Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Canadian cabinet and furniture makers warn of ‘blood bath’ as Trump tariffs bite

By Mark Rendell
The Globe and Mail
October 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Alain Ouzilleau, owner of Groupe Cabico, spent millions upgrading his two factories in Quebec and Ontario into state-of-the-art facilities shipping around $100-million worth of high-end kitchen cabinets to the US each year. Almost overnight, that business has been thrown into jeopardy. …“We have very long-term loyal customers,” Mr. Ouzilleau said. “But the 50% that is planned to be effective January 1st is just a death sentence.” …Hundreds of other Canadian cabinet and furniture makers also stand to lose their key export business, with limited ability to expand in a crowded domestic market. …What started as tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles has expanded to include copper and lumber, with a tariff on heavy trucks slated to come into force in November. The Trump administration is also conducting investigations into aircraft, semiconductors and industrial machinery, among other industries, suggesting more tariffs are on the horizon. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

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Lumber Futures Drop Amid Weak US Housing Market and Tariff Measures

Trading Economics
October 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell below $610 per thousand board feet, their lowest level since October 8 and down 12% from a three-year high in early August, as a slowing US housing market outweighed potential supply curbs from tariffs. August building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.33 million, the lowest since May 2020, while housing starts fell 8.5%, marking the fourth-lowest reading in over five years. Earlier this month, the US imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian lumber, with the Trump administration stating it aims to expand domestic timber harvesting and reduce reliance on foreign lumber. Looking ahead, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate construction and home buying and encourage homeowners to borrow for repairs and renovations, the largest driver of lumber demand. However, signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation suggest demand may remain subdued.

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Canada Opens $700M Loan Program for Lumber Industry Hit by US Tariffs

By JP Alegre
The Deep Dive
October 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Canadian government has opened applications for a $700 million loan guarantee program that helps lumber companies weather mounting US tariffs that have pushed some firms into bankruptcy. The Business Development Bank of Canada announced the program’s launch Wednesday, allowing softwood lumber businesses to access up to $20 million per ownership group in financing and letters of credit through their primary financial institutions. …The cascading trade penalties have forced several forestry operations into bankruptcy protection, including British Columbia’s Teal-Jones Group and San Industries Ltd. The US market absorbs roughly 90% of Canadian lumber exports, leaving the industry vulnerable to American trade actions. …The trade conflict over softwood lumber stretches back more than 40 years, making it one of the most enduring commercial disputes between the neighboring countries.

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Canada’s Raw Materials Price Index Rose 1.7% in September

Statistics Canada
October 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Prices of products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), increased 0.8% month over month in September and gained 5.5% year over year. Meanwhile, prices of raw materials purchased by manufacturers operating in Canada, as measured by the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), increased 1.7% month over month and rose 8.4% year over year. …Prices for lumber and other wood products declined 4.4% in September, after two straight monthly increases. The decrease was caused by falling softwood lumber prices (-10.7%), the largest decrease since June 2022. In August 2025, the United States announced a significant increase to the duties it levies on Canadian softwood lumber.

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Canada’s new home construction up 14% in September from previous month

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
October 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The six-month trend in housing starts increased (4.1%) in September (277,147 units), according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Actual housing starts were up 19% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, with 22,375 units recorded in September, compared to 18,806 units in September 2024. The year-to-date total was 178,033, up 5% from the same period in 2024. The total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was up 14% in September (279,234 units) compared to August (244,543 units). “The six-month trend in housing starts was pushed higher in September, driven by significantly higher monthly starts in Ontario, Québec, and the Prairie provinces. Notably, Montréal and Toronto were responsible for more than a quarter of the total monthly starts nationally, primarily due to increased rental apartments starts,” said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist.

