Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Lumber Futures Rise Amid Looming Tariffs

Trading Economics
October 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet in mid-October, approaching monthly highs as markets priced in tighter near-term supply and looming trade restrictions. Under newly announced US Section 232 tariffs that take effect on October 14th, imported softwood lumber will face a 10% duty and finished wood goods such as cabinets and furniture will face higher levies, prompting importers to front-load purchases and draw down inventories. Domestic output is also constrained as sawmills run cautiously after years of underinvestment, logging curbs in sensitive regions and slow capacity restarts have limited production. The cost and delay of switching suppliers is material given that Canadian lumber, which supplies much of US demand, already carries elevated antidumping and countervailing duties, intensifying the supply squeeze.

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North American Lumber: Production Outpaces Demand Amid Housing Headwinds

ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
October 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

North America’s softwood lumber market looks likely to end 2025 no more settled than it was at the beginning. Producers and buyers alike continue navigating a landscape shaped by fluctuating demand, shifting trade patterns, and an uncertain housing outlook. Despite modest production declines in early 2025, the lumber market remains oversupplied. Mills across the US and Canada are contending with high inventories built up earlier in the year. Expectations of tariff hikes spurred an early rush of exports from Canada to the US, flooding the market while demand was soft. However, in the first half of 2025 softwood lumber exports from Canada to the US declined, while US imports from Europe in the first seven months of 2025 increased by 6% year-over-year. Underlying these supply pressures is a US housing market stuck in the doldrums. August saw an 8.5% decline in overall housing starts, with single-family construction down nearly 7%.

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Trump’s Wood Tariffs Are Coming. Who Will Be Hit Hardest

By Ilena Peng
Bloomberg Economics
October 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on imported lumber and wood products that his administration says are needed to protect the US economy and boost domestic manufacturing. Starting Oct. 14, softwood lumber will face 10% duties, while kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and other finished wood goods will be hit with 25% tariffs that rise further in January. The biggest blow will fall on Canada, the US’s top lumber supplier, whose lumber exports are already subject to separate duties totaling 35.19%. …Though Canada dominates exports of lumber to the US, many other countries export wood products to the US. The Section 232 tariffs on lumber and wood products affect them in varying ways; some countries benefit from trade deals with the US that cap the rates, and others bear the full brunt. …Though lumber accounts for less than 20% of building costs, the National Association of Homebuilders has long said that restrictions on Canadian lumber translate to higher construction costs. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]

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Lumber Futures Ease from Near 2-Month Highs

Trading View
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell toward $600 per thousand board feet, easing from the near two-month high of $615.50 on October 3rd as the prior speculative rally reversed amid softer demand, looming tariff implementation, and inventory rebalancing. Demand has weakened as homebuilders and material buyers pull back amid higher construction costs and tighter mortgage affordability that curb new housing starts. At the same time, many market participants had frontloaded purchases ahead of the US 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood lumber and higher duties on wood furniture and cabinets effective October 14th, creating a short-term inventory overhang that reduced fresh order flow. On the supply side, domestic sawmills have ramped up shipments to cover earlier shortages, while Canadian exporters remain constrained by heavy anti-dumping and countervailing duties that limit flexibility, easing prompt tightness. [END]

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Tariffs widen trade gap, pressure mounts on Bank of Canada

By Liezel Once
Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s international trade deficit swelled to $6.3 billion in August, its second-largest shortfall on record, as new United States tariffs took a heavy toll on key exports and injected fresh volatility into cross-border flows. The latest figures, released by Statistics Canada, show how US trade policy continues to affect Canadian exporters and make the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision more complicated. Exports in August fell 3% by value and 3.2% in volume, led by sharp declines in copper ore and lumber shipments, both of which were hit by new US tariffs. …Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.9%, buoyed by higher consumer goods, a sign of resilient household demand, even as business investment remained soft. …Exports to the US, Canada’s largest trading partner, fell 3.4% in August after three consecutive monthly gains, and were down 8% year-over-year. Exports to non-US destinations edged up 1.8% from a year ago but slipped 2% from July.

