Blog Archives

Special Feature

An interview with BC’s Ministry of Forests’ new deputy minister Makenzie Leine

By Andy Watson
Truck LoggerBC Magazine
September 30, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

Earlier this year, British Columbia appointed a new deputy minister for the Ministry of Forests. Raised in the heart of the forestry sector, born into the family of a truck logger and growing up in a forestry camp, Makenzie Leine has been tasked with supporting a sector facing significant challenges. …Working with Minister of Forests Ravi Parmar and the ministry team to fulfill a mandate focused on both immediate, short-term improvements and long-term sustainability for the sector, there are a series of deliverables she is supporting. These include increasing value by supporting value-added and innovative forest products; diversifying wood products in domestic and international markets; bringing groups together in forest landscape planning tables to chart a path forward for the stewardship of BC’s forests and forest industry; improving permitting efficiency; and, working toward ensuring a sustainable land base to enable the harvest of 45 million cubic metres a year, while fulfilling the Province’s commitment to old growth.

Easy, right? And all this with the added challenge of combatting the impacts of American tariffs—including those on softwood lumber and other protectionist measures—the price crisis in the timber sector, the impacts of wildfires and insect infestation on supply, and increasing wildfire activity due to impacts of climate change. “We’re in a very unique time right now, and it’s very, very tough,” Leine says. “It’s a time that is probably different than anything we’ve seen. …”I don’t think we can come to the table with the answers. I think we have to come to the table with our own understanding of our accountability and our part in it and work together to figure out how we sort through it, together.” Ultimately, Leine says, it can only be achieved by bringing together industry, First Nations, communities, and other interested parties to work together toward these goals, with government being stewards of the work ahead.

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Opinion / EdiTOADial

Demand is not coming to the rescue for the forest industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial: Mason

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
October 1, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date.  Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising! 

For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts.  On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.

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Business & Politics

Carney to meet Trump next week, potential movement on steel and aluminum tariffs expected

By Stephanie Ha and Judy Trinh
CTV News
October 3, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to head to Washington early next week to meet with US. President Trump. …Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, Industry Minister Melanie Joly and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will accompany Carney. This latest visit comes as Canadian and U.S. officials try to reach a deal on punishing American tariffs, and as a review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement gets underway. …Over the summer, the U.S. hiked its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, with Canada imposing a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum. …The source says next week’s meeting follows weeks of groundwork by LeBlanc, Canadian Ambassador to the US Kirsten Hillman and Clerk of the Privy Council Michael Sabia, with the team being aware the discussions could go sideways.

In related coverage:

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Statement by the Canadian Lumber Trade Alliance on the U.S. Section 232 Tariffs on Canadian Softwood Lumber

By Canadian Lumber Trade Alliance
BC Lumber Trade Council
October 3, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

The Canadian Lumber Trade Alliance (CLTA) issued the following statement. …Luc Theriault, President, Wood Products at Domtar and Co-Chair of the Canadian Lumber Trade Alliance, said “The U.S. government’s decision to impose a further 10% tariff – on top of existing duties of 35% – is disappointing. These measures unjustly punish Canadian producers, while also driving up costs for our neighbors in the US.” …“Canadian lumber does not pose a national security risk to the United States. Our industry directly supports 200,000 jobs and sustains over 300 forest-dependent communities across Canada. We will continue to work closely with the Government of Canada to defend against these unfortunate trade actions and to safeguard Canadian forestry jobs.” …In its recent Section 232 proclamation, the US signaled a willingness to pursue negotiations. The Canadian industry is ready to engage. It is essential that the Government of Canada match this commitment and play an active role in defending our industry.

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Pushed by Trump, Canada enters a new era of economic nationalism

By Mark Rendell
The Globe and Mail
October 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Mark Carney

As trade negotiations with the United States sputtered over the summer, Prime Minister Mark Carney started talking about a new, domestically oriented solution for Canada’s tariff-battered industries. …On the surface, this looks like a suite of emergency measures to help companies bridge a temporary loss of demand similar to those announced as the COVID-19 pandemic spread. Taken together, however, it represents a more fundamental shift in Canada’s political economy. If key Canadian industries can’t sell into the US market, the argument goes, perhaps the government can cultivate domestic markets to pick up the slack. …In effect, US President Trump’s America First economic vision is pushing Canada to follow suit. …And it unveiled a new “Buy Canadian” procurement policy for steel and lumber. …Derek Nighbor, of the Forest Products Association of Canada, said there’s an incremental opportunity to sell more lumber in Canada. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