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Lumber Futures Price Climbs as Trump’s 10% Tariff Takes Effect

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
October 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures have risen about 19% from a low hit in early September, driven by the production cuts, hopes that declining interest rates will revive the housing market and Trump’s import tax. The 10% levy is on top of steep duties on Canadian lumber, which are adjusted annually in a heavily litigated process that is the result of a decades-long trade dispute. Those antidumping and countervailing duties rose in August to about 35% for most Canadian producers, up from roughly 15%. Canada’s sawmills are by far the largest source of softwood lumber from beyond U.S. borders, fulfilling about 24% of domestic consumption last year. Other significant importers of softwood lumber, the type used to frame houses, include Brazil and European countries such as Germany and Sweden. Homebuilders argue that import taxes will raise construction costs. U.S. lumber producers and timberland owners, however, urged Trump to enact a tariff.

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Lumber Futures Rise Amid Looming Tariffs

Trading Economics
October 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet in mid-October, approaching monthly highs as markets priced in tighter near-term supply and looming trade restrictions. Under newly announced US Section 232 tariffs that take effect on October 14th, imported softwood lumber will face a 10% duty and finished wood goods such as cabinets and furniture will face higher levies, prompting importers to front-load purchases and draw down inventories. Domestic output is also constrained as sawmills run cautiously after years of underinvestment, logging curbs in sensitive regions and slow capacity restarts have limited production. The cost and delay of switching suppliers is material given that Canadian lumber, which supplies much of US demand, already carries elevated antidumping and countervailing duties, intensifying the supply squeeze.

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North American Lumber: Production Outpaces Demand Amid Housing Headwinds

ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
October 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

North America’s softwood lumber market looks likely to end 2025 no more settled than it was at the beginning. Producers and buyers alike continue navigating a landscape shaped by fluctuating demand, shifting trade patterns, and an uncertain housing outlook. Despite modest production declines in early 2025, the lumber market remains oversupplied. Mills across the US and Canada are contending with high inventories built up earlier in the year. Expectations of tariff hikes spurred an early rush of exports from Canada to the US, flooding the market while demand was soft. However, in the first half of 2025 softwood lumber exports from Canada to the US declined, while US imports from Europe in the first seven months of 2025 increased by 6% year-over-year. Underlying these supply pressures is a US housing market stuck in the doldrums. August saw an 8.5% decline in overall housing starts, with single-family construction down nearly 7%.

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Trump’s Wood Tariffs Are Coming. Who Will Be Hit Hardest

By Ilena Peng
Bloomberg Economics
October 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on imported lumber and wood products that his administration says are needed to protect the US economy and boost domestic manufacturing. Starting Oct. 14, softwood lumber will face 10% duties, while kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and other finished wood goods will be hit with 25% tariffs that rise further in January. The biggest blow will fall on Canada, the US’s top lumber supplier, whose lumber exports are already subject to separate duties totaling 35.19%. …Though Canada dominates exports of lumber to the US, many other countries export wood products to the US. The Section 232 tariffs on lumber and wood products affect them in varying ways; some countries benefit from trade deals with the US that cap the rates, and others bear the full brunt. …Though lumber accounts for less than 20% of building costs, the National Association of Homebuilders has long said that restrictions on Canadian lumber translate to higher construction costs. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]

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Lumber Futures Ease from Near 2-Month Highs

Trading View
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell toward $600 per thousand board feet, easing from the near two-month high of $615.50 on October 3rd as the prior speculative rally reversed amid softer demand, looming tariff implementation, and inventory rebalancing. Demand has weakened as homebuilders and material buyers pull back amid higher construction costs and tighter mortgage affordability that curb new housing starts. At the same time, many market participants had frontloaded purchases ahead of the US 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood lumber and higher duties on wood furniture and cabinets effective October 14th, creating a short-term inventory overhang that reduced fresh order flow. On the supply side, domestic sawmills have ramped up shipments to cover earlier shortages, while Canadian exporters remain constrained by heavy anti-dumping and countervailing duties that limit flexibility, easing prompt tightness. [END]

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Tariffs widen trade gap, pressure mounts on Bank of Canada

