Donald Trump will stop short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office—plans to study trade policies with China, Canada and Mexico. In related news: the BC Business Council says tariffs will ‘expose’ rural resource jobs; and US economist Paul Krugman says Canada may be in a strong position if a trade war breaks out. In other Business news: the San Group asset sale faces headwinds; Procter & Gamble is accused of misleading consumers; Western Forest Products and Steelworkers have a new collective agreement; and Boise Cascade has a new COO—Jeff Strom.
In Forestry news: insights from Day 1 of the 80th annual Truck Loggers convention include panels on Options for BC Industry’s Future; solutions to Mitigate Wildfire Risk; and Political Insights from the Media. Meanwhile: Williams Lake First Nation chief says, ‘we need a seat at the table‘; South Carolina mill closures are impacting conservation goals; and mass timber makes headlines in Illinois; Los Angeles and Stockholm.
Finally, UBC professor Lori Daniels says Vancouver isn’t immune to a Los Angeles-like fire.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
Premier David Eby began his address to the Truck Loggers Association (TLA) Leader’s Luncheon by addressing the economic uncertainty posed by U.S. trade policies, both the existing softwood lumber duties and the proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian imports. He outlined the significant economic impact of the tariffs on BC, should they be implemented and last for four years, which is the loss of over 100,000 jobs and $60 billion in GDP. Working in concert with the rest of Canada, Eby said there are three components to BC’s response. First, retaliatory tariffs would target key U.S. political districts heavily reliant on Canadian goods. …Second, the strategy emphasizes strengthening BC’s economy by addressing bureaucratic delays, accelerating permitting processes, and improving infrastructure. …Third, the plan focuses on market diversification, with initiatives to deepen trade relationships in Asia and other international markets.
The TLA panel Public and Political Influence focused on strategies to connect the forestry sector with the public and policymakers. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, it featured Derek Nighbor of FPAC, radio host Simi Sara, and content creator Bob Kronbauer. Nighbor emphasized the need to “meet people where they are” using relatable storytelling and digital campaigns, highlighting FPAC’s efforts to counter misinformation and advocate for sustainable forestry. Sara highlighted the media’s role in making forestry narratives accessible and engaging. She critiqued the industry’s lack of outreach and urged it to embrace social media to reach younger audiences. Kronbauer underscored the power of authentic storytelling. Drawing on examples like “Potato Ty,” he urged industry professionals to use platforms like Instagram to share unfiltered stories that resonate with audiences, fostering appreciation and countering negative stereotypes.
At the TLA Conference, the Securing the Future for BC’s Forestry Contractors panel addressed critical challenges facing contractors amidst declining allowable annual cuts (AAC) and rising operational costs. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured Bob Brash, Executive Director of the TLA; Chris Duncan, Partner at MNP LLP; and Dorian Uzzell, TLA President and contractor. Brash, stepping in for Michael Armstrong, highlighted how reduced AAC and increasing costs strain contractors and communities reliant on forestry. Duncan shared insights on a project to establish a standardized framework for rate negotiations, emphasizing transparency and financial stability as vital for contractor sustainability. Uzzell provided firsthand perspectives, stressing the need for workforce development and stronger contractor representation in policy discussions.
The Politics over Lunch panel at the TLA Conference featured Rob Shaw, Richard Zussman, and moderator Vaughn Palmer, offering insights into BC’s political dynamics and their implications for forestry. The discussion focused heavily on the NDP-Green Party agreement and its announcement of a comprehensive review of forestry policies. Shaw expressed frustration with the process’s redundancy, questioning, “What in the world do you have to do another review for at this point?” Zussman described the agreement as more “political positioning than practical policy”, urging industry to actively engage in the process to ensure their concerns and advancements are recognized. The panelists emphasized that this review presents an opportunity for the sector to highlight its advancements in carbon sequestration, sustainable harvesting, and Indigenous partnerships. They urged proactive engagement with policymakers to ensure practical outcomes. The panel concluded with strategies for improving media engagement, stressing transparency, timely communication, and relatable storytelling to rebuild public trust and reshape perceptions of the forestry sector.
