Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

If high bond yields persist, timberland may find itself in a vexed position

By Russ Taylor, Russ Taylor Global
Global Consulting Alliance
April 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, International

Following the US government’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2, 2025, the bond market experienced significant turmoil. …If high bond yields persist, timberland may find itself in a vexed position—caught between its traditional role as a real biological asset and inflation hedge, and its declining relative appeal compared to more liquid bonds offering higher returns. To remain competitive in this environment, timberland may face pressure to support higher discount rates, which could weigh on valuations. Additionally, tariff escalations and geopolitical tensions could disrupt wood product exports, further increasing risk. …The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that the US tariffs could reverse global goods trade growth in 2025, reducing it from a projected 2.7% increase to a 0.2% decline. In a worst-case scenario, global trade could decline by 1.5%, weakening GDP growth to just 1.7%. …The unpredictability of current trade policy shifts is making reliable forecasting difficult.

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West Fraser reports Q1, 2025 earnings of $42 million

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
April 22, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

VANCOUVER, BC – West Fraser Timber reported first quarter results of 2025. …First quarter sales were $1.459 billion, compared to $1.405 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. First quarter earnings were $42 million, compared to a loss of $62 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The fourth quarter included a non-cash impairment loss of $70 million. …First quarter Adjusted EBITDA was $195 million compared to $140 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. ..The Lumber segment has experienced a slower than expected start to the year, owing to transportation and weather challenges that have influenced shipments as well as uncertainty related to demand impacts from the U.S. administration’s shifting tariff policies. …The global pulp market has begun to experience disruption with the economic impact of US tariffs creating considerable demand uncertainty in Chinese markets. As such, we anticipate NBSK pricing weakness over the near- to medium-term and a potentially significant adverse financial impact on our Pulp & Paper segment.

Related in Investing.com: West Fraser Q1 2025 slides: earnings rebound as strategic shift continues

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US construction industry caught between Trump’s timber plans and housing affordability

The Washington Times
April 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump is reshaping America’s timber industry, directing federal agencies to boost domestic lumber production while investigating whether foreign imports pose a national security threat. The US construction market consumes more than 50 billion board feet of lumber annually, with domestic production currently meeting only 70% of demand. Canada fills most of the gap, supplying roughly a quarter of America’s lumber needs. …His executive order instructs the Forest Service and Department of Interior to increase timber sales from public lands. Industry experts, however, question the feasibility of such rapid transformation. Pete Stewart, of ResourceWise, points out significant challenges: “The U.S. would have to build 70 new sawmills to make up the difference.” The geographic reality also presents obstacles. While Southern forests from Virginia to eastern Texas grow 30% more trees than local sawmills demand, forests in the Northwest are already harvesting at capacity. …Critics also question the national security rationale. 

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How might tariffs affect housing construction?

UBS Wealth Management
April 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

This is the USD 64,000 question. …What we currently know is that Canadian softwood lumber carries a 14.5% tariff rate, which could expand to 34.45% later in 2025. …If we split the difference between the NAHB’s and FEA’s estimates, the average sized new home consumes 34,000 bf of lumber. As such, should the tariff increase to 34.45%. …,Should the administration levy an additional 25% “immigration and Fentanyl tariff” on Canadian lumber (which is currently exempt), the cost/home would rise to approximately USD 1,100/home. …In reality, total wood usage in home construction includes a variety of wood types including softwood lumber, oriented strand board, engineered lumber and plywood. Each category has its own pricing and supply dynamics. One additional point… It is estimated that the repair and remodel (R&R) market accounts for 35-40% of lumber demand while single-family home construction accounts for an additional 35%. …For more on the latest real estate trends, see the CIO report.

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Trade war sours Canadian housing market sentiment and recovery

By Robert Hogue
RBC Thought Leadership
April 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The trade war is derailing what was shaping up to be a solid recovery in Canada’s housing market. Concerns about the potential economic hit from U.S. tariffs have clearly unsettled buyers in the past two months, many of whom pausing their search for a home. This has resulted in resale activity plummeting 12% nationwide since January, including a 4.8% drop between February and March. The supply of existing homes for sale, meanwhile, is continuing to grow. New listings increased 3% from February to March, and the number of active listings reached a five-year high last month. Buyers are able to extract price concessions from sellers with more options to choose from amid a murkier economic landscape. The national composite MLS Home Price Index fell for a third consecutive time in March, edging -1% lower from February and -2.1% from a year ago. …Click here for RBC’s Housing Market Update.

