Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Estimates of gross domestic product in wildfire-affected areas during the 2023 and 2024 wildfire seasons

By Matthew Brown
Statistics Canada
June 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Preliminary estimates suggest that the 2023 wildfire season caused approximately 232,000 people to evacuate their communities over 282 events, consequently causing disruption to economic activity for many businesses. This article discusses the amount of economic activity that was at risk of being affected, but not necessarily disrupted, by wildfires across Canada during the 2023 wildfire season. …The 2023 season was the largest ever recorded by land area affected, and the 2024 season was the second largest in the past two decades. The value of production in areas that were directly affected by wildfires in 2023 was assessed across Canada, and in the Jasper area in 2024. Although the wildfires affected large areas of land, their potential effects on overall GDP are relatively limited at a national scale (except for the Northwest Territories). However, for smaller places that were affected, these impacts are potentially quite large at the local scale, particularly for those that experienced longer evacuation periods.

Read More

Deloitte Canada expects NAFTA 2.0 ‘carve-out’ in new US trade deal

By Jeff Lagerquist
Yahoo Finance
June 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

A new Canada-US trade deal will likely carry forward the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement tariff exemptions shielding most Canadian exports from American tariffs, says Deloitte Canada chief economist Dawn Desjardins. …US President Donald Trump has set July 9 as the deadline for countries to ink a trade deal in order to avoid his “Liberation Day” tariffs. For Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed on the sidelines of the recent G7 meeting in Alberta to strike a deal by July 21. “Our baseline view assumes that at a minimum, we continue to operate with our CUSMA carve-outs. “The sounds we’re hearing seem to be moving in the right direction. Obviously, I have no inside information. It’s just an assumption that we will not be severely hit by 25 per cent tariffs across the board.” …Deloitte Canada’s latest economic forecast, published on Wednesday, calls for a “modest recession” in the second and third quarters of the year. 

Related coverage in Bloomberg Economics: Trade clarity to help Canada’s economy rebound after modest recession: Deloitte

Read More

Is US Lumber Self-Reliance Possible?

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber cost uncertainty has risen from the start of the year, driven in part by potential higher tariffs, particularly on Canadian softwood lumber. Despite the continued use and threat of tariffs, US sawmill and wood preservation firms have not increased production to a level that replaces imports. In fact, utilization rates continue to fall, meaning they have the capacity to produce more lumber but are simply not operating at that level. As these firms produce at lower levels, their employment has fallen over the past few quarters. At the same time, reduced foreign competition and artificially higher prices have lessened the incentive for firms to expand output, even as demand remains high. As a result, US mills remain unable to meet the nation’s full lumber consumption needs. …There is ample room to increase production, but… producers may see no benefit of increasing output, as it would push prices lower since demand has fallen from the start of the year. 

Read More

Inflation holds steady at 1.7% in May as rent hikes cool

The Canadian Press in CP24 News
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The annual pace of inflation held steady at 1.7% in May as cooling shelter costs helped tame price pressures, Statistics Canada said. Shelter costs rose three per cent in May, StatCan said, marking a slowdown from 3.4% in April. The agency singled out Ontario as the major source of rent relief in the country. …Mortgage interest costs meanwhile decelerated for the 21st consecutive month amid lower interest rates from the Bank of Canada. Economists had broadly expected inflation would remain unchanged heading into Tuesday. The removal of the consumer carbon price continues to drive down gasoline costs annually, StatCan said. …Inflation excluding tax changes – stripping out influences from the carbon price removal – was also steady at 2.3 per cent last month. …The central bank’s closely watched core inflation metrics meanwhile ticked down a tenth of a percentage point to three per cent in May.

