Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Canada’s annual inflation rate in June slightly up to 1.9%

By Promit Mukherjee
Reuters in Yahoo! Finance
July 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

OTTAWA — Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% in June, meeting analysts’ expectations, as increases in the price of automobiles and clothing and footwear pushed the index higher, data showed on Tuesday. The consumer price index was at 1.7% in the prior month. Statistics Canada said on a monthly basis the CPI increased 0.1%, matching analysts’ forecasts. It is for the third month in a row that the CPI has been under 2%, or the mid-point of Bank of Canada’s inflation target range. This is the last major economic indicator to be released before the Bank of Canada’s rates decision later this month. The slight rise in prices across many segments, along with a strong jobs number last week, is likely to take away any incentive to cut interest rates, economists had earlier predicted. …Shelter prices rose by 2.9%, its first drop below 3% in more than four years.

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Canada’s economy added 83K jobs in June, muting chance of a BoC rate cut

By John MacFarlane
Yahoo! Finance
July 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s labour market defied expectations in June, adding a net 83,100 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9%, according to Statistics Canada data released on Friday. The figures make a Bank of Canada interest rate cut less likely, economists say, and will likely move the focus to upcoming inflation data. Financial industry experts had expected the job market to stay essentially flat last month, forecasting a net loss of 3,000 jobs, according to consensus estimates published by the Bank of Montreal. Expectations were for the unemployment rate to increase 0.1 percentage point to 7.1%. The results show the “resilience” of Canada’s labour market, which will be noted by the Bank of Canada, CIBC economist Katherine Judge writes following the release. “While the unemployment rate is still elevated, the strength in other measures in this report clearly diminishes the odds of a BoC cut” at the July 30 interest rate announcement, she says.

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BC/Canada’s dilemma in the US and export markets

By Russ Taylor, Russ Taylor Global
Truck LoggerBC Magazine
July 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

Russ Taylor

Today’s lower prices put BC Interior SPF mills back near break-even levels at current lumber prices and with 14.4% duties, with other Canadian regions looking to be marginally profitable. …In August, Canadian lumber will be subject to elevated US import duties (~34.5%). This factor alone will require Canadian lumber prices in the US market to rise by another 10% – 20%. Any tariffs imposed on Canada and/or other countries will only increase lumber prices further to attract enough imports into the US market. If prices do not rise enough, then expect mill curtailments in BC. …No one knows if or when tariffs could be applied to timber and wood products as well as derivative products from the US Section 232 investigation and what the tariff levels might be by country. If tariffs are applied, that will cause some major dislocations to the BC and Canadian lumber industry, as higher costs for imported lumber will ultimately cause US lumber prices to rise. 

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Estimates of gross domestic product in wildfire-affected areas during the 2023 and 2024 wildfire seasons

By Matthew Brown
Statistics Canada
June 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Preliminary estimates suggest that the 2023 wildfire season caused approximately 232,000 people to evacuate their communities over 282 events, consequently causing disruption to economic activity for many businesses. This article discusses the amount of economic activity that was at risk of being affected, but not necessarily disrupted, by wildfires across Canada during the 2023 wildfire season. …The 2023 season was the largest ever recorded by land area affected, and the 2024 season was the second largest in the past two decades. The value of production in areas that were directly affected by wildfires in 2023 was assessed across Canada, and in the Jasper area in 2024. Although the wildfires affected large areas of land, their potential effects on overall GDP are relatively limited at a national scale (except for the Northwest Territories). However, for smaller places that were affected, these impacts are potentially quite large at the local scale, particularly for those that experienced longer evacuation periods.