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Canada’s August trade deficit widens more than forecast as exports drop

By Promit Mukherjee
Reuters in Trading View
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened in August to C$6.32 billion ($4.53 billion) as exports fell faster in both value and volume than the rise in imports on a monthly basis, official government statistics showed on Tuesday. The trade deficit in August was led by drop in exports not only to its top trading partner the U.S. but also because its shipments to the rest of the world shrank in the month. Canada’s international trade numbers took a beating early this year as US President Trump imposed sectoral tariffs on the country, forcing businesses to reorient supply chain from its biggest trading partner. But the shift has been volatile and erratic. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the August trade deficit at C$5.55 billion, up from an upwardly revised C$3.82 billion in the prior month. Total exports dropped by 3% while imports increased 0.9%, StatsCan said.

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Trump has his eye on Canadian forestry stocks. You should, too

By David Berman
The Globe and Mail
October 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

It’s hard to find anything good to say about Canadian forestry stocks right now. Some of the biggest names in the sector have been on a downward slide for the past three years. … But the onslaught of grim news has highlighted some bargains. …Okay, the definition of attractive rests on an assumption that risk-averse investors might not want to embrace just yet: Despite Mr. Trump’s bluster, the US still needs Canadian lumber in a big way to feed its lumber-intensive home construction industry. Says who? The National Association of Home Builders, for one. …Some analysts believe that US forestry companies will struggle to replace Canadian softwood. Ben Isaacson, at Bank of Nova Scotia, estimates that US producers would have to build 50 new mills to become fully independent of Canadian lumber. Just two companies build the specialized equipment required in mills. They would struggle to supply even two mills a year. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]

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How are increased antidumping duties on Canadian lumber shipments to US likely to impact the market?

RISI Fastmarkets
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Although we are skeptical how effective the C$500 million in “transition” funding will be, the C$700 million in loan guarantees, which are clearly designed as a short-term lifeline for companies to weather the storm, seem pretty meaningful to the Canadian industry at first glance. …If Canadian producers were to simply absorb the incremental duty rate increase, using today’s FOB price for most Canadian softwood lumber and last year’s export volumes to the US translates to a “just pay it” cost of C$1.6-1.7 billion in additional duty payments over the next 12 months. Canadian mill operators are not in a financial position to simply absorb an additional 21-percentage-point increase in duties, so this is an extreme estimate of the true cost. Mills will curtail output rather than continue producing at heavy losses until prices adjust accordingly. Additionally, there is usually some degree of passthrough from the buyer to the seller.

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U.S. Section 232 Tariffs on Lumber: Navigating the New Trade Landscape

By Audrey Dixon
ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The softwood lumber trade dispute between the US and Canada, which has led to ever-higher US import duties on Canadian lumber, has lasted for decades. …Canadian lumber has the backing NAHB, which sees lumber tariffs as exacerbating high costs for builders and worsening the US housing affordability crisis. There is currently a “Wall of Wood” in the US, after Canadian producers increased shipments to the US in anticipation of the hike to existing ADD and CVD duties in August. Expectations that a large increase in duties would force the closure of Canadian sawmills, lead to shortages, and a boost in lumber prices, overlooked the current weak US demand for lumber, according to Matt Layman. …As US homebuilders now face additional tariff-driven costs, including a 50% tariff on cabinets and vanities, it’s hard to see the lumber demand situation improving, even if more Canadian suppliers have to curtail production or close sawmills.

