Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Canada’s housing supply made strides in 2025 amid weak demand, condo struggles

by Sammy Hudes
The Canadian Press in Richmond News
March 11, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s housing agency says the country made “meaningful” supply gains last year thanks to record rental construction and more “missing middle” type housing, however short-term imbalances remain for several markets. Housing construction rose 6% year-over-year in 2025 to 259,000 units, with activity exceeding the 10-year average across most major markets, according to CMHC’s spring housing supply report. …Rentals drove overall new housing supply in Canada last year, with the number of rental units under construction nearly doubling the 10-year average. …The trend led to increased vacancy rates and slower rent price rises compared with recent years. The report also highlighted the growth of “missing middle” housing — a term referring to gentle-to-medium density types such as accessory suites, multiplexes, row homes, stacked townhouses and low-rise apartments, which have often been under-represented in new supply. …Despite some encouraging trends, particularly for the rental market, housing construction for the home ownership market weakened overall.

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Canada Home Construction Set for Multiyear Slump, Agency Says

By Paul Vieira
The Wall Street Journal in Market Screener
March 11, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

OTTAWA–Housing starts in Canada are set to decline over the next three years due to higher construction costs, weaker demand and elevated levels of unsold inventory, the country’s housing agency said Wednesday. The outlook from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. represents another setback for the country’s residential real-estate sector, where prices and sales have declined following a prolonged period of strength fueled by immigration. It’s also a sign that, unlike in the recent past, housing-market activity won’t help propel the Canadian economy into a higher gear. Canada’s economy is struggling with slow growth, with manufacturers under duress from hefty U.S. tariffs. Furthermore, firms are scaling back spending and hiring plans as the future of a North American trade treaty is in doubt. CMHC said in a report that it expects housing starts to drop during the 2026-to-2028 period. [See video of CMHC Chief Economist]

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Canfor Pulp announces Special Meeting results.

Canfor Pulp Products Inc.
March 6, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

VANCOUVER, BC – Canfor Pulp Products announced that at the special meeting of the holders of common shares in the capital of the Company held earlier, the Shareholders voted in favour of approving the special resolution authorizing the previously announced arrangement whereby Canfor Corporation will acquire all of the issued and outstanding Common Shares that it and its affiliates do not already own by way of a statutory plan of arrangement. …The Arrangement was approved by 96.02% of the Shareholders and 84.42% of the Shareholders excluding any votes of the Purchaser and its affiliates and any other Shareholders whose votes were required to be excluded. …Assuming that all remaining approvals are obtained and all other remaining conditions precedent to the completion of the Arrangement are satisfied or waived, the Company anticipates that the Arrangement will be completed on or about March 17, 2026.

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Roman Building Materials reports Q4, 2025 net earnings of $11 million

Doman Building Materials Group Ltd.
March 5, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

VANCOUVER, BC — Doman Building Materials Group announced its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. For the year ended December 31, 2025, consolidated revenues increased to $3.1 billion, compared to $2.7… EBITDA amounted to $256.4 million, compared to EBITDA of $192.2 million. …For the three-month period ended December 31, 2025, revenues amounted to $644.2 million when compared to $707.8 million in the same period in 2024. The decrease was mainly due to declines in construction materials pricing in the US during the quarter, as well as lower average year-over-year pricing. …EBITDA amounted to $44.3 million, compared to EBITDA of $51.0 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $51.9 million in 2024. Net earnings for the three-month period ended December 31, 2025, were $11.0 million versus $8.3 million.

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Canfor reports Q4, 2025 net loss of $390.5 million

Canfor Corporation
March 5, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

VANCOUVER, B.C. – Canfor Corporation reported its fourth quarter of 2025 results. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company reported an operating loss of $415.9 million and a net loss of $390.5 million. Highlights include: An asset write-down and impairment charge of approximately $320.4 million… of which $213.9 million relates to the Company’s lumber segment and $106.5 million relates to the pulp and paper segment; Lumber production was up 2% from the previous quarter, driven primarily by the full quarter contribution from the recently acquired Hedin sawmills in Europe. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, said, “Our lumber business continued to face significant headwinds in the fourth quarter, with ongoing market weakness combined with elevated duty and tariff costs weighing on our results.” …Yurkovich added, “Our pulp segment also remained under significant pressure this quarter, as global economic uncertainty, weak market demand and limited access to economic fibre in British Columbia continued to weigh on performance.”