Read More

Lumber Futures Eases Past $610

Trading Economics
June 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures traded below $610 per thousand board feet, easing from two-month highs of $626 seen June 13th, driven by improving supply while demand slowed. This pullback reflects a temporary surge in supply as sawmills and wholesalers restocked early-season safety stocks, while builders delayed purchases after earlier buying . The decline also stems from softer demand: high mortgage rates continue to suppress new house builds and remodeling activity, with treaters and end-users scaling back orders. Although longer-term forecasts expect a pickup in Q3, driven by renewed tariff pressure and projected housing recovery, the current correction is supply-led, driven by modest restocking, seasonal slowdown, and rate-constrained construction spending. [END]›

Read More

Manufacturing is crucial to BC economy but policy is falling short

By Jock Finlayson and Ken Peacock
Business in Vancouver
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

As Ottawa bets big on EVs and batteries, core manufacturers in sectors like lumber, metal and machinery are left fighting uphill battles at home. Among his various and sometimes conflicting economic objectives, Donald Trump has identified revitalizing manufacturing as a priority. He has railed against the decline in factory jobs — a complaint that overlooks the jump in U.S. manufacturing employment since 2015 but does reflect the fact that manufacturing today accounts for a significantly smaller share of U.S. jobs than it did 30 years ago. Canadian policymakers have also been paying more attention to manufacturing, particularly since the 2020-21 COVID shock highlighted the country’s vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. Unfortunately, Ottawa’s preferred game-plan has been to dole out vast taxpayer-funded subsidies to politically favoured segments: Electric vehicles, batteries and clean-tech products.

Read More

Urgency and Caution: Charting a Careful Path to the CUSMA Review

By Meredith Lilly
The CD Howe Institute
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

It is essential that the prime minister build on areas of common interest while limiting additional exposure to the US through diversification efforts. Meanwhile, there are signs that the trade chaos which characterized the initial months of Trump’s presidency may be easing. Despite the administration’s wild “Liberation Day” tariffs… most Canadian exports to the US remain eligible for tariff-free treatment. …Given the ease with which the president has ignored the agreement in recent months by imposing tariffs under a national emergency rationale that has been rejected by the courts and trade experts alike, many are rightly asking whether Canada should expose itself to further US aggression via a potential renegotiation of CUSMA. The existence of CUSMA and associated compliance with the agreement that now protects Canadian exports from the harsher treatment being imposed on other countries. …Canada will have its own list of grievances, including softwood lumber duties.

Read More

Canada at a crossroads: Economic transformation amid uncertainty

PricewaterhouseCoopers
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

In recent months, global economic uncertainty has weighed heavily on national economies, and Canada’s is no exception. A combination of international political shifts and long-standing domestic challenges has led to a slowdown in Canada’s economic activity. Our PwC Canada Economics and Policy practice’s current baseline projection for the remainder of 2025 calls for Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) growth to remain well below 1%. The current climate of uncertainty has led many purchasers of Canadian businesses to adopt a cautious stance, delaying investments and expansion plans. In the period from January 1 to May 31, 2025, there were 996 deals announced in Canada with a total value of $134 billion. In that same period, we saw declines in inbound and locally sourced deals in Canada, while acquisitions of companies outside of Canada by Canadian companies increased. Despite broader economic challenges, Canada’s trade position with the United States is currently significantly better than those of many other countries.

Read More

Canadian housing starts largely flat from April to May

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
June 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The six-month trend in housing starts was flat (0.8%) in May (243,407 units), according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada. The total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was also flat (-0.2%) in May (279,510 units) compared to April (280,181 units). Actual housing starts were up 9% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, with 23,745 units recorded in May, compared to 21,814 units in May 2024. The year-to-date total was 90,767 up 1% from the same period in 2024. “Growth in actual starts activity in May was once again driven by increases of single-detached homes and purpose-built rentals in Québec. By contrast, weak condominium market conditions in Toronto and Vancouver have contributed to declines in overall housing starts in these regions,” said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist.

Read More

Lumber Reaches 10-Week Highs

Trading View
June 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet, a ten-week high, as steady construction activity met tightening supply and mounting trade barriers. US homebuilding remains steady with single-family starts flat at 1.36 million units in April and permits edging lower, while Canadian multi-unit starts jumped 34%, keeping mill orders firm. Canadian harvests are constrained by pine-beetle infestations, prairie wildfires that have burned more than 200,000 hectares this spring and strict cut limits that left British Columbia nearly 42% below its allowable quota in 2023. In the US, sawmill utilization stalled in the mid-70% range despite recent capacity additions. Tariffs of roughly 14.5% on Canadian softwood, along with threats of higher levies, have discouraged cross-border shipments, while major exporters divert supply to Asian and European markets. Elevated fuel and transportation costs further raise delivered prices.

Read More

Can Lumber’s Bullish Trend Continue?

