Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Following the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve opted to maintain its current stance, leaving interest rates unchanged. The target for the federal funds rate remains at a top level of 3.75%, where it has stood since December. This meeting may represent the final policy decision led by Jerome Powell in his role as Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, bringing his eight-year tenure in that position to a close. President Trump’s nominee, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is widely expected to secure Senate confirmation and take over in time for the next FOMC gathering. However, Powell plans to continue serving as a member of the Board of Governors after relinquishing the Chair position. …Powell has said he will remain as a Governor as long as the Justice Department’s probe into the cost of the renovations to the Fed’s headquarters remains active.

The April meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy committee featured a lot of institutional news for a month in which the Fed kept monetary policy unchanged. The outlook for the economy and monetary policy remains unclear due to geopolitical turbulence and domestic policy uncertainty. This headline risk is delaying additional Fed monetary policy easing, likely until the end of 2026 or possibly into 2027. The Fed continued its current pause for rate reductions at the conclusion of the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank’s monetary policy decision making body. The FOMC held the short-term federal funds rate at a top rate of 3.75%, the level set in December of last year. This marked the third policy pause since the Fed resumed easing in September of 2025. The Fed’s statement of current economic conditions and policy stance was relatively unchanged from March to April.

WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly edged higher in April amid a rally in share prices following a ceasefire in the war with Iran and improved perceptions of the labor market, helping ​to ease households’ financial worries for now. Despite the rise in confidence to a four-month high, the survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed higher gasoline prices ‌stemming from the conflict with Iran remained a source of concern for consumers. Fewer planned vacations over the next six months and the share of those intending to drive to their holiday destinations was the lowest since April 2020. …The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index climbed 0.6 point to 92.8 this month. Economists had forecast the index easing to ​89.0. It was in stark contrast with the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, which last week showed its Consumer Sentiment Index slumping to a record low in April.

WASHINGTON — US single-family homebuilding increased to a 13-month high in March, but the improvement was likely a blip as permits for future construction fell sharply and confidence among builders remained subdued. Single-family housing starts, ​which account for the bulk of homebuilding, surged 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate ‌of 1.032 million units, the highest level since February 2025, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Single-family housing starts increased to a pace of 941,000 units in February from 898,000 units in January. They rose 8.9% year-on-year in March. Permits ​for future construction of single-family homes decreased 3.8% last month to a rate of 895,000 units. ​They had increased to a pace of 930,000 units in February from 876,000 units ⁠in January. Single-family building permits dropped 7.9% year-on-year in March. …Overall housing ​starts vaulted 10.8% to ⁠a pace of 1.502 million units. They increased 10.8% year-on-year in March.

DALLAS — Kimberly-Clark reported first quarter 2026 results. Highlights include: Net sales of $4.2 billion increased 2.7 percent, as organic sales growth of 2.5 percent and favorable currency impacts of 2.0 percent were partially offset by a 1.8 percent decline from the exit of the company’s private label diaper business in the US. …First quarter operating profit was $753 million compared to $631 million in the prior year. Current quarter results included a $120 million benefit related to the settlement of insurance claims from a previous acquisition, and $99 million of charges related to the 2024 Transformation Initiative and Kenvue acquisition. 

In a letter signed by 76 representatives, the Real Estate Caucus and the Build America Caucus called on House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to remove harmful provisions in the Senate-passed 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that mandate the forced sale of single-family build-to-rent (BTR) housing.  The letter stated that Section 901 of the Senate bill, as drafted, “would have far reaching and unintended consequences that run counter to the bill’s stated goal of expanding housing opportunity.” The 76 lawmakers further warned that the Section 901 language would exacerbate the housing affordability crisis by severely curtailing the production of BTR housing nationwide. …NAHB estimates that single-family housing starts may drop by 40,000 units per year as a result of this mandate. Moreover, the Urban Institute says this provision targeting BTR owners could  “decrease the number of rental units built each year by at least 72,000.”

US population growth slowed notably in the latest Vintage 2025 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, with the nation expanding by just 0.5% in 20251, roughly half the pace of the prior year. The deceleration was primarily driven by a sharp decline in net international migration (NIM), which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, while natural change remained relatively stable. Population gains remain concentrated in the South and parts of the West, while many areas in the Midwest and Northeast experienced slower growth or population declines. …At the county level, population growth slowed across much of the country. Among the nation’s 3,143 counties and the District of Columbia, the majority experienced decelerating population gains in 2025. …Population flows continue to shift away from the largest and most expensive counties toward smaller and less densely populated areas.

US softwood lumber demand moves more with residential construction than with GDP per capita or lumber prices when housing starts are included directly in the demand equation, a new USDA study finds. Using quarterly US data from 2000 to 2024, the study estimates a housing-starts elasticity of 0.593 for apparent softwood lumber consumption, compared with an income elasticity of 0.138 and a price elasticity of -0.212, then applies those elasticities in a forest-sector model to project outcomes through 2070 under five scenarios. …The authors incorporate housing starts into the Forest Resource Outlook Model by adding housing activity alongside GDP per capita growth and price changes in the model’s demand updating equation. …In the five scenarios, the model projects U.S. softwood lumber consumption declines by 2070, with the scenario 5 outcome the highest, the scenario 3 outcome the lowest, and scenarios 1, 2, and 4 in between. The study says the lowest case takes consumption to around 60 million m3 by 2070.