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Canfor Pulp reports Q4, 2025 net loss of $133.6 million

Canfor Pulp Products Inc.
March 5, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

VANCOUVER, BC – Canfor Pulp Products reported its fourth quarter of 2025 results. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company reports an operating loss of $85.6 million; net loss of $133.6 million. After taking into consideration adjusting and one-time items totaling $57.5 million, the adjusted operating loss for Q4 2025 was $28.1 million, compared to a similarly adjusted operating loss of $11.1 million in Q3 2025. …Jointly with Canfor, the Company announced in December 2025 it had entered into an Arrangement Agreement, where Canfor would acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Canfor Pulp not already owned by Canfor, for either $0.50 in cash consideration or 0.0425 of a common share of Canfor. As announced in February 2026, Management’s forecasts indicate a breach of financial covenants is highly probableas early as March 31, 2026. Should the Proposed Transaction not close, the Company would re-engage with itslenders for further temporary relief while it works to undertake a restructuring process.

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Canada sawmills cut lumber production 5% in 2025

The Lesprom Network
March 4, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canadian sawmills produced 46,297 thousand m3 of total softwood and hardwood lumber in 2025, down from 48,753 thousand m3 in 2024, and shipped 46,077 thousand m3 in 2025, down from 48,517 thousand m3 in 2024, based on new data from Statistics Canada. In December 2025, lumber production fell 21% from November to 2,905 thousand m3, and shipments fell 14.2% to 2,997 thousand m3. Compared with December 2024, production fell 12.8% and shipments fell 5.9%. Nova Scotia posted the largest provincial decline in production on a full-year basis, falling 2.9% to 954 thousand m3 in 2025 from the 2024 level. Quebec production dropped 1.72% to 12,83 thousand m3 on a full-year basis. Saskatchewan production rose 118% to 658 thousand m3 on the same-month comparison, and Newfoundland and Labrador production rose 98% to 164 thousand m3. Quebec had the largest provincial decline in shipments on a full-year basis, falling 8.4% to 12,141 thousand m3 in 2025. Canada’s year-on-year lumber production decline steepened in the fourth quarter, averaging a 9.09% drop in October–December.

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Where are Lumber Prices Heading into the 2026 Construction Season?

By Andrew Hecht
Barchart
February 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber is a critical ingredient in new home construction, so interest rates influence the path of least resistance for wood prices. …Changes at the Fed favor lumber futures… the new Chairman, with the administration’s support, will likely favor reducing the rate from the current 3.625% over the coming months. Two factors favor lower rates. Inflation is currently below 3%, and the most recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could push inflation indicators even lower. …If the long-term rate follows short-term rates in 2026, demand for new 30-year mortgages and new homebuilding could increase, driving higher lumber demand and higher wood prices. …The daily continuous physical lumber futures contract chart highlights the bearish trend of lower highs. …I am bullish on lumber prices and expect them to break above the first resistance at $618.50, driven by seasonality and the prospects of falling U.S. interest rates.

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Canadian economy contracted 0.6% in Q4 to cap volatile 2025

By Craig Lord
The Canadian Press in Business in Vancouver
February 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Statistics Canada says the economy capped off a volatile year with a contraction in the final quarter of 2025. The agency said that real gross domestic product declined 0.6% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, falling short of expectations from the Bank of Canada and most economists for flat growth. Real GDP per capita was unchanged in the fourth quarter. StatCan said the main reason for the contraction was businesses drawing down their inventories. The economy swung back and forth between gains and losses every quarter last year as sharp changes in exports tied to US tariffs drove volatility in GDP data. …The agency said real GDP rose 1.7% in 2025 overall, cooling from 2% growth in each of the previous two years and marking the slowest pace of annual growth since 2016 outside the COVID-19 pandemic. “Lower exports, particularly to the United States, were the main contributor to the slower rise in GDP in 2025”.