By Liezel Once
Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s international trade deficit swelled to $6.3 billion in August, its second-largest shortfall on record, as new United States tariffs took a heavy toll on key exports and injected fresh volatility into cross-border flows. The latest figures, released by Statistics Canada, show how US trade policy continues to affect Canadian exporters and make the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision more complicated. Exports in August fell 3% by value and 3.2% in volume, led by sharp declines in copper ore and lumber shipments, both of which were hit by new US tariffs. …Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.9%, buoyed by higher consumer goods, a sign of resilient household demand, even as business investment remained soft. …Exports to the US, Canada’s largest trading partner, fell 3.4% in August after three consecutive monthly gains, and were down 8% year-over-year. Exports to non-US destinations edged up 1.8% from a year ago but slipped 2% from July.

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Canada’s August trade deficit widens more than forecast as exports drop

By Promit Mukherjee
Reuters in Trading View
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened in August to C$6.32 billion ($4.53 billion) as exports fell faster in both value and volume than the rise in imports on a monthly basis, official government statistics showed on Tuesday. The trade deficit in August was led by drop in exports not only to its top trading partner the U.S. but also because its shipments to the rest of the world shrank in the month. Canada’s international trade numbers took a beating early this year as US President Trump imposed sectoral tariffs on the country, forcing businesses to reorient supply chain from its biggest trading partner. But the shift has been volatile and erratic. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the August trade deficit at C$5.55 billion, up from an upwardly revised C$3.82 billion in the prior month. Total exports dropped by 3% while imports increased 0.9%, StatsCan said.

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Trump has his eye on Canadian forestry stocks. You should, too

By David Berman
The Globe and Mail
October 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

It’s hard to find anything good to say about Canadian forestry stocks right now. Some of the biggest names in the sector have been on a downward slide for the past three years. … But the onslaught of grim news has highlighted some bargains. …Okay, the definition of attractive rests on an assumption that risk-averse investors might not want to embrace just yet: Despite Mr. Trump’s bluster, the US still needs Canadian lumber in a big way to feed its lumber-intensive home construction industry. Says who? The National Association of Home Builders, for one. …Some analysts believe that US forestry companies will struggle to replace Canadian softwood. Ben Isaacson, at Bank of Nova Scotia, estimates that US producers would have to build 50 new mills to become fully independent of Canadian lumber. Just two companies build the specialized equipment required in mills. They would struggle to supply even two mills a year. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

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How are increased antidumping duties on Canadian lumber shipments to US likely to impact the market?

RISI Fastmarkets
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Although we are skeptical how effective the C$500 million in “transition” funding will be, the C$700 million in loan guarantees, which are clearly designed as a short-term lifeline for companies to weather the storm, seem pretty meaningful to the Canadian industry at first glance. …If Canadian producers were to simply absorb the incremental duty rate increase, using today’s FOB price for most Canadian softwood lumber and last year’s export volumes to the US translates to a “just pay it” cost of C$1.6-1.7 billion in additional duty payments over the next 12 months. Canadian mill operators are not in a financial position to simply absorb an additional 21-percentage-point increase in duties, so this is an extreme estimate of the true cost. Mills will curtail output rather than continue producing at heavy losses until prices adjust accordingly. Additionally, there is usually some degree of passthrough from the buyer to the seller.

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U.S. Section 232 Tariffs on Lumber: Navigating the New Trade Landscape

By Audrey Dixon
ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The softwood lumber trade dispute between the US and Canada, which has led to ever-higher US import duties on Canadian lumber, has lasted for decades. …Canadian lumber has the backing NAHB, which sees lumber tariffs as exacerbating high costs for builders and worsening the US housing affordability crisis. There is currently a “Wall of Wood” in the US, after Canadian producers increased shipments to the US in anticipation of the hike to existing ADD and CVD duties in August. Expectations that a large increase in duties would force the closure of Canadian sawmills, lead to shortages, and a boost in lumber prices, overlooked the current weak US demand for lumber, according to Matt Layman. …As US homebuilders now face additional tariff-driven costs, including a 50% tariff on cabinets and vanities, it’s hard to see the lumber demand situation improving, even if more Canadian suppliers have to curtail production or close sawmills.

