Kevin Mason
The US tariff regime is far from over despite a US Supreme Court ruling striking down last year’s tariffs authorized by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Although the court noted in its ruling that the president overstepped his authority in applying reciprocal tariffs on virtually all trading partners, it did leave the door open for other means of tariff application—and the US Administration has wasted no time in charging through that door, turning to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new global tariffs of 10% (likely moving to 15%). Tariffs under Section 122 expire after 150 days without congressional approval, but we assume other options will be put in place before expiry (Section 232, 301 or some other creative mechanism).
With respect to the forest products industry, cessation of IEEPA tariffs and application of these new Section 122 tariffs have no impact on existing lumber duties (35% remains intact), nor for any existing tariffs under Section 232 (at 10%) or goods currently compliant under USMCA (such goods remain tariff-free under Section 122). Although USMCA-compliant goods are safe from tariffs for now, with that trade deal being reviewed this summer the tariff-free flow of goods among the US, Mexico and Canada could be upended. Since almost all newsprint supply comes from Canada (see page 19), that fear is ostensibly already causing U.S. buyers to accelerate purchases. Our table details what we know at the moment about the new tariff regime (Section 122 at 10% but probably moving to 15%). Brazil and China appear to be winners in these latest moves, but, with other mechanisms available to Trump, we don’t think these recent tariff reductions are going to lead to any dramatic increase in imports from these countries (uncertainty seems to be part of the goal under Trump’s methods).
Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc says he sees a path to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and anticipates more specifics from the U.S. administration soon. Gearing up to head back to Washington, DC next week to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and “others” next week, LeBlanc said he’s “not pessimistic about renewing the trilateral framework.” “Renewing. It doesn’t expire, it expires in 2036. But the review is not a renegotiation,” LeBlanc said. LeBlanc said two of the key factors underpinning his optimism are that when US President Trump levied his latest global tariff, he maintained the CUSMA exemption, and because American political and business leaders are “speaking up more now.” …Amid speculation that Trump wants to scrap the trilateral trade pact and strike trade deals with Canada and Mexico independently, LeBlanc said the way he sees it, Trump may pursue separate bilateral deals, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the end of CUSMA.
Twenty years after spinning out Canfor Pulp Products as a separate entity, Canfor Corp. plans to bring it back into the fold to prevent the subsidiary from sinking. …Since December, its stock has plunged to about $0.50 per share. A March 6 shareholder vote on a plan of arrangement is just one of the vital signs indicating how bad 2025 was for the forestry sector in general, and BC forestry companies in particular. …But B.C. has been particularly hard hit with sawmill and pulp mill closures due to its fibre constraints and higher operating costs. The most recent high-profile mill closure in BC was the Domtar pulp mill in Crofton at the end of December. BC pulp mills rely on wood chips from sawmills to produce pulp. But so many sawmills have permanently shuttered in B.C. in the last few years that pulp mills now struggle to find enough fibre to run their mills.
On Dec. 2, 2025, Domtar announced it would permanently close Crofton’s nearly 70-year-old mill citing a lack of affordable fibre in BC and rising cost of materials. In response, the Municipality of North Cowichan created a Community Transition Table to coordinate union leadership, worker support and discussions on the future of the mill site. …The Discourse has compiled a timeline of major events at the Crofton mill to help understand the historical context of the latest mill closure. …1957: The mill opens and BC Forest Products (BCFP) told the citizens of Crofton it would employ 300 people and have an annual payroll of $1.5 million. Crofton was chosen as the location for the mill after an “extensive” three year survey by BCFP found the Cowichan River had adequate water supply for the mill. 1963: BCFP announced an $18.5 million expansion of the Crofton mill to expand the capacity to produce paper for its second newsprint machine.
EAR FALLS, Ontario — No news is not good news when it comes to the future of the sawmill in Ear Falls. Mayor of the community Kevin Kahoot says he’s supposed to talk with Interfor, the owner of the mill, this week. “We have regular conversations in the last few months…every couple of weeks,” says Kahoot. “It’s been kind of status quo recently. They keep pushing markets and tariffs and those kinds of things. But I don’t see a lot of movement maybe until springtime.” The sawmill shut down indefinitely back in October throwing 150 people out of work. [END]
New Brunswick royalty revenues have plummeted by $45 million. It’s a figure that has forestry royalties on track to come in at an historic low in the current fiscal year. And it was a decision to significantly cut royalty rates made quietly by the Holt government last July that’s behind it. That’s as the government suggests it’s a move that’s successfully sheltered the industry from curtailments and closures that are being felt across the country. …The province moved to overhaul timber royalty rates in 2022 after acknowledging its former policy of charging forestry companies a flat rate for wood cut in public forests had failed to take advantage of a two-year explosion in international lumber prices. A new system created under the former Higgs government allowed for rates to rise and fall with the prices of various wood-based commodities. “As forest product markets improve in the future, royalty rates will index upwards,” Herron said.
