Lumber climbed past $630 per thousand board feet, the highest level since October, amid higher effective US import costs on Canadian softwood and tighter expected supply. Prices rose despite a small reduction in preliminary antidumping and countervailing duties, because the combined tariff burden remains high at about 35.9% including the existing Section 232 levy, set to take effect in August. The market is also being driven by uncertainty ahead of final duty decisions, prompting buyers to accelerate purchases and lift near-term demand. At the same time, US domestic production is still constrained, while housing-related consumption remains structurally large, with softwood lumber and engineered wood products heavily used in new construction. Each new home requires roughly 15,000 board feet of lumber plus extensive engineered wood products, keeping baseline consumption elevated even in a softer housing cycle. [END]
Lumber climbed to $617 per thousand board feet, the highest level since October, as constrained supply outweighed subdued conditions in the housing market. The US lumber market remains tight, with domestic production failing to fully offset reduced imports from Canada following tariffs. Canada still supplies roughly 30% of US consumption, underscoring its continued importance despite trade barriers. The US Commerce Department has proposed lowering combined duties on Canadian lumber to 24.8% from 35.2%, but an additional 10% Section 232 tariff keeps the effective rate close to 35%. Supply pressures have been further intensified by wildfire damage and other production disruptions in Canada, prompting British Columbia to introduce emergency measures aimed at boosting timber availability after storms and fires threatened output. [END]
The Bank of Canada is leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged as it tries to chart a course through global uncertainty. The central bank’s policy rate remains at 2.25 per cent today after its fifth consecutive hold. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says in prepared remarks that the economy was softer than expected in the first quarter of the year but global oil prices are also staying higher than first thought, which could keep the annual rate of inflation near three per cent for the next few months. The Bank of Canada can’t effectively respond to rising inflation and a weaker economy at the same time, so Macklem says leaving the policy rate unchanged balances those risks. The central bank sees a rebound in economic growth on the horizon but Macklem warns uncertainty is high around the war in Iran and US trade policy.
There have been consistent signs that the housing market is poised for a rebound. Russ Taylor has been tracking North American lumber markets for decades. The data, he said, keeps telling a different story. …”If things are unaffordable and there’s uncertainty and consumer confidence is weak, then nothing happens. People might be saving more money if they’re not spending it, but everyone’s worried about jobs and everything else, so they’re not spending.” The number Taylor keeps coming back to is lumber consumption. In 2016, the country consumed roughly 50 billion board feet. In 2025, the number was almost exactly the same. Ten years of demographic tailwinds, rising equity, and persistent housing shortage arguments, and consumption has not budged. …Housing starts have been declining every year since their 2021 peak, and Taylor expects 2026 to continue that trend. Repair and remodeling, which accounts for roughly 40% of US lumber consumption, has been similarly stagnant since the COVID period.
North American lumber futures climbed to approximately USD 597.50 per thousand board feet on June 3, their highest level since April, as persistent supply constraints continued to offset subdued housing demand. North American lumber futures rose to around USD 597.50 per thousand board feet on June 3, reaching their highest level in eight weeks. The move represents a 4.1% increase from a month earlier and reflects a market still dealing with the impact of Canadian import disruption. The price rise comes despite historically soft housing starts, showing that supply concerns remain an important driver for the market. Mills and distributors are holding limited inventories, while seasonal restocking ahead of the summer building season has added support to prices. …The net result is a structurally tight supply position. Mills and distributors are holding limited inventories, while buyers are entering the summer building season with restocking needs.
Lumber increased to 598.00 USD/1000 board feet, the highest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber gained 3.57%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.5%.
Framing lumber sales were slow to get started after the long holiday weekend in the US in most markets. Many buyers paused early to assess market conditions – especially prospects for shipping any new orders – before resuming moderate replenishment as the week progressed. Prices shifted modestly. Recent trends in sales of western S-P-F were little changed. Discounts grew increasingly tougher for buyers to procure as order files lengthened and mills cleared existing accumulations. …Lumber futures were little changed week to date, with the front month trading near par with the cash market in most deliverable species. …Southern pine mill sales outpaced producers’ ability to ship the loads, and backlogs of sold lumber continued to accumulate throughout the distribution pipeline. Prices shifted mildly with sales frequently reported on both sides of last week’s reported levels. …In the Inland market, prices were predominantly flat, or mildly higher in a few cases.
Rising mortgage rates aren’t the only thing freezing the housing market. Builders are contending with a fresh wave of sticker shock on the job site, as soaring prices for copper, lumber, diesel and aluminum drive up the cost of putting homes in the ground. A mix of geopolitical turmoil, tariffs and supply-chain disruptions is rippling through construction materials markets at a moment when affordability is already stretched thin, the Wall Street Journal reported. The result is higher costs for developers, more uncertainty for homebuilders and even fewer paths to affordable homeownership. Copper has become one of the industry’s biggest headaches. …Lumber prices are climbing again, too. Canadian sawmill closures and tariffs tied to the long-running U.S.-Canada softwood dispute have tightened supply heading into peak building season. …The broader concern for developers is that construction inflation could become self-reinforcing. Higher material costs feed broader inflation fears, which in turn keep borrowing costs elevated. 
