US sawmill production was unchanged in the third quarter according to the Industrial Production report. Utilization rates for sawmills and wood preservation industries remained near 70% despite a weakened demand environment from lower levels of residential construction in the third quarter of 2025. …The sawmill utilization rate has trended downward since 2017 due to added capacity and stagnant output. However, in the third quarter of 2025, on a four-quarter moving average, the utilization rate rose, as it increased from 68.2% to 68.8%. …Employment in sawmill and wood preservation industries continued to fall, dropping to roughly 85,400 workers in the third quarter. …US softwood lumber imports faced rising duty rates throughout 2025. …These higher duties contributed to import declines in the third and fourth quarters. The fourth quarter import volume was the lowest amount since the first quarter of 2014. Higher duties were not the only market headwind for imports, as residential construction demand faded over the course of 2025.
Mercer posted Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of -$4.61 against a consensus estimate of -$0.83, a miss that signals the commodity cycle has gone from painful to existential. The headline driver was a $238.7 million non-cash impairment charge, including a $203.5 million write-down on its Peace River hardwood pulp mill. …International Paper’s Q3 2025 losses look alarming on the surface, with a $1.01 billion impairment on its Global Cellulose Fibers business and $675 million in accelerated depreciation from mill closures. But adjusted EBITDA came in at $859 million, up 28% sequentially. IP is taking pain by choice. Mercer is absorbing pain it cannot control. …IP’s pivot to pure-play global packaging via DS Smith gives it pricing leverage and diversified end markets. Mercer’s mass timber order book, at roughly $163 million in contracts including data center projects, is a genuine bright spot, but it cannot offset a pulp business bleeding cash.
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% today as the economy performs below expectations, but war in the Middle East threatens higher inflation. The central bank’s decision to keep to the sidelines today was widely expected, but the future path for the policy rate is much less clear. Governor Tiff Macklem says in prepared remarks that the Bank of Canada is in a “dilemma” with U.S. trade uncertainty keeping the economy soft, but the Iran war sending global oil prices surging and likely spurring higher inflation in the months to come. Macklem says the central bank will look through the immediate inflationary hit from the war, but monetary policymakers will move to prevent persistent price hikes if the conflict persists or broadens. Statistics Canada reported an economic contraction in the fourth quarter of the year and sharp job losses in February.
Lumber futures climbed past $600 per thousand board feet as stabilizing housing sentiment and tightening production capacity across North America reversed a two month downward trend. The NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 38 in March with buyer traffic and future sales expectations showing marginal gains despite persistent economic uncertainty. While 37% of builders continue to offer price cuts to attract buyers the market is finding support from a 29.1% surge in multifamily housing starts and a 7.2% rise in total residential construction activity. On the supply side mill closures and elevated duties on Canadian imports are projected to remove over 1.3 billion board feet from the market this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further pressure the outlook as rising energy costs inflate transport and shipping expenses for global timber. These factors suggest a shift toward a supply constrained environment that offsets the impact of high mortgage rates.
Canadian housing starts posted a modest rebound in February, but economists and industry data pointed to a market still losing momentum beneath the surface. The latest figures suggest builders are working through earlier project decisions while facing weaker demand, higher costs and a darker macro outlook. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts rose 4.5% month over month to 250,900 units in February. That’s up from a revised 240,148 in January. The six‑month trend – a moving average used to smooth volatility – inched up just 0.4% to 256,005 units, essentially flat. …“Looking ahead, we expect heightened levels of business uncertainty and construction costs to weigh on the rate and trend of housing starts in the near‑to‑medium term.” …Among Canada’s largest centres, Montreal posted an 
Lumber increased to 602.00 USD/1000 board feet, the highest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber gained 1.1%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.51%.
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February as more people looked for work and the economy shed 84,000 jobs, according to the latest report from Statistics Canada, released Friday. The country’s employment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.6%, the second consecutive monthly decline. …Nearly 23% of the 1.5 million people who were unemployed in February were in long-term unemployment and had been continuously searching for work for 27 weeks or more. Statistics Canada said that percentage was little changed from a year ago, but “significantly above” the pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 17.1% recorded during 2017-19. Economists had been expecting a gain of 10,000 jobs in February but the numbers were “weaker than expected,” said Andrew Hencic, director and senior economist at TD Economics. “Looking forward, we are expecting the labour market to tread water in 2026, as a rapid slowdown in population growth drags on labour supply, and soft economic momentum limits hiring,” he said.