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Lumber Futures Prices Rise on Trump’s New Tariff

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures prices are trading higher after President Trump slapped a 10% tariff on wood imports. Lumber prices have been on a rollercoaster this year, lifted by higher import taxes and tugged lower by the deteriorating housing and construction markets. …Trump’s executive order said the additional 10% tariff, which will also raise the price of lumber from European suppliers like Germany and Sweden, is aimed at protecting domestic sawmills. …Analysts expect the tariff to benefit domestic sawyers and timberland owners, such as Weyerhaeuser and PotlatchDeltic, at the expense of competitors north of the border, who have been losing US market share because of the duties, challenges supplying their sawmills with logs and the abundance of cheap US pine. “Canadian lumber producers’ cash costs should further increase, resulting in capacity closures and a tightening of lumber supply-demand dynamics,” said Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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U.S. lumber tariffs could add $8,900 to cost of building a home: USB Group

Seeking Alpha
September 30, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The Trump administration’s latest tariffs on housing materials could raise the average cost of building a single-family home by nearly $9,000, according to a report Tuesday from UBS. Research analyst John Lovallo said the new levies include “an incremental 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood timber and lumber imports, as well as 25% levies on kitchen cabinets, vanities and upholstered wood products.” UBS estimates the lumber tariff will add about $720 per home, while cabinet and vanity tariffs could tack on another $280. Upholstered wood products were not included in the calculation because they are generally purchased by homeowners rather than builders. “As a result, we now estimate the total tariff impact on the cost to construct an average home at approximately $8.9K,” Lovallo wrote. …“Importantly, we continue to believe this cost impact will be spread throughout the entire housing value chain, with the builders perhaps best positioned to push back on suppliers,” he said.

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Trump’s new timber tariffs could drive up housing costs

By Catherine Baab
Quartz Media
September 30, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump ordered fresh tariffs on softwood timber, lumber, and wood furnishings, even as housing groups warn the move could drive up construction costs and furniture-industry advocates said the levies would lead to US job losses. The tariffs may, however, prove more legally durable than Trump’s reciprocal country-by-country penalties because they fall under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, the same legal tool the White House has used to justify duties on steel and aluminum. …The measures hit Canada especially hard because the country already faces duties of more than 35%, a result of recent but separate trade initiatives. Publicly traded lumber producers most directly exposed include Canada’s West Fraser Timber, Canfor, and Interfor. In the US, Weyerhaeuser, Boise Cascade, and Louisiana-Pacific are the closest listed peers, with stocks prices that often move in step with lumber tariffs and demand. US-based furniture retailers may also experience pain, with many dependent on foreign wood.

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From Steel to Spices: Why Derivative Tariffs Deserve Every Importer’s Attention

By Kelsey Christensen, Mark Ludwikowski and Kevin Williams
By Clark Hill
October 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Section 232 tariffs were once seen as a fortress for US metals. Yet, that fortress now casts a much longer shadow. Companies far removed from the steel and aluminum sector could soon find themselves ensnared in tariffs they never imagined, thanks to the inclusion process for “derivative” products. The Trump Administration has steadily expanded Section 232 authority well beyond their original steel and aluminum targets, to copper, automobiles, trucks, lumber, and even wooden cabinets. These tariffs, which range from 10% (for lumber) to 50% (for steel and aluminum), are layered on top of normal import duties. At first glance, these measures appeared to strike only those industries handling raw materials. But in 2025 the Administration sought to close what it saw as a loophole: downstream products containing tariffed metals that could enter duty-free. As a result, section 232 tariffs were imposed on the raw material and a finite list of derivative products.

