Lumber futures traded above $650 per thousand board feet, hovering near April highs driven by tightening US sawmill output and dwindling import volumes, both of which are near their lowest levels in half a decade. Domestic production in the first quarter slipped year-on-year, and imports, including softwood lumber from Canada, have contracted sharply, leaving US framing material availability at its leanest since 2019. At the same time, builders are contending with looming tariff hikes that could push duties on Canadian lumber from roughly 14.5% today toward the mid-30s, adding several thousand dollars to the cost of new homes. Although a modest pull-back in construction activity has softened recent gains, overall demand remains sufficient to absorb current supply, and without a rapid expansion in US mill capacity or alternative sourcing, these supply constraints, compounded by rising trade barriers, are likely to sustain upward pressure on lumber prices in the months ahead.
OTTAWA — Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% in June, meeting analysts’ expectations, as increases in the price of automobiles and clothing and footwear pushed the index higher, data showed on Tuesday. The consumer price index was at 1.7% in the prior month. Statistics Canada said on a monthly basis the CPI increased 0.1%, matching analysts’ forecasts. It is for the third month in a row that the CPI has been under 2%, or the mid-point of Bank of Canada’s inflation target range. This is the last major economic indicator to be released before the Bank of Canada’s rates decision later this month. The slight rise in prices across many segments, along with a strong jobs number last week, is likely to take away any incentive to cut interest rates, economists had earlier predicted. …Shelter prices rose by 2.9%, its first drop below 3% in more than four years.
A new Canada-US trade deal will likely carry forward the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement tariff exemptions shielding most Canadian exports from American tariffs, says Deloitte Canada chief economist Dawn Desjardins. …US President Donald Trump has set July 9 as the deadline for countries to ink a trade deal in order to avoid his “Liberation Day” tariffs. For Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed on the sidelines of the recent G7 meeting in Alberta to strike a deal by July 21. “Our baseline view assumes that at a minimum, we continue to operate with our CUSMA carve-outs. “The sounds we’re hearing seem to be moving in the right direction. Obviously, I have no inside information. It’s just an assumption that we will not be severely hit by 25 per cent tariffs across the board.” …Deloitte Canada’s latest economic forecast, published on Wednesday, calls for a “modest recession” in the second and third quarters of the year. 
President Donald Trump’s flurry of tariff letters to more two dozen countries has triggered new threats of retaliation. Key US industries are increasingly worried they are going to be collateral damage. The European Union on Monday released a targeted list of $88 billion worth of US goods it plans to tariff if it doesn’t make more progress in trade talks with Trump. Brazil, staring down a 50% duty on its exports to the US over Trump’s frustration with their domestic politics. …While the hardening battle lines in the negotiations could be part of each sides’ effort to force more concessions, domestic business groups aren’t counting on it. Instead, they are mobilizing to try and convince both the Trump administration and foreign governments that it would be a mistake to target their industries. …On Tuesday, the president dismissed the idea that the EU may go through with their proposed retaliatory tariffs.
In the second quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 59, down four points compared to the previous quarter. While this reading is still in positive territory, some remodelers, especially in the West, are seeing a slowing of activity in their markets. The second-quarter reading of 59 marks only the second time the RMI has dipped below 60 since the survey was revised in the first quarter of 2020. Higher interest rates and general economic uncertainty have affected consumer confidence and are headwinds for remodeling, but not to the extent that they have been for single-family construction, as is evident in June’s negative reading from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Marketing Index (HMI). As a result, NAHB is still forecasting solid gains for remodeling spending in 2025, followed by more modest, but still positive, growth in 2026. …The Current Conditions Index averaged 66, down five points from the previous quarter. 
Economists, researchers and analysts have warned that President Trump’s tariffs on most goods will deliver a taxing blow to consumers via higher prices. However, recent months’ economic data has shown that overall inflation has remained fairly tame. Trump touts the positive economic reports as signs that tariffs are working. However, the chorus of concern is growing: Prices are moving higher, and economists say this is just the beginning. Here’s a look at the mechanisms behind why price hikes, and hotter inflation, are a slow burn: Tariffs have been applied in a staggered manner; …Trade policy and tariffs are in flux; …Shipping takes time; …Domestic supply chains take time, too; …Inventories were loaded up before tariffs hit; …Some costs are being eaten; …Businesses are hesitant to pass on higher prices; …Awareness of goods prices is lower in summer than fall and winter; …Economic data is often lagged; …Inflation indices are comprehensive.
