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The U.S.-Canada softwood lumber dispute stands as the most protracted trade conflict between the two countries…. An important aspect of this trade dispute is the substitutability of lumber products between the two countries. Canadian lumber imports are detrimental to the U.S. industry only when the products are substitutes. In such a scenario, the imposition of trade restrictions would have a significant influence on the domestic market…. We investigate dynamic relationships between prices for Spruce-Pine-Fir, a softwood species primarily imported from Canada, and Southern Yellow Pine, one of the most popular softwood species domestically produced in the U.S…. Our empirical findings indicate that within the +/-3.4% price differential band, the two lumber products demonstrate a higher degree of substitutability.
- In related news Wood Central’s Jason Ross: Canadian and US Lumber Compete Head to Head Just 16% of the Time
BRUSSELS — The EU and Canada will use a landmark summit next month to announce an expansive new partnership, ranging from breaking down digital trade barriers to joint support for Ukraine and investing in fighting wildfires. “The world is rapidly changing with unprecedented geopolitical challenges as well as challenges across trade, energy, technology, climate, and resources,” reads a joint statement. …The EU and Canada have been seeking to shore up their strategic ties as they grapple with the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war. …The two sides plan to say at their summit in Montreal that they want to speed up investment in critical mineral projects, strengthen supply chains, and improve supply security, including by stockpiling critical resources to mitigate “market fluctuations and geopolitical impacts.” …Ottawa and Brussels will also announce the joint purchase of 50 De Havilland water bombers, to be ready for use in Canada and Europe in 2030 to fight wildfires.
Plaintiffs led by the Canadian government will appeal the Court of International Trade’s July 27 ruling that upheld the Commerce Department’s use of a differential pricing analysis to detect masked dumping in a case challenging the 2021 administrative review of the antidumping duty order on Canadian softwood lumber, according to a Sept. 23 
President Trump’s ban on nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian goods went into effect Tuesday, marking the latest salvo in a trade war between the U.S. and its longtime ally to the north. The restrictions include Canadian dairy products, motor vehicles and many alcoholic beverages. Trump, in signing the executive orders to ban the goods, cited Canadian “discrimination” against the American equivalents. Jacob Jensen, as the American Action Forum, said the limits cover $967 million worth of Canadian imports, based on 2025 data. The president last month slapped 50 percent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian products, levies that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government matched “dollar for dollar. …Carney, meanwhile, has used the trade dispute with Trump to shift his country’s cooperative focus elsewhere. 
In an early loss for the Carney government, a federal court refused to strike down a climate lawsuit brought by Canadian youth. Justice Patrick Gleeson sided with the young people and the environmental advocates who are asking the court to hear what could be a landmark case on the federal government’s climate accountability legislation. The ruling means the environmentalists will likely get their day in court where both they and the government will get an opportunity to argue whether the Carney government must update its climate plan, formally known as the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. Back in June, three young people and two environmental groups launched a lawsuit asking the Federal Court to order Ottawa to amend its climate plan. Since the plan was first launched in 2022, the Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has eliminated key measures needed for Canada to achieve the 2030 target. 
WAHSINGTON — I read a poll earlier this month showing that 41% of Canadians see the US as “an enemy country.” The poll was conducted right after President Trump slapped 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian exports to the US. …I have no illusions that U.S.-Canada relations were idyllic before Trump took office. …But the recent turn in US-Canada relations feels different. Canada’s willingness to antagonize its far larger trading partner signals how much Canadians now fear that their economic integration with the United States was a major strategic mistake. Can the economic relationship between the two countries be repaired? …A conversation with Rohinton Medhora at McGill University… left me with three take aways. 1. Canadians are feeling frustration, anger, and trepidation. …2. Carney sees no political or strategic alternative to retaliating against the Trump tariffs. …3. Washington and Ottawa may find an off-ramp, but Canada will continue to reduce its vulnerability to US economic pressure.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – For Martin Wiegand, Canadian softwood lumber is the “champagne” of wood. His family lumber business dates back to the 1800s in Washington, D.C. Wiegand has relied on Canadian Western red cedar for years. In fact, more than half of his business deals with selling Canadian softwood to customers to build fences, pergolas, decking and siding. …But US President Trump’s tariffs are raising the price of the basic 2×4 wooden plank, making it difficult to plan how expensive inventory will be or how much his business can afford to buy. “So, it lengthens the lead time for our customers and in their projects and ordering, so it makes it a little more difficult,” he said. …“My message to Donald Trump is: Stop this. Stop. Stop the tariffs,” Wiegand said. “There’s no American sawmill jumping in and starting to produce Western reds,” Wiegand said.