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Deloitte Canada expects NAFTA 2.0 ‘carve-out’ in new US trade deal

By Jeff Lagerquist
Yahoo Finance
June 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

A new Canada-US trade deal will likely carry forward the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement tariff exemptions shielding most Canadian exports from American tariffs, says Deloitte Canada chief economist Dawn Desjardins. …US President Donald Trump has set July 9 as the deadline for countries to ink a trade deal in order to avoid his “Liberation Day” tariffs. For Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed on the sidelines of the recent G7 meeting in Alberta to strike a deal by July 21. “Our baseline view assumes that at a minimum, we continue to operate with our CUSMA carve-outs. “The sounds we’re hearing seem to be moving in the right direction. Obviously, I have no inside information. It’s just an assumption that we will not be severely hit by 25 per cent tariffs across the board.” …Deloitte Canada’s latest economic forecast, published on Wednesday, calls for a “modest recession” in the second and third quarters of the year. 

Related coverage in Bloomberg Economics: Trade clarity to help Canada’s economy rebound after modest recession: Deloitte

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Is US Lumber Self-Reliance Possible?

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber cost uncertainty has risen from the start of the year, driven in part by potential higher tariffs, particularly on Canadian softwood lumber. Despite the continued use and threat of tariffs, US sawmill and wood preservation firms have not increased production to a level that replaces imports. In fact, utilization rates continue to fall, meaning they have the capacity to produce more lumber but are simply not operating at that level. As these firms produce at lower levels, their employment has fallen over the past few quarters. At the same time, reduced foreign competition and artificially higher prices have lessened the incentive for firms to expand output, even as demand remains high. As a result, US mills remain unable to meet the nation’s full lumber consumption needs. …There is ample room to increase production, but… producers may see no benefit of increasing output, as it would push prices lower since demand has fallen from the start of the year. 

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Inflation holds steady at 1.7% in May as rent hikes cool

The Canadian Press in CP24 News
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The annual pace of inflation held steady at 1.7% in May as cooling shelter costs helped tame price pressures, Statistics Canada said. Shelter costs rose three per cent in May, StatCan said, marking a slowdown from 3.4% in April. The agency singled out Ontario as the major source of rent relief in the country. …Mortgage interest costs meanwhile decelerated for the 21st consecutive month amid lower interest rates from the Bank of Canada. Economists had broadly expected inflation would remain unchanged heading into Tuesday. The removal of the consumer carbon price continues to drive down gasoline costs annually, StatCan said. …Inflation excluding tax changes – stripping out influences from the carbon price removal – was also steady at 2.3 per cent last month. …The central bank’s closely watched core inflation metrics meanwhile ticked down a tenth of a percentage point to three per cent in May.

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Lumber Futures Eases Past $610

Trading Economics
June 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures traded below $610 per thousand board feet, easing from two-month highs of $626 seen June 13th, driven by improving supply while demand slowed. This pullback reflects a temporary surge in supply as sawmills and wholesalers restocked early-season safety stocks, while builders delayed purchases after earlier buying . The decline also stems from softer demand: high mortgage rates continue to suppress new house builds and remodeling activity, with treaters and end-users scaling back orders. Although longer-term forecasts expect a pickup in Q3, driven by renewed tariff pressure and projected housing recovery, the current correction is supply-led, driven by modest restocking, seasonal slowdown, and rate-constrained construction spending. [END]›

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Manufacturing is crucial to BC economy but policy is falling short

By Jock Finlayson and Ken Peacock
Business in Vancouver
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

As Ottawa bets big on EVs and batteries, core manufacturers in sectors like lumber, metal and machinery are left fighting uphill battles at home. Among his various and sometimes conflicting economic objectives, Donald Trump has identified revitalizing manufacturing as a priority. He has railed against the decline in factory jobs — a complaint that overlooks the jump in U.S. manufacturing employment since 2015 but does reflect the fact that manufacturing today accounts for a significantly smaller share of U.S. jobs than it did 30 years ago. Canadian policymakers have also been paying more attention to manufacturing, particularly since the 2020-21 COVID shock highlighted the country’s vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. Unfortunately, Ottawa’s preferred game-plan has been to dole out vast taxpayer-funded subsidies to politically favoured segments: Electric vehicles, batteries and clean-tech products.

