Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

U.S. Chamber Comments on Section 232 Investigation of Imports of Timber and Lumber

US Chamber of Commerce
April 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Dear Deputy Assistant Secretary Longnecker: The U.S. Chamber strongly opposes the establishment of tariffs or quantitative restrictions on imports of timber, lumber, and their derivative products such as paper, cardboard, and pulp. Imports of these goods do not represent a national security risk, as addressed below. Imposing tariffs on these goods would raise costs for U.S. businesses and home construction, undermine the export success enjoyed by the U.S. paper industry, and reduce incomes in many U.S. communities… It is unreasonable to suggest that imports of these goods represent a national security risk, in part because the chief source of imports in this sector is Canada, a NATO ally and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) partner… It is not reasonable to claim that imports of these goods from a close ally somehow pose a threat to U.S. national security.

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Canada’s housing market projections point to slowdown from 2025 – 2027

The REMI Network
March 31, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Predicting Canada’s economic future remains challenging due to ongoing tariff disputes, reduced immigration targets, and changes in federal leadership, all of which contribute to housing market uncertainty. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest Housing Market Outlook, these factors will inevitably influence rental housing demand. CMHC forecasts that in 2025, rent growth across most Canadian markets will slow as vacancy rates increase, ultimately leading to gradual improvements in rental affordability. As per the report, “We expect lower immigration and an increase in first-time homebuyers to continue to reduce rental demand throughout 2025 – 2027. Supply will continue to expand as new rental units are completed, leading to higher vacancies and slower rent increases.”

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Canada’s GDP grew 0.4% in January, following a 0.3% increase in December

Statistics Canada
March 28, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.4% in January, following a 0.3% increase in December. Both goods-producing and services-producing industries were up, with 13 of 20 sectors rising in January. …Construction rose 0.7% in January as most types of construction activity were up. Residential building construction (+1.4%) was the largest contributor to the increase in January, posting its fifth increase in six months and bringing activity to its highest level since November 2023. Higher multi-unit construction activity in Ontario and greater activity in home alterations and improvements drove the increase in January 2025. Repair construction was up 1.2% in January, while non-residential building construction (+1.2%) posted its sixth consecutive increase, driven by higher activity in public and industrial building construction in January.

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Lumber Futures Near 2-1/2-Year Highs

Trading View
March 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rose toward $680 per thousand board feet, approaching a two-and-a-half-year high of $685 seen on March 24th, driven largely by the looming threat of additional tariffs. Proposed increases could raise Canadian lumber duties from around 15% to nearly 40%, a critical factor given that Canada supplies roughly 25% of U.S. lumber—even as some production has migrated to the U.S. South. Meanwhile, year-over-year, the housing market reveals modest contractions, with housing starts declining by 3% compared to the previous year and new home sales exhibiting similar softness, even as existing home sales show relative stabilization. This backdrop of enduring supply constraints—exacerbated by transportation delays and inventory hoarding—combined with the persistent, albeit slightly subdued, demand in the construction sector, underscores a market environment where tariff-driven supply pressures support elevated lumber prices amid ongoing uncertainty.

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Tariffs, seasonal demand drive flatbed trucking rate increases

By Alejandra Carranza
TruckingDive.com
March 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Flatbed trucking rates have surged over the past month as steel and lumber shippers hurry to stockpile inventory amid tariff whiplash threatening to roil their supply chains, experts say. A six-week increase in rates has led to the highest flatbed pricing to start a year since 2017, according to DAT, as freight repositioning combines with a typical seasonal pickup in construction and other industries. “Demand usually picks up in March and April as planti ng, building, construction, machinery imports, and nursery seasons gear up,” said DAT Principal Analyst Dean Croke. “…Last week, the average flatbed spot rate went up 4 cents to $2.13 per mile compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the load-to-truck ratio for flatbed went up to 46.92 from 41.12 loads per truck.Shippers have pulled forward cargo imports such as machinery, lumber, metals and oversized flatbed freight to mitigate tariff uncertainty. 

