President Trump has warned of disaster if the Supreme Court overturns his signature tariffs. For starters, it would unleash a bureaucratic nightmare involving reams of refund paper checks. Should the court uphold a US Court of Appeals ruling that Trump’s country-based tariffs are illegal, the government could owe the bulk of the $165 billion in duties collected so far this fiscal year back to companies that paid them. But they won’t have an easy time getting their money back; refunds are typically issued slowly and while the administration could streamline the process, experts fear that’s unlikely. …That means Trump likely won’t part with the funds easily if the tariffs are struck down, and the administration is expected to move quickly to reimpose levies using other legal authorities if that happens. The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments in November in the case.
WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Carney is set to return to Ottawa today with no deals to remove US tariffs from Canadian goods, but he’s leaving his key minister on Canada-US trade behind to keep pressing the Canadian case. US President Trump lavished praise on Carney during a meeting in the Oval Office on Tuesday and said the prime minister would walk away “very happy.” The president showed no signs of relenting on tariffs, however, and no deal was announced. Carney was scheduled to have a working breakfast this morning with Joshua Bolten, CEO of the Business Roundtable, while Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand was set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will be staying behind in Washington. LeBlanc told reporters Tuesday that substantial progress was made in the White House talks this week.
TORONTO – United Steelworkers union National Director Marty Warren issued the following statement as Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Washington, D.C., to meet with US President Trump. …“Canada’s softwood lumber industry is on the brink of collapse. Thousands of workers and entire communities are hanging by a thread while Trump’s tariffs deindustrialize our economy and threaten good jobs across the country. We need urgent action – not more concessions. If free and fair trade in strategic sectors cannot be restored, the federal government must be ready to retaliate and take all necessary measures to protect the integrity of Canadian industrial production and employment. …We cannot allow foreign producers to use Canada as a back door for cheap, dirty, or diverted imports. …If Washington wants access to our market, it must come with respect for fair trade and for the workers who keep our economy running.”
Companies reliant on New Brunswick’s softwood lumber industry are bracing for hard times after US President Trump announced new tariffs on Sept. 30. …In a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney, New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt pleaded for the federal government to make softwood lumber tariffs a top priority. “In some communities in New Brunswick, one in every 11 workers depends directly on forest products,” Holt wrote. …Ron Marcolin, the New Brunswick vice-president with Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said the latest tariffs and duties are a big deal in a long-running drama over softwood lumber. …While New Brunswick may largely rely on the American market, Marcolin said Americans also rely on New Brunswick’s products. …”The thing is, too, they realize their product is inferior. Their softwood lumber is not as good as a Canadian stick of lumber.”
The European Commission proposed preliminary antidumping duties on imports of softwood plywood from Brazil, following an investigation launched 
President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on imported lumber and wood products that his administration says are needed to protect the US economy and boost domestic manufacturing. Starting Oct. 14, softwood lumber will face 10% duties, while kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and other finished wood goods will be hit with 25% tariffs that rise further in January. The biggest blow will fall on Canada, the US’s top lumber supplier, whose lumber exports are already subject to separate duties totaling 35.19%. …Though Canada dominates exports of lumber to the US, many other countries export wood products to the US. The Section 232 tariffs on lumber and wood products affect them in varying ways; some countries benefit from trade deals with the US that cap the rates, and others bear the full brunt. …Though lumber accounts for less than 20% of building costs, the National Association of Homebuilders has long said that restrictions on Canadian lumber translate to higher construction costs. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
North America’s softwood lumber market looks likely to end 2025 no more settled than it was at the beginning. Producers and buyers alike continue navigating a landscape shaped by fluctuating demand, shifting trade patterns, and an uncertain housing outlook. Despite modest production declines in early 2025, the lumber market remains oversupplied. Mills across the US and Canada are contending with high inventories built up earlier in the year. Expectations of tariff hikes spurred an early rush of exports from Canada to the US, flooding the market while demand was soft. However, in the first half of 2025 softwood lumber exports from Canada to the US declined, while US imports from Europe in the first seven months of 2025 increased by 6% year-over-year. Underlying these supply pressures is a US housing market stuck in the doldrums. August saw an 8.5% decline in overall housing starts, with single-family construction down nearly 7%.