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LeBlanc: No timeline for reaching tariff deals, but talks not at a ‘dead end’

By Kyle Duggan
The Canadian Press in Business in Vancouver
October 2, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Dominic LeBlanc

OTTAWA — It’s futile to predict how long trade talks with President Trump’s White House might last, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc told the House of Commons trade committee Thursday. He told a Senate foreign affairs committee that Canada is still in discussions on dropping the sector-specific tariffs putting pressure on Canadian industries and he does not see “a dead end in those conversations.” …The minister told senators he is hoping to make progress on one-off, sector-specific tariff deals before the official review of North America’s trilateral trade pact launches next year. He added that “nobody has yet suggested” Ottawa should fold the sector-specific talks into the broader review. …The president escalated his trade war again this week, through an executive order adding a 10% tariff on softwood lumber and 25% tariff on wooden furniture.

Related coverage:

By Sean Boynton in Global News: Trade war ‘resolvable’ but U.S. ties have ‘fundamentally’ changed

By Ashley Burke in CBC News: Carney to return to Washington as Trump’s tariffs hit sectors hard

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Steelworkers denounce Trump’s reckless lumber tariffs as devastating blow to workers and communities

By Marty Warren and Jeff Bromley
United Steelworkers
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

The United Steelworkers union (USW) is denouncing the latest escalation in Trump’s trade war, following his September 29 proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber exports to the US. …“For decades, Canadian lumber has supported the US housing market, keeping construction costs down for American families while sustaining good jobs here at home,” said Marty Warren, USW National Director. “Instead of recognizing that reality, Trump has chosen to pursue reckless trade policies that will drive up housing prices in the US and put tens of thousands of Canadian jobs at risk.” …Jeff Bromley, Chair of the USW Wood Council, underscored the toll on workers and communities across the country. “With nearly half the value of every Canadian lumber shipment being siphoned off at the border, sawmills, logging operations and whole towns in Canada are facing devastating consequences.” …The Steelworkers are urging the federal government to respond with urgency and resolve. 

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Canadian softwood producers hit with new 10% tariff on lumber shipments into U.S.

By Brent Jang
The Globe and Mail
October 31, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Canada has repeatedly rejected the US positions in the softwood trade battle, which dates back to the early 1980s. “These tariffs will not improve U.S. national security – they will only drive up lumber costs, making housing even less affordable for American families,” Kurt Niquidet, of the BC Lumber Trade Council, said. “Placing additional tariffs on Ontario’s forest sector under the false flag of national security is a disturbing abuse of presidential power,” Ian Dunn, of the Ontario Forest Industries Association, said. …Sawmills in Canada have seen their market share of US lumber consumption steadily decline since 2016. …Raymond James Ltd. analyst Daryl Swetlishoff said the stage has been set for additional decreases in lumber capacity in Canada over the next six to 12 months. RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew McKellar said the new tariffs will place extra pressure on Canadian producers. “Tariffs will potentially accelerate curtailments of Canadian supply,” he said. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]

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The Imposition of Additional U.S. Duties on Canadian Forestry Products Is Unjustified

By Derek Nighbor, President and CEO
Forest Products Association of Canada
September 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Canada’s forest products sector strongly opposes the US administration’s decision to impose additional punitive tariffs not only on softwood lumber but also on derivative products, including furniture and kitchen cabinets. The targeting of Canada’s forestry products under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is unjustified and disregards decades of evidence and cooperation that confirm Canadian forest products strengthen, rather than threaten, US national security. This broad action further undermines a deeply integrated North American supply chain that supports housing affordability, infrastructure, manufacturing, and shared prosperity and security on both sides of the border. …The new Section 232 tariffs pushes the total duty burden to over 45%. This compounds pressure, distorts markets, threatens jobs on both sides of the border, and escalates trade tensions. …This misguided move risks raising housing costs in the United States and undermines the integrated trade relationship that has provided jobs, investment, and prosperity in both countries,” said Nighbor.