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Lumber futures fall to 6-week low

Trading Economics
February 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell toward $550 per thousand board feet, marking a six-week low, as a stagnant North American housing sector failed to absorb heavy seasonal inventories. Demand weakened as January data showed a 7% year over year drop in single family starts and an 8.4% decline in units under construction. High 6.25% mortgage rates and a 5.8% slump in Canadian home sales during January 2026 further stalled new project starts. On the supply side, regional inventory remained bloated. While BC curtailments continued harsh winter storms in the US South halted jobsite activity more than mill output, creating a distributor logjam and forcing aggressive dealer discounting to clear yard space. Additionally, while Trump’s administration 45% softwood duties were meant to buoy prices they instead stifled demand by adding nearly $17,500 to average home costs. This eroded the builder confidence needed to clear current supply.

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Three Canadian Lumber Stocks to Watch Right Now

By Christopher Liew, The Motley Fool Canada
The Globe and Mail
February 24, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The strong momentum and bull run of basic materials carried over into 2026 and appears poised to be the TSX’s top-performing sector for the second consecutive year. While mining heavyweights continue to lead the surge, lumber stocks are delivering market-beating returns. Stella-Jones, Canfor Corporation, and Doman Building Materials are worth watching right now. These companies offer operational leverage and have maintained resilience amid persistent price volatility and trade restrictions.

  • Stella-Jones is close to eclipsing its 52-week high of $101.31. …The multi-year demand for utility poles and railway ties is a strong tailwind, driven by replacement and maintenance.
  • Canfor manufactures low-carbon forest products. …The lumber stock is up 19.4% year to date, notwithstanding the significant operating losses throughout 2025.
  • Doman attracts income-oriented investors for its generous payout. Canada’s only fully integrated national distributor… of building materials and home renovation products.

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Feds earmark $5.5M for new B.C. mass timber factory

By Jami Makan
Business in Vancouver
March 4, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada West

A large B.C.-based mass timber company is receiving $5.5 million in federal funding to expand its production capacity, the government’s latest support for prefabrication as a means to boost housing supply. Castlegar-based Kalesnikoff Mass Timber Inc. is receiving the funding from Pacific Economic Development Canada’s Regional Tariff Response Initiative. The initiative is investing more than $13 million in 10 projects across B.C.’s southern Interior, helping businesses impacted by tariffs, said a March 2 press release. Kalesnikoff is receiving a repayable investment of $5.5 million to help purchase new equipment to make prefabricated housing components used in multi-family housing, schools, daycares and commercial buildings, said the release. Kalesnikoff’s new mass timber facility in Castlegar, which went into operation last year, is ramping up production, said Andrew Stiffman, the company’s vice-president of construction services.

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Taiga reports Q4, 2025 net loss of $9.1 million

By Taiga Building Products Ltd.
Cision Newswire
February 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

BURNABY, BC — Taiga Building Products reported its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. …The Company’s consolidated net sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 were $359.6 million compared to $389.0 million in the same quarter last year. The decrease in sales was largely due to lower average lumber prices and a decline in sales volume during the quarter. Net earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 decreased to a loss of $9.1 million, compared to net income of $6.6 million in the same period last year, primarily due to a $20.5 million non-cash write-off of goodwill and intangible assets related to Taiga’s subsidiary in Washington State. …The Company’s consolidated net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025 were $1,631.8 million compared to $1,634.4 million last fiscal year. Net earnings for the year ended December 31, 2025 decreased to $28.6 million from $47.6 million last fiscal year.

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Stella-Jones reports Q4, 2025 net income of $50 million

By Mike Crawley
CBC News
February 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

MONTREAL – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. …Sales for the fourth quarter of 2025 amounted to $727 million, compared to sales of $730 million for the same period in 2024. …Pressure-treated wood sales decreased $14 million, or 2% due to a decrease in railway ties volumes and softer residential lumber demand, partially offset by higher wood utility poles sales driven by stronger demand. Logs and lumber sales decreased by $15 million, mainly driven by less trading activity, compared to the fourth quarter last year. Q4 net income was$50 million compared to $52 million in Q4, 2024. …Eric Vachon, President and CEO of Stella-Jones, said “The acquisitions of Locweld and Brooks positions us to serve a broader transmission and distribution market. …Entering 2026, we are building on this momentum with an investment to expand our steel lattice structure business in the U.S. with the construction of a greenfield manufacturing facility.”