B.C.’s housing market remained tepid into April as sales pointing to another disappointing spring market. Seasonally adjusted home sales decreased by 1.1 per cent in April to 5,227 units after a 0.5 per cent drop in March. This was also the lowest monthly figure since November 2023. …Weak housing market conditions are likely to progress in the near term given the shaky geopolitical climate, sluggish economic growth and weak labour market conditions. …On the manufacturing front, sales in B.C. rose marginally in March. …Wood product manufacturing also declined for the third consecutive month, falling 2.4 per cent to $728 million. This represents the lowest level since May 2020, when sales were $623 million. Year to date, durable goods sales are up 2.6 per cent.
While supply concerns are still weighing on housing affordability, a combination of soaring prices and economic uncertainty is dragging on housing demand, according to the annual 
A top US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) official told Court of International Trade (CIT) Judge Richard Eaton on 9 June that the agency is still creating a process for refunding tariffs that involve more complex entry types and that have been finally liquidated (i.e., are more than 90 days post-liquidation) in the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries portal. “We can’t do it all at once,” CBP Executive Assistant Commissioner Susan Thomas testified. ….The US Trade Representative (USTR) is 
Global oil prices fell on Monday following news of a tentative deal between Iran and the U.S. to extend their ceasefire agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but a veteran oil watcher doesn’t see crude prices returning to pre-war levels anytime soon. Eric Nuttall, partner at Ninepoint Partners, said that traders are trying to determine where the price of oil will settle out in the coming days and weeks, as many key details about the deal still need to be ironed out. …Nuttall noted that even if the strategically important Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened as a result of the Iran-U.S. deal, it will take time for oil markets to recover from the volatility of the last three and a half months. …In addition to the logistical backlog and supply chain disruption, the war in Iran has caused extensive damage to petroleum facilities across the Middle East, Nuttall explained.
This month, consumer sentiment ticked up about four index points, or 9%, with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices. This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party. Lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets. Overall, assessments and expectations of personal finances and business conditions all rose this month. Even with June’s early gains, however, views of the economy are still relatively dour. Sentiment is currently 13% below January 2026 and 19% below a year ago, as consumers remain focused on kitchen table issues. They feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in the short run. Interviews for this release were completed between May 19 and June 8.
Annual inflation rose to a three-year-high of 4.2% in May, underscoring how elevated energy prices are rippling through the US economy, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices rose 0.5% on a monthly basis, driven higher by the US-Israeli war with Iran, the latest Consumer Price Index shows. The higher cost of energy accounted for 60% of the monthly increase. …“[4.2%] is still too hot for comfort, but the more important news was that the increase was concentrated mainly in energy, especially gasoline, rather than spreading widely across the economy,” economist Sung Won Sohn, at Loyola Marymount University. …May’s release is the first inflation report since Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell. With inflation moving in the wrong direction and the labor market showing signs of resilience, economists expect the US central bank to keep rates unchanged — or even consider raising them.
Mortgage rates continued to increase in May as inflation accelerated. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May, up 7 basis points over April. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, the 30-year mortgage rate has increased by 36 basis points. The average 15-year rate averaged 5.76% in May, up 7 bps from April, and up 33 basis points since the end of February. Even so, both rates remain lower than a year ago by 41 bps and 19 bps, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.47% in May, 16 bps higher than the previous month. …Persistently high inflation has also strained household budgets. As people used more of their disposable income or drew down on savings to cover everyday expenses, the personal saving rate fell to 2.6% in April. The rate was the lowest since June 2022 when CPI was at its peak.
The US commercial construction and wood products landscape has been undergoing a noticeable geographic realignment. …At the center of this transition are two powerhouse species that help define the market: Douglas Fir and Southern Yellow Pine. Understanding how manufacturers are positioning themselves around these distinct timber baskets might offer valuable insight into where resources are building the critical infrastructure for the next decades of commercial, agricultural, and residential construction in the United States. …While the West Coast navigates these supply bottlenecks, the American South seems to be experiencing a sustained wave of modernization and investment, capitalizing on robust regional resources. …Take for example the recent investments made by companies like Canfor. …The company opened a cutting-edge sawmill complex in Axis, Alabama, an endeavor that highlights the industry’s shift toward high-tech manufacturing.
Russian lumber production is rising despite deteriorating sales and falling exports, driving inventories higher as weak household purchasing power limits the domestic market’s ability to absorb excess supply, according to the monthly Russian Lumber Industry Insights report. Companies are trying to maintain production volumes, the report said, but warehouse stocks are rising because domestic demand is weakening. The ministry in May sharply reduced its growth outlook, revising GDP growth for the current year to 0.4% and to 1.4% in 2027, and reported that the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter. …At the same time, the crisis in China’s construction sector has reduced import demand and intensified price competition. …Logistics costs for Russian suppliers continue to rise, the report said, further reducing the profitability of shipments. Taken together, weakening domestic demand, lost market share in China and higher transport costs are creating pressure on exporters and contributing to a buildup of stocks.