Canada’s housing agency says the country made “meaningful” supply gains last year thanks to record rental construction and more “missing middle” type housing, however short-term imbalances remain for several markets. Housing construction rose 6% year-over-year in 2025 to 259,000 units, with activity exceeding the 10-year average across most major markets, according to CMHC’s spring housing supply report. …Rentals drove overall new housing supply in Canada last year, with the number of rental units under construction nearly doubling the 10-year average. …The trend led to increased vacancy rates and slower rent price rises compared with recent years. The report also highlighted the growth of “missing middle” housing — a term referring to gentle-to-medium density types such as accessory suites, multiplexes, row homes, stacked townhouses and low-rise apartments, which have often been under-represented in new supply. …Despite some encouraging trends, particularly for the rental market, housing construction for the home ownership market weakened overall.
OTTAWA–Housing starts in Canada are set to decline over the next three years due to higher construction costs, weaker demand and elevated levels of unsold inventory, the country’s housing agency said Wednesday. The outlook from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. represents another setback for the country’s residential real-estate sector, where prices and sales have declined following a prolonged period of strength fueled by immigration. It’s also a sign that, unlike in the recent past, housing-market activity won’t help propel the Canadian economy into a higher gear. Canada’s economy is struggling with slow growth, with manufacturers under duress from hefty U.S. tariffs. Furthermore, firms are scaling back spending and hiring plans as the future of a North American trade treaty is in doubt. CMHC said in a report that it expects housing starts to drop during the 2026-to-2028 period. [
VANCOUVER, BC – Canfor Pulp Products announced that at the special meeting of the holders of common shares in the capital of the Company held earlier, the Shareholders voted in favour of approving the special resolution authorizing the previously announced arrangement whereby Canfor Corporation will acquire all of the issued and outstanding Common Shares that it and its affiliates do not already own by way of a statutory plan of arrangement. …The Arrangement was approved by 96.02% of the Shareholders and 84.42% of the Shareholders excluding any votes of the Purchaser and its affiliates and any other Shareholders whose votes were required to be excluded. …Assuming that all remaining approvals are obtained and all other remaining conditions precedent to the completion of the Arrangement are satisfied or waived, the Company anticipates that the Arrangement will be completed on or about March 17, 2026.
A large B.C.-based mass timber company is receiving $5.5 million in federal funding to expand its production capacity, the government’s latest support for prefabrication as a means to boost housing supply. Castlegar-based Kalesnikoff Mass Timber Inc. is receiving the funding from Pacific Economic Development Canada’s Regional Tariff Response Initiative. The initiative is investing more than $13 million in 10 projects across B.C.’s southern Interior, helping businesses impacted by tariffs, said a March 2 press release. Kalesnikoff is receiving a repayable investment of $5.5 million to help purchase new equipment to make prefabricated housing components used in multi-family housing, schools, daycares and commercial buildings, said the release. Kalesnikoff’s new mass timber facility in Castlegar, which went into operation last year, is ramping up production, said Andrew Stiffman, the company’s vice-president of construction services.
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials, convening in a wartime setting that began less than three weeks ago, are expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday even as a fresh jump in oil prices and data showing a rise in some aspects of inflation even before the start of the war with Iran may prompt them to recast the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation and monetary policy. New projections to be released by the U.S. central bank at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) will show how policymakers assess the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch an open-ended conflict in the Middle East, but the environment remained volatile even as they began the second day of their latest two-day policy meeting. …US producer prices rose in February by 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Rising producer prices can feed into retail costs and signal higher future inflation.
WASHINGTON — The US economy, hobbled by last fall’s 43-day government shutdown, advanced at an unexpectedly sluggish 0.7% annual rate from October through December, the Commerce Department reported Friday in a big downgrade of its initial estimate. Growth in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — was down sharply from 4.4% in last year’s third quarter and 3.8% in the second. And the fourth-quarter number was half the government’s first estimate of 1.4%; economists had expected the revision to go the other way — and show stronger growth. Federal government spending and investment, clobbered by the shutdown, plunged at a 16.7% rate, hacking 1.16 percentage points off fourth-quarter growth. For all of 2025, GDP grew 2.1%, solid but down from an initial estimate of 2.2% and from 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% 2023.