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Cascades reports Q4, 2025 net earnings if $37 million

Cascades Inc.
February 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

KINGSEY FALLS, Quebec — Cascades reported its unaudited financial results for the three-month period and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $1,197 million (compared with $1,238 million in Q3 2025 and $1,211 million in Q4 2024); Net earnings of $36 million (compared with $29 million in Q3, 2025 and -$13 million in Q4, 2024). For the full year 2025, Cascades reported sales of $4,776 million (compared with $4,701 million in 2024); and Net earnings of $70 million (compared with -31 million in 2024). …Hugues Simon, President and CEO, commented: our tissue operations did not meet efficiency and logistics execution objectives in the quarter. These effects were compounded by an unplanned power outage at one of our facilities that further impacted production levels, supply chain efficiency and added incremental operating costs of approximately $6 million in the period. The countermeasures we have already put in place to address these issues are generating positive traction. 

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US Custom Home Building Expanded in 2025

By robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 13, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In a year that saw a more than 6% decline for overall single-family housing starts, custom home building posted a gain. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. With spec home building down and the stock market up, custom building expanded its market share. According to NAHB’s analysis of Census data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey, there were 45,000 total custom building starts during the fourth quarter of 2025. This is down 4% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024. However, for 2025 as a whole, custom single-family housing starts totaled 186,000 homes, a 3% increase compared to 2024 (181,000). Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is almost 20% of total single-family starts. 

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US economy expanded at sluggish 0.7% in fourth quarter, government says, downgrading first estimate

By Paul Wiseman
The Associated Press
March 13, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON — The US economy, hobbled by last fall’s 43-day government shutdown, advanced at an unexpectedly sluggish 0.7% annual rate from October through December, the Commerce Department reported Friday in a big downgrade of its initial estimate. Growth in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — was down sharply from 4.4% in last year’s third quarter and 3.8% in the second. And the fourth-quarter number was half the government’s first estimate of 1.4%; economists had expected the revision to go the other way — and show stronger growth. Federal government spending and investment, clobbered by the shutdown, plunged at a 16.7% rate, hacking 1.16 percentage points off fourth-quarter growth. For all of 2025, GDP grew 2.1%, solid but down from an initial estimate of 2.2% and from 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% 2023.

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US Inflation Steady Before War

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 11, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

After months of downward trend, inflation held steady at an eight-month low in February. …Higher oil prices will likely translate into higher gasoline costs and impact other sectors associated with transportation including airline tickets. This renewed inflation concern would complicate Fed policy especially given the recent weaker-than-expected job report. Additionally, lingering effects from government shutdown will continue to suppress the shelter index through April. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% in February from a year ago, unchanged from January and matching the lowest level since May 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest report. The “core” CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased by 2.5% over the past twelve months, also unchanged from January. The housing shelter index, which makes up a large portion of “core” CPI, rose 3.0% over the year, holding steady from last month. 

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US housing starts up 7.2% in January to 1.49 million. Single-family housing drop 2.8% to 935,000

By Bill McBride
Calculated Risk Newsletter
March 12, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for January today, but we are still waiting for the February data (not scheduled yet). From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,487,000. This is 7.2% above the revised December estimate of 1,387,000 and is 9.5% above the January 2025 rate of 1,358,000. Single-family housing starts in January were at a rate of 935,000; this is 2.8% below the revised December figure of 962,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 524,000. …Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,376,000. This is 5.4% below the revised December rate of 1,455,000 and is 5.8% below the January 2025 rate of 1,460,000. Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate of 873,000; this is 0.9% below the revised December figure of 881,000. 