By Andrew Hecht
Barchart
June 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The CME’s physical lumber futures have been in a bullish trend since the July 2024 low of $455.50 per 1,000 board feet. The weekly chart indicates that lumber futures have formed higher lows and higher highs, reaching a peak of $699 per 1,000 board feet in March 2025. While the price has dropped below the $600 level, the pattern of higher lows remains intact in June 2025. …Seasonality suggests that a lumber rally may need to wait until 2026… Lumber tends to be a seasonal commodity, with prices peaking during late winter and early spring as the weather improves and construction activity increases. In 2021, the old random-length lumber futures rose to a record high of $1,711.20 per 1,000 board feet in May, and in 2022, reached a lower high of $1,477.40 in March. …Keep an eye on interest rates as declines could ignite pent-up demand for new homes, which could light a bullish fuse under the lumber futures arena. 

Read More

China’s Pulp Supply Chain: Insights on Trade, Logistics and Futures Markets

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
The Tree Frog Forestry News
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

At International Pulp Week, three speakers discussed businesses that connect to China’s role in the global pulp industry — including trading, port logistics and the futures market. Haidong Weng, Executive Vice President of Pulp & Paper Research at Xiamen C&D… explained that after the US implemented its third wave of tariffs, Chinese exports of paper and board to the US fell sharply, with vessel density in major Chinese ports reflecting a significant pullback in trade flows. …He also described the cascading effects on US retail markets. …The scale and resilience of China’s port logistics were front and centre in a presentation by Tian Jun, representing the Shanghai International Port Group’s Luo Jing Terminal. Tian explained that SIPG views pulp as a strategic growth cargo across its network of general cargo terminals. …Another presentation came via video from Chi-Fei Fei of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), who provided an overview of China’s pulp futures market.

Read More

West Fraser Declares Dividend

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
June 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER, BC – West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. has declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.32 per share on the Common shares and Class B Common shares in the capital of the Company, payable on July 14, 2025 to shareholders of record on June 26, 2025. Dividends are designated to be eligible dividends pursuant to subsection 89(14) of the Income Tax Act (Canada) and any applicable provincial legislation pertaining to eligible dividends.

Read More

Ford government sitting on housing start data for months

By Isaac Callan and Colin D’Mello
Global News
June 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

A final tally of which Ontario municipalities hit their housing targets and how many fell short last year has been finished since mid-February, according to government documents obtained, despite the province refusing to release the data for months. For the past two years, the Ford government has set targets for new homes in towns and cities, promising them extra cash if they meet those goals. The numbers Ontario uses to assess whether or not cities have hit their goals are made up of new homes, long-term care beds and additional units like basements or garden suites. The government set up a website to show which cities had hit their goals. Around October 2024, however, with housing starts across the province stuttering, the government stopped updating the tracker. …While the tracker has appeared abandoned for close to half a year, the government has had “finalized” data for months.

Read More

Tariffing New Zealand Timber And Lumber Products To The US Would Be Troublesome

By Mark Ross, Wood Processors and Manufacturers of NZ
Scoop Independent News
July 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

New Zealand has a strong story to tell about free trade, farming and renewable forestry resources. …Given the healthy relationship between the US and New Zealand on the trade front, the temporary relief of tariffs on timber and lumber imported into the US has been welcomed. Though we realise that this tariff exemption could be short lived based on the outcome of the Section 232 investigation aimed at determining the global effects imports of timber, lumber and their derivative products have on the US supply chain. As a small niche supplier of wood products that are needed by the US domestic building market, there is a strong argument for keeping New Zealand timber and lumber imports tariff free to avoid any additional price hikes and further supply chain disruptions. …Like many, we now wait for completion of the section. 232 Investigation.

Read More

What’s in Trump’s big bill that passed Congress and will soon become law

By Kevin Freking and Lisa Mascaro
The Associated Press
July 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON — Republicans muscled President Donald Trump’s tax and spending cut bill through the House on Thursday, the final step necessary to get the bill to his desk by the GOP’s self-imposed deadline of July 4th. At nearly 900 pages, the legislation is a sprawling collection of tax breaks, spending cuts and other Republican priorities, including new money for national defense and deportations. Democrats united against the legislation, but were powerless to stop it as long as Republicans stayed united. The Senate passed the bill, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tiebreaking vote. The House passed an earlier iteration of the bill in May with just one vote to spare. It passed the final version 218-214. Republicans say the bill is crucial because there would be a massive tax increase after December when tax breaks from Trump’s first term expire. The legislation contains about $4.5 trillion in tax cuts.

