Kevin Mason
North American lumber markets have enjoyed a bright start to the year, with meaningful price appreciation recorded across virtually all regions and species this month. SYP 2x4s have been the standout performer, with prices increasing by $63 (to $425) since the beginning of January, while S-P-F 2x4s are up by $38 (at $460) over the same period. Lagged housing start data have clouded insights regarding current lumber demand, but we have seen (or heard) little to suggest that underlying demand has improved dramatically over the past couple of months. Instead, we believe that prior supply curtailments coupled with a seasonal inventory build/rebuild has been the catalyst for the recent run in lumber prices.
Given that recent price increases do not appear to be driven by an uptick in lumber consumption, we suspect that momentum will soon fizzle out, and the deep freeze currently gripping large swathes of North America will likely see trading slow dramatically. These weather events typically stymie lumber consumption on job sites but this is often partially offset by a similar hit to supply, particularly in the U.S. South where the majority of mills are exposed to the elements (in previous winter storms workers have been unable to get to mills, logging trucks are unable to deliver, etc.). …As for panels, pulp and paper prices…
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Mark Carney and the premiers said Thursday they’re maintaining a united front under the long shadow of the upcoming negotiations for the review of North America’s key free trade agreement. …Carney updated the premiers on Ottawa’s plans for the coming review and committed to monthly meetings to update the premiers once CUSMA review talks officially begin. But Carney was tight-lipped on trade strategy. …In the meantime, Trump’s sector-specific tariffs continue to damage key Canadian industries such as steel, aluminum and softwood lumber. New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt said she wasn’t seeing a lot of US “movement or interest” in resolving the softwood lumber dispute, meaning a deal on duties outside of the CUSMA review process is unlikely. “We are constantly looking at ways to make it clear to the U.S. administration how the U.S. lumber producers are suffering under a low price,” Holt said.
Canada’s forest industry is being dismantled in plain sight. …For decades, Canada built its forest economy around a single export market and a narrow set of commodity products. That strategy has now been exposed as dangerously fragile. Our closest trading partner has proven unreliable, and the cost of over-dependence is being paid by rural workers and regions across the country. Canada does not have a forestry problem. We have a market diversification problem. Ironically, today’s global uncertainty has created a once-in-a-generation opportunity. …Capital is mobile, and companies are actively looking for stable jurisdictions in which to build new production facilities. Canada can and should be at the top of that list—but we need to build the foundational infrastructure to make this happen. …The federal government’s new Canadian Forest Sector Transformation Task Force opens a critical window to address structural weaknesses in Canada’s forest economy. 
OTTAWA — Canada’s premiers are set for two days of huddling in the nation’s capital with the economy, affordability and trade expected to be high on the agenda. The premiers meet with Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday, and will want to show a united “Team Canada” front as trade tensions rise again with Canada’s largest trading partner. The meetings come a year after U.S. President Donald Trump assumed office and hit Canada with blistering tariffs, and just ahead of negotiations to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement, due for its first formal review this summer. Trump threatened Canada in recent days with 100% across-the-board tariffs on exports, which would land on top of the sectors already hit by steep U.S. tariffs, such as steel, softwood lumber and vehicles. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the premiers will show they stand united as the whole Canadian economy remains under attack.
COFI 2026 CEO Panel to Tackle the Forest Sector’s Future: The 
Cherie Whelan has been named the new chief executive officer of the B.C. Forest Safety Council. She takes over on April 1 from Rob Moonen, who announced his retirement in October. Whelan served as CEO of the Newfoundland & Labrador Construction Safety Association for two years and previously held the position of director of SAFE Companies at B.C. Forest Safety Council. The Nanaimo-based council delivers safety training and advisory services to British Columbia’s forest industry.
The Regional District of Nanaimo board will plead with fellow municipalities to pressure the B.C. and Canadian governments to prohibit raw log exports. At the Jan. 27 RDN board meeting, Paul Manly, City of Nanaimo director, proposed a resolution for the upcoming Association of Vancouver Island and Coastal Communities conference, asking B.C. local governments to call on senior government to “ban the export of raw logs and lumber cants from B.C. to ensure that forests harvested [on] Crown land and private-managed forest lands are processed in B.C.…” The resolution passed and will be brought before AVICC. Should it pass there, it would be forwarded to the Union of B.C. Municipalities. Manly …pointed to recent mill closures on the Island, with a key factor being “lack of accessible and affordable fibre”. …Leanne Salter, Coombs area director, said she thought the resolution needed to be tweaked.