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Ikea boosts US production as Trump hits furniture makers with hefty tariffs

By Richard Milne
The Financial Times
October 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

Ikea is increasing the amount of products it makes in the US as the world’s largest home furnishings retailer comes under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on furniture and kitchen cabinets. The flat-pack retailer, which made revenues of $5.5bn in the US last year, currently produces only about 15% of products that it sells in the US domestically. That compares with 75% local production in Europe and 80% in Asia. “We want to continue to expand in the US and Canada — how do we optimise a good supply set-up where we secure the right access to materials, to components, to production? That’s very long-term work that we’re doing,” Jon Abrahamsson Ring, chief executive of Inter Ikea. Trump imposed tariffs of between 10% and 50% on imports of foreign furniture and wood products. Ikea, which is responsible for about 1% of total industrial production, is set to take a significant hit. 

In related news in Fox Business: Ikea raises prices as Trump’s furniture tariffs hit retailer

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As new tariffs take effect, US consumers footing more than half the burden

ByElizabeth Schulze and Bill Hutchinson
ABC News
October 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

With new tariffs taking effect on furniture and lumber, an analysis released by Goldman Sachs finds American consumers are paying for more than half of the cost of the levies imposed by President Donald Trump. In a research note to its clients, the global investment and banking giant said U.S. consumers will absorb 55% of tariff costs by the end of this year. American businesses would pay 22% of the costs, foreign exporters would absorb 18% and 5% would be evaded, according to the Goldman Sachs analysis. Consumers could end up paying 70% of the cost by the end of next year, the report said. “At the moment, however, US businesses are likely bearing a larger share of the costs because some tariffs have just gone into effect and it takes time to raise prices on consumers and negotiate lower import prices with foreign suppliers,” the analysis adds. 

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Amid Market Challenges, US Builder Expectations Rise in October

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Even as builders continue to grapple with market and macroeconomic uncertainty, sentiment levels posted a solid gain in October as future sales expectations surpassed the 50-point breakeven mark for the first time since last January. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 37 in October, up five points from September and the highest reading since April, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI gain in October is a positive signal for 2026 as NAHB’s forecast is for single-family housing starts to gain ground next year. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from just above 6.5% at the start of September to 6.3% in early October. Combined with anticipated further easing by the Fed, builders expect a slightly improving sales environment, albeit one in which persistent supply-side cost factors remain a challenge.

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Better Growth, Larger Deficits: CBO Fiscal Outlook

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a key nonpartisan score keeper that measures the effects of policy changes by the Federal Government. With several policy changes since January of this year, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), stricter immigration, and higher tariffs, the CBO updated its economic projections through 2028. Primarily, the CBO forecasts higher growth in the coming year with higher deficits also around the corner. The updated CBO view of the economy projects lower GDP growth in 2025 due to negative effects of tariffs. However, this is followed by stronger growth in 2026 as supply chains adjusted to tariffs and the OBBBA boosts consumption and private investment. More growth is forecasted for 2027 and 2028 as the economy adjusts to lower net immigration but is partially offset by higher domestic production because of tariff protection.

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US Builders Stay Cautious as Single-Family Permits Weaken

By Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In August, single-family permit activity softened, reflecting caution among developers amid persistent economic headwinds. This trend has been consistent for eight continuous months. On the multifamily front, permitting also cooled in August but remains in the positive territory. While single-family continues to bear the brunt of affordability headwinds, the multifamily space is showing tentative signs of rebalancing. Over the first eight months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 637,096. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 7.1% over the August 2024 level of 685,923. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 330,617. This is 1.4% higher compared to the August 2024 level of 326,080. HBGI analysis indicates that this growth for multifamily development has been concentrated in lower density areas and among smaller builders.

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US Custom Home Building Share Declines in 2024

By Ashok Chaluvadi
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In 2024, 17.5% of all new single-family homes started were custom homes. This share decreased from 18.8% in 2023 and from 20.4% in 2022, according to data tabulated from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC). The custom home market consists of contractor-built and owner-built homes—homes built for owner occupancy on the owner’s land, with either the owner or a builder acting as a general contractor. The alternatives are homes built-for-sale (on the builder’s land, often in subdivisions, with the intention of selling the house and land in one transaction) and homes built-for-rent. In 2024, 73.1% of the single-family homes started were built-for-sale and 9.3% were built-for-rent. At a 17.5% share, the number of custom homes started in 2024 was 176,932, falling from 177,850 in 2023.