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New Tariffs on Lumber, Wood Product Imports Add Headwinds to Housing Market

The National Association of Home Builders
September 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

In a move that will raise housing costs, the US Commerce Department today imposed a 10% tariff on all timber and lumber imports and an additional 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets and furniture after announcing that it found that imports of these materials and products pose a national security risk. The tariffs go into effect on Oct. 14. The tariffs on furniture products are slated to rise to 30% and kitchen cabinets to 50%. “These new tariffs will create additional headwinds for an already challenged housing market by further raising construction and renovation costs,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. …While the 10% tax rate on lumber and timber will put upward pressure on construction costs, it is significantly lower than other Section 232 tariffs. …US sawmills are operating at just 64% of their potential capacity, a figure that has dropped steadily since 2017. It will take years until domestic lumber production ramps up to meet the needs of our citizens. 

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Plans for OSB mill in Prince Albert still underway despite market uncertainty

By Teena Monteleone
Prince Albert NOW
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

PRINCE ALBERT, Saskatchewan — “It’s taking way too long, and harder than we were hoping, but we have not given up.” That’s the message being delivered by those involved with One Sky Forestry Products‘ OSB mill project planned for Prince Albert. Last week, the Saskatchewan NDP said the mill was the latest in a string of major economic projects delayed or cancelled under a Sask. Party government. …However, a source at the OSB mill project said while they were in somewhat of a holding pattern because of the trade uncertainty with the US, the board of directors had a meeting last week and made the unanimous decision not to cancel or shelve the project, but instead look at ways to move it along. …They added the timing of the project that was supposed to be completed in 2027 and provide 700 jobs, will depend on whether they can tap into financing support sooner rather than later.

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B.C. lumber industry faces eye-watering 45% U.S. tariffs

CBC News
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would impose a further 10 per cent tariff on imported lumber — beyond existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties — meaning B.C. lumber will face a 45 per cent tariff rate starting on Oct. 14. Brian Menzies of the Independent Wood Processors Association of B.C. says the U.S. government hasn’t shown a willingness to hash out a deal on softwood lumber, despite overtures from Canada.

Related coverage:

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American tariffs on BC lumber are absurd, means Russia now has preferential access to the US market

By Wolfgang Depner
The Victoria Times Colonist
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Eby

Ravi Parmar

It is “completely absurd” that softwood lumber exports from BC to the United States face higher duties than the same product from Russia, Premier David Eby said Wednesday. He said the softwood lumber industry is “under direct attack” after US President Trump imposed an additional tariff of 10% on imported softwood lumber starting Oct. 14. “I want you to just keep in mind the perspective that Russia now has preferential access for their softwood to the US compared with Canada and British Columbia,” Eby said. …This new levy means that Canadian softwood lumber entering the US will see total import taxes exceeding 45%, while Russia is exempt. …Forests Minister Ravi Parmar said “Russia is the largest exporter of softwood lumber in the world. BC, a small province, is the second-largest. So, the US has a choice. Do they want to do business with British Columbia or do they want to do business with Russia?”

BC Government Press Release: Premier’s, minister’s statements on Section 232 tariff decision from United States

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New Brunswick softwood lumber industry braces for hit from Donald Trump’s latest tariffs

By Jordan Gill
CBC News
October 5, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Companies reliant on New Brunswick’s softwood lumber industry are bracing for hard times after US President Trump announced new tariffs on Sept. 30. …In a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney, New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt pleaded for the federal government to make softwood lumber tariffs a top priority. “In some communities in New Brunswick, one in every 11 workers depends directly on forest products,” Holt wrote. …Ron Marcolin, the New Brunswick vice-president with Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said the latest tariffs and duties are a big deal in a long-running drama over softwood lumber.  …While New Brunswick may largely rely on the American market, Marcolin said Americans also rely on New Brunswick’s products. …”The thing is, too, they realize their product is inferior. Their softwood lumber is not as good as a Canadian stick of lumber.”

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Deal reached to save northern Ontario paper mill from closure

By Dan Bertrand
CTV News
October 4, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

ONTARIO — Upper levels of government have reached funding agreements to support the Town of Kapuskasing’s Paper Mill, averting a planned closure and providing what local leaders are calling “a critical step” toward securing the region’s economic future. Kap Paper announced the newfound support in a social media post on Friday evening. “Next week, we’ll be working out the details for a restart plan,” the post said, adding that updates would be shared “as soon as everything is confirmed.” Kapuskasing Mayor Dave Plourde, called the deal a “critical step forward for Kapuskasing and the entire region,” in a statement posted to the town’s social media page. …“We now have a second chance – a window of opportunity to come together, calmly and deliberately, to build a plan for modernization and long-term competitiveness,” said Plourde …“Today, I am pleased to confirm that both the federal and provincial governments have agreed to provide support.”