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Natural resource indicators, fourth quarter 2024

By Statistics Canada
Government of Canada
March 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the natural resources sector remained flat (0.0%) in the fourth quarter of 2024, after experiencing a similar movement in the third quarter. In comparison, economy-wide real GDP rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.5% rise in the previous quarter. Real GDP weakened across a number of natural resources subsectors in the fourth quarter, with there being declines in the forestry (-1.3%), hunting, fishing and water (-1.2%) and minerals and mining (-0.1%) subsectors. …Despite the slight decline in real GDP, natural resource export volumes increased 5.0% in the fourth quarter, following a rise of 1.0% in the previous quarter. The increase was mainly attributable to the energy (+5.7%), forestry (+4.9%) and minerals and mining (+3.7%) subsectors… Natural resource prices increased 0.7% in the fourth quarter, following a decrease of 2.9% in the previous quarter. Prices increased in the minerals and mining (+5.5%), forestry (+4.2%) 

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Tariffs may accelerate Canadian lumber industry’s southward shift, hunt for new markets

By Mrinalika Roy and Seher Dareen
Reuters
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat could motivate more Canadian lumber producers to shift to the US southern border while accelerating efforts to find new markets, industry experts said. The levies are the latest in a nearly four-decade dispute between the neighbors over softwood lumber, used in construction, furniture and paper production. Levies on Canadian lumber could hit 40% if current duties of 14.54%, and Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs are added. …”Disparity in log costs and availability are the major drivers here, but Canadian investment in the region has certainly been partially motivated to moving operations where they avoid the impact of duties,” said Dustin Jalbert at FastMarkets. …”In 2004, there were only two sawmills owned by a Canadian manufacturer. Today, we have more than 50,” said Kyle Little, at Sherwood Lumber.” Canadian companies now produce more than a third of the volume of the largest producing region in the US – the US South.”

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How tariffs could raise home and auto rates

By Alyssa DiSabatino
The Canadian Underwriter
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

If there is a prolonged trade war between the US and Canada, expect insurance rates… to rise in price. The industry notes there’s a lot of uncertainty about tariffs right now. But one outcome the industry can likely count on is increases to home and auto rates, says Steven Harris. …Although home insurance premiums haven’t increased as high as auto rates — in 2024 Q4, for example, personal property premium rates increased 7.3% from the previous year — consumers are likely to see any impacts from the tariffs appear on their home insurance policy renewal much sooner, says Harris. “And if building materials like software lumber are tariffed, and thereby more expensive to import, they’ll cost more to insure. …“Tariffs on building materials directly inflate rebuilding expenses, necessitating higher replacement cost coverage for homeowners.”

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Buying a house is expensive. Lumber tariffs will make it worse

By Vanessa Yurkevich
CNN Business
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

CNN’s Vanessa Yurkevich explains how much US home prices could increase due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. [Video report only, 2 .5 minutes]

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Inflation’s surprise jump could push Bank of Canada to pause rate cuts

The Canadian Press in BNN Bloomberg
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

A surprise jump in inflation and a flood of “noise” in the economy may push the Bank of Canada to pause its interest rate cuts next month, some economists argue. Statistics Canada said that the annual rate of inflation accelerated sharply to 2.6% in February as the federal government’s temporary tax break came to an end mid-month. That marks a sizeable jump from the 1.9% increase seen in January, when Canadians saw GST and HST taken off a variety of household staples. …Economists expect Ottawa’s move to strike the consumer carbon price as of April 1 will take some steam out of the inflation figures next month. But Nguyen argued the pressure from the trade dispute — Trump has threatened another wave of tariffs on April 2 — will “outweigh” the benefits of eliminating the carbon price for consumers.

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Canada’s investment in building construction rose 1.8% in January

Statistics Canada
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Overall, investment in building construction rose 1.8% (+$393.7 million) to $22.1 billion in January. The residential sector increased 2.3% to $15.4 billion, while the non-residential sector was up 0.8% to $6.7 billion. Year over year, investment in building construction grew 5.7% in January. On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), investment in building construction increased 1.5% from the previous month to $13.2 billion in January and was up 2.5% year over year. …Investment in multi-unit construction was up $497.5 million to $8.2 billion in January. Single-family home investment declined $155.5 million to $7.2 billion in January, with declines being recorded in eight provinces and one territory. …Investment in non-residential construction increased $51.7 million to $6.7 billion in January. This marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase. 