Related coverage in CNBC: What the Senate Republican tax-and-spending bill means for your money

Read More

US Consumer Sentiment rose for the first time in 6 month, remains well below December 2024

By Joanne Hsu
The University of Michigan
June 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment surged 16% from May in its first increase in six months—confirming the mid-month reading—but remains well below the post-election bounce seen in December 2024. The improvement was broadbased across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more. Despite June’s gains, however, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024, right after the election; consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, but at this time they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle East with the economy. …Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024.

Read More

2024 New Single-Family Starts by Census Division

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 30, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Despite persistently high mortgage rates, elevated financing costs for builders, and a shortage of buildable lots, single-family starts rebounded in 2024, following two straight years of declines. According to the NAHB analysis of the 2024 Survey of Construction (SOC), a total of 1,009,315 new single-family units started construction nationwide. This is a 7% increase compared to 2023. Among the nine Census divisions, the South Atlantic division led the nation with 344,313 starts in 2024, representing a 34% share. The second highest was the West South Central division at 187,690 starts, followed by the Mountain division with 125,911 starts. …Meanwhile, there were 99,166 new single-family units started in the Pacific division (10% of total starts) and 81,106 in the East North Central division (8%) in 2024. The other four divisions, including East South Central, West North Central, Middle Atlantic, and New England, accounted for the remaining 17% of the total new single-family housing starts.

Read More

Western Governors Association Unveils Housing Plan That Includes NAHB Priorities

The National Association of Home Builders
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

During its June 22-24 meeting in Santa Fe, New Mexico, the Western Governors Association (WGA) unveiled a new report focused on expanding housing to western states. NAHB worked closely with the WGA in drafting the report, Building Resilient and New Affordable Developments in the West, and NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes participated in a panel that highlighted the key findings. Hughes encouraged the governors to keep the “5 Ls” in mind when working on housing issues: Labor, Land, Lumber and materials, Lending, and Laws and regulations. The lack of skilled labor, local land use policies that restrict home and apartment construction, lumber price volatility and elevated material prices, high lending costs for builders, and high regulatory burdens are the main drivers of low housing supply and high home prices, he noted. The report contains a number of policy objectives that seek to ease home building costs and increase the supply of housing.

Read More

Harvard Report Shows US Housing Affordability Crisis Worsening

The National Association of Home Builders
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US housing market continues to face uncertainty and record-high unaffordability as home prices and interest rates push sales to their lowest level in 30 years, according to The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS). The report highlights the record-high number of cost-burdened renters, the staggering increase in cost-burdened home owners, and the pricing out of first-time home buyers. …Builders have responded to these issues with smaller homes and mortgage rate buydowns, and while the new homeownership rate continues to fall and existing home sales hit a 30-year low, new home sales increased by 3% last year. The JCHS report notes that increasing housing supply would help alleviate the crisis. Zoning reforms and revisiting land-use policies can be used at the local level. 

Read More

Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty sent more home buyers to the sidelines in May as housing affordability conditions remain challenging. Sales of newly built single-family homes declined 13.7% in May, falling back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 according to the US Census Bureau. This was the slowest pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged 6.83% in May. Sales were particularly slow in the South, with the pace of sales down 21% in May. …On a year-to-date basis, new home sales are 3.2% lower thus far in 2025. As a result of slowing home sales conditions, inventory continues to rise, marking an elevated 9.8 months’ supply in May. As estimated by NAHB, total months’ supply, defined as a combination of current new and resale single-family inventory, now stands at 5.2. This is the highest sales-adjusted inventory level since 2015 and will place downward pressure on housing construction starts in the months ahead.

Read More

The US economy shrank much faster in the first quarter than previously reported

By Bryan Mena
CNN Business
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US economy contracted in the beginning of the year at a much faster pace than previously reported, after new data factored in much weaker consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. …The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years. …Economic data released Thursday provides a clearer picture how the US economy has fared in the face of Trump’s policy shifts, which includes fresh figures on new applications for unemployment benefits, and mortgage rates.