The top ten builders captured a record 44.7% of all new US single-family home closings in 2024, up 2.4 percentage points from 2023 (42.3%). This is the highest share ever captured by the top ten builders since NAHB began tracking BUILDER magazine data on new single-family home closings in 1989. The 2024 share constitutes 306,932 closings out of 686,000 new single-family houses sold in 2024. However, closings by the top 10 builders only represent 30.1% of new single-family home completions, a wider measure of home building that covers not-for-sale home construction. Also of note, the top 15 builders accounted for more than half of all closings (51%) for the first time ever in 2024.
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its June 2025 
Lumber from Canada? That will be another $534. Major appliances from China? Add a cool $445. New homes in the United States are set to get more expensive thanks to President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which is expected to raise the costs of a wide variety of materials that go into building houses. An NBC News analysis of building materials and import data found that the total cost of building a mid-range single-family home could rise by more than $4,000 — an estimate that industry experts who reviewed the analysis called conservative. An April survey from the National Association of Home Builders estimated tariff impacts at $10,900 per home. Neither analysis included labor costs. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said the tariffs have an impact beyond their direct cost as they send uncertainty rippling through the supply chain and leave builders unsure how to plan for the future.
New Zealand has a strong story to tell about free trade, farming and renewable forestry resources. …Given the healthy relationship between the US and New Zealand on the trade front, the temporary relief of tariffs on timber and lumber imported into the US has been welcomed. Though we realise that this tariff exemption could be short lived based on the outcome of the Section 232 investigation aimed at determining the global effects imports of timber, lumber and their derivative products have on the US supply chain. As a small niche supplier of wood products that are needed by the US domestic building market, there is a strong argument for keeping New Zealand timber and lumber imports tariff free to avoid any additional price hikes and further supply chain disruptions. …Like many, we now wait for completion of the section. 232 Investigation.
The US economy contracted in the beginning of the year at a much faster pace than previously reported, after new data factored in much weaker consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. …The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years. …Economic data released Thursday provides a clearer picture how the US economy has fared in the face of Trump’s policy shifts, which includes fresh figures on new applications for unemployment benefits, and mortgage rates.
Congressional Republicans have passed their domestic policy bill that makes sweeping changes to entitlement programs like Medicaid and SNAP, significantly increases funding for immigration enforcement efforts and cuts funding for a number of environmental programs. …In Oregon, the impacts of the legislation will be significant. An analysis …found the state would be disproportionately hit by the cuts to Medicaid. The Senate’s version of the bill would also cut funds to the state’s timber counties, and could reshape Oregonian college tuition and student loans. …Oregon will see more logging, less timber money going to local communities and less support for private forest owners. …However much more is logged, Oregon counties will not get a cut. That’s a change from current practice. Many counties in rural areas rely on a cut of revenues from timber sales on federal public lands to pay for schools, law enforcement and public infrastructure.
UK softwood traders enjoyed a period of strong trading through the first two months of Q2, supported by a rise in demand gaining momentum through both April and May. This followed on from a stable Q1 when imports increased by just under 2% against the same period in 2024. Since the beginning of this year, a number of Nordic producers were short of spruce logs for structural grades, and in many cases switched to pine. That move had a knock-on effect on the amount of redwood available for production at some mills. With good demand and some shortages, Q2 prices moved upwards, not only to the UK but other markets in Europe and the US as well. However, the UK merchants adopted a more sceptical and cautious approach. Many held back from making longer-term commitments on the forward market to ensure the recovery and stability in the market was sustainable.
Timber and forestry investment is gaining ground in Europe, as private equity increasingly shifts towards climate-aligned strategies. A recent EY report highlights growing momentum behind timber and forestry funds, previously seen as niche, now positioned as core components of sustainability-focused portfolios. Despite global private equity fundraising falling to $680 billion in 2024, the lowest since 2015, investors are favouring fewer, larger deals. Europe is leading in sustainable asset allocation, with over half of all new fund launches in Article 8 and 9 categories under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, according to Morningstar. Timber and forestry funds attracted $8.4 billion in 2024, slightly down from 2023 but above the five-year average. These funds often deliver double-digit internal rates of return, with top-performing vintages exceeding 16 percent.
UK — Housing programmes delivered by Homes England resulted in 38,308 new houses starting on site and 36,872 new homes completed between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025. This represents an increase in both starts (by 5%) and completions (by 12%) compared to the same period the previous year. 30,087 of new starts on site were for affordable houses — a 0.6% increase on the previous year, and representing 79% of all starts. …Eamonn Boylan, Chief Executive of Homes England, said: ”The statistics demonstrate the importance of programmes like the Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) to enable the delivery of these much-needed homes — and comes hot on the heels of the government committing a further £39 billion in funding to affordable homes over a 10 year period, giving confidence and certainty to the sector.”