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Tariff Uncertainty Keeping Canadian Home Buyers on the Sidelines

The Canadian Real Estate Association
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canadian home sales fell sharply from January to February, as home buyers remained on the sidelines in the first full month of the ongoing trade war with the United States. Sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems dropped 9.8% month-over-month in February 2025, marking the lowest level for home sales since November 2023, and the largest month-over-month decline in activity since May 2022. “The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. …There were 4.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2025, up sharply from 4.1 months at the end of January. The long-term average is five months of inventory.

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Trade turmoil forecast to slash growth in Canada and Mexico

By Faarea Masud
BBC News
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Trump’s escalating trade tariffs will hit world growth and raise inflation, the OECD has predicted. Canada and Mexico are forecast to see the biggest impact as they have had the harshest tariffs imposed on them, but US growth is also expected to be hit. …Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. The US has also imposed 25% tariffs on other imports from Mexico and Canada – with some exemptions – and a 20% levy on Chinese goods. Canada and the EU have announced retaliatory tariffs. …Canada’s economy is predicted to grow by just 0.7% this year and in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 2% for both years. Mexico is now forecast to contract by 1.3% this year and shrink a further 0.6% next year, instead of growing by 1.2% and 1.6%. Growth in the US has also been downgraded, with growth of 2.2% this year and 1.6% in 2025, down from previous forecasts of 2.4% and 2.1% China’s growth forecast will fall slightly to 4.8%.

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Trump tariffs on lumber and appliances set stage for higher costs on new homes and remodeling projects

By Alex Veiga, Mae Anderson and Anne D’Innocenzio
The Associated Press in CTV News
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China — some already in place, others set to take effect in a few weeks — are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by US$7,500 to US$10,000, according to the NAHB. We Buy Houses in San Francisco, which purchases foreclosed homes and then typically renovates and sells them, is increasing prices on its refurbished properties between 7% and 12%. That’s even after stockpiling 62% more Canadian lumber than usual. …The timing of the tariffs couldn’t be worse as this is typically the busiest time of year for home sales. …Confusion over the timing and scope of the tariffs, and their impact on the economy, could have a bigger chilling effect on the new-home market than higher prices.

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US Builder Confidence Falls to 7-month Low on Cost Uncertainty

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
The NAHB Eye on Housing
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs and elevated construction costs pushed builder sentiment down in March even as builders express hope that a better regulatory environment will lead to an improving business climate. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 39 in March, down three points from February and the lowest level in seven months. …Construction firms are facing added cost pressures from tariffs. Data from the HMI March survey reveals that builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $9,200 per home. Uncertainty on policy is also having a negative impact on home buyers and development decisions. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 43 in March, its lowest point since December 2023. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped five points to 24 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 47.

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Canada’s housing start slowed 4% in February

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
March 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in February slowed four per cent compared with January. The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate housing starts came in at 229,030 units for February, down from 239,322 in January. The result came as the pace of starts for single-detached homes fell one per cent to 56,273 in February compared with 56,794 in January. The rate of all other housing starts dropped five per cent to 172,759 in February compared with 182,529 a month earlier. CMHC says the seasonally adjusted annual pace of starts for cities with a population of 10,000 or greater fell five per cent in February to 209,784 compared with 220,074 in January. …The six-month moving average for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in February was 239,382, up 1.1% from January.

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US trade war could affect construction inputs in B.C.

By Jami Makin
Business in Vancouver
March 28, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and Canada is impacting BC’s construction sector in ways that could bring short-term gain and long-term pain. At first, there could be an oversupply of lumber if Canadian softwood is taken out of the U.S. equation, resulting in lower costs for B.C. builders and developers, said Padraic Kelly, Vancouver-based director with BTY Group. But costs would later rise significantly, he said. “The medium- and long-term pain would be that if the American market is choked out, mills would close, supply would be constrained and costs would ultimately go up,” Kelly said. The total levy on Canadian softwood lumber going into the U.S. could total between 45% and 55%, taking into account anti-dumping measures introduced by the Biden administration and scheduled to increase this August. Other big-ticket impacts to B.C. construction could be the mechanical and electrical divisions within construction budgets, he said.