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US applications for unemployment benefits inch down to 213,000 as layoffs remain stable

By Matt Ott
The Associated Press
March 12, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US applications for unemployment benefits inched down modestly last week as layoffs remain at historically healthy levels despite a weakening job market. The number of Americans filing for jobless aid for the week ending March 7 fell by 1,000 to 213,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet forecast 215,000 new benefit applications. Filings for unemployment benefits are viewed as a proxy for U.S. layoffs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the job market. While weekly layoffs have remained in a historically low range mostly between 200,000 and 250,000 for the past few years, a number of high-profile companies have announced job cuts recently, including Morgan Stanley,Block, UPSand Amazon in recent weeks. …For now, the U.S. job market appears stuck in what economists call a “low-hire, low-fire” state that has kept the unemployment rate historically low, but has left those out of work struggling to find a new job.

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In the home sector, ‘the weak will get weaker’ this year

By Caroline Jansen
Retail Dive
March 10, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Unfortunately for retailers in the home sector, 2026 will likely look an awful lot like 2025. …While the pandemic offered a temporary financial boost, broad economic uncertainty caused many consumers to pull back on discretionary spending, leading to a decline in the high-ticket purchases. …The category has consistently seen year-over-year sales declines, according to the US Department of Commerce. …As was the case over the past few years, the weak housing market — driven by a lack of inventory and elevated interest rates — poses one of the biggest threats to the home sector this year. “The housing market is just stuck in neutral,” Zak Stambor said. “By and large, just few people are moving, and the lack of housing turnover means there’s a smaller-than-normal market for home goods.” “It’s the uncertainty that’s really driving the hesitation on the consumer side — where they should go, when they should buy, what they should buy in this market.”

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U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February. Construction employment declined by 11,000 jobs

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 6, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US labor market weakened in February, as payroll employment declined and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The cooling labor market could place the Federal Reserve in a challenging position as policymakers weigh slower job growth against inflation pressures from rising oil prices. Wage growth accelerated slightly in February, with average hourly earnings rising 3.8% year-over-year. …Importantly, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases. …Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February. …Employment in the overall construction sector declined by 11,000 jobs in February, following an upwardly revised gain of 48,000 in January. Within the industry, residential construction shed 7,100 jobs, while non-residential construction lost 3,800 positions. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in February. The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative, at a loss of 533 per month, reflecting losses in three of the past six months.

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Global stocks sink as oil hits $100 per barrel for first time since 2022

By John Towfighi
CNN Business
March 9, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

NEW YORK — Stocks fell and oil prices traded above $100 per barrel Monday as investors grappled with a potential energy crisis caused by the war with Iran. …Stocks have been jolted by nerves about the Middle East conflict disrupting the global flow of oil and reigniting inflation at a time when the US labor market appears to be on shaky ground. Oil prices Monday surged to their highest level since mid-2022 when markets were rocked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. US crude oil surged 11%, to $101 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was also up 11%, to $103 per barrel. …The war with Iran has effectively halted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s coast through which 20% of global oil consumption flows. …Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, jumped 5% and hit its highest level since April, when markets were rocked by uncertainty about tariffs. 

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Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping U.S. Housing Demand and Industry Health

By Rose Quint
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 5, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

A recent NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey asked builders to assess the impact of 14 major trends and forces on the health of the industry and housing demand over the next 10 years. …At one end, most builders consider five forces as strong or somewhat negative long-term risks to the industry and housing demand: Government debt levels: 82%, Declining fertility rate: 78%, Long-term inflation outlook: 70%, Declining marriage rate: 67%. Energy costs: 61%. At the same time, builders identified several forces they expect to have a strong or somewhat positiveimpact on the health of the home building industry and housing demand over the next decade, led by structural and technological shifts: Aging housing stock: 73%, Work-from-home trends: 65%, Artificial intelligence: 52%, Modular and panelized construction: 45%. …For additional details and results, please consult the full survey report.