In related coverage:

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Advanced Wood Manufacturing Companies in Ontario Condemns Punitive Tariffs

Wood Manufacturing Cluster of Ontario
October 2, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

The advanced wood manufacturing sector in Ontario and across Canada condemns the latest United States administration’s decision to impose unjustified punitive tariffs on kitchen cabinets, select wood furniture, and manufactured softwood lumber products. Immediate action is required by by our Federal and Provincial governments on all political sides to work diligently and aggressively to get these tariffs lifted; this is to guarantee jobs and prosperity for our communities across the country. The advanced wood manufacturing sector in Canada represents over $20 billion in revenues, over 100,000 employees, and includes a majority of small and medium-sized employers. …These tariffs will have a devastating impact on companies that export to the United States. They will also disrupt the North American housing sector supply chain, raise costs for housing in the United States, and destroy the shared prosperity and integrated trade relationship provided.

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Kapuskasing strong’: Hundreds rally to save papermill

By Maija Hoggett
Timmins Today
October 2, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

KAPUSKASING – In the shadow of the Kap Paper mill and with empty rail cards in the background, hundreds of people rallied today to save the Kapuskasing facility that the company announced on Monday would be idled. The ask is for a three-month loan from the province to give the company time to apply for a federal government longer-term fund. “The money will ensure Kap Paper can transition to a long-term stable market. We need Ontario and the federal government to work with us on a solution and not point fingers at each other. The fate of our town’s mills, workers and families are too important for these games,” Kapuskasing, Mayor Dave Plourde said. GreenFirst announced today that its sawmill operations in Kapuskasing, Hearst, Cochrane will be reduced for one week starting on Oct. 6. While Politis said it was heartwarming to see the crowd standing together, he’s disappointed in politicians.

Related coverage in CBC News: Union says Kapuskasing mill workers were told it was ‘business as usual’ 2 weeks before shutdown

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GreenFirst Announces the Temporary Curtailment of Some of its Operations

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc.
September 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

TORONTO — GreenFirst Forest Products announced a temporary curtailment of certain operations in order to reassess its options, following Kap Paper’s decision to begin an orderly idling of operations at its Kapuskasing paper mill. The announced idling of Kap Paper — GreenFirst’s primary customer for wood by-products — significantly worsens the challenge of managing these residual materials in Ontario. This marks the fourth pulp and paper mill to close in the province over the past two years. The two remaining pulp and paper mills in Western Ontario cannot, on their own, absorb the full volume of chips and biomass generated by sawmill operations across the province. These tough times have been exacerbated by tariffs and resulting economic uncertainty. …Effective October 6, 2025, the Company will reduce sawmill operations at its Kapuskasing, Hearst, and Cochrane facilities for the equivalent of one week. The curtailment at the Kapuskasing sawmill could extend beyond this period.

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Ottawa says it will ‘keep working’ with northern Ontario paper mill to resume its operations

The Canadian Press
September 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Ottawa says it will keep working to help save a northern Ontario paper mill that cited a lack of immediate federal support as it announced this week it was forced to idle operations. Industry Minister Melanie Joly’s office says it had “come to the table” with federal supports for Kap Paper in Kapuskasing, Ont., which directly employs about 420 people and supports 2,500 jobs in the region. It says the federal government has been working directly with the struggling company, citing support offered through the Strategic Innovation Fund and targeted programs. Kap Paper said on Monday that it had received $50 million in loans from the Ontario government and had approached Ottawa for funding, but despite “initial positive responses,” there was no immediate solution to keep the paper mill open. …Joly’s office says it will keep working with the company on options to resume its operations.

Related Coverage in CBC News: Kapuskasing paper mill idling, but company and union saying little else

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US Government Shuts Down After Lawmakers Fail To Reach Funding Deal

By Erin Krueger
Biodiesel Magazine
October 1, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States
 

Much of the federal government shutdown in the early hours of Oct. 1 after federal lawmakers failed to reach a funding deal. If  the shutdown persists, work related to federal data reporting, rulemakings and other regulatory initiatives could face delays.  Ahead of the shutdown, many federal agencies published contingency plans on how work at those agencies may be impacted in the short term. …The USDA is expected to furlough 42,256 of its 85,907 employees, equating to more than 49% of the agency’s workforce. Data products and website updates offered by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and Foreign Agricultural Service are among agency activities that are expected to cease during the funding lapse. …FAS also publishes a variety of data of interest to bioenergy producers, including monthly export data on ethanol, distillers grains, biodiesel and wood pellets. FAS also publishes reports that provide insight on foreign markets for biofuels and wood pellets. 