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Lumber Futures Prices Rise on Trump’s New Tariff

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures prices are trading higher after President Trump slapped a 10% tariff on wood imports. Lumber prices have been on a rollercoaster this year, lifted by higher import taxes and tugged lower by the deteriorating housing and construction markets. …Trump’s executive order said the additional 10% tariff, which will also raise the price of lumber from European suppliers like Germany and Sweden, is aimed at protecting domestic sawmills. …Analysts expect the tariff to benefit domestic sawyers and timberland owners, such as Weyerhaeuser and PotlatchDeltic, at the expense of competitors north of the border, who have been losing US market share because of the duties, challenges supplying their sawmills with logs and the abundance of cheap US pine. “Canadian lumber producers’ cash costs should further increase, resulting in capacity closures and a tightening of lumber supply-demand dynamics,” said Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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U.S. lumber tariffs could add $8,900 to cost of building a home: USB Group

Seeking Alpha
September 30, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The Trump administration’s latest tariffs on housing materials could raise the average cost of building a single-family home by nearly $9,000, according to a report Tuesday from UBS. Research analyst John Lovallo said the new levies include “an incremental 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood timber and lumber imports, as well as 25% levies on kitchen cabinets, vanities and upholstered wood products.” UBS estimates the lumber tariff will add about $720 per home, while cabinet and vanity tariffs could tack on another $280. Upholstered wood products were not included in the calculation because they are generally purchased by homeowners rather than builders. “As a result, we now estimate the total tariff impact on the cost to construct an average home at approximately $8.9K,” Lovallo wrote. …“Importantly, we continue to believe this cost impact will be spread throughout the entire housing value chain, with the builders perhaps best positioned to push back on suppliers,” he said.

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Trump’s new timber tariffs could drive up housing costs

By Catherine Baab
Quartz Media
September 30, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump ordered fresh tariffs on softwood timber, lumber, and wood furnishings, even as housing groups warn the move could drive up construction costs and furniture-industry advocates said the levies would lead to US job losses. The tariffs may, however, prove more legally durable than Trump’s reciprocal country-by-country penalties because they fall under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, the same legal tool the White House has used to justify duties on steel and aluminum. …The measures hit Canada especially hard because the country already faces duties of more than 35%, a result of recent but separate trade initiatives. Publicly traded lumber producers most directly exposed include Canada’s West Fraser Timber, Canfor, and Interfor. In the US, Weyerhaeuser, Boise Cascade, and Louisiana-Pacific are the closest listed peers, with stocks prices that often move in step with lumber tariffs and demand. US-based furniture retailers may also experience pain, with many dependent on foreign wood.

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US Lumber Market in Chaos

By Russ Taylor, Russ Taylor Global
Truck LoggerBC Magazine
September 29, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Occasionally, market chaos happens, and in August and September 2025 it was happening. BC and Canadian sawmills were facing weak lumber market demand, increased US import duties and plunging prices, with little upside evident in the short term. And it happened quickly. …One of the ongoing problems is that US lumber demand has been very flat since 2016 when it was 48.3 billion bf. The average US lumber consumption between 2016 and 2024 has been just 50 billion bf as compared to 50.5 billion bf in 2024. So, simply no growth .This is despite some 8 billion bf of new capacity constructed in the US South over that same period. …Going forward, sawmill curtailments in high-cost or negative margin regions will be the next phase of the current market cycle. As a result of these low lumber prices, I expect to see a lengthy list of sawmill curtailments, especially in the US South, Quebec and BC. 

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Canada’s GDP grew for 1st time in 4 months in July

By Ari Rabinovitch
Global News
September 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s GDP managed to grow for the first time in four months in July, even as the economic impacts of American tariffs began settling in, according to Statistics Canada. On Friday, the agency reported that the gross domestic product increased by 0.2% in July compared with the month prior. In addition, Statistics Canada gave a preliminary estimate for August’s reading to show that the economy was “essentially unchanged in the month.” July’s figure was slightly higher than the 0.1% increase most analysts polled were expecting. …“Canada’s economy is tracking very soft growth in Q3. While not a recession, it’s still an economy that’s bumbling along,” said Derek Holt at the Bank of Nova Scotia. “The combined effect leaves us tracking growth of only about 0.7 per cent at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate in Q3 — that’s hardly much of any rebound from Q2.”