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U.S. lost 92,000 jobs last month and unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

By Paul Wiseman
The associated Press in PBS News
March 6, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON — American employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs last month, a sign that the labor market remains under strain. The unemployment rate blipped up to 4.4%. The Labor Department reported Friday that hiring deteriorated from January, when companies, nonprofits and government agencies added a healthy 126,000 jobs. Economists had expected 60,000 new jobs in February. Revisions also cut 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls. The job market had been expected to rebound this year from a lackluster 2025 when the economy, buffeted by President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policies and the lingering effects of high interest rates, generated just 15,000 jobs a month. And January hiring had come in above expectations. …Construction companies cut 11,000 jobs last month, which likely reflects reflect frigid weather. …Factories cut 12,000 jobs and have now lost jobs for 14 of the last 15 months. …The outlook for the job market – and the entire economy – is clouded by the war with Iran.

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Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally

By Catherine Koh
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 4, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Mortgage rates continued to decline in February, dipping below 6% in the last week of February. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.05% last month, 5 basis points (bps) lower than January. Meanwhile, the average 15-year rate declined only a basis point to 5.43%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year and 15-year rates are lower by 79 bps and 60 bps, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, held relatively steady for most of February with an average 4.18% – a marginal decrease of 2 bps from the previous month. However, yields fell significantly in the final week of February. …Following the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the 10-year Treasury yield has shown signs of reversing course. Investors are closely monitoring how protracted the conflict may become and its potential implications for global energy markets. If oil prices rise significantly, inflation pressures could intensify, potentially pushing Treasury yields higher.

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US Housing Supply Gap Exceeds 4 Million Homes in 2025

By Hannah Jones and Danielle Hale
Realtor.com
March 3, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Since the early 2010s, more than a decade of underbuilding has constrained housing supply, contributing to sustained home price growth and pushing homeownership further out of reach, particularly for younger households. One clear consequence of this structural shortage is persistently low vacancy. The homeowner vacancy rate fell to a historic low of 0.7% in the second quarter of 2023. Although it has since risen modestly to 1.2% as of the fourth quarter of 2025, it remains well below long-term norms. Rental vacancy has improved somewhat amid an influx of new multifamily supply, reaching 7.2%, which is closer to historical averages but still reflective of a relatively tight market. …In 2025, new home construction fell short of household formations, widening the U.S. housing supply gap to an estimated 4.03 million homes. Home completions declined from the prior year’s near-record pace, driven largely by a slowdown in multifamily completions. 

 

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Builder sentiment about the state of the U.S. housing remains cautious.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
March 2, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Kevin Mason

Last week we attended the 2026 International Builders’ Show (IBS) in Orlando, FL, and, while there was much excitement among the ~110,000 attendees around new product launches and the use of AI in homebuilding, sentiment about the current state of the US housing market seemed rather cautious. …Regarding the upcoming spring building season, most of the contacts we spoke with felt it was still a month too early to tell if we will get a noteworthy lift in demand this year (the past three years have disappointed). However, a few lamented the fact that the Fed looks set to hold rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, and felt that a further 25bps cut would have helped boost the U.S. housing market heading into the spring.While there may be some reasons for cautious optimism while looking at starts and new-home sales, existing-home sales disappointed in January, declining from a 12-month high of 4.27MM (adjusted) to just 3.91MM—their lowest level since September 2024. 

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New Bill Would Prevent Tariffs From Driving Up U.S. Housing Costs

By Eric Peck
National Mortgage Professional
March 2, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

If enacted, the new legislation would aim to streamline tariff exclusions for goods used in home construction, help stabilize material pricing, and support efforts to expand housing supply nationwide U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D‑NV) and Chris Coons (D‑DE) have introduced legislation aimed at easing construction costs and addressing America’s housing affordability crisis by excluding key homebuilding materials from tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The Housing Tariff Exclusion Act would create a process to automatically exempt many building materials from current and future tariffs and allow importers to apply for exemptions on other essential construction inputs. The bill comes amid ongoing concerns that tariffs on imported materials such as lumber, steel, and other construction inputs have driven up costs for builders, contributing to higher home prices and exacerbating supply shortages. …The bill has garnered support from industry groups including the NAHB.