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Here’s what’s about to become more expensive with the next round of tariffs

By Alicia Wallace
CNN Business
April 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump is forging ahead with his aggressive tariff campaign, moving on from “reciprocal” tariffs to the sector-specific tariffs he promised. To do so will involve Trump’s continued application of Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows a president to impose tariffs to protect or bolster domestic industries if there are deemed potential national security threats. What used to be a rarely employed trade provision has been a favorite instrument. The Commerce Department previously launched Section 232 probes into copper and lumber. And earlier this month, the administration started investigating pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.  …Softwood lumber is a critical and preferred ingredient for homebuilding, and 30% of it is imported by the US. Homebuilders warn that tariffs on softwood lumber and other materials could further exacerbate the housing affordability crisis. Higher costs of lumber imports could also affect other products, such as furniture and even toilet paper.

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Sector-specific Tariffs: Estimating the Costs

By Jacob Jensen
American Action Forum
April 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump continues to threaten immanent sector-specific tariffs. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, semiconductors, chemicals and minerals, and energy. …This research estimates that if the Administration places a 25% tariff on these six product categories, US firms will pay an additional $79.7 billion in taxes within the first year. …A lower tariff of 10% would result in $36.2 billion in costs. …Setting aside the financial costs, there will likely be downstream impacts to U.S. employment in sectors reliant on many of these product-categories for inputs. For example, lumber and wood are an input for homebuilders, furniture makers, and even sports equipment. …The Trump Administration started a Section 232 investigation on March 1 to investigate the entire lumber industry. …The fact the Trump Administration has already begun placing tariffs on Canadian lumber products indicates broader sector-level tariffs may begin soon. The new anti-dumping duty rate, combined with the new tariffs, will raise the cost of lumber.

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Despite Exemptions and Delays, Tariffs are Already Affecting US Builders

By Paul Emrath
NAHB Eye on Housing
April 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Home builders have already started to feel the effects of US tariff policy, according to NAHB member surveys. This is true even though the Administration enacted a 90-day hiatus, with tariffs on countries other than China… and subsequently granted temporary exemptions for a broad range of electronic products. …Significant uncertainty about the final outcome still remains. The US may revisit trade policy for Canada and Mexico, China-U.S. negotiations are unsettled, and the effects of the 10% tariff on building products from other countries are difficult to predict. …In the meantime, economic uncertainty can adversely affect consumer confidence and make prospective home buyers hesitate. This is one of the reasons the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) declined in March. The NAHB estimates that the average new single-family home requires $174,155 worth of building materials. Previous NAHB research has shown that 7.3% of materials in residential construction, or $12,713 of materials costs, is imported.

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Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 2.75% despite weakening inflation, as tariff war threatens global economy

By John MacFarlane and Jeff Lagerquist
Yahoo Finance
April 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75 per cent on Wednesday, ending a run of seven consecutive cuts. The decision, for which the market had given roughly even odds, comes following weakening inflation data published yesterday, and as Canadian and global economies contend with U.S. President Donald Trump’s twisting trade war. In its decision, the Bank noted various signs of the Canadian economy slowing, and outlined two possible scenarios that underline the uncertainty of the trade war. “Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter,” the central bank said in a statement alongside the decision. “Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.”

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Proposed federal housing solutions don’t match the problem: B.C. economist

By Wolf Depner
Victoria News
April 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

A BC economist says policy proposals from the federal parties do not measure up to the scope of Canada’s housing problem. “(Much) of the policy shift is shifting in the right direction. We still have the problem that the concrete policies on the table don’t match the scale of the housing crisis,” Alex Hemingway, with BC Society for Policy Solutions, said. …Hemingway said he vetted the platforms through two questions: what are plans doing to significantly increase the supply of more affordable housing in the non-market sector; and how to address exclusionary zoning that exists in the biggest, most expensive cities. …Despite all the funding promises, it is still difficult to increase density in areas currently zoned for single-family homes. …If Canada is looking for ways to reduce its economic dependence on the US, “dealing with these fundamental issues of housing and exclusionary zoning, should be an economic priority.”