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Lumber Futures Holds Strong on Demand Expectations

Trading Economics
September 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures traded above $580 per thousand board feet in September, holding above earlier month lows as supply tightened and housing demand showed signs of renewal. Major producers such as Interfor reduced output through maintenance and shift cuts and mill idling while Canadian softwood flows remained constrained by tariff uncertainty which compressed prompt availability. Expectations of Fed further rate cuts later in 2025 encouraged forward looking builders to replenish inventories. New single family sales rose 20.5% to an 800k seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August which was the largest monthly rise since August 2022. Existing home sales held at a 4.00m SAAR in August and housing inventory stood at 1.53m units equivalent to 4.6 months of supply.

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Why Anti-Dumping Duties Make No Sense in Commodity Markets

By Alice Palmer
Sustainable Forests, Resilient Industry
September 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Alice Palmer

Is Canada swamping the US with cheap lumber? According to the US Commerce Department, the answer is “yes.” On July 25, the US imposed anti-dumping duties of over 20% on softwood lumber imports from Canada. This means that, according to the Commerce Department’s calculations, Canadian companies have been selling lumber into the US at rates some 20% below its fair market value. Yet, softwood lumber is a commodity product, meaning its price fluctuates with the balance of demand and supply in the marketplace. Therefore, lumber companies generally do not set their prices in the way that consumer products companies do. Instead, they negotiate each sale based on the going price market price. While lumber traders may sometimes offer a small discount to make a quick sale, a 20% discount would be unusual, even on a single sales transaction. Companies certainly would not want to sell at 20% below the market for a full year (the reference period over which the US Commerce Department calculates dumping margins). That would be insane. So, how is the US Commerce Department coming up with its numbers?

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Expert warns new lumber tariffs could derail new home construction comeback

By Matt Sexton
Mortgage Professional America Magazine
September 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Russ Taylor

A recent unexpected drop in Canadian lumber prices and futures market, combined with declining mortgage rates, has potentially provided an opportunity for the struggling new home construction market to pick back up. So far, that opportunity hasn’t turned into increased building permits, housing starts, or builder confidence. …Russ Taylor said “The one thing we’re still waiting for is this Section 232 investigation for wood and timber and wood derivatives for all countries”. “That’s got a few people spooked. If they put tariffs on top of duties, this makes everything even worse for lumber.” While builder confidence remained low, there is some hope that lower interest rates might help. …“We’re probably six months out from seeing very high prices again, as mills start to build order files and buyers come back to the market,” Taylor said. But there are so many unknowns. Where is the US economy heading? What’s going to happen with higher inflation?

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Lumber Prices Fall Amid Housing Market Struggles

Trading View
September 22, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell back below $570 per thousand board feet in September, reflecting the struggles in the US housing market. Builders are scaling back new construction amid a recent inventory glut and growing economic uncertainty, while the Trump administration’s fluctuating stance on tariffs for imported lumber over the past few months has added further volatility. Meanwhile, a significant gap remains between the number of homes for sale and the demand from Americans seeking housing. Affordability challenges have caused many buyers to withdraw in recent months, keeping construction activity muted throughout 2025. However, recent cuts in US interest rates, along with prospects of further easing, have helped curb some of the losses. Without a substantial increase in new home demand, the subdued pace of construction is likely to persist, as builders continue to compete with the steadily growing inventory of existing homes. [END]

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Interfor Announces $125 Million Bought Deal Offering of Common Shares

By Interfor Corporation
Cision Newswire
September 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

BURNABY, BC — Interfor announced that it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank, under which the Underwriters have agreed to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 12,437,800 common shares of the Company at a price of $10.05 per Common Share for gross proceeds of $125 million. The Company has agreed to grant the Underwriters an over-allotment option to purchase up to an additional 15% of the Common Shares. …The Company intends to use the net proceeds of the Offering to pay down existing indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. …Proceeds of the Offering are expected to further enhance Interfor’s flexibility to navigate near-term market volatility.  The Offering is scheduled to close on or about October 1, 2025.