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New Zealand timber industry welcomes 10% tariff as a ‘bit of relief’

Radio New Zealand
September 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

NEW ZEALAND — News that US President Trump imposed a tariff of 10 percent on imported timber has come as a relief to industry, which expected a higher figure. Mark Ross, chief executive of the Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association, said it was a relief as they thought it would be higher. “We’ve been working through the essential impact of a tariff on our products since March this year so it wasn’t a shock because we were, at one point, expecting a 50% tariff. “So 10% is a bit of relief. It is still going to have a financial impact on the wood processing industry in New Zealand. …Ross said they were working with exporters to work out how to handle the extra costs. …Ross said the United States was New Zealand’s third-largest export market and continued to grow.

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Trump’s tariffs on imported wood products will inflate costs, impact truck safety

By Noi Mahoney
FreightWaves
September 30, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

The Trump administration on Monday announced tariffs on imported wood products, targeting softwood lumber, timber, kitchen cabinets, vanities and upholstered furniture. …Trump’s proclamation said wood product imports were weakening the US economy, resulting in a persistent threat to the US supply chains and harming the domestic wood industry. “Because of the state of the United States wood industry, the US may be unable to meet demands for wood products that are crucial to the national defense and critical infrastructure,” the proclamation said. …Critics of the tariffs have voiced concern that the new duties will inflate costs for American consumers and builders. Former US Rep. Matt Cartwright, (D-Pennsylvania), said safety will suffer as a result of the new tariff on imports of trucks. …“A lot of these companies are already on shoestring budgets, and unfortunately the first thing that gets cut when costs go up is safety,” Cartwright said.

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New Era as Ric Sinclair Takes Helm as Forestry South Australia Chair

By Jason Ross
Wood Central Australia
October 3, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

Ric Sinclair

SOUTH AUSTRALIA — Ric Sinclair has been appointed as Chair of ForestrySA, succeeding June Roache, who has served as Chair of South Australia’s government-owned forest manager since 2018. “It is a great honour to be appointed Chair of ForestrySA for a 3-year term,” said Sinclair, who from 2008 until 2021 served as the long-time CEO of Forest Wood Products Australia (FWPA). …Sinclair, who was instrumental in establishing FWPA’s long-running social license partnership with Planet Ark and the award-winning WoodSolutions programme, will take over from Roache, who has increased ForestrySA’s net asset position and returned a dividend to the government. …ForestrySA oversees 10,500 hectares of plantation pine—supplying logs for regional domestic markets and select exports—and more than 16,000 hectares of native forest. These support conservation, recreation, and eco-tourism whilst adhering to a certified Forest Management System under Responsible Wood’s Australian Forestry Standard.

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Finance & Economics

Trump has his eye on Canadian forestry stocks. You should, too

By David Berman
The Globe and Mail
October 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

It’s hard to find anything good to say about Canadian forestry stocks right now. Some of the biggest names in the sector have been on a downward slide for the past three years. … But the onslaught of grim news has highlighted some bargains. …Okay, the definition of attractive rests on an assumption that risk-averse investors might not want to embrace just yet: Despite Mr. Trump’s bluster, the US still needs Canadian lumber in a big way to feed its lumber-intensive home construction industry. Says who? The National Association of Home Builders, for one. …Some analysts believe that US forestry companies will struggle to replace Canadian softwood. Ben Isaacson, at Bank of Nova Scotia, estimates that US producers would have to build 50 new mills to become fully independent of Canadian lumber. Just two companies build the specialized equipment required in mills. They would struggle to supply even two mills a year. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

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Lumber Futures Prices Rise on Trump’s New Tariff