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Statistics Canada reports February wholesale trade figures up 0.3 per cent

Canadian Press in Business in Vancouver
April 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

OTTAWA — Wholesale trade, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.3 per cent to $85.7 billion in February, Statistics Canada said Monday. The overall increase in sales came as just two of the seven subsectors posted gains. Statistics Canada said sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector gained 7.1 per cent for the month to $19 billion. All four of the subsector’s industry groups climbed, with the computer and communications equipment and supplies industry group up 11.2 per cent, while the construction, forestry, mining, and industrial machinery, equipment and supplies industry group added 6.8 per cent.

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Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports annual pace of housing starts slowed in March

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
April 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

OTTAWA – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in March slowed compared with February. The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts came in at 214,155 units in March, down from 221,405 in February. The change came as the annual pace of starts in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater fell 2.8 per cent to 203,285 compared with 209,093 in February. The annual pace of starts of single-detached homes in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater rose one per cent to 43,012 in March, while the rate of starts of all other homes in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater fell four per cent to 160,273. The annual pace of rural starts was estimated at 10,870 in March. The six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate fell 0.7 per cent in March to 235,316.24.

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Canada’s housing starts unchanged since 1970s, while Canadian population growth has more than tripled

By The Fraser Institute
Cision Newswire
April 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

VANCOUVER — The annual number of new homes being built in Canada in recent years is virtually the same as it was in the 1970s, despite annual population growth now being three times higher, finds a new study published by the Fraser Institute. “Despite unprecedented levels of immigration-driven population growth following the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada has failed to ramp up homebuilding sufficiently to meet housing demand,” said Steven Globerman, co-author of The Crisis in Housing Affordability: Population Growth and Housing Starts 1972–2024. Between 2021 and 2024, Canada’s population grew by an average of 859,473 people per year, while only 254,670 new housing units were started annually. From 1972 to 1979, a similar number of new housing units were built—239,458—despite the population only growing by 279,975 people a year. As a result, more new residents are competing for each new home than in the past, which is driving up housing costs.

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Lumber Futures Fall Toward $580

Trading View
April 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell toward $580 per thousand board feet, sliding further from a two-and-a-half-year high of $685 on March 24th, reflecting a steep decline in construction demand amid disruptive trade policies. The US decision to raise duties on Canadian softwood lumber to roughly 34% has sparked significant uncertainty and raised homebuilding costs, prompting builders to delay projects. Concurrently, Canadian production has been restricted by widespread sawmill closures, diminished timber stocks due to the mountain pine beetle, and tightening forestry policies in key regions like British Columbia, resulting in a surplus that further drives down prices. While there is a gradual shift toward lower-cost Southern Yellow Pine from the US South, logistical and technical hurdles limit its ability to fully offset the reduced Canadian supply. Market participants are adjusting to lower demand expectations amid ongoing trade tensions and a slowing construction sector.

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Despite seasonal uptick, few if any expect lumber demand to move into high gear

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
April 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

It has been a mixed month for North American lumber markets, with S-P-F prices posting modest declines and SYP prices grinding steadily higher. …Lumber demand is showing signs of a slight seasonal uptick (data on February housing starts were solid), yet few, if any, expect demand to move into high gear this spring given lingering macroeconomic concerns and elevated mortgage rates. As has been the case for the past couple of months, tariffs/tariff threats continue to have an outsized impact on markets. With tariffs not forthcoming on Canadian wood products (a sigh of relief for Canadian producers), we anticipate that S-P-F prices will move lower in the coming months, until higher lumber duties kick in. 

When the recently announced softwood lumber duty rates take effect in late August… sawmilling economics will become exceedingly difficult for most Canadian mills, making additional capacity closures likely unavoidable (higher-cost British Columbia will once again be the most vulnerable region). North American lumber demand has been stuck in low gear for more than two years now, although lumber markets have been generally well balanced for the past two quarters; this is largely because of a decline in overall North American lumber supply. …We anticipate that lumber demand will be flat to modestly up in 2025 (with R&R potentially a bigger driver than new residential construction), with inherent downside risk. Overall, markets should remain tensioned as expected growth in US South output should be largely offset by further declines in BC output. 

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Lumber industry dismayed as US duties soar on Canadian softwood lumber

By Jordan Gowling
The Financial Post
April 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The US Department of Commerce is set to hike duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 34% this fall, the latest blow in a dispute with Canada that goes back decades. “We’re going to need some support measures put in place to help us weather this storm,” Kurt Niquidet, president of the BC Lumber Trade Council. “There’s going to be some financial liquidity issues for companies.” …“It’s obviously very concerning,” Ian Dunn, CEO at the Ontario Forest Industries Association, said. “Even under the existing trade environment, with the duties that we’ve seen historically, we’ve seen companies curtail operations, we’ve seen companies close mills, reductions of shifts and layoffs.” …Trump has also launched an investigation into timber and lumber products from several countries based on national security grounds. He has threatened further tariffs on Canadian lumber and has signed an executive order that calls for an increase of domestic timber production.