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B.C. lumber sector takes another hit from weak markets, low prices

By Derrick Penner
The Vancouver Sun
September 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Weakening U.S. housing construction has put another dark cloud over BC’s forest industry, increasing the likelihood of more mill shutdowns and layoffs. Lumber prices flatlined in recent weeks due to weak demand, just as new, higher duties in the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute took effect. That means BC mills are operating at losses of up to US$220 per thousand board feet of two-by-fours, according to industry consultant Russ Taylor. …Taylor said market conditions during September are typically favourable for sawmills, but they’re decidedly negative this year. His forecast is that they will remain weak for the rest of the year, which will likely result in mills taking downtime. “We’re seeing it already,” said Kim Haakstad, CEO of the B.C. Council of Forest Industries. “We’re seeing temporary curtailments, we’re seeing extended holiday breaks, we’re seeing reconfigured shift schedules. …Haakstad said Parmar’s recognition of the urgency for change was encouraging.

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Ontario housing construction collapse ‘should alarm policymakers,’ report warns

By John MacFarlane
Yahoo! Finance
September 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Housing starts and pre-sales in much of Southern Ontario have earned failing grades and are on track to get even worse, a new study warns — a situation that “should alarm policymakers across all three orders of government.” The report from University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative compares housing starts and sales in 34 municipalities across the Greater Toronto Area and neighbouring Southern Ontario cities for the first six months of 2025 with the same period from 2021–2024. It found starts are down 40% relative to that four-year average, with pre-construction condo sales plunging 89 per cent and other homes 70 per cent. The reduction in starts has direct employment implications, and the collapse in pre-construction sales, the study says, is “a clear indication that Ontario’s housing situation will get worse before it gets better, and that market weakness is not isolated to the condo market.” …The study paints a similarly bleak picture for the first half of 2025.

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Boise Cascade’s Stock Plunges Amidst Timber Sector Headwinds

WRAL News
October 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Boise Cascade’s recent descent to a new 12-month low underscores the significant challenges currently facing the timber and building materials sector. This period of volatility, marked by high interest rates, a subdued housing market, and complex trade policies, demands a nuanced understanding from investors and industry participants alike. …The market is poised for a period of cautious recovery, with expectations for a stronger rebound in 2026. …The current downturn is a critical juncture, prompting companies to reassess strategies and accelerate adaptations. The lasting impact will likely be a more consolidated, technologically advanced, and sustainability-focused timber industry. Companies that successfully pivot towards green building materials, engineered wood products, and efficient construction methods will be best positioned for long-term growth. The trade policy changes, particularly tariffs, could permanently alter supply chains, favoring domestic production but potentially increasing costs in the short term.

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Vinyl Surpasses Stucco as Most Used Principal Exterior Wall Material

By Onnah Dereski
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In 2024, vinyl siding was the most used principal exterior wall material for homes started. It holds just over a quarter share of homes, slightly surpassing stucco for the first time since 2018. …Vinyl was followed closely by stucco at 25%, and by fiber cement siding (such as Hardiplank or Hardiboard) at 23%. Each of these materials holds about a quarter of the market, with another 16% held by brick or brick veneer. Far smaller shares of single-family homes had wood or wood products (6%), stone, rock or other stone materials (1%), other (1%), or cement blocks (.2%) as the principal exterior wall material. …The strongest trend has been the growing popularity in fiber cement siding. The share of exterior siding material for fiber cement siding has increased by 5.5 percentage points in the last ten years…. Also notable is the decline of brick siding, from almost a quarter of homes in 2012, to just 16% in 2024.