Canada’s international trade deficit swelled to $6.3 billion in August, its second-largest shortfall on record, as new United States tariffs took a heavy toll on key exports and injected fresh volatility into cross-border flows. The latest figures, released by Statistics Canada, show how US trade policy continues to affect Canadian exporters and make the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision more complicated. Exports in August fell 3% by value and 3.2% in volume, led by sharp declines in copper ore and lumber shipments, both of which were hit by new US tariffs. …Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.9%, buoyed by higher consumer goods, a sign of resilient household demand, even as business investment remained soft. …Exports to the US, Canada’s largest trading partner, fell 3.4% in August after three consecutive monthly gains, and were down 8% year-over-year. Exports to non-US destinations edged up 1.8% from a year ago but slipped 2% from July.
Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened in August to C$6.32 billion ($4.53 billion) as exports fell faster in both value and volume than the rise in imports on a monthly basis, official government statistics showed on Tuesday. The trade deficit in August was led by drop in exports not only to its top trading partner the U.S. but also because its shipments to the rest of the world shrank in the month. Canada’s international trade numbers took a beating early this year as US President Trump imposed sectoral tariffs on the country, forcing businesses to reorient supply chain from its biggest trading partner. But the shift has been volatile and erratic. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the August trade deficit at C$5.55 billion, up from an upwardly revised C$3.82 billion in the prior month. Total exports dropped by 3% while imports increased 0.9%, StatsCan said.
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its September 2025 
President Donald Trump has reignited debate over the nation’s housing shortage, calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to spur a wave of new home construction. Trump accused large homebuilders of “sitting on 2 million empty lots, a record,” and likened their behavior to OPEC’s control of oil prices. …“I’m asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get Big Homebuilders going and, by so doing, help restore the American Dream!” The president’s comments come as housing inventory has rebounded from historic lows in 2022, but builders continue to face limited incentives to ramp up construction. …Since taking office, Trump has made housing a central policy focus, including an executive order for emergency price relief and a campaign to pressure the Federal Reserve for lower rates. …Despite Trump’s calls, the mechanics of how Fannie and Freddie might spur more homebuilding remain unclear. 
Shares in packaging and paper group Mondi fell sharply on Monday after the company issued a cautionary outlook, citing weak demand and falling prices across pulp and paper grades. The warning rattled investor confidence in the paper and packaging sector, dragging Mondi shares to a 12-year low. The company said volumes remained subdued and selling prices declined in most grades, particularly in fine paper and corrugated segments. Citing fragile demand, Mondi described the trading environment as challenging and flagged continued weakness for the rest of the year. CEO Andrew King told analysts that demand for packaging “has not become worse, nor has it become better,” and that weakness in the fine paper market persisted. …Mondi’s warning underscores continued strain across the paper and packaging industry. Oversupply in key markets, weak industrial demand in Europe, and aggressive pricing competition are pressuring margins and volumes across the sector.
FORT MILL, South Carolina — In a major stride towards its ambitious 2030 sustainability strategy, Domtar released its sustainability report. The report, entitled 
CASTLEGAR, BC — A BC Timber Sales manager for the Kootenay-Boundary admits they may have a hard time selling wood in the coming months as local mills cope with additional U.S. tariffs. George Edney told Castlegar city council this week that his organization, which manages and auctions 20% of the timber on Crown land, will have sales opening next week in the Boundary. …Interfor has curtailed its Grand Forks operations indefinitely due to “persistently weak market conditions.” …Edney said if the wood they offer in the Boundary doesn’t sell at the upset price, they can drop the price and try again, or they can withdraw it altogether, although typically they want the wood in the market. …Edney said they sold 581,000 cubic meters that BC Timber Sales in the Kootenays in 2024-25. Their target volume for 2025-26 is 715,000 cubic metres.