Read More

Vietnam, US promote sustainable timber trade, legal supply chains

Vietnam+
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

HANOI, Vietnam – Speaking at a workshop on Vietnam-US timber and wooden product trade… Secretary General of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST) Ngo Sy Hoai said that in 2024, Vietnam exported wood and wood products worth 9 billion USD to the US, up 24% year-on-year. The US accounts for 55% of the country’s total wood exports. …Meanwhile, Vietnam imported 316.36 million USD worth of timber from the US in 2024, up 32.9% year-on-year, accounting for 11.2% of Vietnam’s total wood imports. …Vietnam has banned natural forest logging since 2014, focusing instead on sustainable plantation forestry… on 3 million hectares of planted forests, mainly acacia and eucalyptus and 1 million hectares of rubber plantations. 700,000 ha of commercial forests in Vietnam have been certified under the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) or the Programme for the Endorsement ofForest Certification (PEFC) standards. Vietnam aims to reach 70% certified plantation coverage by 2030. Vietnam is also preparing to comply with the EU’s Deforestation Regulation.

Read More

US Consumer Confidence Retreats in June

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

After a strong rebound in May, consumer confidence resumed its downward trend in June. Consumers remain concerned about the economy and labor market amid ongoing uncertainty, especially around tariffs. This month’s decline erased almost half of last month’s sharp gain, suggesting continued volatility in consumer sentiment. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board… fell from 98.4 to 93.0 in June, the second lowest level since February of 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. The Present Situation Index decreased 6.4 points from 135.5 to 129.1, the lowest since October 2024; and the Expectation Situation Index dropped 4.6 points from 73.6 to 69.0. This is the fifth consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

Read More

The US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Pause Continues

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Reflecting most forecasters’ expectations for the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve continued its post-2024 pause for federal funds rate cuts, retaining a target rate of 4.5% to 4.25%. The pause comes after a 100 basis point series of reductions in late 2024. Despite these cuts, mortgage rates have remained in the high 6% range. The Fed also held unchanged its ongoing quantitative tightening program, which is more strongly focused on balance sheet reduction for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). …Looking forward to future monetary policy, the “dot plot” projections of the SEP leave the Fed forecasting two rate cuts in 2025, followed by just one reduction in 2026 and one more cut in 2027. This projection removes one rate cute from both 2026 and 2027 compared to the March dot plot, although the Fed continues to point to 3% as the long-run, terminal rate for the federal funds rate. [video below captures NAHB mid-year economic update]

Read More

US Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to the NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The index has only posted a lower reading twice since 2012 – in December 2022 when it hit 31 and in April 2020 at the start of the pandemic when it plunged more than 40 points to 30. Buyers have increasingly moved to the sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty. …All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in June. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points in June to 35, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months dropped two points to 40 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point decline to 21.

Read More

Housing starts plummet to a five-year low as buyers stay on the sidelines

By Aarthi Swaminathan
Market Watch
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Construction of new homes fell 9.8% in May, as builders pulled back amid waning demand from home buyers. Housing starts fell to a 1.26 million annual pace from 1.39 million the previous month, the government said. The annual pace refers to how many houses would be built over an entire year if May’s rate of construction were to continue. The pace of home building is down to the lowest level since May 2020 — during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. New-home construction is down 4.6% from the same period a year ago. Building permits, a sign of future construction, also fell 2% from the previous month to a 1.39 million rate. Builders have slowed down the construction of new homes primarily due to a pullback in buyer demand. Rising inventory levels and weak buyer demand have resulted in homes sitting longer on the market. More builders are also resorting to home prices to encourage buyers.

Read More

US Permit Activity Declines for Fourth Consecutive Month

By Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Housing permits continued a downhill trend for the fourth month in a row, pointing to a broader residential construction slowdown for 2025. Over the first four months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 320,259. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 4.7% over the April 2024 level of 336,124. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 154,668. This is 1.5% below the April 2024 level of 157,076. Year-to-date ending in April, single-family permits were down in three out of the four regions. The Northeast posted an increase of 5.7%. The Midwest was down by 0.6%, the West was down by 5.6%, and the South was down by 6.1% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted increases. The Midwest, the South and the West.