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Which countries could win or lose from US containerboard tariffs

By Natalie Schwertheim
Packaging Insights
October 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

The recent US tariffs on paper and pulp may trigger a zero-sum dynamic, with rising prices and costs pushing trade flows toward cheaper, lower-tariff partners like Canada and Brazil, according to Xinnan Li, senior analyst for Packaging and Logistics at RaboResearch. Rabobank’s Q3 2025 containerboard quarterly report, outlined the research department’s forecasts for containerboard demand, production, and linerboard prices.

  • RaboResearch expects US tariffs on pulp and paper to reshape global trade, favoring lower-tariff partners like Canada and Brazil while disadvantaging European exporters.
  • Containerboard demand is expected to recover modestly, with production rebounding and prices projected to rise by 2026–2027 as inventories stabilize and inflation pressures ease.
  • Winners could include low-cost South American and Canadian producers, while European and Chinese suppliers face declining competitiveness and higher costs.

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US Remodeling Market Sentiment Improves in Third Quarter

By Eric Lynch
NAHB – Eye on Housing
October 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 60, up one point compared to the previous quarter. With the reading of 60, the RMI remains solidly in positive territory above 50, but lower than it had been at any time from 2021 through 2024. Overall, remodelers remain optimistic about the market, although slightly less optimistic than they were at this time last year. The most significant headwinds they are facing include high material and labor costs, as well as economic and political uncertainty making some of their potential customers cautious about moving forward with remodeling projects. The small quarter-over-quarter improvement is consistent with flat construction spending trends and the current wait-and-see demand environment.

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Fannie Mae Publishes September 2025 National Housing Survey Results

Fannie Mae
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its September 2025 National Housing Survey, which includes the Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), a measure of consumer sentiment toward housing. Month over month, the HPSI remained unchanged at 71.4. Year over year, the HPSI is down 2.5 points. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.

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Consumer Watchdog Urges Supreme Court to Rein In Presidential Tariff Powers Driving Up Consumer Prices

By Consumer Watchdog
PR Newswire
October 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON — Consumer Watchdog filed an amicus curiae brief in the US Supreme Court urging the Justices to strike down President Donald Trump’s sweeping “emergency” tariffs, warning that unchecked presidential power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) threatens both consumers’ pocketbooks and the Constitution’s separation of powers. The brief argues that:

  • Tariffs act as a regressive tax that raises prices on consumer household essentials and disproportionately burdens families and small businesses.
  • IEEPA lacks an “intelligible principle”—it provides no limits on the President’s ability to impose, vary, or lift tariffs, no standards for rate or duration, and no provision for judicial review.
  • Recent precedent underscores that Congress must set clear boundaries when delegating economic power; IEEPA, by contrast, contains none.

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Trump urges Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to jumpstart stalled homebuilding

By Liezel Once
Mortgage Professional America Magazine
October 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Donald Trump has reignited debate over the nation’s housing shortage, calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to spur a wave of new home construction. Trump accused large homebuilders of “sitting on 2 million empty lots, a record,” and likened their behavior to OPEC’s control of oil prices. …“I’m asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get Big Homebuilders going and, by so doing, help restore the American Dream!” The president’s comments come as housing inventory has rebounded from historic lows in 2022, but builders continue to face limited incentives to ramp up construction. …Since taking office, Trump has made housing a central policy focus, including an executive order for emergency price relief and a campaign to pressure the Federal Reserve for lower rates. …Despite Trump’s calls, the mechanics of how Fannie and Freddie might spur more homebuilding remain unclear. 