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Urgency and Caution: Charting a Careful Path to the CUSMA Review

By Meredith Lilly
The CD Howe Institute
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

It is essential that the prime minister build on areas of common interest while limiting additional exposure to the US through diversification efforts. Meanwhile, there are signs that the trade chaos which characterized the initial months of Trump’s presidency may be easing. Despite the administration’s wild “Liberation Day” tariffs… most Canadian exports to the US remain eligible for tariff-free treatment. …Given the ease with which the president has ignored the agreement in recent months by imposing tariffs under a national emergency rationale that has been rejected by the courts and trade experts alike, many are rightly asking whether Canada should expose itself to further US aggression via a potential renegotiation of CUSMA. The existence of CUSMA and associated compliance with the agreement that now protects Canadian exports from the harsher treatment being imposed on other countries. …Canada will have its own list of grievances, including softwood lumber duties.

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Goodfellow Reports Its Results for the Second Quarter Ended May 31, 2025

By Goodfellow Inc.
Globe Newswire
July 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

DELSON, Quebec — Goodfellow Inc. announced today its financial results for the second quarter ended May 31, 2025. For the three months ended May 31, 2025, the Company reported net earnings of $2.5 million or $0.29 per share compared to net earnings of $5.3 million or $0.62 per share a year ago. Consolidated sales were $152.9 million compared to $140.3 million last year. For the six months ended May 31, 2025, the Company reported net earnings of $0.2 million or $0.02 per share compared to net earnings of $5.2 million or $0.61 per share a year ago, while consolidated sales were $264.1 million compared to $245.7 million last year. At the midpoint of fiscal 2025, Goodfellow’s performance can be characterized as evolving due to challenging market dynamics and inflationary pressures on operational costs. During the second quarter, the Company saw a notable shift in consumer preference toward Canadian-sourced wood products, driven mainly by growing concerns around evolving U.S. trade policy. This shift contributed to modest domestic demand and price stability across several product categories.

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Trump announces deal with Indonesia, EU releases list of counter-tariffs

Yahoo! Finance
July 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

President Trump announced his team struck a trade deal with Indonesia on Tuesday and said details would be forthcoming. …The announcement comes after Trump unveiled a new batch of letters to over 20 trade partners outlining tariffs on goods imported from their countries beginning in August. The letters set new baseline tariff levels at 20% to 40% — except for a 50% levy on goods from Brazil. …Trump has also escalated tariff tensions with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union recently. On Thursday, Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and followed that up with promises of 30% duties on Mexico and the EU. The EU has been preparing options for a trade deal, while also preparing an extensive list of counter-tariffs that would affect 72 billion euros ($84 billion USD) of American products should talks fail. “There will be a huge impact on trade,” the EU’s chief negotiator said Monday.

Related in the Associated Press: EU ministers plan countermeasures to Trump’s 30% tariffs

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US Remodeling Market Sentiment Dips in Second Quarter

By Eric Lynch
The NAHB Eye on Housing
July 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In the second quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 59, down four points compared to the previous quarter. While this reading is still in positive territory, some remodelers, especially in the West, are seeing a slowing of activity in their markets. The second-quarter reading of 59 marks only the second time the RMI has dipped below 60 since the survey was revised in the first quarter of 2020. Higher interest rates and general economic uncertainty have affected consumer confidence and are headwinds for remodeling, but not to the extent that they have been for single-family construction, as is evident in June’s negative reading from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Marketing Index (HMI). As a result, NAHB is still forecasting solid gains for remodeling spending in 2025, followed by more modest, but still positive, growth in 2026. …The Current Conditions Index averaged 66, down five points from the previous quarter.  

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Prices are now starting to rise because of tariffs. Economists say this is just the beginning

By Alicia Wallace
CNN Business
July 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Economists, researchers and analysts have warned that President Trump’s tariffs on most goods will deliver a taxing blow to consumers via higher prices. However, recent months’ economic data has shown that overall inflation has remained fairly tame. Trump touts the positive economic reports as signs that tariffs are working. However, the chorus of concern is growing: Prices are moving higher, and economists say this is just the beginning. Here’s a look at the mechanisms behind why price hikes, and hotter inflation, are a slow burn: Tariffs have been applied in a staggered manner; …Trade policy and tariffs are in flux; …Shipping takes time; …Domestic supply chains take time, too; …Inventories were loaded up before tariffs hit; …Some costs are being eaten; …Businesses are hesitant to pass on higher prices; …Awareness of goods prices is lower in summer than fall and winter; …Economic data is often lagged; …Inflation indices are comprehensive.