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GreenFirst Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter of 2024

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc.
March 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

TORONTO — GreenFirst Forest Products announced results for the year ended December 31, 2024. Highlights include: Q4 2024 net loss from continuing operations was $26.6 million compared to net income of $14.8 million in Q3 2024. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for Q4 2024 was negative $0.9 million compared to negative $15.7 million in Q3 2024. …“Despite higher production, sales during Q4 were impacted negatively by weather-related disruptions that slowed our supply chain. …We continue to navigate the external challenges facing our business, including potential tariffs on exports to the US,” said Joel Fournier, GreenFirst’s CEO. 

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Wall Street joins global sell-off as Trump tariffs fuel recession fears

By Graeme Wearden
The Guardian
March 31, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

Donald Trump’s trade war is alarming the global markets, sending shares sliding in their worst month in over two years. Stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region are in retreat this morning, as investors fear Trump will announce swingeing new tariffs on Wednesday, which has been dubbed “Liberation Day” by the US president. Japan’s Nikkei has lost 3.9%, down 1,457 points at 35,662 points today, while South Korea’s KOSPI is down 3%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has fallen 1.7%. In China, which has already been hit by Trump tariffs this year. the CSI 300 is 0.9% lower. …Today’s selloff comes after Donald Trump told reporters that the reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce this week will include all nations. …On Friday, core inflation rose by more than expected, while consumer sentiment weakened to its lowest level since 2022. 

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Optimism Among CFOs Falls Amid Concerns about Tariffs, Uncertainty

Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta
March 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Economic optimism among chief financial officers dropped in the first quarter of 2025 amid concerns about tariffs and broader economic uncertainty, according to the CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The economic optimism index fell from 66.0 in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 62.1 in the first quarter of 2025, almost erasing gains from a post-election jump. CFOs’ optimism about their own firm’s financial prospects also dipped. …In addition, “uncertainty” was in the top five respondent concerns. …Some firms focused on the uncertainty around tariff policy. “Lumber tariffs … could help or hurt our company,” one said. “Unpredictability … makes it very difficult to plan as a business.” …About a quarter of firms reported that changes to trade policy would negatively impact their hiring and their capital spending plans in 2025. On the sourcing side, almost 30 percent of firms planned to diversify supply chains.

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The construction materials most at risk for tariffs

By Sebastian Obando
Construction Dive
March 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Contractors are bracing for a new wave of tariffs set to take effect April 2, this time on certain material imported from Canada and Mexico — such as steel, aluminum and lumber. Though reports indicate the Trump administration could roll back the ultimate scope of this action, contractors say just the threat of tariffs can have an immediate impact on material costs. That’s why that looming deadline on Canadian and Mexican imports has already sparked concern across the construction industry, particularly around reinforcing and structural steel, curtainwall systems and Canadian lumber, said Steve Stouthamer, executive VP Skanska USA Building. Stouthamer talks about the materials most at risk, tariffs’ impact on budgets and negotiations and steps contractors can take to minimize financial exposure. …The Trump administration has indicated Canadian lumber will be included in the reciprocal tariffs. Lumber has already seen a significant increase, 10% to 15% in cost, in anticipation of this tariff.

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UK’s biofuels policy opens market for U.S. forest products

USDA Economic Research Service
March 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

Since the UK formal departure from the European Union,” the UK’s renewable energy strategy has led to increased imports of biofuels like ethanol, biodiesel, and notably, wood pellets….This initiative has made the UK the world’s largest wood pellet importer, accounting for more than two-thirds of global imports since 2012. The United States has become the primary source of the UK’s wood pellet supply, providing 76% of total imports in 2024. Before 2010, wood pellets made up 1.6% of U.S. forest product exports, but by 2024, they accounted for 19.6%. Since 2012, the UK has imported 71% of U.S. wood pellets. The rise of U.S. wood pellet exports is a direct result of the UK’s initiative for more biofuel-based energy, creating a lucrative market for U.S. forest products. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service report, European Agri-Food Trade and Brexit: The First 3 Years of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

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US Consumer Confidence fell to a 4-year low, expectations for the future to a 12-year low

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month amid growing concerns about the economic outlook and policy uncertainties, especially potential tariffs. Uncertainties continue to weigh on consumer sentiment as consumer confidence dropped to a 4-year low and expectations for the future economy fell to a 12-year low. The persistent decline in sentiment has raised recession concerns as consumers have grown pessimistic about economic conditions. The Consumer Confidence Index fell from 100 to 92.9 in March, the largest monthly decline since August 2021 and the lowest level since February 2021. …The Present Situation Index decreased 3.6 points from 138.1 to 134.5, and the Expectation Situation Index dropped 9.6 points from 74.8 to 65.2, the lowest level since February 2013. This is the second consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.

