Kevin Mason
At the Global Wood Summit last week, Zoltan van Heyningen, Executive Director of the U.S. Lumber Coalition, shared the U.S. perspective on the softwood lumber file. Zoltan emphasized that duties are a legal process stemming from administration of U.S. trade law and are distinct from tariffs, which are policy driven trade action. As such, the imposition of duties on Canadian lumber imports is not a policy debate, it is a legal process. Functionally a “Trump tariff” could be in addition to duties. From the U.S. perspective, the softwood lumber trade case has been extremely effective. According to the Coalition, since the case was filed in 2016: Canadian mills have accounted for 74% of curtailments and 60% of mill closures by capacity… and U.S. operating rates are now consistently higher than in Canada, a deviation from historical norms. …In Washington, the softwood lumber case is seen as a poster child demonstrating the positive impact of trade law enforcement on domestic industry.
Our Take: Mr. van Heyningen was very clear regarding the disposition of duties that have been collected—the majority won’t be treated any differently than other duties collected by U.S. Customs and would be liquidated into the Treasury. Trade deals, such as the prior Softwood Lumber Agreement, are very rare, but the door remains open for a negotiated settlement. However, there has to be “something in it” for the U.S. Coalition (and its members). We suspect that 10 cents on the dollar will not suffice this time around as Canadians have a weaker hand this time if/when negotiations commence. …We do not foresee pricing remaining in this upward trend through year-end and into 2025, and a seasonal slowdown in demand after U.S. Thanksgiving should precipitate a pullback in pricing later this quarter. However, supply and demand are clearly better matched today than they have been at any point over the past couple of years.
The Montreal Longshoremen’s Union rejected a final offer made for a new labour contract, leading to a lockout being declared, the Maritime Employers Association (MEA) and the union said on Sunday. The MEA said the lockout will impact nearly 1,200 port workers at the Canadian port that handled 8.7 million metric tons in the third quarter of 2024. The lockout will further slow Canadian imports and exports at a time the Port of Montreal was already operating at partial capacity and as West Coast ports are stopped due to a separate dispute. The union representing longshoremen at the Port of Montreal said the offer was rejected by 99.7% of members because the employer refused to negotiate. Two terminals operated by Termont, representing about 40% of Montreal’s container traffic and 15% of total port volume, have been shut down since Oct. 31. However, after Sunday’s announcement all longshoring at the port will be locked out. 
In a way, the stock market’s vote of confidence was surprising: Trump’s economic platform is a mix bag. Tax relief and deregulation are popular with investors, but trade-disrupting tariffs and budget-busting deficits could push up interest rates down the road. For Canadians, however, the Trump bag is not so mixed: new economic threats from Trump’s America are clearly on their way. …A lower corporate income tax rate, deregulation and energy renewal will be magnets for investment from Canada. Tariff policy and a review of NAFTA 2.0 would be especially harmful as we would be shut out of U.S. markets. Given nationalistic economic leanings on both sides of the aisle in Congress, we should expect more not fewer trade restrictions in the next four years. What should we do? Two things. Create a new growth agenda and work hard to protect our access to the huge U.S. market. 
VANCOUVER — Talks are set to resume between the union representing more than 700 locked-out British Columbia port supervisors and their employers. A representative for the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 said they have been ordered back to the table with the BC Maritime Employers Association and federal mediators on Saturday at 5 p.m. and that Sunday and Monday have been set aside for talks to continue if necessary. …Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon had earlier Thursday criticized a lack of progress in talks to end the dispute, as well as a dockworkers strike at the Port of Montreal, saying there had been a “concerning lack of urgency.” …MacKinnon said he was “closely monitoring” bargaining in the disputes in B.C. and Montreal, which he described as “progressing at an insufficient pace.”
B.C. business leaders are bracing for the potential economic impacts of another Donald Trump presidency. Trump has promised to implement new tariffs of at least 10% on all American imports, an attempt to promote made-in-America goods and boost the U.S. manufacturing sector. That could hurt BC manufacturers and the province’s forestry sector, contracting already stagnant economic growth, says Laura Jones, of the Business Council of BC. Tariffs “are terrible for consumers,” Jones says. They could raise the price of certain products — including softwood lumber — for Americans, forcing them to look elsewhere. …David Frum believes Donald Trump could ‘mess up’ the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement and hold those countries ‘to ransom’. …A report released last month from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce found that a 10% tariff would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
In a significant development for the European plywood industry, the Greenwood Consortium has filed an anti-dumping complaint against Chinese hardwood plywood imports, citing low pricing as a threat to the EU’s plywood sector. This move has sparked an industry-wide debate, dividing opinions between those advocating for industry protection and those concerned about the potential impact on trade, imports, and European consumers. The Greenwood Consortium, a newly established coalition of nine European plywood producers, initially aimed to curb illegal imports of Russian birch plywood entering Europe via China. However, the scope of its campaign has since expanded to include all Chinese hardwood plywood, alleging that these imports are unfairly priced and harm the European industry. …In response, the Plywood Trade Interest Alliance… opposes a broad ban on Chinese plywood, arguing that such restrictions would harm the EU economy, compromise supply chain stability, and strain relations with China.