Economic uncertainty coupled with rising building material costs and interest rates resulted in a sharp decline in builder sentiment in April as the housing market enters into the heart of the spring buying season. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 34 in April. This is the lowest level since September 2025. Builder sentiment fell back in spring as buyers face ongoing elevated interest rates and growing economic uncertainty. The year started with hopes for housing momentum growth, but risks with respect to the Iran war, energy costs, and declines for consumer confidence have slowed the market. …All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in April. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell four points to 37 from March to April, the index measuring future sales dropped seven points to 42 and the index charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point decline to 22.

Energy input prices increased in March at their fastest pace since June of 2020 as the conflict in Iran shocked critical global supply chains. Building material prices, excluding energy, rose for the eleventh straight month. Price growth for trade services slowed while transportation and warehousing price growth accelerated. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% in March, after rising 0.5% in February. The index for final demand goods rose 1.6% over the month. The price index for inputs to new residential construction rose 1.2% in March and was up 3.8% from last year. The price of goods used in new residential construction was up 1.8% over the month and up 4.3% from last year, while the price of services was up 0.3% over the month and up 3.1% from last year. …Among input goods… the largest yearly declines in prices were for particleboard and fiberboard with prices down 15.7%… while softwood lumber prices were 7.8% lower.

Residential construction activity began 2026 on a mixed note, with single-family permitting weakening significantly while multifamily activity remained relatively stable. Higher borrowing costs and affordability constraints continue to weigh on single-family construction, while multifamily permitting shows signs of resilience despite regional variation. Over the first month of the year, the number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 62,034. On a year-over-year basis, this represents a 15.2% decline compared with the January 2025 total of 73,115. Multifamily permitting activity was essentially flat, with 38,215 permits issued nationwide, marking a 0.5% decline from the same period last year. …The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits accounted for 63.8% of all single-family permits issued nationwide. Texas led the country, with 9,580 permits issued at the start of 2026, although this represented a 21.3% decline compared with January 2025. Florida, the second-highest state, saw permits fall by 14.9%, while North Carolina, ranked third, experienced a decline of 9.8%.

US Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. …Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy. …Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.4% this month.

US real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 4.4%. The third report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for March 27, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown. Real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to investment. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

In the first quarter of 2026, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 62, down two points compared to the previous quarter. Despite this decline, the overall reading has been solidly in positive territory since Q1 2020. Remodeler sentiment remained generally positive in the first quarter, even as many remodelers are still working to manage their customers’ cost expectations. Only a relatively small share report homeowners putting projects on hold due to economic and political uncertainty. Ongoing positive remodeler sentiment is consistent with NAHB’s outlook, given an aging housing stock and the lock-in effect of elevated mortgage rates keeping owners in the homes longer. In the first quarter, remodelers reported 21% of their projects were associated with home improvements made shortly after a purchase, while only 4% were for homeowners’ projected to ready a home for sale. 

WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in ​March as the war with Iran boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted, further diminishing chances for an ‌interest rate cut this year. The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, the largest increase since June 2022, when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI advanced 3.3% after rising 2.4% in February. …The jump in consumer inflation followed in the ​wake of a sharp rebound in job growth last month, which suggested the labor market remained stable. There are, however, ⁠concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could undercut the labor market, especially if households respond to high prices by pulling ​back spending.

President Trump has proposed a budget that would cut non-defense discretionary spending by $73 billion for fiscal year 2027, which runs from Oct. 1, 2026, through Sept. 30, 2027. The spending reductions include a $10.7 billion cut — about 13% — for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). …The president’s proposed budget changes include:

• Eliminating funding for the Community Development Block Grant program.
• Eliminating the Home Investments Partnerships Program.
• Eliminating the Fair Housing Initiatives Program under the Fair Housing Act.
• Eliminating programs deemed to fall under the executive orders “Ending Radical and Wasteful Government Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) Programs and Preferencing” and “Ending Crime and Disorder on America’s Streets,” including homeless assistance programs, housing counseling, Pathways to Removing Obstacles (PRO) Housing, and Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS.

Although the cuts are unlikely to be enacted, NAHB will continue to monitor the appropriations process as funding decisions are made on key housing, tax, labor and environmental programs.

The U.S. labor market showed signs of a modest rebound in March following a weak February, as payroll employment increased and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Job growth was led by healthcare, construction, and transportation and warehousing. However, signs of cooling are emerging. Job openings posted their largest decline in nearly a year and a half in February, pointing to a potential easing in labor demand. Meanwhile, growing geopolitical uncertainty adds further downside risk to the labor market outlook. Wage growth slowed in March, with average hourly earnings rising 3.5% year-over-year. This pace is 0.7 percentage points lower than a year ago. Importantly, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases. …Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job—declined 0.2 percentage points to 61.9%.