Canada’s housing market took a “small step” toward recovery last month, according to a RBC report, but a sustained rebound is yet to be seen. July’s Monthly Housing Market Update, published by RBC Economics, suggested that the Canadian real estate market remains in the midst of a modest recovery that “appears to be holding — albeit just barely.” “A 0.5% rise in home resales in June from May extended the winning streak to three months, but marks a sharp deceleration from the robust 5.5% advance the previous month,” RBC’s Robert Hogue wrote in the report. When seasonally adjusted and annualized, total transactions across Canada last month were 12 per cent below the 10-year average. …Regardless of regional trends, many prospective homebuyers across the country remain “hesitant” to enter the market, the report noted, with challenges such as weakened economic confidence, uncertain job prospects and affordability concerns top of mind.
The US has formally declined to renew the USMCA trade agreement for a further 16 years. While existing tariff-free trade terms will continue, the decision triggers annual reviews until the agreement expires in 10 years. President Trump openly views the agreement as detrimental to US manufacturing, placing the burden of concessions firmly on Mexico and Canada. But as today’s chart shows, Canada has a much lower reliance on the US than Mexico, and the Carney administration is taking active steps to diversify its export base further. Exports from industrial sectors subject to tariffs – metals and auto – have fallen sharply, but the hit to activity is limited, as these account for just 2.5% of GDP. …Adjusted for a shrinking working-age population, production in these sectors has picked up. …Goods exports to the US make up close to one-third of Mexico’s GDP. Canada’s share is also high at 15%, but has fallen over time.
OTTAWA — Canada’s annual inflation rate in May accelerated more than expected to 3.2%, a 29-month high, data showed on Monday, as the impact of higher crude oil prices due to the Iran conflict continued to filter through gasoline costs. Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated the annual inflation rate to touch 3% in May, up from 2.8% in April. The prices, however, are already showing a major reversal in June after an interim peace deal was signed between the United States and Iran last week, which, analysts have said, could help ease the headline number in June. Statistics Canada said excluding the impact of gasoline prices, the consumer price index still posted a higher increase of 2.2% in May from 2% in April. The monthly inflation rate rose to 1% in May, exceeding expectations of 0.8% rise. This is the highest monthly rise in 15 months.
The Canadian lumber industry saw enormous price spikes during the pandemic years of 2020-2022, with costs close to triple what they are today for some products. … “We saw prices skyrocket during COVID, but so too did the cost to operate,” said Aspen Dudzic, the Alberta Forest Products Assocation’s communications director. “And interestingly, post-COVID, we saw the market prices for lumber go down, but the costs to operate have not come down in the same way.” Even though lumber costs have seen a huge drop in prices in a vacuum, why haven’t these cost savings been passed on to the consumer? …“The supply chain is really complex,” Dudzic said. “Nothing we do operates in a vacuum, so there’s a lot of other compounding costs that we have to look at, like inflationary pressures, upticks in fuel and energy prices. …Top of mind is the ongoing trade war with the US.
BC has seen lower timber harvests and lumber and lumber exports. …BC exported 2.5 million m3 of softwood logs in 2025, a trend that has been in place since 2022. …BC lumber exports have always focused on the US market, with 64% of production and 76% of total exports directed at the US in 2025. But with US duties and tariffs totalling over 45%. the volumes started to drop in 2025 Q4. Total BC lumber exports in 2025 were 5.1 billion bf, a drop of 12% from 2024. Lumber exports to the US were 3.83 billion bf in 2025, a drop of 14.3% from 2024. …In the first quarter of 2026, total BC lumber exports were lower by 20.1% compared to 2025 Q1, with exports to the US down by a whopping 24.7% (the bite of US duties and tariffs is evident), lower to Japan by 17.7% but higher to China by 10%. It will be challenging for BC mills in export markets for much of 2026 unless demand improves or prices move higher—both unlikely until 2027.
US single-family homebuilding and permits for future construction fell in June, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and inventory of unsold new homes on the market. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, slipped 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 895,000 units. Single-family homebuilding dropped 3.2% year-on-year in June. Permits for future construction of single-family homes dropped 2.4% last month to a rate of 871,000 units. They fell 0.2% year-on-year in June. The rate on the popular 30-year fixed-mortgage has increased by nearly 60 basis points since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. …Building permits for multi-family housing projects dropped 4.9% to a rate of 445,000 units last month. Overall building permits fell 3.0% to a rate of 1.367 million units. They declined 2.3% year-on-year in June.