The British Columbia Supreme Court has refused to approve a proposed reverse vesting transaction (RVO) for Teal-Jones Group that would have wiped out long-standing fibre supply agreements tied to TFL 46, finding that TimberWest and Domtar held proprietary interests that should not be extinguished. The Monitor argued that the sale of the Surrey Mill and TFL 46 to Gillfor Manufacturing was the best available transaction and that removing the agreements was necessary to preserve the business, but the Court found no sufficient evidence that the agreements were uneconomic or would prevent Gillfor from operating the assets. With the agreements priced at fair market value and their termination expected to cause significant prejudice to TimberWest and Domtar, the Court declined to approve the transaction unless they remained in place. …The prejudice to Domtar if the supply agreements were extinguished would be significant. 
In the face of ongoing trade disputes, including those around softwood lumber, the Government of Canada is taking decisive action to support the forest sector. We are committed to protecting workers and jobs, and giving Canadian companies the stability they need to weather short-term shocks and retool for a stronger, more diversified future. In support of that commitment, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Finance and National Revenue, today highlighted a $30-million loan to Conifex Timber Inc. through the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan (LETL) facility. The funding provided through LETL will help the company adapt to current conditions, support its workers, and build a more secure future for the community of Mackenzie, British Columbia. This support comes as the Government of Canada enhances the LETL facility to better meet the needs of Canadian employers facing continued trade uncertainty.
A comprehensive support package will fill the gap and help BC businesses affected by US tariffs produce and sell more of their products locally as well as overseas. … “President Trump’s unfair trade war is an attack on BC workers, businesses and communities – especially in our forest sector,” said Premier David Eby. “BThat’s why we’re enhancing proven programs to help BC businesses find new customers, create jobs and build a stronger, more resilient and self-reliant economy.” The support package provides new funding to existing programs:
PRINCE GEORGE — A long-standing Prince George transportation company is preparing for a major downsizing after losing a key forestry hauling contract in the wake of Canfor’s Northwood Pulp Mill closure. Excel Transportation announced it will no longer serve as a hauling contractor for Canfor, a decision the company says stems from the ongoing downturn in northern B.C.’s forestry sector rather than any concerns about performance or safety. “This is one of the most difficult announcements we’ve had to make in our company’s history,” said CEO Annie Horning in a statement. The closure of the Northwood mill earlier this year eliminated roughly 300 Canfor jobs and significantly reduced the amount of wood being moved throughout the region. With less timber available to haul, Canfor reduced the number of hauling contracts it requires and ultimately chose not to retain Excel.
Indigenous land titles, data centres and human-bear conflicts are among the top-of-mind concerns for municipal politicians, as they gather for their annual fall convention and attempt to influence the provincial government’s agenda. The Union of B.C. Municipalities convention this year is being held in Vancouver from Sept. 14 to 18. … The City of Nanaimo is calling for a ban on exporting raw logs and lumber cants. A cant is a raw log with its bark removed. The motion identifies a lack of adequate and affordable wood fibre supply as a key factor in the continued curtailment or permanent closure of B.C. sawmills and pulp mills. Over the past five years, on average, about 3.2 million cubic metres of raw logs have been exported. The ban would be to “ensure that forests harvested in B.C. from Crown land and private managed forest lands are processed in B.C., encouraging value-added manufacturing in B.C. and supporting employment in B.C.’s forest industry,” the motion states.
THUNDER BAY — The Ontario government is investing more than $2.5 million to advance major upgrades at Thunder Bay Pulp and Paper, as well as two additional projects in Northwestern Ontario that will increase the industry’s use of mill by-products and underused forest biomass. The upgrades will help increase the forest sector’s production and capacity, protecting over 700 direct jobs and more than 3,350 indirect jobs. This Forest Biomass Program funding is part of the government’s plan to protect Ontario forestry workers. …Ontario is investing more than $2.4 million to plan boiler and chemical plant upgrades at Thunder Bay Pulp and Paper, a critical anchor mill in Northwestern Ontario’s forest economy. …AUX Energy is receiving $92,500 to develop plans for a biomass-powered generator project that will increase energy security in Fort Frances. …Weyerhaeuser is receiving $32,650 for a study of production line upgrades to reduce costs while improving efficiency and product quality.
Imported hardwood timber and lumber could be the next wood products to face a US national security tariff, with the Commerce Department’s one-year deadline to report back to the White House on those imports running out at the end of today in Washington. That is according to the proclamation President Donald Trump signed a year ago this week, which requested the update so he could decide whether the phased import duty that Commerce recommended in July last year is warranted. “By October 1, 2026, the Secretary shall provide the President with an update on imports of hardwood timber and lumber, their markets, and the domestic industry,” the proclamation instructs.” …Trump put off the planned increases to 30 and 50 per cent by a year at the end of last year, with the amended proclamation citing “productive negotiations of agreements with multiple countries” on wood products.