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Trump’s New Tariffs Could Worsen America’s Housing Crisis

By Sydney Ember
New York Times
October 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs aimed at wood, furniture and other household furnishings could drive up the cost of building and owning homes, further weighing on an already weak housing sector. Analysts said the steep levies could aggravate the nationwide housing shortage by slowing the pace of new home construction. The higher costs, as well as hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum that went into effect in June, could also dampen any jolt the housing market might have derived as the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates. …“These tariffs are really hard to understand given that the president has said to his supporters, ‘I want to bring down inflation, I want to bring down interest rates,’” said Anirban Basu, at the Associated Builders and Contractors. …And there could be ripple effects, including higher prices for home insurance because houses and their components would cost more to replace. [to access the full story a NY Times subscription is required]

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Fannie Mae predicts major mortgage rate change coming soon

By Jeffrey Quiggle
The Street
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Fannie Mae revised its mortgage rate forecast and other predictions about the U.S. economy in the September report. Among its projections are:

  • Mortgage rates are expected to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively, compared to 6.5%  and 6.1% in Fannie Mae’s prior forecast.
  • The total home sales outlook for 2025 was revised to 4.72 million, compared to 4.74 million previously. Its 2026 home sales projection is 5.16 million, compared to 5.23 million previously.
  • It revised its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 to 1.5 percent and 2.1 percent on a Q4/Q4 basis, compared to 1.1 percent and 2.2 percent in its previous forecast, respectively.
  • Regarding inflation, Fannie Mae expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise to 3.1 percent Q4/Q4 in 2025, compared to its August forecast of 3.3 percent. The CPI outlook for 2026 is 2.6 percent, a prediction that is unchanged.

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US Consumer Confidence Drops on Job Concerns

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer confidence fell to a five-month low as consumers remain concerned about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market amid economic uncertainty. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, has narrowed for nine straight month and is now at lowest level since March 2021. This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring. The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 97.8 to 94.2 in September, the lowest level since April. …In September, the Present Situation Index decreased 7.0 points from 132.4 to 125.4, the largest monthly decline since September 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped 1.3 points from 74.7 to 73.4. This is the eighth consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

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US Consumer Sentiment Fell 5.3% in September

By Joanne Hsu, Director
The University of Michigan
September 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading and eased about 5% from last month but remains above the low readings seen in April and May of this year. Although September’s decline was relatively modest, it was still seen across a broad swath of the population, across groups by age, income, and education, and all five index components. …Nationally, not only did macroeconomic expectations fall, particularly for labor markets and business conditions, but personal expectations did as well, with a softening outlook for their own incomes and personal finances. Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year. …Year-ahead inflation expectations receded slightly to 4.7% from 4.8% last month. Long-run inflation expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.7% in September.

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US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 3.8% in Q2, 2025

US Bureau of Economic Analysis
September 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, according to the third estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6% (revised). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending.  Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.

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Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September

By Catherine Koh
NAHB Eye on Housing
September 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Average mortgage rates in September trended lower as the bond market priced in expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.35%, 24 basis points (bps) lower than August. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 21 bps to 5.50%. Despite the recent drop, rates remain higher than a year ago as last September saw the lowest levels in about two years. The 30-year rate is currently higher by 17 basis points (bps), and the 15-year rate is higher by 24 bps, year-over-year.  …Markets began pricing in rate cuts from the Fed at the start of the month, particularly after news that jobless claims rose while inflation remained modest. On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 bps cut to the federal funds rate, bringing the target range to 4.00% – 4.25%. Falling mortgage rates have already shown an impact on housing activity. 

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US New Home Sales Post Unexpected Large Gain in August

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
September 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

A modest drop in mortgage rates led to a surprisingly large jump in new home sales in August, though the figure may be revised downward in the coming month. Sales of newly built single-family homes jumped 20.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000 from an upwardly revised reading in July, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales is up 15.4% from a year earlier. The three-month moving average of new home sales was 713,000, an increase from 656,000 in July. However, the Census Bureau’s estimate is often volatile and subject to significant revisions. Despite the increase in estimated August sales, NAHB expects a gradual improvement in new home sales, supported by a recent interest rate cut and a downturn trend in mortgage rates. 

