in the woods. Ecologically, economically and culturally, our forests are too complex. Ecologically, climate change is altering our forests rapidly and radically. …Economically, rural areas in Washington state are a microcosm of a pattern that is global in scope. …Cultural values need to be considered as well. …We have to implement a broad array of management models and tools. Instead of re-fighting the 1980s War in the Woods and practicing lawsuit-driven forestry, we need to create flexible, forward-looking practices that will support the health of our forests and rural communities in a time of rapid change.

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

Trump agenda fuels calls to move annual Climate Week from New York to Montreal

By Darius Snieckus
The National Observer
May 8, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada, United States

US President Donald Trump’s anti-environment and protectionist agenda could chase one of the world’s biggest climate events north to Canada. Discussion is growing in global climate circles around moving Climate Week NYC from its historic home in New York City to Montreal, as concerns mount about the chilling effect the US government could have on engagement with international delegates. Catherine McKenna, a former Canadian environment and climate change minister said that the idea had been sparked by “climate advocates/experts who don’t want to go to the US because of border concerns — and general clampdown on discussing climate in the US.” …McKenna said “A lot of people have reached out. The reality is it’s not going to happen this September” when the event is currently scheduled. “But in a year’s time, it could be very different,” she said.

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US stops tracking costs of extreme weather disasters fueled by climate change

By Mary Katherine Wildeman
Public Broadcasting Service
May 8, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: United States

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will no longer track the cost of climate change-fueled weather disasters, including floods, heat waves, wildfires and more. It is the latest example of changes to the agency and the Trump administration limiting federal government resources on climate change. NOAA falls under the US Department of Commerce and is tasked with daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring. It is also parent to the National Weather Service. The agency said its National Centers for Environmental Information would no longer update its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database beyond 2024. For decades, it has tracked hundreds of major events across the country, including destructive hurricanes, hail storms, droughts and freezes that have totaled trillions of dollars in damage. The database uniquely pulls information from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s assistance data, insurance organizations, state agencies and more to estimate overall losses from individual disasters. 

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Health & Safety

Climate-fueled wildfires contributed to thousands of US deaths over 15 years, study says, with highest in Oregon and California

By Dorany Pineda
The Associated Press in Oregon Public Broadcasting
May 7, 2025
Category: Health & Safety
Region: United States

Wildfires driven by climate change contribute to as many as thousands of annual deaths and billions of dollars in economic costs from wildfire smoke in the United States, according to a new study. The annual range of deaths was 130 to 5,100, the study showed, with the highest in states such as Oregon and California. The paper, published Friday in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment, found that from 2006 to 2020, climate change contributed to about 15,000 deaths from exposure to small particulate matter from wildfires and cost about $160 billion. …Nicholas Nassikas, a study author and a physician and professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School… and a multidisciplinary team of researchers wanted to know: “What does it really mean in a changing environment for things like mortality, which is kind of the worst possible health outcome?” The paper’s researchers focused on deaths linked to exposure to fine particulate matter, or PM2.5 — the main concern from wildfire smoke.

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Forest Fires

Quebec lends forest fire teams to battle blazes in Saskatchewan and Ontario

The Canadian Press in SaskNow.com
May 11, 2025
Category: Forest Fires
Region: Canada, Canada East

Quebec’s forest fire prevention agency says it is sending reinforcements to Ontario and Saskatchewan to help teams fight several forest and brush fires. Two CL-415 firefighting aircraft and their crews will head to Dryden, Ont., while two other of the same aircraft will head to Meadow Lake, Sask. Quebec’s forest fire prevention agency, known as SOPFEU, says the teams departed Sunday from Quebec City. The agency says the current situation in Quebec allows for resources to head to other provinces. In Ontario, there were six active fires burning across the province shortly before noon Sunday, including one in Haliburton, located about 170 km north of Oshawa, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources’ interactive map. The Saskatchewan Ministry of Public Safety map showed there were 18 active wildfires burning Sunday, for a total of 142 fires since the season began on April 1. There were 19 active fires burning in Saskatchewan on Saturday.

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