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Tariffs to push new home construction costs up 3% by year-end, Bank of America warns

By Candyd Mendoza
Mortgage Professional America Magazine
July 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The cost of building a new home in the US could rise by 3% by the end of 2025, driven by tariff pressures, according to a new report from Bank of America. The bank reports that despite price growth slowing since its pandemic-era peak, new home prices remain elevated relative to income. Average prices jumped from $371,100 in Q2 2020 to $525,100 in Q4 2022. …While the average size of US homes has declined by 12% over the last decade, the cost of building materials has continued to climb. “We estimate the value of content in an average US new single-family home was $102k in 2024,” the report said. “We estimate the bill of materials to build a house has increased at a 3.6% CAGR from $23K in 1982, consistently outpacing overall inflation over the last 40+ years.” …One of the key drivers of rising construction costs is tariffs.

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Confused about where things stand with Trump’s tariffs? Here’s a handy primer

By Scott Horsley
NPR – National Public Radio
July 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

This week was supposed to mark the deadline for other countries to strike trade deals with the US — or face tariffs of up to 49% on the goods they sell in the United States. President Trump is still threatening sky-high import taxes, but he has pushed back the effective date to Aug. 1, sowing even more uncertainty. Here’s an update on where Trump’s tariff policy stands, from which tariffs he has in place to which countries are currently affected. A 10% tariff applies to just about everything the US imports. …Higher tariffs on tap for other countries — maybe. …China already has a higher tariff after tit-for-tat retaliations. …The European Union could also face stiffer tariffs. …Mexico and Canada face special scrutiny. …The U.K. and Vietnam are the only two countries with deals in place. …Separate tariffs apply to steel, aluminum and autos. …But tariffs also face a legal challenge.

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Top Ten Builder Share Rises Again in 2024

By Sarah Caldwell
NAHB Eye on Housing
July 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The top ten builders captured a record 44.7% of all new US single-family home closings in 2024, up 2.4 percentage points from 2023 (42.3%). This is the highest share ever captured by the top ten builders since NAHB began tracking BUILDER magazine data on new single-family home closings in 1989. The 2024 share constitutes 306,932 closings out of 686,000 new single-family houses sold in 2024. However, closings by the top 10 builders only represent 30.1% of new single-family home completions, a wider measure of home building that covers not-for-sale home construction. Also of note, the top 15 builders accounted for more than half of all closings (51%) for the first time ever in 2024.

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Fannie Mae Publishes June 2025 National Housing Survey Results

Fannie Mae
July 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its June 2025 National Housing Survey® (NHS), which includes the Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), a measure of consumer sentiment toward housing. Month over month, the HPSI decreased 3.7 points to 69.8. Year over year, the HPSI is down 2.8 points.

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From lumber to lighting: How Trump’s tariffs drive up home construction costs

By Alex Ford and Jiachuan Wu
NBC News
July 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Lumber from Canada? That will be another $534. Major appliances from China? Add a cool $445. New homes in the United States are set to get more expensive thanks to President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which is expected to raise the costs of a wide variety of materials that go into building houses. An NBC News analysis of building materials and import data found that the total cost of building a mid-range single-family home could rise by more than $4,000 — an estimate that industry experts who reviewed the analysis called conservative. An April survey from the National Association of Home Builders estimated tariff impacts at $10,900 per home. Neither analysis included labor costs. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said the tariffs have an impact beyond their direct cost as they send uncertainty rippling through the supply chain and leave builders unsure how to plan for the future.