Fiber and glass are among the packaging substrates hardest hit by February closure and layoff announcements. Here are the North American facilities that have announced downsizing efforts:
The escalating crisis in the Middle East could extend transport times for Finnish forest industry products to Asia by several weeks. At the same time, freight costs may rise, and container availability could become increasingly uncertain. Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to international reporting, several major shipping lines have also paused or reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, redirecting vessels around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope on routes to Asia. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global oil trade, and disruptions there primarily push up energy prices. For Finland’s forest industry, however, access through the Suez Canal is more directly decisive. Approximately 20 percent of the forest industry’s exports go to Asia, and the majority of those shipments pass through the Suez Canal, says Maarit Lindström, Director and Chief Economist at Metsäteollisuus ry. 
The US Department of Commerce preliminarily determined that hardwood and decorative plywood from China was sold in the US at less than fair value during the period Oct. 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025, and it also made a preliminary affirmative determination of critical circumstances. Starting March 2, 2026, the publication date of the Commerce Department notice in the Federal Register, US Customs and Border Protection will begin suspending liquidation and collecting cash deposits on covered entries at the applicable rates. The notice sets an estimated weighted-average dumping margin of 187.27% for the China-wide entity and an adjusted cash-deposit rate of 185.96% for the listed producer-exporter combinations as well as for the China-wide entity. …Commerce said it plans to issue its final determination by May 10, 2026, within 75 days of the preliminary decision’s Feb. 24 signature date, after which the US International Trade Commission will decide whether the U.S. industry was materially injured by the imports.
NEOPIT, Wisconsin — A Neopit wood mill is closed Tuesday after it experienced an early morning fire. Menominee Tribal Enterprises says it lost its stacker building and associated equipment. Some lumber inventory was damaged in the fire as well. All employees are safe and no injuries were reported. Production operations are closed for the day as the organization assesses the damage and begins determining the next steps for recovery and continuity of operations. The Menominee Tribal Enterprises store and main office remain open and are operating during regular business hours.
MOSINEE, Wisconsin — About 200 employees at the Mosinee paper mill were told before their shifts this week that their jobs are at risk as Ahlstrom moves forward with a phased shutdown of key operations at the plant. Several employees, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Wausau Pilot late Wednesday that management told workers Paper Machine No. 2 will shut down June 30, with Paper Machine No. 3 and the pulp mill slated to close Sept. 30. …In the letter to suppliers, Ahlstrom said it plans to permanently close the pulp mill and idle the M2 and M3 paper machines as part of a restructuring of operations at the Mosinee facility. The company cited rising costs and limited automation at those operations as reasons for the decision. …Ahlstrom said Paper Machines No. 1 and No. 4 will continue operating at the Mosinee mill. The company also said it plans to invest in modern technologies at those remaining machines.
Statistics Canada says the economy capped off a volatile year with a contraction in the final quarter of 2025. The agency said that real gross domestic product declined 0.6% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, falling short of expectations from the Bank of Canada and most economists for flat growth. Real GDP per capita was unchanged in the fourth quarter. StatCan said the main reason for the contraction was businesses drawing down their inventories. The economy swung back and forth between gains and losses every quarter last year as sharp changes in exports tied to US tariffs drove volatility in GDP data. …The agency said real GDP rose 1.7% in 2025 overall, cooling from 2% growth in each of the previous two years and marking the slowest pace of annual growth since 2016 outside the COVID-19 pandemic. “Lower exports, particularly to the United States, were the main contributor to the slower rise in GDP in 2025”.
If enacted, the new legislation would aim to streamline tariff exclusions for goods used in home construction, help stabilize material pricing, and support efforts to expand housing supply nationwide U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D‑NV) and Chris Coons (D‑DE) have introduced legislation aimed at easing construction costs and addressing America’s housing affordability crisis by excluding key homebuilding materials from tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The Housing Tariff Exclusion Act would create a process to automatically exempt many building materials from current and future tariffs and allow importers to apply for exemptions on other essential construction inputs. The bill comes amid ongoing concerns that tariffs on imported materials such as lumber, steel, and other construction inputs have driven up costs for builders, contributing to higher home prices and exacerbating supply shortages. …The bill has garnered support from industry groups including the NAHB.