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures prices are trading higher after President Trump slapped a 10% tariff on wood imports. Lumber prices have been on a rollercoaster this year, lifted by higher import taxes and tugged lower by the deteriorating housing and construction markets. …Trump’s executive order said the additional 10% tariff, which will also raise the price of lumber from European suppliers like Germany and Sweden, is aimed at protecting domestic sawmills. …Analysts expect the tariff to benefit domestic sawyers and timberland owners, such as Weyerhaeuser and PotlatchDeltic, at the expense of competitors north of the border, who have been losing US market share because of the duties, challenges supplying their sawmills with logs and the abundance of cheap US pine. “Canadian lumber producers’ cash costs should further increase, resulting in capacity closures and a tightening of lumber supply-demand dynamics,” said Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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U.S. Section 232 Tariffs on Lumber: Navigating the New Trade Landscape

By Audrey Dixon
ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The softwood lumber trade dispute between the US and Canada, which has led to ever-higher US import duties on Canadian lumber, has lasted for decades. …Canadian lumber has the backing NAHB, which sees lumber tariffs as exacerbating high costs for builders and worsening the US housing affordability crisis. There is currently a “Wall of Wood” in the US, after Canadian producers increased shipments to the US in anticipation of the hike to existing ADD and CVD duties in August. Expectations that a large increase in duties would force the closure of Canadian sawmills, lead to shortages, and a boost in lumber prices, overlooked the current weak US demand for lumber, according to Matt Layman. …As US homebuilders now face additional tariff-driven costs, including a 50% tariff on cabinets and vanities, it’s hard to see the lumber demand situation improving, even if more Canadian suppliers have to curtail production or close sawmills.

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How are increased antidumping duties on Canadian lumber shipments to US likely to impact the market?

RISI Fastmarkets
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Although we are skeptical how effective the C$500 million in “transition” funding will be, the C$700 million in loan guarantees, which are clearly designed as a short-term lifeline for companies to weather the storm, seem pretty meaningful to the Canadian industry at first glance. …If Canadian producers were to simply absorb the incremental duty rate increase, using today’s FOB price for most Canadian softwood lumber and last year’s export volumes to the US translates to a “just pay it” cost of C$1.6-1.7 billion in additional duty payments over the next 12 months. Canadian mill operators are not in a financial position to simply absorb an additional 21-percentage-point increase in duties, so this is an extreme estimate of the true cost. Mills will curtail output rather than continue producing at heavy losses until prices adjust accordingly. Additionally, there is usually some degree of passthrough from the buyer to the seller.

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U.S. lumber tariffs could add $8,900 to cost of building a home: USB Group

Seeking Alpha
September 30, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The Trump administration’s latest tariffs on housing materials could raise the average cost of building a single-family home by nearly $9,000, according to a report Tuesday from UBS. Research analyst John Lovallo said the new levies include “an incremental 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood timber and lumber imports, as well as 25% levies on kitchen cabinets, vanities and upholstered wood products.” UBS estimates the lumber tariff will add about $720 per home, while cabinet and vanity tariffs could tack on another $280. Upholstered wood products were not included in the calculation because they are generally purchased by homeowners rather than builders. “As a result, we now estimate the total tariff impact on the cost to construct an average home at approximately $8.9K,” Lovallo wrote. …“Importantly, we continue to believe this cost impact will be spread throughout the entire housing value chain, with the builders perhaps best positioned to push back on suppliers,” he said.

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Fannie Mae predicts major mortgage rate change coming soon

By Jeffrey Quiggle
The Street
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Fannie Mae revised its mortgage rate forecast and other predictions about the U.S. economy in the September report. Among its projections are:

  • Mortgage rates are expected to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively, compared to 6.5%  and 6.1% in Fannie Mae’s prior forecast.
  • The total home sales outlook for 2025 was revised to 4.72 million, compared to 4.74 million previously. Its 2026 home sales projection is 5.16 million, compared to 5.23 million previously.
  • It revised its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 to 1.5 percent and 2.1 percent on a Q4/Q4 basis, compared to 1.1 percent and 2.2 percent in its previous forecast, respectively.
  • Regarding inflation, Fannie Mae expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise to 3.1 percent Q4/Q4 in 2025, compared to its August forecast of 3.3 percent. The CPI outlook for 2026 is 2.6 percent, a prediction that is unchanged.