US applications for unemployment benefits inched down modestly last week as layoffs remain at historically healthy levels despite a weakening job market. The number of Americans filing for jobless aid for the week ending March 7 fell by 1,000 to 213,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet forecast 215,000 new benefit applications. Filings for unemployment benefits are viewed as a proxy for U.S. layoffs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the job market. While weekly layoffs have remained in a historically low range mostly between 200,000 and 250,000 for the past few years, a number of high-profile companies have announced job cuts recently, including Morgan Stanley,Block, UPSand Amazon in recent weeks. …For now, the U.S. job market appears stuck in what economists call a “low-hire, low-fire” state that has kept the unemployment rate historically low, but has left those out of work struggling to find a new job.
Unfortunately for retailers in the home sector, 2026 will likely look an awful lot like 2025. …While the pandemic offered a temporary financial boost, broad economic uncertainty caused many consumers to pull back on discretionary spending, leading to a decline in the high-ticket purchases. …The category has consistently seen year-over-year sales declines, according to the US Department of Commerce. …As was the case over the past few years, the weak housing market — driven by a lack of inventory and elevated interest rates — poses one of the biggest threats to the home sector this year. “The housing market is just stuck in neutral,” Zak Stambor said. “By and large, just few people are moving, and the lack of housing turnover means there’s a smaller-than-normal market for home goods.” “It’s the uncertainty that’s really driving the hesitation on the consumer side — where they should go, when they should buy, what they should buy in this market.”
A recent 
Mortgage rates continued to decline in February, dipping below 6% in the last week of February. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.05% last month, 5 basis points (bps) lower than January. Meanwhile, the average 15-year rate declined only a basis point to 5.43%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year and 15-year rates are lower by 79 bps and 60 bps, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, held relatively steady for most of February with an average 4.18% – a marginal decrease of 2 bps from the previous month. However, yields fell significantly in the final week of February. …Following the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the 10-year Treasury yield has shown signs of reversing course. Investors are closely monitoring how protracted the conflict may become and its potential implications for global energy markets. If oil prices rise significantly, inflation pressures could intensify, potentially pushing Treasury yields higher.
If enacted, the new legislation would aim to streamline tariff exclusions for goods used in home construction, help stabilize material pricing, and support efforts to expand housing supply nationwide U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D‑NV) and Chris Coons (D‑DE) have introduced legislation aimed at easing construction costs and addressing America’s housing affordability crisis by excluding key homebuilding materials from tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The Housing Tariff Exclusion Act would create a process to automatically exempt many building materials from current and future tariffs and allow importers to apply for exemptions on other essential construction inputs. The bill comes amid ongoing concerns that tariffs on imported materials such as lumber, steel, and other construction inputs have driven up costs for builders, contributing to higher home prices and exacerbating supply shortages. …The bill has garnered support from industry groups including the NAHB.
European laminate flooring manufacturer sales declined 6.50% to 263.4 million m2 in 2025, according to the European Producers of Laminate Flooring (EPLF). The sales decreased from 281.6 million m2 in 2024. EPLF said the trend reflects the broader slowdown observed across construction markets, particularly in new residential builds and renovation activity, which continued to weigh on demand throughout the year. EPLF said the 2025 figures point to a “year of adjustment” for the laminate flooring sector. “While global volumes declined, demand remained comparatively more stable in the core European markets, which continue to represent the majority of EPLF sales,” it said. “Regional differences indicate that market conditions evolved at different speeds rather than following a single global pattern.” Europe accounted for more than 80% of total sales by EPLF member countries, confirming its position as the core market for the laminate flooring.
Timber imports into the United Kingdom declined to their lowest level in more than ten years during 2025. The data was reported by Timber Development UK (TDUK), the industry body representing the national timber supply chain. According to the organisation’s latest market review, total timber imports reached 9.1 million cubic metres in 2025. This figure represented a 2.2% decrease compared with the previous year. …Timber demand in the United Kingdom has now remained relatively flat for four consecutive years. …Softwood remains the dominant component of the UK timber market. The material accounts for approximately 61% of total timber imports. However, softwood imports declined by 4% during 2025. …Several traditional suppliers exported smaller volumes to the UK. Other suppliers partially offset these declines. Imports from Latvia and Finland increased during the same period. …Performance within the engineered wood category was uneven. Laminated veneer lumber and timber I-beams both recorded steady growth during the year.