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Mortgage rates jump sharply higher after Iran strikes, reversing last week’s decline

By Diana Olick
CNBCB
March 2, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

After falling below 6%, matching their lowest level in several years, mortgage rates reversed course Monday, hitting their highest point in two weeks. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan rose 13 basis points to 6.12%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It had fallen to a recent low of 5.99% on Feb. 23 and pretty much sat there all week. The drop was welcome news as the all-important spring housing market gets underway. Potential buyers have been sidelined by high home prices and concerns over the broader economy. Mortgage rates crossing into the 5% range broke an emotional barrier for some, suggesting buyers might jump at the opportunity. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which rose back above 4% on Monday. The growing conflict with Iran caused a spike in oil prices, raising inflation worries and pushing yields higher.

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Dow drops 1,200 points as oil surges, bond yields climb in response to deepening Iran conflict

By Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor & Pia Singh
CNBC News
March 3, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

US equities tumbled on Tuesday, undoing a Monday equity comeback, as oil prices spiked again and traders began to worry the U.S.-Iran conflict could drag on longer than anticipated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,238 points, or 2.5%. If that holds, it would mark the blue-chip index’s first 1,000-point decline since April 10, 2025. The S&P 500 slipped 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.3%. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, topped $84 a barrel, up 8% Tuesday following a 6% spike Monday. WTI crude jumped 8% to above $77 a barrel after a 6% jump as well on Monday. Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander said the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most vital transit route for crude oil — is closed and that Iran would set ablaze ships attempting the route, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media.

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Price Growth for Building Materials Slows to Start the Year

By Jesse Wade
The NAHB Eye on Housing
February 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Residential building material prices rose at a slower rate in January, according to the latest Producer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was the first decline in the rate of price growth since April of last year.  The price index for inputs to new residential construction rose 0.7% in January and was up 3.3% from last year. The price of goods used in new residential construction was up 0.9% over the month and 2.4% from last year. Meanwhile, the price for services was up 0.3% over the month and up 4.7% from last year. …The largest year-over-year price increases continue to show in metal products. …Price declines for materials over the year are concentrated among wood products with prices for particleboard and fiberboard down 24.4%, treated wood products down 5.0%, and softwood lumber down 3.3%.

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US Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% for the First Time in 3.5 Years

Freddie Mac
February 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

MCLEAN, Virginia — Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.98%. “For the first time in three and a half years, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped into the 5% range, falling even lower than last week’s milestone,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This rate, combined with the improving availability of homes for sale, is meaningful and will drive more potential buyers into the market for spring homebuying season.” The 30-year FRM averaged 5.98% as of February 26, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 6.01%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.76%. The 15-year FRM averaged 5.44%, up from last week when it averaged 5.35%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.94%.

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Global Development Trends of the Paper Industry

By Amy Chu
ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
February 25, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

The global pulp and paper industry is entering a new phase of structural transformation. While overall growth remains steady, regional divergence is becoming more pronounced, product demand is shifting, and trade and regulatory pressures are reshaping traditional expansion paths. At the same time, mergers and acquisitions are increasingly serving as a strategic tool for companies seeking scale, resilience, and access to new markets. … From 2009 to 2028, the global pulp and paper industry has maintained steady growth and is expected to continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3%. However, from a regional perspective, this growth is far from uniform. Significant differences exist in both capacity scale and growth rates across regions. Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region globally. By 2028, capacity is expected to grow exponentially since 2009 levels. While growth is projected to moderate between 2025 and 2028 due to a slowdown in new investments, the region will continue to lead global expansion.

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Los Angeles Builders Talk Tariffs

By Kennedy Zak
LA Business Journal
March 2, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

Real estate professionals active in the Los Angeles market are bracing themselves for another wave of tariff-induced uncertainty following the US Supreme Court’s ruling. …Despite the Feb. 20 ruling, President Donald Trump has been adamant that he will find other avenues to impose his tariffs. Trump’s tariff policies have already caused upheaval for local businesses, and now the country’s heightened situation with tariffs will further disrupt L.A.’s real estate market, according to experts across development, manufacturing and finance. “This is a very shifting landscape for American companies,” said Ken Calligar, founder of RSG 3•D. …Garret Weyand, at Cedar Street Partners, said, “If costs are too high because of these tariffs, then projects don’t get built.” Banks will likely make borrowers increase the amount of equity so that the bank is covered in the event tariffs and inflation raise project costs.