State-level permitting activity continued to reflect a divided housing market through the first five months of 2026. Elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continued to weigh on single-family construction across much of the country, while multifamily permitting remained comparatively stronger, supported by gains in several regions despite continued weakness in parts of the South. Over the first five months of the year, the number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 380,130. Compared with the same period in 2025, this represents a 6.1 percent decline compared with the May 2025 total of 404,977. In contrast, multifamily permitting activity remained stronger, with 208,192 permits issued nationwide, marking a 6.5 percent increase from the same period last year.
On July 9, 2026, Mercer International received a notice from Nasdaq staff that the company’s common stock had failed to meet the exchange’s minimum bid price requirement of $1.00 per share for 30 consecutive business days, triggering a formal non-compliance status under Nasdaq rules. The notification does not immediately affect the listing or trading of Mercer’s securities, but it places the company under an initial 180-day compliance period in which it must restore its share price to at least $1.00 for ten consecutive business days to avoid potential future delisting pressure. Mercer is working to regain compliance, though it acknowledges there is no assurance it can meet the requirement within the timeframe. The development… could influence investor sentiment and the company’s capital markets flexibility depending on its ability to achieve and sustain the mandated bid price threshold. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
In the second quarter of 2026, the NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 61, down one point compared to the previous quarter. The RMI has remained in the low 60s consistently over the past year. Even with this slight decline from the previous quarter, remodeler sentiment remains the standout sector within the housing industry, outperforming both its single-family and multifamily counterparts. …However, ongoing economic uncertainty and current cost pressures due to inflation are causing project delays, especially for larger ones. In the latest RMI survey, 74% of remodelers reported that their suppliers have increased prices of materials since March due to higher fuel costs, with the average increase in materials prices over that span being 6.7%.
The U.S. goods trade deficit is widening, the Commerce Department said Friday, suggesting stockpiling ahead of higher tariffs and a continued reliance on imports for the domestic data center rollout, analysts say. The goods trade deficit for May jumped more than $20 billion to $105.8 billion, up from $83 billion in April, according to 
A closely watched inflation report is set to reveal how much price growth picked up in May — and whether many American consumers remain mired in an affordability crunch. Wall Street forecasters expected the pace of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to have quickened compared with April data amid higher oil prices and stronger consumer spending. The monthly PCE report is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the central bank is committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target — a level it has failed to reach for the past five years. Wall Street now anticipates the Fed will raise its key interest rate at least once by year’s end in a bid to counteract the stronger price growth.
China remains one of the world’s major importers of softwood logs and lumber, but its 
While supply concerns are still weighing on housing affordability, a combination of soaring prices and economic uncertainty is dragging on housing demand, according to the annual 
Softwood markets across Latin America and the Asia-Pacific are approaching a turning point, according to the latest market report from Global Wood Trends and O’Kelly Acumen. The report says some of the world’s lowest-cost plantation producers are increasingly linked to major importing markets where domestic supply growth is limited. “With harvests expected to decline in key exporting regions, China remaining structurally dependent on imports, and Japan nearing peak production, the regional supply balance is likely to tighten through 2035 – creating new risks and opportunities for producers, investors, traders, and wood consumers,” it says. The ‘Global Softwood Roundwood Supply – Latin America & Asia-Pacific’ report… says Latin America, Asia, and Oceania. Latin America remain a highly competitive source of softwood roundwood. Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay account for nearly all regional softwood supply, supported by large-scale plantation forestry and investment by integrated forest-product companies and institutional owners. 
Japan’s housing starts surged 33.9% yoy in May 2026, sharply accelerating from a 11.4% increase in the previous month and marking the second straight month of expansion. It was also the fastest growth since March 2025, topping market expectations of 31.8%. Growth was broad-based across most segments, including owner-occupied homes (31.8% vs 19.5% in April), rental housing (33.3% vs 17.3%), built-for-sale housing (39.2% vs 3.4%), and two-by-four homes (24.8% vs 64.8%). In contrast, prefabricated housing fell 3.4%, swinging from a 11.1% increase in April.
Russia’s timber exports to China, its largest overseas market, fell sharply in the first four months of 2026 as Beijing’s prolonged property downturn weighed on demand, adding to mounting pressure on an industry already struggling with sanctions, high borrowing costs and weak profitability. Exports of Russian sawn timber to China dropped 30% year on year to 2.6 million cubic meters in January-April, while export revenue declined 26% to $603.7 million, the Vedomosti business daily reported. …China accounted for roughly half of Russia’s sawn timber exports in 2025 after Europe closed its market following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But weakening Chinese construction activity, rising logistics costs and a stronger ruble have eroded demand, leaving Russian producers with fewer alternative markets. Russia’s total sawn timber exports fell 32% year-on-year to around 4 million cubic meters in the January-April period. China imported 11.2 million cubic meters of Russian sawn timber in 2025.