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Boise Cascade’s Stock Plunges Amidst Timber Sector Headwinds

WRAL News
October 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Boise Cascade’s recent descent to a new 12-month low underscores the significant challenges currently facing the timber and building materials sector. This period of volatility, marked by high interest rates, a subdued housing market, and complex trade policies, demands a nuanced understanding from investors and industry participants alike. …The market is poised for a period of cautious recovery, with expectations for a stronger rebound in 2026. …The current downturn is a critical juncture, prompting companies to reassess strategies and accelerate adaptations. The lasting impact will likely be a more consolidated, technologically advanced, and sustainability-focused timber industry. Companies that successfully pivot towards green building materials, engineered wood products, and efficient construction methods will be best positioned for long-term growth. The trade policy changes, particularly tariffs, could permanently alter supply chains, favoring domestic production but potentially increasing costs in the short term.

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Vinyl Surpasses Stucco as Most Used Principal Exterior Wall Material

By Onnah Dereski
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In 2024, vinyl siding was the most used principal exterior wall material for homes started. It holds just over a quarter share of homes, slightly surpassing stucco for the first time since 2018. …Vinyl was followed closely by stucco at 25%, and by fiber cement siding (such as Hardiplank or Hardiboard) at 23%. Each of these materials holds about a quarter of the market, with another 16% held by brick or brick veneer. Far smaller shares of single-family homes had wood or wood products (6%), stone, rock or other stone materials (1%), other (1%), or cement blocks (.2%) as the principal exterior wall material. …The strongest trend has been the growing popularity in fiber cement siding. The share of exterior siding material for fiber cement siding has increased by 5.5 percentage points in the last ten years…. Also notable is the decline of brick siding, from almost a quarter of homes in 2012, to just 16% in 2024.

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Which countries could win or lose from US containerboard tariffs

By Natalie Schwertheim
Packaging Insights
October 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

The recent US tariffs on paper and pulp may trigger a zero-sum dynamic, with rising prices and costs pushing trade flows toward cheaper, lower-tariff partners like Canada and Brazil, according to Xinnan Li, senior analyst for Packaging and Logistics at RaboResearch. Rabobank’s Q3 2025 containerboard quarterly report, outlined the research department’s forecasts for containerboard demand, production, and linerboard prices.

  • RaboResearch expects US tariffs on pulp and paper to reshape global trade, favoring lower-tariff partners like Canada and Brazil while disadvantaging European exporters.
  • Containerboard demand is expected to recover modestly, with production rebounding and prices projected to rise by 2026–2027 as inventories stabilize and inflation pressures ease.
  • Winners could include low-cost South American and Canadian producers, while European and Chinese suppliers face declining competitiveness and higher costs.

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US Remodeling Market Sentiment Improves in Third Quarter

By Eric Lynch
NAHB – Eye on Housing
October 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 60, up one point compared to the previous quarter. With the reading of 60, the RMI remains solidly in positive territory above 50, but lower than it had been at any time from 2021 through 2024. Overall, remodelers remain optimistic about the market, although slightly less optimistic than they were at this time last year. The most significant headwinds they are facing include high material and labor costs, as well as economic and political uncertainty making some of their potential customers cautious about moving forward with remodeling projects. The small quarter-over-quarter improvement is consistent with flat construction spending trends and the current wait-and-see demand environment.

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Fannie Mae Publishes September 2025 National Housing Survey Results

Fannie Mae
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its September 2025 National Housing Survey, which includes the Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), a measure of consumer sentiment toward housing. Month over month, the HPSI remained unchanged at 71.4. Year over year, the HPSI is down 2.5 points. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.