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Boise Cascade reports Q4, 2025 net income of $8.7 million

Boise Cascade Company
February 23, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

BOISE, IDAHO – Boise Cascade reported fourth quarter net income of $8.7 million on sales of $1.5 billion. For the full year 2025, Boise Cascade reported net income of $132.8 million on sales of $6.4 billion. Fourth quarter and full year earnings were negatively impacted by approximately $6 million after-tax, related to an accrual for legal proceedings in our Building Materials Distribution segment. “The fourth quarter reflected the expected seasonal softness in demand,” said Nate Jorgensen, CEO. …Looking ahead, we are well positioned to capture opportunities when housing starts recover. …As I prepare to retire, I am deeply grateful for the Board of Directors’ support and for the strength of our leadership team. I have great confidence in Jeff Strom as he steps into the role of CEO.”

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Rayonier Advanced Materials reports Q4, 2025 net loss of $21 million

Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (RYAM)
March 3, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

JACKSONVILLE, Florida — Rayonier Advanced Materials reported results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. Highlights include: Net Sales for the fourth quarter of $417 million, down $5 million from prior year quarter, Loss from Continuing Operations for the fourth quarter of $21 million, a decline of $5 million from prior year quarter, and Adjusted EBITDA from Continuing Operations for the fourth quarter of $46 million, down $5 million from prior year quarter. …Scott Sutton, President and CEO of RYAM. “Various disruptions and a difficult demand environment pressured volumes, earnings and cash generation, and we delivered full-year revenue of $1.5 billion, Adjusted EBITDA of $133 million and negative Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $88 million — performance we are not satisfied with and cannot repeat. In 2026, our focus is sharpening around disciplined execution and cash.”

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Maine logging and trucking contributes $534M to economy, study shows

By Laurier Schreiber
Mainebiz Daily
February 27, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: US East

Logging and forest trucking industry added an estimated $1.3 billion to the Northeast region in 2024, with Maine contributing $534 million of that amount, according to a study released this week. Maine’s figure included $283 million in total labor earnings and an estimated $23 million in state tax revenues. The Pine Tree State numbers represented 2,744 direct logging and trucking jobs, along with an additional 1,715 indirect jobs, for a total of about 4,460 jobs statewide. The Augusta-based Professional Logging Contractors of the Northeast released the results of its first-ever regional study on Wednesday, conducted by Wallace Economic Advisers LLC. It showed that in 2024, logging and forest trucking supported around 6,930 jobs in the region, generated $393 million in labor income, pumped an estimated $61 million into state and local tax coffers, and remained critical to a range of industries and communities.

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Japan Housing Starts Drop Less than Estimated

Trading Economics
February 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Japan’s housing starts fell 0.4% yoy in January 2026, easing from a 1.3% drop in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 1.6% decline. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, though the pace was the mildest since July 2024. Rental housing starts declined at a slower rate (-1.5% vs -3.4% in December). Meanwhile, owner-occupied homes rebounded (6.6% vs -1.8%), as did prefabricated housing (5.1% vs -6.1%). Starts for two-by-four homes also accelerated (8.7% vs 2.8%). In contrast, built-for-sale housing fell 4.8%, reversing a 1.9% increase in December.

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Drax Beats Forecasts Despite Lower Profit, Impairment Hit

By Eamon Akil Farhat
Bloomberg News in the Financial Post
February 26, 2026
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Drax Group Plc’s profit declined last year but exceeded analyst estimates, helping lift the shares to their highest level in almost two decades despite significant impairment charges. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization totaled £947 million ($1.3 billion), beating analyst estimates for £913.7 million. Citigroup Inc. analyst Jenny Ping cited lower pellet costs and record generation at its main biomass plant as supporting the result. The figure was still 11% lower than a year earlier, which Drax attributed to weaker power prices. The company’s share price rose as much as 6.2% to the highest since October 2006 before paring gains. …Drax reaffirmed its target of £600 million to £700 million of annual adjusted EBITDA after 2027 and said it expects 2026 earnings to align with analyst forecasts of about £662 million. The company also expects to return £1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks from 2025 until 2031, with £2 billion invested in growth areas.

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