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Trump’s New Tariffs Could Worsen America’s Housing Crisis

By Sydney Ember
New York Times
October 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs aimed at wood, furniture and other household furnishings could drive up the cost of building and owning homes, further weighing on an already weak housing sector. Analysts said the steep levies could aggravate the nationwide housing shortage by slowing the pace of new home construction. The higher costs, as well as hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum that went into effect in June, could also dampen any jolt the housing market might have derived as the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates. …“These tariffs are really hard to understand given that the president has said to his supporters, ‘I want to bring down inflation, I want to bring down interest rates,’” said Anirban Basu, at the Associated Builders and Contractors. …And there could be ripple effects, including higher prices for home insurance because houses and their components would cost more to replace. [to access the full story a NY Times subscription is required]

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US Consumer Confidence Drops on Job Concerns

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer confidence fell to a five-month low as consumers remain concerned about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market amid economic uncertainty. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, has narrowed for nine straight month and is now at lowest level since March 2021. This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring. The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 97.8 to 94.2 in September, the lowest level since April. …In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 7.0 points from 132.4 to 125.4, the largest monthly decline since September 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped 1.3 points from 74.7 to 73.4. This is the eighth consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

Bringing Truth and Reconciliation to life – The Centre for Indigenous Laws honours traditions and the land

By Cheryl Mah
The REMI Network
September 29, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada West

The Centre for Indigenous Laws at the University of Victoria is a groundbreaking project. Opened in September 2025, the building – formerly known as the National Centre for Indigenous Laws – sets a benchmark for how thoughtful design and construction can bring the truth and legacies of Indigenous peoples to life. Spanning 26,000 square feet, the new wing of the Fraser Building is culturally significant – built in the spirit of truth and reconciliation principles to house the world’s first joint degree in Indigenous legal orders and Canadian common law. …The building incorporates mass timber construction, including exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) panels and Douglas-fir glue-laminated timber beams. Trees felled were blessed by local Elders to honour their significance and connection to the land before being reused. Yellow cedar, western red cedar and Douglas-fir are used extensively. …It has already been recognized with an industry award, earning a 2023 Canadian Architect Award of Excellence.

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Forestry

Down a Forgotten River

By Larry Lynn
The Tyee
October 3, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

The Chemainus River reveals its secrets in strange and unexpected ways. For years, I have wandered the forests near my North Cowichan home in search of the last few ancient trees, finding a few nice specimens here and there. In the heavily logged, 5,000-hectare Municipal Forest Reserve — popularly known as the Six Mountains, an hour north of Victoria — they are as elusive as the last rhinos of Sumatra. With a bit of luck, I hope my persistence may yet pay off. I don’t know it at the time, but my quest will launch me on a journey from the river’s headwaters to its mouth in pursuit of questions fundamental to the Chemainus and its future. How have human activities like industrial logging shaped the river, its watershed, and its salmon? …In my search for answers, I will discover modern challenges that bedevil other B.C. coastal rivers.

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B.C. forest industry dismantling Integrity of the hydrological Cycle

By Eli Pivnick and Janet Parkins
Castnet
September 30, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

Do you remember the hydrological cycle that you learned about in school? Rain and snow fall from the sky. Tree leaves and branches slow the fall of rain. In the spring, snow slowly melts, the melt slowed because trees shade the snow and cool the air. Some of the rain and melted snow infiltrate deep into the ground, aided by the presence of tree roots, to become part of the ground water that flows downhill, slowed by tree roots. …Transpiration from tree leaves, and evaporation from the land, lakes and ocean return the water to the sky and the cycle starts over again. But wait. Remove a major part of the trees from the cycle and what happens? Rain and snow land directly on the ground. Less rain infiltrates the soil and, with no tree roots, what ground water there is flows downhill more quickly.

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Domtar, Government of Canada support efforts by Nature Conservancy of Canada to conserve ecologically significant lands in central Newfoundland

Domtar
October 1, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada East

GANDER, Newfoundland — The Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC) is announcing a bold campaign to protect more than 1,800 hectares of boreal forest, freshwater shoreline and wetlands in central Newfoundland and Labrador. It is the largest land donation NCC has received during its 54-year history working in Atlantic Canada. Domtar has agreed to donate land to NCC, thus allowing NCC to conserve four large parcels of forested lands and waters along the Southwest Gander River and Gander Lake near the communities of Glenwood and Appleton. The land donation project is significant as it enables better wildlife movement through connected conservation lands. Less than three per cent of the Central Newfoundland ecoregion currently falls under conservation status. …”This initiative reflects our commitment to community, sustainability and collaboration… that safeguard biodiversity — which is embedded in our 2030 sustainability strategy. We are honored to play a role,” said Luc Thériault, President, Domtar Wood Products.