A federal task force announced earlier this month will attempt to save Canada’s stricken forest industry from further decline through product and market diversification. While the support will no doubt be welcomed by the industry, in BC the more immediate need is access to timber. Canada’s forestry sector has been pummeled by a one-two punch of low lumber prices, and US duties on softwood lumber. The situation is particularly dire in BC where an integrated industry of lumber, remanufacturing, pulp and pellet mills has been collapsing like a row of dominos. …The industry is in crisis, a number of speakers said at the 
VICTORIA — The president of the Tahltan Central Government, Kerry Carlick, said British Columbia shouldn’t change its Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, just as the First Nation and the provincial government celebrate a landmark agreement based on the legislation. Carlick said it is not a “good idea to take anything away from DRIPA,” adding that “if anything, it should be strengthened.” Carlick was speaking at an event with deputy premier Niki Sharma where they co-signed an agreement to share mineral tax revenue from the Eskay Creek mine. The ceremony came after the provincial government issued an environmental assessment certificate to Eskay Creek Mining Ltd. to restart gold and silver mining after a first-of-its kind collaborative assessment process with the First Nation under DRIPA. The provincial government has said it plans to revise the act after a series of court rulings around Aboriginal title, responding specifically to those decisions.
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The Municipality of North Cowichan says it is preparing for the possibility of another mill closure in Chemainus, while hoping it can be avoided. Western Forest Products announced Friday it is extending curtailment at the Chemainus sawmill, affecting about 150 workers. Mayor Rob Douglas said the priority is protecting jobs and preparing for potential financial impacts. “We’re going to be looking at impacts on our tax base, especially with the municipality already seeing the effects of the Crofton mill closure this year,” Douglas said. “We’ll prepare for the potential closure of the Chemainus mill in 2027.” Douglas said a permanent closure in Chemainus would affect future finances, but not to the same extent as the Crofton mill shutdown. “Western Forest Products has three sites, and with two of them operating that will continue to provide a significant portion of our industrial tax revenue,” he said.
The unravelling of our trade relationship with the US compels us to act decisively. The chaotic diplomacy of the Trump Administration should encourage Canada to build up economic capacity where Canadians possess both agency and an existing industrial base to rely upon. This capacity‑building goal dovetails with the inherent purpose of the Sustainable Jobs Action Plan (SJAP). …Acting on these priorities, industry can direct its capital and follow its own strategic objectives, but it will do so in an environment that better reflects Canada’s long‑term economic goals. The SJAP can play a pivotal role. …One can look to the forestry sector. …Forestry faces an existential crisis from the 45% U.S. duties and tariffs imposed on Canadian lumber. …However, the sector also holds immense potential for manufacturing a variety of high value‑added products while also being a renewable resource key to decarbonizing construction.
VIETNAM — The United States has decided to postpone the tariff increase on certain finished wood products, including upholstered chairs, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets, from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. The postponement of the tax increase on some finished wood products helps Vietnamese businesses temporarily avoid the policy shock at the beginning of 2026. However, this is not a sign of loosening, but rather a tactical retreat, requiring the wood industry to be more proactive and cautious in policy planning and restructuring the overall development strategy of the entire industry. …Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice President of the Vietnam Wood and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), commented that if postponing the tariff increase is considered an “opportunity,” then extreme caution is needed. In reality, tariff pressure has spread throughout the entire supply chain, from domestic manufacturers to importers and retail systems in the US.
Montana’s forestry industry is entering this year with more questions than answers, from low lumber prices to high housing costs for workers to questions about tariffs, but there is room for strategic adaptation. That’s according to an economist who gave an update on the sector in the 2026 Montana Economic Report, put out by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. …Scott said the number of people employed in the private sector in forestry in Montana statewide has dropped in 2025. …His main points are that while timber harvests are down, the federal government is making a push to increase harvests. …He said the Trump administration’s tariff policy remains another wildcard. “A combination of lumber and trade-related tariffs has been implemented to bolster domestic demand, by raising the cost of Canadian lumber… it is still too early to tell whether these measures will meaningfully shift trade flows.”
ALEXANDRIA, Va.
Australia’s forestry industry says cheap imported timber products are flooding the local market and taking up increased space in local homes and buildings. South Australian Forest Products Association (SAFPA) chief executive Nathan Paine said international trade conditions, fuelled by US tariffs, were responsible for imports reaching Australia at about half the price of local timber. This timber includes laminated veneer lumber (LVL) — a construction product that competes with locally grown radiata pine. …Analysis from Forest and Wood Products Australia showed LVL imports had increased 63% in 2025 compared to a year earlier. …Primary Industries Minister Clare Scriven said the state government could stand behind its past support for the timber industry. Housing Industry Australia chief executive of industry and policy Simon Croft said the pandemic’s trade disruptions had caused a spike in construction costs.