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2024 Multifamily Construction: Units Completed Reaches 38-year High

By Jesse Wade
The NAHB Eye on Housing
July 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Multifamily units completed in 2024 recorded their highest level since 1986 at 608,000 units, according to NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. For the eighth consecutive year, most multifamily units were in buildings with 50 or more units (these will be labeled as high-density buildings). This trend is relatively new. Dating back to the earliest estimates in the series (1972), most multifamily units were historically located in buildings with less than 50 units (low-medium density buildings). Of the total 608,000 multifamily units completed in 2024, 330,000 (54%) were in high-density buildings while the remaining 278,000 (46%) were in low-medium density buildings. …Among multifamily units completed in 2024, 95% were built-for-rent at a level of 580,000. …The number of multifamily units built-for-sale rose from 20,000 in 2023 to 29,000 in 2024. 

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Trump says US nears trade deals as tariff deadline delayed to August 1

By Andrea Shalal and Nathan Howard
Reuters
July 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The United States is close to finalizing several trade pacts in coming days and will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by July 9, President Donald Trump said on Sunday, with the higher rates set to take effect on August 1. Since taking office, Trump has set off a global trade war that has roiled financial markets and sent policymakers scrambling to protect their economies, through efforts such as deals with the United States and other countries. In April Trump unveiled a base tariff rate of 10% on most countries and additional duties ranging up to 50%, although he later delayed the effective date for all but 10% until July 9. The new date offers countries a three-week reprieve. …Bessent told CNN the Trump administration was focused on 18 important trading partners that account for 95% of the US trade deficit. 

In related News:

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Tariffing New Zealand Timber And Lumber Products To The US Would Be Troublesome

By Mark Ross, Wood Processors and Manufacturers of NZ
Scoop Independent News
July 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

New Zealand has a strong story to tell about free trade, farming and renewable forestry resources. …Given the healthy relationship between the US and New Zealand on the trade front, the temporary relief of tariffs on timber and lumber imported into the US has been welcomed. Though we realise that this tariff exemption could be short lived based on the outcome of the Section 232 investigation aimed at determining the global effects imports of timber, lumber and their derivative products have on the US supply chain. As a small niche supplier of wood products that are needed by the US domestic building market, there is a strong argument for keeping New Zealand timber and lumber imports tariff free to avoid any additional price hikes and further supply chain disruptions. …Like many, we now wait for completion of the section. 232 Investigation.

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What’s in Trump’s big bill that passed Congress and will soon become law

By Kevin Freking and Lisa Mascaro
The Associated Press
July 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON — Republicans muscled President Donald Trump’s tax and spending cut bill through the House on Thursday, the final step necessary to get the bill to his desk by the GOP’s self-imposed deadline of July 4th. At nearly 900 pages, the legislation is a sprawling collection of tax breaks, spending cuts and other Republican priorities, including new money for national defense and deportations. Democrats united against the legislation, but were powerless to stop it as long as Republicans stayed united. The Senate passed the bill, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tiebreaking vote. The House passed an earlier iteration of the bill in May with just one vote to spare. It passed the final version 218-214. Republicans say the bill is crucial because there would be a massive tax increase after December when tax breaks from Trump’s first term expire. The legislation contains about $4.5 trillion in tax cuts.

Related coverage in CNBC: What the Senate Republican tax-and-spending bill means for your money

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US Consumer Sentiment rose for the first time in 6 month, remains well below December 2024

By Joanne Hsu
The University of Michigan
June 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment surged 16% from May in its first increase in six months—confirming the mid-month reading—but remains well below the post-election bounce seen in December 2024. The improvement was broadbased across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more. Despite June’s gains, however, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024, right after the election; consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, but at this time they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle East with the economy. …Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024.