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Slight Decline in Rates Helps New Home Sales to Edge Higher in February

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

A slight decline in mortgage rates and limited existing inventory helped new home sales to edge higher in February even as housing affordability challenges continue to act as a strong headwind on the market. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in February increased 1.8% to a 676,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a revised January number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in February was up 5.1% compared to a year earlier.

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Remodeling soars to new heights but industry struggles to address labor shortages

JCHS – Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

CAMBRIDGE – The US remodeling market soared above $600 billion in the wake of the pandemic and, despite recent softening, remains 50 percent above pre-pandemic levels. However, industry fragmentation, inflation, and a shortage of skilled trade labor jeopardize the ability of the industry to fully meet demand. According to Improving America’s Housing 2025, a new report out today from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, the extraordinary strength of the remodeling market has been supported by the aging of homes and households, as well as record-high property values, but far more investment is needed to address growing needs for energy efficiency and disaster resilience of the country’s 145 million homes. Five Takeaways from the 2025 report:

  • Pandemic Fuels Unprecedented Spending on Remodeling
  • Climate Change Necessitates Improvement Spending and Drives Up Insurance Premiums
  • The Housing Stock is Older than Ever and Substandard Conditions Must Be Addressed
  • Changing Demographics Affect Remodeling Spending
  • Fragmentation, Surging Costs, and Labor Shortages Hinder Remodelers

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Tariffs Are Going to Make DIY More Expensive

By Karuna Eberl
Family Handyman
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

There is a 20% tariff on products from China and 25% on many goods from Canada and Mexico. What is sure is that they will increase the cost of DIY projects and home renovations, says Pelin Pekgun, at Wake Forest University School of Business. …“While prices will not rise immediately, higher material costs, potential shortages and supply delays could result in tighter renovation budgets in the coming months.” …One of the most significant products the tariffs will impact is lumber. More than 25% of cement and concrete are imported from Canada and Mexico, so the cost of pouring foundations and flatwork, such as driveways and walkways, will likely increase. …Many other building materials will likely get more expensive, including flooring, cabinets, countertops and lighting. Though not a direct consequence of tariffs, labor costs are also a growing concern in the construction industry, says roofer Michael Green.

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US Existing Home Sales Increased in February

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Existing home sales in February increased to the second highest level since March 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This rebound suggests buyers are slowly entering the market as inventory improves and mortgage rates decline from recent high in January. Despite rates easing, economic uncertainty may continue to constrain buyer activity. Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in February. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 1.2% lower than a year ago. The first-time buyer share was 31% in February, up from 28% in January and 26% from a year ago. The existing home inventory level was 1.24 million units in February, up from 1.18 million in January, and up 17.0% from a year ago. 

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US Fell Further in February

The Conference Board
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in February 2025 to 101.1 (2016=100), after a 0.2% decline in January. Overall, the LEI fell by 1.0% in the six-month period ending February 2025, less than half of its rate of decline of –2.1% over the previous six months (February–August 2024). “The US LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. That was the component that weighed down most heavily on the Index in February. Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index’s monthly decline. …We currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.”

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US Fed Remains in Wait and See Mode

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Federal Reserve remained on pause with respect to rate cuts at the conclusion of its March meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. While the central bank acknowledged that the economy remains solid, it emphasized a data- and policy-dependent approach to future monetary policy decisions due to increased uncertainty. According to Chair Powell, the Fed “is not in any hurry” to enact policy change. However, in a small dovish step, the Fed slowed the pace of its balance sheet reduction, but only for Treasuries. …Although the Fed did not directly address ongoing trade policy debates (and particularly trade and tariff details expected on April 2) and their economic implications, it reaffirmed that future monetary policy assessments would consider “a wide range of information.” …Crucially, the Fed reiterated its “strong commitment to support maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective.”