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Beyond the Official Unemployment Rate: A Deep Dive into U.S. Unemployment

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
September 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In August, the official, or standardly referenced, unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July. This marks the highest level in nearly four years, though it remains historically low. Although the national unemployment rate provides a broader view of labor market conditions, it often obscures significant variations at the local level. …In the following analysis, we will take a closer look at long-term unemployment and the broader U-6 unemployment rate, both of which provide further insight into the overall health of the labor market. …As of August 2025, more than 1.9 million Americans have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks. This marks the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic and is almost double the number seen in early 2023. Today, long-term unemployed individuals account for nearly 26% of the total unemployed people, underscoring signs of a cooling labor market.

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Trump Could Help the Housing Crisis, if He Just Did Everything Differently

By Rebecca Patterson, economist
The New York Times
September 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Housing is the foundation of the economy. …It’s not a surprise, then, that the Trump administration recently said it was considering declaring the housing crisis a national emergency. The federal government alone can’t solve the housing crisis. That said, the administration could take steps that would meaningfully help make American housing more affordable. …One of the biggest issues is supply. …But according to the NAHB, immigrants represent one in four American construction workers. Want a ceiling for your new home? More than 60% of ceiling installers are immigrants. Nearly two-thirds of U.S. home manufacturers said last year they faced shortages of carpenters and other key construction workers. Today, even fewer available workers means higher wages, which adds to the cost of new housing, and fewer homes getting built. Then there are tariffs that hit the housing industry, including 35% tariffs and related duties on Canadian lumber. [to access the full story a NY Times subscription is required]

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Cardboard-Box Demand Is Slumping. Why That’s Bad News for the Economy

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
September 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer given that goods ranging from pizzas to ovens are transported in corrugated packaging. A historic run of pulp-mill closures is also signaling problems for the companies that make corrugated packaging as well as the timberland owners who sell them wood. International Paper, the country’s biggest box maker, announced last month the shutdown of two US containerboard mills, which make the brown paper that is folded into corrugated packaging. …It is a surprising turn in the e-commerce era. Box makers and analysts say demand presently suffers from uncertainty in US boardrooms and export markets because of President Trump’s tariffs as well as from weakening consumer spending. The sputtering housing market has also hurt, reducing the need for moving boxes as well as packaging for building products and appliances. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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UK timber industry records fragile softwood sales along with critical supply chain tensions

Wood & Panel
October 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The UK timber industry is currently experiencing a crisis, even as it reports record sales of softwood, raising concerns over supply chain challenges, rising costs, and sustainability issues. The surge in softwood sales, particularly in the construction and woodworking sectors, has overshadowed the ongoing difficulties facing the industry. While the demand for timber has been high, particularly due to the growing construction boom and a shift toward more sustainable building materials, the challenges related to timber shortages and price increases remain deeply concerning for businesses across the sector. …The Timber Trade Federation (TTF) reports that softwood sales in the UK reached record levels in 2024. However, one of the most pressing issues facing the UK timber sector is the disruption of supply chains. The UK has faced considerable difficulty in securing a steady supply of raw timber. The global timber shortage has exacerbated the situation.

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Mondi warns of weak demand as shares plunge in paper and packaging sector

By Mohamed Dabo
Packaging Gateway
October 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Shares in packaging and paper group Mondi fell sharply on Monday after the company issued a cautionary outlook, citing weak demand and falling prices across pulp and paper grades. The warning rattled investor confidence in the paper and packaging sector, dragging Mondi shares to a 12-year low. The company said volumes remained subdued and selling prices declined in most grades, particularly in fine paper and corrugated segments. Citing fragile demand, Mondi described the trading environment as challenging and flagged continued weakness for the rest of the year. CEO Andrew King told analysts that demand for packaging “has not become worse, nor has it become better,” and that weakness in the fine paper market persisted. …Mondi’s warning underscores continued strain across the paper and packaging industry. Oversupply in key markets, weak industrial demand in Europe, and aggressive pricing competition are pressuring margins and volumes across the sector.

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