US equities tumbled on Tuesday, undoing a Monday equity comeback, as oil prices spiked again and traders began to worry the U.S.-Iran conflict could drag on longer than anticipated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,238 points, or 2.5%. If that holds, it would mark the blue-chip index’s first 1,000-point decline since April 10, 2025. The S&P 500 slipped 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.3%. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, topped $84 a barrel, up 8% Tuesday following a 6% spike Monday. WTI crude jumped 8% to above $77 a barrel after a 6% jump as well on Monday. Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander said the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most vital transit route for crude oil — is closed and that Iran would set ablaze ships attempting the route, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media.
After falling below 6%, matching their lowest level in several years, mortgage rates reversed course Monday, hitting their highest point in two weeks. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan rose 13 basis points to 6.12%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It had fallen to a recent low of 5.99% on Feb. 23 and pretty much sat there all week. The drop was welcome news as the all-important spring housing market gets underway. Potential buyers have been sidelined by high home prices and concerns over the broader economy. Mortgage rates crossing into the 5% range broke an emotional barrier for some, suggesting buyers might jump at the opportunity. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which rose back above 4% on Monday. The growing conflict with Iran caused a spike in oil prices, raising inflation worries and pushing yields higher.
Real estate professionals active in the Los Angeles market are bracing themselves for another wave of tariff-induced uncertainty following the US Supreme Court’s ruling. …Despite the Feb. 20 ruling, President Donald Trump has been adamant that he will find other avenues to impose his tariffs. Trump’s tariff policies have already caused upheaval for local businesses, and now the country’s heightened situation with tariffs will further disrupt L.A.’s real estate market, according to experts across development, manufacturing and finance. “This is a very shifting landscape for American companies,” said Ken Calligar, founder of RSG 3•D. …Garret Weyand, at Cedar Street Partners, said, “If costs are too high because of these tariffs, then projects don’t get built.” Banks will likely make borrowers increase the amount of equity so that the bank is covered in the event tariffs and inflation raise project costs.
Japan’s housing starts fell 0.4% yoy in January 2026, easing from a 1.3% drop in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 1.6% decline. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, though the pace was the mildest since July 2024. Rental housing starts declined at a slower rate (-1.5% vs -3.4% in December). Meanwhile, owner-occupied homes rebounded (6.6% vs -1.8%), as did prefabricated housing (5.1% vs -6.1%). Starts for two-by-four homes also accelerated (8.7% vs 2.8%). In contrast, built-for-sale housing fell 4.8%, reversing a 1.9% increase in December.
Since International Paper closed its mills in Liberty and Chatham counties last fall, business owners in Southeast Georgia who once made the state the largest timber exporter in the nation have been feeling acute pain. As of January, demand for timber had dropped more than 60%. …The cost of pulpwood, meanwhile, had plummeted. …Gov. Brian Kemp has carved $14 million for the timber industry in his draft budget, based on recommendations from a 
The mass timber supply chain has spent more than a decade proving the product works. …Now, research produced by Michigan State University argues that none of it matters much if the system surrounding the product isn’t built to match. Led by George Berghorn, Modular Mass Timber for Housing Construction, research published in the 
How the hell did we end up in this situation? It’s a question that everyone involved in BC’s wood products business has asked themselves during the last few years. The question doesn’t have a simple answer. Instead, there are several contributing factors that have steered the forest industry into its current mess. But two problems are of critical importance now: securing reliable fibre access and dealing calmly with the international uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s lust for world trade dominance and military supremacy. But the BC forest industry has deep roots and some of the issues which began long ago have now come home to roost. All at the same time. They’ve created a confluence of concerns. That’s evident in the silent sawmills, the scattering of a skilled workforce—and communities in crisis throughout the BC interior.
OREGON — A historic state-tribal collaboration in Oregon has stalled after a charitable foundation pulled out of a potential land deal. The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife was preparing to purchase 11,438 acres of private timberland using a federal grant. The area is about 10 miles southwest of La Grande in the Blue Mountains. The agency planned to manage the land alongside the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation — the first such collaboration in Oregon. But the landowner, the Harry A. Merlo Foundation, has withdrawn from the deal “for undisclosed reasons,” according to the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. The state wildlife department and tribes had secured $22 million in federal funding to acquire and co-manage the land. …The plan was to restore this swath of forests and meadows for elk and salmon habitat.
Drax Group is launching a strategic review of its Canadian pellet operations due to a constrained fiber market and low margins. …CEO Will Gardiner discussed the company’s changing pellet production strategy. …“Our US business is fundamentally part of our UK supply chain. That business is doing very well As you will have seen, our Canadian business is more challenged, and we’ve been talking about this for some time as margins have come down due to fiber costs rising in Canada more rapidly than indexed power prices in Asia. As we noted last year, this dynamic contributed to the decision we’ve made to close one of our pellet plants in Williams Lake towards the end of last year.” As a result, Drax is not currently expecting to commit any additional capital to the pellet production segment, including the paused pellet plant planned for development in Longview, Washington.