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2024 New Single-Family Starts by Census Division

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 30, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Despite persistently high mortgage rates, elevated financing costs for builders, and a shortage of buildable lots, single-family starts rebounded in 2024, following two straight years of declines. According to the NAHB analysis of the 2024 Survey of Construction (SOC), a total of 1,009,315 new single-family units started construction nationwide. This is a 7% increase compared to 2023. Among the nine Census divisions, the South Atlantic division led the nation with 344,313 starts in 2024, representing a 34% share. The second highest was the West South Central division at 187,690 starts, followed by the Mountain division with 125,911 starts. …Meanwhile, there were 99,166 new single-family units started in the Pacific division (10% of total starts) and 81,106 in the East North Central division (8%) in 2024. The other four divisions, including East South Central, West North Central, Middle Atlantic, and New England, accounted for the remaining 17% of the total new single-family housing starts.

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Western Governors Association Unveils Housing Plan That Includes NAHB Priorities

The National Association of Home Builders
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

During its June 22-24 meeting in Santa Fe, New Mexico, the Western Governors Association (WGA) unveiled a new report focused on expanding housing to western states. NAHB worked closely with the WGA in drafting the report, Building Resilient and New Affordable Developments in the West, and NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes participated in a panel that highlighted the key findings. Hughes encouraged the governors to keep the “5 Ls” in mind when working on housing issues: Labor, Land, Lumber and materials, Lending, and Laws and regulations. The lack of skilled labor, local land use policies that restrict home and apartment construction, lumber price volatility and elevated material prices, high lending costs for builders, and high regulatory burdens are the main drivers of low housing supply and high home prices, he noted. The report contains a number of policy objectives that seek to ease home building costs and increase the supply of housing.

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Harvard Report Shows US Housing Affordability Crisis Worsening

The National Association of Home Builders
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US housing market continues to face uncertainty and record-high unaffordability as home prices and interest rates push sales to their lowest level in 30 years, according to The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS). The report highlights the record-high number of cost-burdened renters, the staggering increase in cost-burdened home owners, and the pricing out of first-time home buyers. …Builders have responded to these issues with smaller homes and mortgage rate buydowns, and while the new homeownership rate continues to fall and existing home sales hit a 30-year low, new home sales increased by 3% last year. The JCHS report notes that increasing housing supply would help alleviate the crisis. Zoning reforms and revisiting land-use policies can be used at the local level. 

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Elevated Rates, Challenging Affordability Conditions Put a Damper on New Home Sales

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty sent more home buyers to the sidelines in May as housing affordability conditions remain challenging. Sales of newly built single-family homes declined 13.7% in May, falling back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 according to the US Census Bureau. This was the slowest pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged 6.83% in May. Sales were particularly slow in the South, with the pace of sales down 21% in May. …On a year-to-date basis, new home sales are 3.2% lower thus far in 2025. As a result of slowing home sales conditions, inventory continues to rise, marking an elevated 9.8 months’ supply in May. As estimated by NAHB, total months’ supply, defined as a combination of current new and resale single-family inventory, now stands at 5.2. This is the highest sales-adjusted inventory level since 2015 and will place downward pressure on housing construction starts in the months ahead.

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The US economy shrank much faster in the first quarter than previously reported

By Bryan Mena
CNN Business
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US economy contracted in the beginning of the year at a much faster pace than previously reported, after new data factored in much weaker consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. …The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years. …Economic data released Thursday provides a clearer picture how the US economy has fared in the face of Trump’s policy shifts, which includes fresh figures on new applications for unemployment benefits, and mortgage rates.

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Vietnam, US promote sustainable timber trade, legal supply chains

Vietnam+
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

HANOI, Vietnam – Speaking at a workshop on Vietnam-US timber and wooden product trade… Secretary General of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST) Ngo Sy Hoai said that in 2024, Vietnam exported wood and wood products worth 9 billion USD to the US, up 24% year-on-year. The US accounts for 55% of the country’s total wood exports. …Meanwhile, Vietnam imported 316.36 million USD worth of timber from the US in 2024, up 32.9% year-on-year, accounting for 11.2% of Vietnam’s total wood imports. …Vietnam has banned natural forest logging since 2014, focusing instead on sustainable plantation forestry… on 3 million hectares of planted forests, mainly acacia and eucalyptus and 1 million hectares of rubber plantations. 700,000 ha of commercial forests in Vietnam have been certified under the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) or the Programme for the Endorsement ofForest Certification (PEFC) standards. Vietnam aims to reach 70% certified plantation coverage by 2030. Vietnam is also preparing to comply with the EU’s Deforestation Regulation.