The Chemainus River reveals its secrets in strange and unexpected ways. For years, I have wandered the forests near my North Cowichan home in search of the last few ancient trees, finding a few nice specimens here and there. In the heavily logged, 5,000-hectare Municipal Forest Reserve — popularly known as the Six Mountains, an hour north of Victoria — they are as elusive as the last rhinos of Sumatra. With a bit of luck, I hope my persistence may yet pay off. I don’t know it at the time, but my quest will launch me on a journey from the river’s headwaters to its mouth in pursuit of questions fundamental to the Chemainus and its future. How have human activities like industrial logging shaped the river, its watershed, and its salmon? …In my search for answers, I will discover modern challenges that bedevil other B.C. coastal rivers.
ATLANTA — Forest Stewardship Council US announced the approval of the revised 
Roughly 500 years ago in California’s High Sierra, pine cones dropped to the ground and a cycle began. …Half a millennia later, US Forest Service scientists began testing strategies to save these now ancient and massive trees in the little-known area east of Fresno called the Teakettle Experimental Forest. They had plans to light a huge prescribed burn to clear overgrowth next year. But then the Garnet Fire ignited and scorched all 3,000 federally protected acres on its path through the Sierra National Forest. …Scott Scherbinski, a biologist at the Climate & Wildfire Institute, said “It will be a start-over event for this forest.” …Malcolm North, a Forest Service ecologist said…fires with less intensity can be beneficial in California’s fire-adapted landscapes, but the Garnet Fire, when it burned through in September, may have killed most trees and sterilized the ground — making it unlikely the forest can rebound without intervention. [to access the full story a San Francisco Chronicle subscription is required]
THUNDER BAY — A number of stakeholders, largely from the forestry and energy sectors, got to provide regional input into a series of ongoing cross-province talks about energy policy. The Vaughn and Thunder Bay Chambers of Commerce held a roundtable discussion in the city on Oct. 2. The goal was for regional interests to provide requested input into an issues paper on energy being developed by the Toronto-based business lobby. …In Northwestern Ontario, she said, that includes longstanding sources like hydroelectricity and natural gas, but also continually-emerging opportunities connected to forestry and biomass. “We also talked a lot about the opportunities through the forest sector and biomass and the many things that can be created by harnessing forest products into energy,” Robinson said. “I think the most important thing was talking about how, from a forestry perspective, it really does check all the boxes.”
WASHINGTON — The US Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a high-profile challenge to Washington’s Climate Commitment Act, marking yet another victory for the state’s keystone climate policy. The lawsuit started with the private operator of a natural gas power plant in Grays Harbor County. The plant is required to buy pollution allowances to pay for the many tons of greenhouse gasses it emits into the atmosphere under the 2021 “Cap and Invest” law. The plant’s owner, Chicago-based Invenergy, sued Laura Watson, then-head of Washington’s Department of Ecology, in late 2022, arguing that the state’s carbon market is unconstitutional. The lawsuit claimed that the state law discriminated against privately operated natural gas plants. In 2023, US District Court Judge Benjamin Settle dismissed the case. The company appealed. …The Supreme Court on Monday denied Invenergy’s petition outright. The justices did not publish any written justification for their decision.
The failure of carbon offsets to cut planet-heating pollution is “not due to a few bad apples”, a 
NOVA SCOTIA — Unseasonably warm temperatures proved challenging Monday as the fight against an out-of-control wildfire in Nova Scotia’s Annapolis Valley entered its second week. The Department of Natural Resources estimated that the fire at Lake George had grown slightly in 24 hours to just over 2.8 square kilometres, mainly because of dry and windy conditions. Monday’s forecast for the area near Aylesford, N.S., called for a high of 28 C — the average daily high in the region for October is normally below 15 C. “I can’t believe it — in October we normally get frost and cold,” Dave Corkum, mayor of the Municipality of the County of Kings, said in an interview. “There is some rain in the forecast in a few days and hopefully we will get it.” Despite the conditions, Corkum said there are no reports of damage to structures in the area.