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US Sawmill Production Capacity Constant in 2024

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Sawmill and wood preservation firms reported lower capacity utilization rates coupled with level production and capacity throughout 2024. Despite no growth in production in 2024, utilization rates have trended downwards since 2017 as sawmills have expanded production capability. Even with more production capability, real output has not followed as output remains lower than 2018. …The utilization rate for sawmills and wood preservations firms was 64.7% in the fourth quarter on a four-quarter moving average basis. As utilization rates have shifted lower, the gap between full production capability and actual production has grown. Actual production is typically lower than full capability due to multiple factors ranging from insufficient materials and orders to lack of labor. ..Sawmill production capacity has increased from 2015 but remains lower than peak levels in 2011. …There is room to increase production of domestic lumber, but current production levels remain much unchanged over the past several years.

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US-Canada Trade-War Tensions Show 72% of Americans Expect Housing Market Slowdown

By Sharad Mehta
Resimpli.com
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

A REsimpli survey through Pollfish finds that due to the US-Canada trade-war tensions, 72% of Americans expect the housing market to slow down. This study analyzed 1,200 American citizens who are concerned with major political events and economic changes in the country currently, seeking their input on the trajectory of the country’s housing market. Key Takeaways include:

  • 72% of people believe that ‘Reciprocal Tariffs’ will hurt the US housing market
  • 66.4% of people believe that Canadian investors will pull back from the US
  • 55.9% of people believe housing affordability will be negatively impacted
  • 51.3% of people believe the US mortgage rates will increase
  • 54.5% believe homebuyers will become more cautious
  • 19.3% of the respondents would delay purchasing a home due to trade tensions

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US Single-Family Housing Starts Hit 12-Month High in February

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Limited existing inventory helped single-family starts to post a solid gain in February, but builders are still grappling with elevated construction costs. Overall housing starts increased 11.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.50 million units. …Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 11.4% to a 1.11 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the highest pace since February 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 10.7% to an annualized 393,000 pace. …Overall permits decreased 1.2% to a 1.46-million-unit annualized rate in February and were down 6.8% compared to February 2024. Single-family permits decreased 0.2% to a 992,000-unit rate and were down 3.4% compared to the previous year. Multifamily permits decreased 3.1% to a 464,000 pace. …The number of single-family homes under construction in February was down 6.7% from a year ago, at 640,000 homes.

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Trump Wants to Build Homes on Federal Land. Here’s What That Would Look Like.

By Rebecca Picciotto
The Wall Street Journal
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Trump administration is creating a task force to identify federal land that would be suitable for building affordable housing. The initiative marks the administration’s first step toward a pledge to unlock vast swaths of federal land to address America’s housing shortage by transferring or leasing the land to local governments. The task force will be run jointly by the Interior Department, which oversees the Bureau of Land Management, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the two agencies’ secretaries wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece on Sunday. Developing even 512,000 acres of the Bureau of Land Management’s lots could yield between three million and four million new homes across western states such as Nevada, Utah, California and Arizona, according to a preliminary analysis by the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C., center-right think tank.

[a paid subscription is required to read this article; however, the interactive map feature is freely accessible!]

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Homebuyers, remodelers set to pay more as tariffs on lumber and appliances take effect

Oregon Live
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Shopping for a new home? Ready to renovate your kitchen or install a new deck? You’ll be paying more to do so. The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by $7,500 to $10,000… Such costs are typically passed along to the homebuyer in the form of higher prices, which could hurt demand at a time when the U.S. housing market remains in a slump and many builders are having to offer buyers costly incentives to drum up sales… “These prices will never come down,” Schnipper said. “Whatever is going to happen, these things will be sticky and hopefully we’re good enough as a small business, that we can absorb some of that.”

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US Housing Starts Surge 11.2% in February, But Falling Permits Signal Future Slowdown

FX Empire
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US housing market showed mixed signals in February, with a sharp rise in housing starts contrasting with a decline in building permits. According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, new residential construction activity picked up, but future construction intentions weakened, raising questions about the sector’s near-term strength. Privately-owned housing starts surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February, marking an 11.2% increase from January’s revised figure of 1.350 million. The single-family sector led the gains, with starts rising 11.4% to 1.108 million units. However, despite this strong monthly performance, overall starts remained 2.9% below February 2024 levels, signaling ongoing challenges in year-over-year growth. …This decline extended the downward trend, with permits now 6.8% below year-ago levels. Single-family authorizations remained relatively stable at 992,000, down just 0.2% from January. 