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US Consumer Confidence Retreats in June

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

After a strong rebound in May, consumer confidence resumed its downward trend in June. Consumers remain concerned about the economy and labor market amid ongoing uncertainty, especially around tariffs. This month’s decline erased almost half of last month’s sharp gain, suggesting continued volatility in consumer sentiment. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board… fell from 98.4 to 93.0 in June, the second lowest level since February of 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. The Present Situation Index decreased 6.4 points from 135.5 to 129.1, the lowest since October 2024; and the Expectation Situation Index dropped 4.6 points from 73.6 to 69.0. This is the fifth consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

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The US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Pause Continues

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
June 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Reflecting most forecasters’ expectations for the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve continued its post-2024 pause for federal funds rate cuts, retaining a target rate of 4.5% to 4.25%. The pause comes after a 100 basis point series of reductions in late 2024. Despite these cuts, mortgage rates have remained in the high 6% range. The Fed also held unchanged its ongoing quantitative tightening program, which is more strongly focused on balance sheet reduction for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). …Looking forward to future monetary policy, the “dot plot” projections of the SEP leave the Fed forecasting two rate cuts in 2025, followed by just one reduction in 2026 and one more cut in 2027. This projection removes one rate cute from both 2026 and 2027 compared to the March dot plot, although the Fed continues to point to 3% as the long-run, terminal rate for the federal funds rate. [video below captures NAHB mid-year economic update]

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House passes Trump’s domestic policy bill. Here are 5 ways it will impact Oregon

By Amelia Templeton, Dirk VanderHart, Michelle Wiley and Courtney Sherwood
Oregon Public Broadcasting
July 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: US West

Congressional Republicans have passed their domestic policy bill that makes sweeping changes to entitlement programs like Medicaid and SNAP, significantly increases funding for immigration enforcement efforts and cuts funding for a number of environmental programs.  …In Oregon, the impacts of the legislation will be significant. An analysis …found the state would be disproportionately hit by the cuts to Medicaid. The Senate’s version of the bill would also cut funds to the state’s timber counties, and could reshape Oregonian college tuition and student loans. …Oregon will see more logging, less timber money going to local communities and less support for private forest owners. …However much more is logged, Oregon counties will not get a cut. That’s a change from current practice. Many counties in rural areas rely on a cut of revenues from timber sales on federal public lands to pay for schools, law enforcement and public infrastructure.

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Southern Pine Lumber Exports Are Up In April

The Southern Forest Products Association
June 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

April 2025 Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) were up 22.7% over the same month in 2024 at 57.4 MMBF and up 34.8% over March 2025, according to April 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. Year-to-date exports, however, are running 4% behind the same period in 2024 at 179.7 MMBF. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports were up 27% to $22.6 million in April – a 12-month high – compared to the same month in 2024 and up 26% over March 2025. Mexico leads the way YTD 2025 at $20.7 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $15.8 million, and Canada at $5 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, were up 47% compared to April 2025 at $15 million and up 53% over March 2025. …Softwood lumber imports were down 5% in April to 1.2 MMBF over the year and down 13.7% over March 2025.

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European pulp and paper sector remains resilient in uncertain times

By Steve Katz
Label & Narrow Web
July 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The Cepi key statistics report 2024 shows that pulp and paper sector remained resilient in 2024, with a recovery that has partly offset the decline of 2021-2023. While regulatory conditions for global competitiveness is still an issue, sustainability and decarbonization remain priorities. Paper and Board consumption increased by 7.0% in 2024, slightly less than initially expected, but production recorded a higher rebound than first found in Cepi preliminary statistics, published in February (+ 5.9%). Final figures also confirm that the growth has been recorded across all segments of the pulp and paper industry. Packaging paper and board production leads the way with a 6.7% production increase and tissue paper production increased by 5.6%. Graphic paper, used for books, newsprint, and printing and writing paper, has at least temporarily halted a historical downward movement, with a production increase of 3.8% in 2024.