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Tariffs on Canadian Lumber Set To Double in Surprise Move—Sending Homebuilder Stocks Plunging

By Keith Griffith
Realtor.com News
April 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Homebuilder stocks plunged Monday following reports that the US is preparing to sharply increase tariffs on Canadian lumber, independent of President Donald Trump’s new “reciprocal” tariffs. …After reports of the new lumber duties emerged over the weekend, however, shares of homebuilders plunged swiftly Monday. …”Tariffs are the clear culprit for the stock market pullback and fears of recession,” says Realtor.com® Senior Economist Joel Berner. “Recession risk is especially poignant for builders.” …The latest round of tariffs, however, will likely increase materials costs for all homebuilders, to some extent, with a recent survey of builders finding that they expect an average cost increase of $9,200 per home as a result of tariffs. …Over the weekend, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi raised his outlook for the odds of a recession this year to 60%, up from just 15% a few months ago.

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BC housing feeling the chill of global trade storm

By Bryan Yu, Chief Economist, Central 1
The Times Colonist
April 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on Vancouver’s housing market in March, deepening the slowdown in activity. Escalating US trade actions have fuelled fears of a recession, job losses and equity market volatility, pushing many potential buyers to the sidelines. The latest data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate boards showed a deepening of the sales pullback in March. MLS sales fell 17.6% year over year. …The severe drop in home sales aligns with declining business confidence, which has plunged to record lows—a pretty good bet that weak confidence is playing out in housing. With sales held back, inventory has ballooned. Active listings were up 43% year over year and marching higher. …Meanwhile, after recording a surplus in merchandise trade balance for two consecutive months, Canada’s trade balance shifted to a deficit in February as exports retreated significantly following a frontloading of US imports.

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New Home Sales Rise in March

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
April 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

A modest decline in mortgage rates and lean existing inventory helped boost new home sales in March even as builders and consumers contend with uncertain market conditions. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in March increased 7.4% to a 724,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a revised January number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in March was up 6.0% compared to a year earlier. The March new home sales data shows that demand continues to be present in the market, provided affordability conditions permit a purchase. An increase in economic certainty would be a big boost to future sales conditions. Lower mortgage interest rates helped boost the pace of new home sales in March.

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Houzz report shares share remodelling dollars are going

By Annie Palmer
Hardware Retailing
April 22, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Houzz released the 2025 U.S. Houzz & Home Study, a report surveying over 22,000 US homeowners about remodeling, building and decorating activity. The study found 54% of homeowners renovated their homes in 2024 at a median spend of $20,000. Overall median spend decreased from its peak of $24,000 in 2023 and remains above the $18,000 spent in 2018. …“The softening in renovation spend reflects the impact of elevated borrowing costs and the rising prices for everyday goods and services,” says Marine Sargsyan, Houzz economist. “What stands out, however, is homeowners’ ongoing demand and consistent investment in sizable kitchen and bathroom upgrades. Notable growth in spend on smaller spaces signals that even amid economic pressures, homeowners are prioritizing meaningful improvements no matter the size of the home.” …53% of renovating homeowners updated their outdoor spaces in 2024, completing around two outdoor projects on average. … Homeowners are also investing in decks, sheds and workshops (8%) and gazebos and pergolas (7%). 

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Trade War Will Create Further Economic and Financial Market Stress

The National Association of Home Builders
April 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

A global trade war is underway, causing significant economic and financial market disruptions. …For financial markets, the 10-year Treasury rate is settling at near 4.5%, as an additional risk premium for US government debt is imposed by investors. The rate has also increased due to expectations for higher inflation in 2025. Separately, duties on Canadian lumber are set to rise from 14.5% to 34.5% later this year. Treasury rates are worth watching in the weeks ahead. There remains a liquidity risk if a significant portfolio reshuffling occurs. Such liquidity risks can produce significant financial and economic distress. However, the bond market appears orderly, for the time being. …Although the negotiations may yield growth opportunities for US energy firms and other exporters, most forecasters are now saying a recession is more likely than not for 2025. NAHB’s forecast for GDP growth in 2025 has been revised lower to near 1%.