ALBERTA – Minister of Forestry and Parks Todd Loewen will be travelling to Japan with a delegation of forest companies on Nov. 8, in an effort to expand market opportunities for Alberta’s forestry products. Provincial officials say Japan is Alberta’s top market for wood pellet exports and the second-largest market for lumber and wood panels. This mission is expected to give Loewen an opportunity to support Alberta’s forestry product manufacturers as they grow sales, trade and investment. …From Nov. 8-15, Minister Loewen and the delegation, including the Alberta Forest Products Association, the Canada Wood Group and the Wood Pellet Association of Canada, will attend the Council of Forest Industries Tokyo office’s 50th Anniversary Wood Forum. While there, the delegation will visit the Canadian Ambassador and meet with Japanese trading partners, as well as current and potential investors.
Experts say Donald Trump’s election victory could shift interest rate policy in the U.S. as his promised policies risk higher inflation, which could ultimately have implications for Canadian rates and the loonie. Among those promises are large tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, as well as lower tax rates and lighter regulation. Trump has promised that “inflation will vanish completely.” But some have raised concern that his economic policies could actually put upward pressure on inflation, and in turn, slow the pace of interest rate cuts expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. …Higher inflation would mean the U.S. Federal Reserve could be slower to cut interest rates, and markets are already shifting their bets on how low the central bank is likely to go on rates. …That would make the Bank of Canada more hesitant about cutting rates too quickly,” said Sheila Block, an economist.
BURNABY, BC — Interfor Corporation recorded a Net loss in Q3’24 of $105.7 million compared to a Net loss of $75.8 million in Q2’24 and a Net loss of $42.4 million in Q3’23. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $22.0 million on sales of $692.7 million in Q3’24 versus a loss of $16.7 million on sales of $771.2 million in Q2’24 and Adjusted EBITDA of $31.9 million on sales of $828.1 million in Q3’23. …In Q3’24, lumber production totalled 904 million board feet, representing a 130 million board foot decrease over the prior quarter. This decrease reflects the temporary production curtailments announced on August 8, 2024. …On October 16, 2024, Interfor announced plans to exit its operations in Quebec, Canada, including the sale of its three manufacturing facilities and the closure of its Montreal corporate office. …The Company sold Coastal B.C. forest tenures totalling approximately 125,000 cubic metres of allowable annual cut.
VANCOUVER, BC — Conifex Timber reported results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. EBITDA was negative $3.9 million for the quarter compared to EBITDA of negative $7.1 million in the second quarter of 2024 and negative $6.7 million in the third quarter of 2023. Net loss was $3.8 million for the quarter versus net loss of $9.7 million in the previous quarter and negative $8.0 million for the year-earlier quarter. …Shipments of Conifex-produced lumber totaled 29.3 million board feet in the third quarter of 2024, representing a decrease of 24% from the 38.5 million board feet shipped in the previous quarter. …Looking ahead to the final quarter of 2024, our average mill net selling price through the first six weeks of the quarter was 17.5% higher.
MONTREAL, Quebec – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2024. Sales in the third quarter were $915 million, compared to sales of $949 million for the corresponding period last year. Excluding the positive effect of currency conversion, sales were down $44 million, or 5%. Net income for the third quarter was $80 million, compared to net income of $110 million in Q3, 2023. “Despite strong long-term demand tailwinds, we witnessed a slower pace of purchases by our utility customers. Though total sales were lower than anticipated, we delivered a solid quarter EBITDA margin of 17.7% and strong operating cashflows,” said Eric Vachon, President and CEO. …“Utilities continue to forecast meaningful increases in infrastructure investments, evidenced by the longer-term sales contracts secured from new and existing customers.”
Framing lumber prices continued to climb, and traders tried to assess a number of factors that might affect the market moving forward. The US presidential election injected a dose of optimism among some traders. They also weighed the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate 25 basis points, while Freddie Mac noted mortgage rates were still rising. The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price gained for the sixth straight week, climbing $11 to $441. That is its highest level since August 2023. A fading Southern Pine market was once again an exception to an otherwise upward trend in most framing lumber species. While supply-driven strength persisted in Canada and the western US, downward price momentum mounted in the South. …Western S-P-F prices continued to climb by double-digit increments in most cases. Buyers with immediate needs padded thin inventories with available supplies.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the 
A recent in-depth study, “Preliminary Evidence of Softwood Shortage and Hardwood Availability in EU Regions,” has shed light on significant supply imbalances within Europe’s forest-based bioeconomy. Researchers from Wageningen University, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, and other institutions analyzed data from the European Forest Industry Database (EUFID), revealing critical mismatches between wood resources and processing capacities across European countries. The 
For the next two weeks, countries will gather on the shores of the Caspian Sea in Baku, Azerbaijan, to discuss how to increase finance for climate crisis adaptation and mitigation. A global agreement on carbon markets will be high on the agenda as countries try to find ways of generating the trillions they need to decarbonise in order to limit heating to below 2C above preindustrial levels. …Carbon markets facilitate the trading of carbon credits. Each credit is equal to a tonne of carbon dioxide that has been reduced or removed from the atmosphere. They come from a wide range of sources: tree-planting schemes, forest protection and renewable energy projects are all common. …Where do they feature in the Paris Agreement? …Why are they so controversial? ….What are the risks if it goes badly?