Read More

US Consumer Sentiment Improves For The First Time In Six Months

By Joanne Hsu
The University of Michigan
June 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month but remaining about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump. These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region. Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed. However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy. Their views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain well below six months ago in December 2024. Despite this month’s notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy.

Read More

US Inflation Up Slightly in May, Shelter Index Holds Steady

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Despite inflationary pressure from tariffs, inflation in May rose slightly but came in softer than expected. The Consumer Price Index increased from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. While this report reflected consumer prices after Liberation Day, it showed little sign of tariff impact as most reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days and many businesses had frontloaded imports ahead of tariffs. This preemptive action contributed a drag on the first quarter GDP growth. Additionally, the Bureau reduced its CPI collection sample starting in April due to staffing shortages, raising potential data quality concerns. …Meanwhile, housing inflation remains elevated, though it continues to ease gradually. …A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 3.9% over the year, the lowest reading since November 2021. 

Read More

More than 1,000 Housing Professionals Urge Congress to Act on Key Affordability Issues

The National Association of Home Builders
June 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

More than 1,000 builders, remodelers and associates engaged in all facets of the residential construction industry trekked to Capitol Hill to urge their lawmakers to support policies that will help builders unleash the housing market by allowing them to increase the production of quality, affordable housing. …The best way to ease the nation’s housing affordability crisis and boost housing production is to break down the barriers that are impeding new home and apartment construction,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. In more than 250 meetings with their representatives and senators, housing advocates urged lawmakers to act on three key issues that can have an immediate impact on housing affordability: Energy Codes… Workforce Development… Tax Policy.

Read More

Stocks waver as Trump threatens unilateral tariffs

By Lisa Kailai Han
CNBC News
June 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Stocks wavered Thursday as President Trump threatened setting unilateral tariffs on trading partners in two weeks. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%. …Wall Street awaits further developments on trade policy, especially between the U.S. and China, as talks between the two countries have been a focal point this week. Trump said Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for finishing trade talks with countries before higher US levies take effect, but that the extensions may not be necessary. …“We still think the primary driver for market direction and to break out to all-time highs would be some resolution for tariffs and how they interlink with the budget and the Fed. And we see a lot of headlines about negotiations or pauses or frameworks, but we still haven’t seen a single signed trade deal,” said Tom Hainlin at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group.

Read More

How NAHB is Working to Overcome NIMBY Attitudes

The National Association of Home Builders
June 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

NIMBYism often attempts to preserve the status quo at the expense of opportunity, equity and sustainability. Overcoming this opposition means an investment in neighborhoods that can welcome new families, support local businesses and ensure that people of all backgrounds can have a place to call home. When faced with a public opposed to a project, it can be helpful to engage community leaders or members who have previously benefitted from a similar type of housing. …NAHB provides resources and assistance to members and state and local associations. For example, NAHB recently supported the Home Builders and Remodelers Association of Massachusetts (HBRAM). …Through support from NAHB’s Legal Action Fund, HBARM highlighted the broader implications of zoning reform and how housing shortages affect everyone. 

Read More

Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose in May

Fannie Mae
June 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its May 2025 National Housing Survey® (NHS), which includes the Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), a measure of consumer sentiment toward housing. Month over month, the HPSI increased 4.3 points to 73.5. Year over year, the HPSI is up 4.1 points. …Five out of six HPSI components increased this month, namely Buying Conditions, Mortgage Rate Outlook, Selling Conditions, Job Loss Concern, and Home Price Outlook. Change in Household Income was the only HPSI component that decreased this month. …The net share of consumers (-48%) who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 7 percentage points since last month. The share who say it is a good time to buy increased 3 percentage points (26%), while the share who say it is a bad time to buy (74%) decreased 3 percentage points.

Read More

House passes Trump’s domestic policy bill. Here are 5 ways it will impact Oregon

By Amelia Templeton, Dirk VanderHart, Michelle Wiley and Courtney Sherwood
Oregon Public Broadcasting
July 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: US West

Congressional Republicans have passed their domestic policy bill that makes sweeping changes to entitlement programs like Medicaid and SNAP, significantly increases funding for immigration enforcement efforts and cuts funding for a number of environmental programs.  …In Oregon, the impacts of the legislation will be significant. An analysis …found the state would be disproportionately hit by the cuts to Medicaid. The Senate’s version of the bill would also cut funds to the state’s timber counties, and could reshape Oregonian college tuition and student loans. …Oregon will see more logging, less timber money going to local communities and less support for private forest owners. …However much more is logged, Oregon counties will not get a cut. That’s a change from current practice. Many counties in rural areas rely on a cut of revenues from timber sales on federal public lands to pay for schools, law enforcement and public infrastructure.