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Trump Team Explored Simplified Plan for Reciprocal Tariffs

By Gavin Bade Follow, Josh Dawsey Follow & Vipal Monga
Wall Street Journal
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Trump administration officials are roiled in debate over how to implement the president’s pledge to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other nations, with aides scrambling to meet the president’s self-imposed deadline of April 2 to debut a plan. Officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the complex task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of U.S. trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to people close to the policy discussions, who emphasized that the situation remains fluid and could evolve in the coming weeks. The proposal was later ruled out, said an administration official close to the talks, adding that Trump’s team is still trying to sort how to implement an individualized rate for each nation. …The reciprocal tariff plan is expected to be introduced on April 2, along with additional 25% duties on a handful of industries, such as autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

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Timber prices set to rise with increased housing starts and investment

By Jennifer Coskren, Kyle Higgins, Lasse Sinikallas, & Austin Lamica
RISI Fastmarkets
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

For 2025, Fastmarkets predicts that total US housing starts and R&R will increase 4% and 1%, respectively. Therefore, prices of lumber, in theory, should increase as demand would increase to meet the growing housing and R&R markets. We anticipate US softwood sawlog prices will trend higher over the forecast. …Additionally, sawlog supplies in most of the major softwood-producing timber baskets outside of the US South will begin to tighten. …Total housing starts are expected to grow 3.7% over the medium-term forecast from 2024 to 2028. By the end of 2028, total starts will average 1.694 million units. This will mark the peak for this construction cycle as demographics ease through the long term. …Despite an anticipated uptick in Southern pine lumber prices in 2025, we predict that Southern pine sawtimber prices will continue to decline and support the persistently weak correlation between lumber and timber in the South.

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New Forests, Oji set up US$300 million forestry fund

By Tom King
The Asset
March 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

In a move that merges sustainable finance with industrial-scale environmental stewardship, Sydney-based natural capital investment manager New Forests has partnered with Japan’s Oji Holdings Corporation, one of the world’s largest pulp and paper producers, to establish the Future Forest Innovations Fund. With an initial commitment of US$300 million ( US$297 million from Oji and US$3 million from New Forests ), the fund aims to acquire and manage 70,000 hectares of plantation forests across Southeast Asia, North and Latin America, and Africa… The partnership signals an alignment between traditional manufacturing and ecological impact investing. Oji Holdings, which already manages 635,000 hectares of plantation forests worldwide, is leveraging this initiative to meet its 2030 net sequestration goal of 1.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, integrating climate action into its global forest footprint.

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UK construction sees increased pine supplies as timber mix evolves

By Stephen Powney
The Timber Trades Journal
March 24, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

The UK construction supply chain is seeing an increase in imports of European Redwood (Pine) as European sawmills face significant disruptions that are impacting the availability of European Whitewood (Spruce), according to Timber Development UK (TDUK). TDUK has issued a Trade Note on the subject, reassuring members that this does not mean there is a shortage of timber available to the UK, but simply that the mix of species being imported is changing. The UK construction industry heavily relies on coniferous timber, with about 65% of our requirements being met through imports. European Whitewood (Spruce) and European Redwood (Pine) are the dominant species, but recent Bark Beetle infestations, geopolitical factors and changing forest management priorities have seen some European sawmill lines temporarily closing.

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China’s property market edges toward an inflection point

By Evelyn Cheng
CNBC
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

BEIJING — UBS analysts became the latest to raise expectations that China’s struggling real estate market is close to stabilizing. “After four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some relatively positive signals,” John Lam at UBS Investment Bank. …“Of course these signals aren’t nationwide, and may be local,” Lam said. One indicator is improving sales in China’s largest cities. Existing home sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of Wednesday. The category is typically called “secondary home sales” in China, in contrast to the primary market, which has typically consisted of newly built apartment homes. UBS now predicts China’s home prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than the mid-2026 timeframe previously forecast. They expect secondary transactions could reach half of the total by 2026.

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