Market uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown along with economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and rising construction costs kept builder confidence firmly in negative territory in November. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 38 in November, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation. We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment. After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.