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Who Influences the Purchasing of Building Products?

By Eric Lynch
NAHB Eye on Housing
April 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In a previous post, NAHB analyzed where builders and remodelers purchased products, regardless of who ultimately purchases them (themselves or subcontractors). In this post, the question shifts to who is most often responsible for the choice of particular products. When averaging over all 24 building product categories, 60% of builders report they had the most influence on product selection compared to 49% of remodelers. Still, these shares are ranked the highest within their respective sector. Both builders and remodelers reported similar shares of influence for subcontractors, dealers & suppliers, and architects. However, when it comes to the greatest influencer being the customer, this is more prevalent among remodelers (26%) than among builders (16%).

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Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season

NAHB.org
April 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Growing economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns and elevated building material costs kept builder sentiment in negative territory in April, despite a modest bump in confidence due to a slight retreat in mortgage interest rates. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 40 in April, edging up one point from March, according to the NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. “The recent dip in mortgage rates may have pushed some buyers off the fence in March, helping builders with sales activity,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “At the same time, builders have expressed growing uncertainty over market conditions as tariffs have increased price volatility for building materials.” …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 45. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers increased one point to 25 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell 4 points to 43.

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Fannie Mae Panel Expects Home Price Growth to Moderate

Fannie Mae
April 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – Following national home price growth of 5.8% in 2024, a panel of more than 100 housing experts forecasts home price growth to average 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, according to the Q1 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics. The panel’s latest estimates of national home price growth represent revisions from last quarter’s expectations of 3.8% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI).

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US Building Material Prices Continue to Grow at Slower Pace

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
April 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 0.6% in March according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in February was revised upward to 0.7%. …The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 1.3% from March of last year. The index can be broken into two components—the goods component also increased 1.3% over the year, with services increasing 1.3% as well. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 2.7% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 0.9% and final demand for services up 3.6% over the year.

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US Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March

The University of Michigan
April 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March. This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation. Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year. Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009. This lack of labor market confidence lies in sharp contrast to the past several years, when robust spending was supported primarily by strong labor markets and incomes. 

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European pulp and paper industry weighs impact of US tariffs

By Sharon Levrez
RISI Fastmarkets
April 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

The European pulp and paper industry is struggling to assess the possible impact of tariffs. …Europe has a marginally negative trade balance with the US for pulp and paper. In 2024, it imported 2.6 million tonnes of P&P from the US. In the same year, it exported 2.3 million tonnes of P&P to the country. The largest trade deficits appear to be around pulp (-975,000 tonnes) and containerboard (-310,000 tonnes, mostly kraftliner). On the other hand, Europe has a surplus in graphic paper and cartonboard sales. …“The only certainty we have is that there will be negative consequences for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Trade wars are always detrimental for consumers, but we are a ‘made in Europe’ industry, with local capacities to meet the European demand,” he added. …Most market participants believe the stuttering trade war initiated by Trump will further hurt the already stagnating European economy.

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US Inflation Cooled in March

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
April 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Inflation slowed to a 6-month low in March, largely driven by lower energy costs, especially in gasoline prices. Despite the easing, the report likely only captures part of the first wave of global tariffs announcement. The inflationary pressure from tariffs and escalating trade war continues to threaten the economic growth and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, while housing inflation remains elevated, it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a seven straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since November 2021. …During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% in March. …The “core” CPI increased by 2.8% over the past twelve months. A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 4.0% over the year.

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US Remodeling Market Sentiment Down in First Quarter

By Eric Lynch
The NAHB Eye on Housing
April 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Sentiment declined among remodelers in the first quarter of 2025, following a similar trend last month in single-family home builder sentiment. The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 63 in the first quarter, down five points compared to the previous quarter. While this reading is still in positive territory, this is only the second time since the first quarter of 2020 that the RMI has been as low as 63. Tariffs and economic uncertainty were top-of-mind for consumers this quarter. …Nevertheless, strong tailwind factors, such as an aging population, aging housing stock, home equity gains post-COVID, and “locked-in” (definition) existing homeowners, will continue to keep remodeling spending solid for the foreseeable future according to NAHB’s forecast.