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Consumer Watchdog Urges Supreme Court to Rein In Presidential Tariff Powers Driving Up Consumer Prices

By Consumer Watchdog
PR Newswire
October 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON — Consumer Watchdog filed an amicus curiae brief in the US Supreme Court urging the Justices to strike down President Donald Trump’s sweeping “emergency” tariffs, warning that unchecked presidential power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) threatens both consumers’ pocketbooks and the Constitution’s separation of powers. The brief argues that:

  • Tariffs act as a regressive tax that raises prices on consumer household essentials and disproportionately burdens families and small businesses.
  • IEEPA lacks an “intelligible principle”—it provides no limits on the President’s ability to impose, vary, or lift tariffs, no standards for rate or duration, and no provision for judicial review.
  • Recent precedent underscores that Congress must set clear boundaries when delegating economic power; IEEPA, by contrast, contains none.

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Trump urges Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to jumpstart stalled homebuilding

By Liezel Once
Mortgage Professional America Magazine
October 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Donald Trump has reignited debate over the nation’s housing shortage, calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to spur a wave of new home construction. Trump accused large homebuilders of “sitting on 2 million empty lots, a record,” and likened their behavior to OPEC’s control of oil prices. …“I’m asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get Big Homebuilders going and, by so doing, help restore the American Dream!” The president’s comments come as housing inventory has rebounded from historic lows in 2022, but builders continue to face limited incentives to ramp up construction. …Since taking office, Trump has made housing a central policy focus, including an executive order for emergency price relief and a campaign to pressure the Federal Reserve for lower rates. …Despite Trump’s calls, the mechanics of how Fannie and Freddie might spur more homebuilding remain unclear. 

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Trump’s New Tariffs Could Worsen America’s Housing Crisis

By Sydney Ember
New York Times
October 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs aimed at wood, furniture and other household furnishings could drive up the cost of building and owning homes, further weighing on an already weak housing sector. Analysts said the steep levies could aggravate the nationwide housing shortage by slowing the pace of new home construction. The higher costs, as well as hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum that went into effect in June, could also dampen any jolt the housing market might have derived as the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates. …“These tariffs are really hard to understand given that the president has said to his supporters, ‘I want to bring down inflation, I want to bring down interest rates,’” said Anirban Basu, at the Associated Builders and Contractors. …And there could be ripple effects, including higher prices for home insurance because houses and their components would cost more to replace. [to access the full story a NY Times subscription is required]

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Fannie Mae predicts major mortgage rate change coming soon

By Jeffrey Quiggle
The Street
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Fannie Mae revised its mortgage rate forecast and other predictions about the U.S. economy in the September report. Among its projections are:

  • Mortgage rates are expected to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively, compared to 6.5%  and 6.1% in Fannie Mae’s prior forecast.
  • The total home sales outlook for 2025 was revised to 4.72 million, compared to 4.74 million previously. Its 2026 home sales projection is 5.16 million, compared to 5.23 million previously.
  • It revised its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 to 1.5 percent and 2.1 percent on a Q4/Q4 basis, compared to 1.1 percent and 2.2 percent in its previous forecast, respectively.
  • Regarding inflation, Fannie Mae expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise to 3.1 percent Q4/Q4 in 2025, compared to its August forecast of 3.3 percent. The CPI outlook for 2026 is 2.6 percent, a prediction that is unchanged.

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US Consumer Confidence Drops on Job Concerns

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer confidence fell to a five-month low as consumers remain concerned about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market amid economic uncertainty. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, has narrowed for nine straight month and is now at lowest level since March 2021. This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring. The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 97.8 to 94.2 in September, the lowest level since April. …In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 7.0 points from 132.4 to 125.4, the largest monthly decline since September 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped 1.3 points from 74.7 to 73.4. This is the eighth consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

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My house cost $150,000 more to build even before new tariffs hit