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‘All the trees are dead’: An ancient California forest has been wiped out

By Julie Johnson
The San Francisco Chronicle
October 5, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

Roughly 500 years ago in California’s High Sierra, pine cones dropped to the ground and a cycle began. …Half a millennia later, US Forest Service scientists began testing strategies to save these now ancient and massive trees in the little-known area east of Fresno called the Teakettle Experimental Forest. They had plans to light a huge prescribed burn to clear overgrowth next year.  But then the Garnet Fire ignited and scorched all 3,000 federally protected acres on its path through the Sierra National Forest. …Scott Scherbinski, a biologist at the Climate & Wildfire Institute, said “It will be a start-over event for this forest.” …Malcolm North, a Forest Service ecologist said…fires with less intensity can be beneficial in California’s fire-adapted landscapes, but the Garnet Fire, when it burned through in September, may have killed most trees and sterilized the ground — making it unlikely the forest can rebound without intervention. [to access the full story a San Francisco Chronicle subscription is required]

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Shutdown causes ‘confusion’ across the US Forest Service

By Kylie Mohr
The High Country News
October 2, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US East

MONTANA — With the federal government in a shutdown, the Forest Service has paused much of the wildfire preparation and prevention work it does on its 193 million acres of national forest. A Forest Service contingency plan, current as of Sept. 30, calls for continued wildfire response. But the work necessary to reduce the fuels for massive wildfires, including prescribed burns, is on hold. …“We were told, ‘No ignitions,’” said a Forest Service fire management officer, who didn’t want to be named for fear of losing his job. “‘Don’t even start.’” The cooler, wetter fall season is an ideal time for prescribed burns and pile burning across the West. …Other significant activities will be delayed during the shutdown, including statewide forest inventories, processing special use permits and reimbursing partners like the states and non-governmental organizations that do forest management work with federal funds.

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Nestle, others warn EU law delays are endangering forests worldwide

By Virginia Furness
Reuters in Trading View
October 3, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: International

Major agri-food companies including Nestle, Ferrero and Olam Agri have warned that European Union delays to its anti-deforestation law are endangering forests worldwide. The EU last month proposed delaying the launch of its anti-deforestation law for a second time, citing concerns about the readiness of information-technology systems needed to support the law. The delay could postpone the ban on imports of commodities such as palm oil linked to forest destruction for another year. The law faces major opposition from industry and EU trade partners such as the United States and Brazil. EU Commissioner Jessika Roswall said last week the delay was not linked to U.S. concerns about the policy. …Contrary to the EU’s aim of simplifying rules for business, any changes at this stage would introduce uncertainty, annoy shareholders and risk the rules being watered down further, the companies said. The EU deforestation law was due to take effect on December 30.

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FSC Suspends Memorandum of Understanding with APRIL Following Reports of Alleged Violence

FSC.org
September 26, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: International

The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) has suspended its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Ltd. (APRIL) and its corporate group, effective immediately.  FSC was recently informed of serious allegations of violence involving Toba Pulp Lestari (TPL), a member of APRIL’s corporate group, and an Indigenous community in North Sumatra, Indonesia. These allegations, which include reports of attacks on community members, if confirmed, would be contrary to the intent and commitments of the MoU.  FSC will consider lifting the suspension if an independent investigation is conducted which identifies the root causes of the conflict, and results in the transparent implementation of corrective measures in line with the Remedy Framework. Failure to demonstrate meaningful progress may lead to the termination of the MoU. 

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

Australian Forest Products Association welcomes National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy discussion paper

Australian Forest Products Association
October 2, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: International

AUSTRALIA — The Federal Government’s National Bioenergy Feedstock Strategy discussion paper released by the Hon Julie Collins MP, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, is being welcomed by the Australian Forest Products Association (AFPA) for the new economic and environmental opportunities it presents for our sector and the country, Chief Executive Officer of AFPA, Diana Hallam said. The discussion paper covers the opportunities for bioenergy to contribute to Australia’s net zero goals, the production of potential feedstocks, required infrastructure and supply chain readiness and maturity, addressing social licence and sustainability, as well as biosecurity and traceability issues. …Diana Hallam said, “While many in the forest products industry are aware of the bioenergy opportunities for the sector, having a national strategy will seriously maximise the potential for forest industries to enhance their contribution, grow public awareness of the importance of wood fibre in this area and help Australia achieve net zero.

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