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J.P Morgan Asset Management’s Campbell Global Announces Close of $1.5 billion Forest & Climate Solutions Fund II

PR Newswire
April 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

J.P. Morgan Asset Management today announced the close of Campbell Global’s Forest & Climate Solutions Fund II at $1.5 billion, exceeding its fundraising target. The fund launched in 2022 with a fundraising target of $1 billion and was the first fund launched following J.P. Morgan’s acquisition of Campbell Global in 2021. In addition to the fund, Campbell Global also closed several separate account mandates, bringing the total capital raise to $2.3 billion. “We’re very pleased to put our decades of experience in global timberland management to work for this quality group of investors interested in responsibly managed forests that generate income and value-appreciation and are a positive climate solution. Along with the financial attributes, the removal of carbon, protection of water, and enhancement of biodiversity and habitats encompass some of the important work we do in the forests on behalf of our investors,” said John Gilleland, Chief Executive Officer of Campbell Global.

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North American lumber industry struggles with closures, tariffs and post-pandemic demand shift

By Dustin Jalbert
RISI Fastmarkets
April 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

North American lumber producers face a multi-layered challenge as permanent capacity closures, steeply rising Canadian duties, and potentially transformative Section 232 tariffs converge to create what could be the most disruptive trade environment since the Smoot-Hawley era. These shifts are occurring while the market continues to work through post-pandemic demand recalibration, with consumption still approximately 9% below COVID-era peaks. …The US South’s position as the low-cost producing region continues to drive structural shifts in North American lumber production. Southern Yellow Pine’s share of total production has increased steadily, a trend that will accelerate under current trade conditions. …However, this “pivot to pine” hasn’t been frictionless. The post-pandemic market has seen Southern Yellow Pine trading at unprecedented discounts to Western SPF, frequently reaching $150-$200 per thousand board feet. These discounts reflect both the challenges in species substitution and the supply imbalance created by a decade of capacity expansion in the South coinciding with post-pandemic demand recalibration.

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Canadian lumber taxes could further increase new home costs

By Dave Gallagher
Real Estate News
April 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

While the current tariff war is justifiably on the minds of many Americans, another type of import tax may be coming later this summer that could have a big impact on new home construction. …The US is preparing to raise duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 14.5% to 34.45%. …A final review of the levies will be published in August or September, with the rate increase taking effect then, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The NAHB has previously estimated that Trump’s tariffs could increase the cost of building a new home by $9,200. ….The proposal to more than double the tax would be a blow to Canadians, but it would also mean “driving up housing costs for Americans,” BC Premier David Eby said. …Some have praised the proposal, suggesting that it will give domestic lumber companies an opportunity to increase production, even if that means higher costs.

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Almost Half of the Owner-Occupied Homes Built Before 1980

By Na Zhao
NAHB – Eye on Housing
April 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Around 48% of the U.S. housing stocks dates back to the 1980s and earlier. The median age of owner-occupied homes has climbed to 41 years in 2023, up from 31 years in 2005 according to the latest data from the American Community Survey. The U.S. owner-occupied housing stock has aged rapidly, particularly since the Great Recession, as the residential construction continues to fall behind in delivering new homes. …As a result, the aging housing stock signals a future growing remodeling market. Older structures require updates to add new amenities or need repairs or replacements of old components. …Over the long run, the aging of the housing stock implies that remodeling may grow faster than new construction.

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Swedish forest industry calls US tariffs regrettable as pulp and paper exports face 10% duty

Lesprom Network
April 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

The Swedish Forest Industries Federation expresses concern over newly imposed US tariffs on pulp, paper, and board imports from the EU, which took effect on April 5 at 10% and are scheduled to double to 20% by April 2025. The federation emphasizes that free trade is critical to the Swedish forest industry, which is heavily export-oriented, with 5–10% of its exports directed to the United States. Europe remains its largest market, accounting for around 60%. …The federation’s CEO, Viveka Beckeman, highlights that the sector depends on international demand. While timber has been excluded from the latest round of tariffs, it remains under review in an ongoing US investigation that may lead to import duties as early as November 2025. The industry, which employs approximately 140,000 people in Sweden either directly or indirectly, represents 9–12% of the country’s industrial employment, export, turnover, and added value. 