The Wildfire and Climate Mitigation Strategies panel at the TLA Conference brought together experts to address BC’s escalating wildfire risks and explore climate-conscious forestry solutions. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured John Davies, Jason Fisher, David Greer, and Jamie Stephen. John Davies emphasized the importance of integrating wildfire risk assessments into forestry planning and shifting from reactive firefighting to proactive measures like prescribed burns and mechanical thinning. Jason Fisher highlighted community-centred approaches, showcasing partnerships with Indigenous communities and forest enhancement initiatives that reduce wildfire risks and boost ecological resilience. David Greer provided insights into the evolution of wildfire management, stressing year-round strategies and shared responsibility through initiatives like FireSmart and risk-sharing partnerships. Jamie Stephen explored the role of bioenergy, advocating for policies that leverage forest biomass to reduce fuel loads and support rural economies while meeting climate goals. The panel underscored the need for collaboration, innovation, and sustainable investments to build resilient forests and communities.
The Our Path Forward panel at the Truck Loggers Association (TLA) Conference explored the future of BC’s forest industry, moderated by Vaughn Palmer. Jeff Bromley, Chair of the United Steelworkers Wood Council, stressed the need for collaboration, bold leadership, and revenue-sharing models with First Nations to address the industry’s challenges, including mill closures and declining annual allowable cuts. Ken Kalesnikoff, President of Kalesnikoff Lumber, highlighted his company’s shift from traditional sawmilling to value-added mass timber production. He showcased seismic-resistant structures and modular prefabricated components, emphasizing the role of innovation and government incentives in supporting rural economies and sustainable practices. Shannon Janzen of Iskum Investments shared insights on integrating Indigenous perspectives, advocating for “unlearning” outdated practices and embracing collaboration to redefine success. Dr. Michelle Corfield emphasized the need for systemic reforms, such as increased Indigenous representation and equitable revenue-sharing, to achieve reconciliation and foster economic resilience.
VANCOUVER, BC – Western Forest Products announced that its hourly employees represented by United Steelworkers Local 1- 1937 have voted to ratify a new collective agreement. The new six-year collective agreement has a retroactive effective date of June 15, 2024, will expire June 14, 2030 and provides for the following general wage increases: Year 1 – 4%, Year 2 though Year 5 – 3%, and Year 6 – greater of 3% or the rate of inflation. The new agreement also includes enhancements to certain benefits and terms of mutual interest for the USW and the Company. …Western’s President and CEO Steven Hofer said: “We are pleased that our USW-represented team members have found it meets their interests and needs. …The BC forest sector is facing many challenges, and we look forward to working together with our union colleagues to build a brighter future for our company.”
U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico is back in Trump’s crosshairs with the tariff threat. …Much of the focus has centered on autos but Canada is also the top trading partner of the U.S. for critical chemicals, an industry now bracing for the potential impact. …Mineral firms in Canada are considered domestic sources under Title III of the Defense Production Act and have received U.S. federal funding for critical minerals projects in Canada. …Canada is also the largest supplier of U.S. energy imports, including crude oil, natural gas, and electricity. …Rand Ghayad, chief economist at the Association of American Railroads, said the interconnected rail network between the U.S. and Canada is a cornerstone of North American trade, underpinning economic growth and supply chain resilience. …The inflationary effects from tariffs will take some time to materialize, as these costs will need to be passed through to end buyers.
OTTAWA — The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis in December, down from a 1.9% increase in November. …The CPI excluding food rose 2.1% in December. A temporary GST/HST break on certain goods was introduced on December 14, 2024. …The shelter component grew at a slightly slower pace in December, rising 4.5% year over year following a 4.6% increase in November. Rent prices decelerated on a year-over-year basis in December (+7.1%) compared with November (+7.7%). However since December 2021, rent prices have increased 22.1%. The mortgage interest cost index decelerated for the 16th consecutive month, reaching 11.7% year over year in December 2024, the smallest increase since October 2022 (+11.4%) as interest rates continued to rise.