The US and China reached new trade and investment arrangements during President Xi Jinping’s September 2026 state visit to Washington, including the relaxation of tariffs affecting lumber and other wood products exported from the US to China. …According to a September 25, 2026 
WASHINGTON — President Trump’s trade war with Canada could intensify the headwinds Republicans are navigating ahead of the November midterms, with its effects poised to reverberate in northern battleground states with crucial Senate races. …The escalating beef with Canada stands to heighten voters’ economic worries and add to the GOP’s political challenge in dead-heat races, analysts said. …Trump’s new import bans on some Canadian goods are set to begin next week, a response to retaliatory tariffs Canada levied earlier this month. …Five of the nine states most likely to decide Senate control border Canada — Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire and Maine. Two more, Texas and Iowa, also do substantial trade with Canada. …“What’s weighing on the top of people’s minds is this general affordability crisis … and they realize that tariffs are another factor that is impacting affordability.”
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service published a final rule in the 
US Customs and Border Protection agents spent four days investigating Auckland timber processor Hermpac after a complaint from the US Lumber Coalition. The finding was uncomfortable. A wholesaler on America’s east coast had been routing Canadian-origin wood through New Zealand for processing before shipping it into the US. …The purpose, according to the investigation, was to dodge the punishing duties the US imposes on Canadian softwood lumber. This is the first confirmed case of a New Zealand processor being directly investigated by US Customs in connection with the Trump-era tariff regime. …The fight is no longer just about headline rates. It is now about who inspects your paperwork, and whether the value you add in New Zealand counts. …The practical takeaway is unglamorous but urgent. Review and document your origin classifications now, before a competitor files a complaint, not after Customs agents turn up.
American sawmilling is adding capacity faster than it is using it, with 2.1 billion board feet due in the South by 2028, net of every closure already announced. That is according to Forisk, the forest industry consultancy, which tracks more than 2,350 North American mills and logged fifteen sawmill projects in the third quarter alone. “We searched for a buyer… for our mill in Montrose, Colorado,” president Jim Neiman said. Twain Lumber met the opposite condition in Virginia, buying a mill that had been idle since 2024. Twelve of the fifteen projects added capacity, and the three that took it out were all Canadian, with Canfor closing Fox Creek in Alberta for good and Western Forest Products holding Cowichan Bay in British Columbia down since May. Canadian producers have worked both sides of that trade for a decade, and West Fraser shut down 100 Mile House in British Columbia last year while expanding its Henderson facility in Texas.
Washington, D.C. — A steep decline in hardwood exports, the growing popularity of man-made wood alternatives and surging fuel prices have been battering the American hardwood lumber industry. In Kentucky, 78 wood industry facilities, mostly sawmills, have closed in the last four years, according to the University of Kentucky Department of Forestry and Natural Resources. The U.S. relationship with China has been a major source of the industry’s problems and a focus of proposals to address them. China once bought about half of U.S. hardwood exports, according to the Hardwood Federation. Then, eight years ago, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on imports from China, and China retaliated with tariffs on hardwood and other American imports. The reciprocal tariffs were eventually rolled back, but China’s purchases of American hardwood never returned to their previous levels. …advocates are pushing for lawmakers to pass legislation for $12 billion in agriculture relief, including $200 million for the hardwood industry.
The United States and the state of North Carolina have filed a 
Timber, furniture, and textile workers will have a new weapon against wood products shut out of the United States and Canada, after Federal Parliament passed laws handing a renamed Anti-Dumping Commission the job of investigating import surges. That is according to the Timber, Furnishing and Textiles Union, which said on Thursday that the vote caps a campaign of more than a decade. “When the US, Canada, the EU, China and other major economies shut products out of their markets, those goods don’t disappear,” said Leo Skourdoumbis, the union’s acting national secretary. …Canada placed a provisional 25% safeguard surtax on certain imported wood cabinets and vanities from 31 July, the example the union holds up for Australia. …The Albanese Government will rename the Anti-Dumping Commission the Australian Trade Remedies Commission under the Customs Amendment Bill 2026. Dumping, subsidy, and safeguard cases will go before that one body, which reports through Industry Minister Tim Ayres.
From capacity shifts and trade flow developments to network disruptions and sustainability innovations, the container shipping landscape continues to evolve at pace. Join Patrick Hore, Global Head of Energy, Chemicals & Raw Materials at Maersk, as he delivers an essential market update on the forces currently shaping global supply chains. In his session, “Latest from the Container Shipping Market: What Do You Need to Know for Your Supply Chains?“, Patrick will explore: Volume trends across key global trade routes; Fleet capacity outlook and what it means for shippers; Current network disruptions and future scenarios; and Technical and sustainability developments transforming container shipping. Whether you’re responsible for sourcing, logistics, operations or strategy, this session will provide valuable insights to help you navigate an increasingly complex shipping environment. Join Patrick Hore and an outstanding line-up of industry experts at the CELCO Conference.