By Danielle Kaye
BBC News
October 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Anthony Cabrera, who started working with a contractor in March to construct the three-bedroom house, was eager to get ahead of a fresh round of tariffs on key building materials and home items that took effect earlier this week. Mr Cabrera had already seen his initial budget of roughly $300,000 balloon to $450,000 as prices for a range of products. …A recent report from Goldman Sachs found that US consumers will shoulder as much as 55% of the cost. It takes time to raise prices on consumers, the economists noted, and US firms will increasingly pass on costs in the coming months. The new tariffs “will create additional headwinds for an already challenged housing market” Buddy Hughes, chairman for the NAHB, said. Affordable housing construction could be hit particularly hard, said Elena Patel, of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. …Matthew Walsh, at Moody’s Analytics, said that cost uncertainty will be the most immediate effect.

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Profitability of UK wood-based panels producers declines amid challenging economic conditions

By Stephen Powney
The Timber Trades Journal
October 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The latest set of financial results for UK panel products manufacturer West Fraser Europe show that its turnover fell by £65m for the year ended December 31, 2024. The results show that West Fraser Europe’s turnover for the period was £352m (2023: £417m). The company recorded a loss for the year after taxation of -£12.1m (2023: £4.8m profit after tax). The West Fraser Europe operation includes an MDF and particleboard mill in Cowie, and OSB mills in Inverness and Genk, Belgium. …Fellow UK panel product manufacturer Kronospan UK, which produces MDF and particleboard, published its last set of results in June 2025, relating to the 12 months ended September 30, 2024. The results show revenue during the period had been £309m (2023: £354m), down 12%, while profit before tax was £489,000 (2023: £47.4m). 

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China’s Pulp and Paper Expansion: How Overcapacity Is Reshaping Global Competitiveness

ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
October 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

China’s pulp and paper industry continues to expand at an unprecedented pace, with new mill projects, advanced technologies, and state-backed financing driving record output. What began as a push to meet domestic demand has now evolved into an era of overcapacity and a structural imbalance that is reshaping trade dynamics, pricing strategies, and sustainability priorities worldwide. This expansion has far-reaching effects: global producers are contending with lower-priced exports, disrupted supply chains, and a shifting balance of power that challenges traditional market leaders in North America and Europe. …Industry observers expect consolidation in China’s pulp and paper sector, as smaller and less efficient mills struggle to survive. Strategic investments in transparency, benchmarking, and efficiency will be crucial for staying competitive in a tightening global market.

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UK timber industry records fragile softwood sales along with critical supply chain tensions

Wood & Panel
October 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The UK timber industry is currently experiencing a crisis, even as it reports record sales of softwood, raising concerns over supply chain challenges, rising costs, and sustainability issues. The surge in softwood sales, particularly in the construction and woodworking sectors, has overshadowed the ongoing difficulties facing the industry. While the demand for timber has been high, particularly due to the growing construction boom and a shift toward more sustainable building materials, the challenges related to timber shortages and price increases remain deeply concerning for businesses across the sector. …The Timber Trade Federation (TTF) reports that softwood sales in the UK reached record levels in 2024. However, one of the most pressing issues facing the UK timber sector is the disruption of supply chains. The UK has faced considerable difficulty in securing a steady supply of raw timber. The global timber shortage has exacerbated the situation.

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Mondi warns of weak demand as shares plunge in paper and packaging sector

By Mohamed Dabo
Packaging Gateway
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Shares in packaging and paper group Mondi fell sharply on Monday after the company issued a cautionary outlook, citing weak demand and falling prices across pulp and paper grades. The warning rattled investor confidence in the paper and packaging sector, dragging Mondi shares to a 12-year low. The company said volumes remained subdued and selling prices declined in most grades, particularly in fine paper and corrugated segments. Citing fragile demand, Mondi described the trading environment as challenging and flagged continued weakness for the rest of the year. CEO Andrew King told analysts that demand for packaging “has not become worse, nor has it become better,” and that weakness in the fine paper market persisted. …Mondi’s warning underscores continued strain across the paper and packaging industry. Oversupply in key markets, weak industrial demand in Europe, and aggressive pricing competition are pressuring margins and volumes across the sector.

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