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UK Softwood Update: June sees cracks in structural softwood demand

By Stephen Powney
The Timber Trades Journal
July 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

UK softwood traders enjoyed a period of strong trading through the first two months of Q2, supported by a rise in demand gaining momentum through both April and May. This followed on from a stable Q1 when imports increased by just under 2% against the same period in 2024. Since the beginning of this year, a number of Nordic producers were short of spruce logs for structural grades, and in many cases switched to pine. That move had a knock-on effect on the amount of redwood available for production at some mills. With good demand and some shortages, Q2 prices moved upwards, not only to the UK but other markets in Europe and the US as well. However, the UK merchants adopted a more sceptical and cautious approach. Many held back from making longer-term commitments on the forward market to ensure the recovery and stability in the market was sustainable.

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Forests attract billions as timber becomes Europe’s new green asset

Interior Daily
July 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Timber and forestry investment is gaining ground in Europe, as private equity increasingly shifts towards climate-aligned strategies. A recent EY report highlights growing momentum behind timber and forestry funds, previously seen as niche, now positioned as core components of sustainability-focused portfolios. Despite global private equity fundraising falling to $680 billion in 2024, the lowest since 2015, investors are favouring fewer, larger deals. Europe is leading in sustainable asset allocation, with over half of all new fund launches in Article 8 and 9 categories under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, according to Morningstar. Timber and forestry funds attracted $8.4 billion in 2024, slightly down from 2023 but above the five-year average. These funds often deliver double-digit internal rates of return, with top-performing vintages exceeding 16 percent.

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Metsä Group’s comparable operating result for April–June 2025 will be clearly negative

Metsä Group
July 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

In its January–March 2025 interim report published on 29 April 2025, Metsä Group estimated that the company’s comparable operating result in April–June 2025 will be weaker than in January–March 2025. The comparable operating result for January–March 2025 was EUR 81 million. Metsä Group now estimates that the company’s comparable operating result in April–June 2025 will be approximately EUR -35 million, which is significantly lower than the company’s previous estimate. The negative comparable operating result was caused particularly by the weak demand for market pulp in Europe and China. The uncertainty caused by US import duties has had a negative impact on the purchasing behaviour of paperboard customers in particular. 

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European sawn timber industry transformed by €400M buying spree

By Sanjoy Narayan
RISI Fastmarkets
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The European sawn timber markets are experiencing unprecedented mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity spanning 2024-2025 while industry leaders race to secure scale and strategic positioning. The consolidation wave spans from Stora Enso’s €137 million acquisition of Finland’s Junnikkala, to Austrian HS Timber Group’s aggressive Baltic expansion through dual Latvian acquisitions. …Distressed asset opportunities have also emerged. …This flurry of deals, concentrated within an 18-month period, represents the industry’s response to margin pressures, supply chain uncertainties, and the need for operational scale in increasingly challenging market conditions. …The current consolidation wave, builds upon a decade-long trend of M&A activity that has steadily reshaped European timber markets. …For traders, the vertical integration trend suggests tighter control over upstream supply chains, potentially reducing spot market availability of both logs and finished products. …The timing proves strategic given that North American mill closures have continued to reshape supply dynamics in global markets. 

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New Homes England 2024 to 2025 housebuilding statistics published

The Government of UK
June 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

UK — Housing programmes delivered by Homes England resulted in 38,308 new houses starting on site and 36,872 new homes completed between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025. This represents an increase in both starts (by 5%) and completions (by 12%) compared to the same period the previous year. 30,087 of new starts on site were for affordable houses — a 0.6% increase on the previous year, and representing 79% of all starts. …Eamonn Boylan, Chief Executive of Homes England, said: ”The statistics demonstrate the importance of programmes like the Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) to enable the delivery of these much-needed homes — and comes hot on the heels of the government committing a further £39 billion in funding to affordable homes over a 10 year period, giving confidence and certainty to the sector.”

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