Read More

How uncertainty around tariffs is affecting housing affordability

By Ken Magri
Solving Sacramento
June 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

SACRAMENTO, California — There is already a crisis of available and affordable housing in America. But now, political uncertainty and economic volatility could make home buying even less attainable.  …The proposed Trump tariffs on building materials are creating financial volatility that could send housing prices up significantly. Since his announcement of widespread tariffs on April 2, the additional costs imposed on imported lumber, gypsum, aluminum, electronics and other related materials delayed the nation’s housing starts in April, according to NAHB. …“More tariffs equal more anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and consumers,” said David French, at the National Retail Federation. “Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer. …One of the largest material costs for housing construction is lumber, and the largest amounts are imported into the US from Canada.

Read More

Southern Pine Lumber Exports Are Up In April

The Southern Forest Products Association
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

April 2025 Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) were up 22.7% over the same month in 2024 at 57.4 MMBF and up 34.8% over March 2025, according to April 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. Year-to-date exports, however, are running 4% behind the same period in 2024 at 179.7 MMBF. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports were up 27% to $22.6 million in April – a 12-month high – compared to the same month in 2024 and up 26% over March 2025. Mexico leads the way YTD 2025 at $20.7 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $15.8 million, and Canada at $5 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, were up 47% compared to April 2025 at $15 million and up 53% over March 2025. …Softwood lumber imports were down 5% in April to 1.2 MMBF over the year and down 13.7% over March 2025.

Read More

European sawn timber industry transformed by €400M buying spree

By Sanjoy Narayan
RISI Fastmarkets
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The European sawn timber markets are experiencing unprecedented mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity spanning 2024-2025 while industry leaders race to secure scale and strategic positioning. The consolidation wave spans from Stora Enso’s €137 million acquisition of Finland’s Junnikkala, to Austrian HS Timber Group’s aggressive Baltic expansion through dual Latvian acquisitions. …Distressed asset opportunities have also emerged. …This flurry of deals, concentrated within an 18-month period, represents the industry’s response to margin pressures, supply chain uncertainties, and the need for operational scale in increasingly challenging market conditions. …The current consolidation wave, builds upon a decade-long trend of M&A activity that has steadily reshaped European timber markets. …For traders, the vertical integration trend suggests tighter control over upstream supply chains, potentially reducing spot market availability of both logs and finished products. …The timing proves strategic given that North American mill closures have continued to reshape supply dynamics in global markets. 

Read More

New Homes England 2024 to 2025 housebuilding statistics published

The Government of UK
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

UK — Housing programmes delivered by Homes England resulted in 38,308 new houses starting on site and 36,872 new homes completed between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025. This represents an increase in both starts (by 5%) and completions (by 12%) compared to the same period the previous year. 30,087 of new starts on site were for affordable houses — a 0.6% increase on the previous year, and representing 79% of all starts. …Eamonn Boylan, Chief Executive of Homes England, said: ”The statistics demonstrate the importance of programmes like the Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) to enable the delivery of these much-needed homes — and comes hot on the heels of the government committing a further £39 billion in funding to affordable homes over a 10 year period, giving confidence and certainty to the sector.”

Read More

Japan Still Sees Gradual Economic Recovery Despite Trump Tariffs; Trade Conflicts Continue Clouding Outlook Demand

Trading View
June 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Japan’s government remains cautiously optimistic, sticking to its long-held conviction that the economy should be able to weather both external shocks on already sluggish growth and a cost-led surge in domestic inflation, repeating it is expected to stay on a “modest recovery” track. In its monthly report for June released Wednesday by the Cabinet Office, less than three weeks after the prior report, the government repeated that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace but confronted by the uncertainty arising from the US trade policy.” Tokyo appears to have brought forward the release of its monthly report by about two weeks so that it could officially update the status of Japan’s economy before the leaders of the Group of Seven major nations gather for their annual summit at Kananaskis in the Canadian province of Alberta from June 15 to June 17. 

Read More