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What the closure of International Paper’s fluff pulp mill says about the direction of the market

ResourceWise Forest Products Blog
April 23, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

The closure of International Paper’s Georgetown mill, which represented approximately 5% of US fluff pulp production, has sparked renewed interest in the underlying drivers of change within the fluff pulp sector. While it might be tempting to view this move as part of a larger market correction due to factors such as oversupply, the data suggests a different story. The shutdown is more accurately seen as a strategic decision tied to cost optimization and shifting corporate priorities rather than a response to excess global capacity. Contrary to the notion of global oversupply, fluff pulp capacity has remained relatively stable over the past decade. …The closure underscores a confluence of evolving cost structures and operational realities. Older sites like Georgetown, face growing challenges from energy costs, labor, and environmental compliance. Georgetown ranked among the highest-risk fluff pulp mills based on cost position and technical age.

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February 2025 Southern Pine Lumber Exports Report

Southern Forest Products Association
April 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

February 2025 Southern Pine lumber exports (treated and untreated) were up 4.7% to 40.8 Mbf over January but were down 15% over February 2024, according to February 2025 data from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services’ Global Agricultural Trade System. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports are down 4% compared to the first two months of 2024 at $32 million. Mexico led the way at $8.4 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $6.7 million, and Canada at $3.3 million. The total global value in February, however, hit a five-month high of $16.5 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, were down 8% to $18.3 million through the first two months of 2025 compared to a year ago led by Jamaica at $3 million, the Leeward-Windward Islands at $2.6 million, and the Netherlands Antilles with $2 million.

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‘Tariff hokey pokey’ is making things difficult for the construction industry

By John Camera
Spectrum News 1
April 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

NEW YORK — Associated General Contractors of New York State CEO Mike Elmendorf says that under the tariffs proposed by President Trump, the cost for any kind of construction could further skyrocket. “When tariffs go on a material that is sourced from outside the United States, a funny thing happens,” Elmendorf said. “In many cases, domestic producers or suppliers of that material raise their price too because they can. Not as much as the tariff, but it sort of, it pushes everything up.” …Canadian lumber is one of the most critical imports needed for U.S. construction. “Especially the builders up in Western New York are concerned it’s going to affect them quicker and harder than the rest of the state,” said New York State Builders Association Executive Director Mike Fazio. Elmendorf said what might be an even bigger issue than the tariffs themselves is the uncertainty surrounding them.” 

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‘We’re stuck’: Pittsburgh homebuilding businesses adapting to Trump tariffs

By Adam Babetski
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
April 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

Marie Fallon, the general manager of AR Chambers Supply in Lawrenceville, is nervous about the future of her business. The threat of tariffs has prices fluctuating and she’s worried her supply sources are at risk. …As President Donald Trump’s international trade war rages on, Pennsylvania homebuilding and construction businesses are weathering the dizzying pace of cost increases and then abrupt pauses in tariffs as they try to ensure that long-term projects are completed. Pennsylvania is highly dependent on foreign countries for construction materials, with 63% of the state’s wood imports, 66% of its iron and steel, and 68% of its aluminum coming from Canada and Brazil. …Despite the whiplash changes, some in the industry see the new tariffs as good for the long-term outlook. Hodgkiss Lumber owner Jon Hodgkiss sees Trump’s tariffs as simply a temporary negotiating tactic that will give the US better trade deals.

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Nippon Paper Industries joins the International Sustainable Forestry Coalition

EIN Presswire
April 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The International Sustainable Forestry Coalition (ISFC) is pleased to announce that Nippon Paper Industries has joined the Coalition in the Full Member category. Nippon Paper Industries is one of the largest forest and paper companies in the world. It has more than 15,000 employees globally and is the largest processor by volume of wood in Japan. Equipped with its innovative technological assets from genomic selection for plantation tree breeding to cellulosic biorefinery for bioethanol, cattle feed, and more, Nippon Paper Industries brings to the ISFC an ambitious vision for maximizing the value of natural capital.

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Australia’s Wood & Wood Products Trade With USA

Forest & Wood Products Australia
April 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

This analysis seeks to provide an understanding of Australia’s wood products trade with the USA. …In calendar year 2024, Australia operated a trade deficit for wood and wood products with the USA, valued at AUD84.2 million. That is, Australia exported wood and wood products valued at AUD9.0 million, while imports from the USA were valued at AUD93.2 million. That balance of trade deficit was the lowest in many years. Imports from the USA accounted for 3.5% of total wood and wood products imports by value. The USA was the fifth largest supplier to Australia, with total imports valued at AUD2.657 billion. Exports to the USA accounted for just 0.5% of total wood and wood products exports by value. The USA received the ninth highest value of Australian products, which in aggregate were valued at AUD1.639 billion, dominated by woodchip exports.

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