Lumber prices fell toward $580 per thousand board feet, retreating from eight-week highs of $600 on January 16th, as the impending 25% tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, set to take effect on February 1st, weighed on the market. These tariffs, imposed by President Trump, will increase the cost of Canadian lumber, which is a key input for U.S. housing construction, potentially reducing demand as builders face higher material prices. The price hike could discourage housing projects, especially as the broader construction sector slows. Trump’s executive orders aimed at stimulating U.S. housing production, including efforts to lower construction costs, may further dampen demand for imported lumber by promoting domestic sourcing. As Canada is the largest supplier of U.S. lumber, the tariff’s impact on supply and demand dynamics is expected to be significant, with builders likely seeking alternatives as lumber prices rise.›
Lumber prices remained above $590 per thousand board feet in January, hovering at eight-week highs as robust demand for building materials in the US compounded with dovish expectations for Federal Reserve policy. U.S. housing starts in December surged 15.8% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million units, the highest since February 2024 and well above market expectations of 1.32 million. Although building permits fell 0.7% to 1.483 million units, they exceeded forecasts of 1.46 million. At the same time, easing core inflation from the latest CPI report reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts by mid-year, while mortgage applications jumped 33.3%, marking the largest weekly increase since 2020, as buyers sought to lock in borrowing costs despite rates exceeding 7%. Additionally, U.S. buyers stockpiled inventory ahead of a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, while existing 14.4% duties further constrained supply. [END]
Construction costs account for 64.4% of the average price of a home, according to NAHB’s most recent 
President Donald Trump’s proposal to implement significant tariffs on the country’s key trading partners could have ripple effects on the U.S. housing market. …The tariffs could drive up prices for new homes and renovations, further straining an already tight market. “The tariffs will raise the cost of materials, which could directly increase the cost of constructing new homes,” said Wayne Winegarden at Pacific Research Institute. Experts said tariffs are a tax that increases the costs of imported goods, including building materials. …Higher material and construction costs caused by the tariffs could make buying a home out of reach for many people. “The tariffs will slow down the economy and will also encourage the Federal Reserve to pursue a higher interest rate environment,” Winegarden said. …Together, the higher rates coupled with the rising cost of construction will significantly reduce housing affordability.”
U.S. home prices rose 0.4% from a month earlier in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, slightly slower than the 0.5% growth posted in November. This is according to the Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI). …On a year-over-year basis, home prices closed the 2024 calendar year up 5.4%. That was the second-smallest annual increase in a calendar year since Redfin started tracking the RHPI in 2013, only trailing 2015 (5.2%). Redfin 
A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed new residential construction in the U.S. surged by much more than anticipated in the month of December. The Commerce Department said housing starts soared by 15.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.499 million in December after tumbling by 3.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.294 million in November. …The spike by housing starts came amid a substantial rebound by multi-family starts, which skyrocketed by 61.5 percent to an annual rate of 449,000 in December after plummeting by 30.7 percent to an annual rate of 278,000 in November. Single-family starts also shot up by 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.050 million in December after surging by 7.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.016 million in November. Meanwhile, the report said building permits slid by 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.483 million in December after surging by 5.2 percent to a revised rate of 1.493 million in November.
The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 68 for the fourth quarter of 2024, up five points compared to the previous quarter. Remodelers are more optimistic about the market than they were earlier in the year, corroborated by NAHB’s recent analysis of home improvement loan applications. Demand in many parts of the country was stronger than usual for the fall season, especially demand for larger projects, with leads coming in after the uncertainty about the November elections was removed. …The Current Conditions Index averaged 75, increasing three points from the previous quarter. All three components remained well above 50 in positive territory: large remodeling projects rose eight points to 75, moderate remodeling projects increased two points to 73, and small remodeling projects inched down one point to 76. …The Future Indicators Index was 61, up six points from the previous quarter. 
