Category Archives: Finance & Economics

MCLEAN, Virginia — Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.37%. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.37% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Recent data points to slightly better conditions for buyers with a boost in new-home sales, median new-home prices being down to their lowest level since July 2021, and higher inventory than in recent years. Together, these trends could modestly ease affordability pressures through the spring homebuying season.” …The 30-year FRM averaged 6.37% as of May 7, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.76%.

There is a research gap in localized remodeling data. To address this, NAHB is debuting a new economic resource: the State Projections of Remodeling (SPR). …SPR will provide a quarterly, state-level estimation of the market share and total dollar value of remodeling spending one month after the release of the NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI). …During the fourth quarter of 2025, remodeling spending at the national level came in at $280.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), accounting for 37.7% of total private residential fixed investment. Even though spending fell for the second consecutive quarter from $282.6 in Q3 2025, remodeling spending has been larger than single-family construction spending for five straight quarters. California had the largest market share of remodeling spending at 7.9%, or $22.1 billion. This is followed by Texas (7.0%, or $19.7 billion), Florida (5.5%, or $15.3 billion), New York (3.9%, or $11.0 billion), and North Carolina (3.0%, or $8.4 billion).

Annual spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes is projected to slow sharply in early 2027, according to the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The new LIRA shows year-over-year growth in home renovation and repair spending of just 0.5% by the first quarter of 2027—a pace that remains positive in nominal terms but is less than overall inflation. “Growth in remodeling permits and retail spending on building products has been flat recently, signaling stagnant interest in home improvement,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Even so, homeowners are expected to maintain spending at roughly last year’s levels, with total improvement and repair expenditures edging up modestly to $523 billion in early 2027.” 

US mortgage rates continued to increase in April as ceasefire negotiations remain inconclusive. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.34% in April, 16 basis points (bps) higher than March. The average 15-year rate also increased by 13 bps to 5.69%. Despite the recent increase, both rates remain lower than a year ago by 39 bps and 21 bps, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.31%, up 7 bps from the previous month. Ongoing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices above $100 per barrel. This has passed through to inflation which climbed to 3.3%, nearing a two-year high. Energy components led the increase with fuel oil prices rising 30.7% and gasoline up 21.2% in March. At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% as inflation remains elevated alongside continued economic expansion. 

Following the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve opted to maintain its current stance, leaving interest rates unchanged. The target for the federal funds rate remains at a top level of 3.75%, where it has stood since December. This meeting may represent the final policy decision led by Jerome Powell in his role as Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, bringing his eight-year tenure in that position to a close. President Trump’s nominee, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is widely expected to secure Senate confirmation and take over in time for the next FOMC gathering. However, Powell plans to continue serving as a member of the Board of Governors after relinquishing the Chair position. …Powell has said he will remain as a Governor as long as the Justice Department’s probe into the cost of the renovations to the Fed’s headquarters remains active.

The April meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy committee featured a lot of institutional news for a month in which the Fed kept monetary policy unchanged. The outlook for the economy and monetary policy remains unclear due to geopolitical turbulence and domestic policy uncertainty. This headline risk is delaying additional Fed monetary policy easing, likely until the end of 2026 or possibly into 2027. The Fed continued its current pause for rate reductions at the conclusion of the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank’s monetary policy decision making body. The FOMC held the short-term federal funds rate at a top rate of 3.75%, the level set in December of last year. This marked the third policy pause since the Fed resumed easing in September of 2025. The Fed’s statement of current economic conditions and policy stance was relatively unchanged from March to April.

WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly edged higher in April amid a rally in share prices following a ceasefire in the war with Iran and improved perceptions of the labor market, helping ​to ease households’ financial worries for now. Despite the rise in confidence to a four-month high, the survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed higher gasoline prices ‌stemming from the conflict with Iran remained a source of concern for consumers. Fewer planned vacations over the next six months and the share of those intending to drive to their holiday destinations was the lowest since April 2020. …The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index climbed 0.6 point to 92.8 this month. Economists had forecast the index easing to ​89.0. It was in stark contrast with the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, which last week showed its Consumer Sentiment Index slumping to a record low in April.

WASHINGTON — US single-family homebuilding increased to a 13-month high in March, but the improvement was likely a blip as permits for future construction fell sharply and confidence among builders remained subdued. Single-family housing starts, ​which account for the bulk of homebuilding, surged 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate ‌of 1.032 million units, the highest level since February 2025, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Single-family housing starts increased to a pace of 941,000 units in February from 898,000 units in January. They rose 8.9% year-on-year in March. Permits ​for future construction of single-family homes decreased 3.8% last month to a rate of 895,000 units. ​They had increased to a pace of 930,000 units in February from 876,000 units ⁠in January. Single-family building permits dropped 7.9% year-on-year in March. …Overall housing ​starts vaulted 10.8% to ⁠a pace of 1.502 million units. They increased 10.8% year-on-year in March.

DALLAS — Kimberly-Clark reported first quarter 2026 results. Highlights include: Net sales of $4.2 billion increased 2.7 percent, as organic sales growth of 2.5 percent and favorable currency impacts of 2.0 percent were partially offset by a 1.8 percent decline from the exit of the company’s private label diaper business in the US. …First quarter operating profit was $753 million compared to $631 million in the prior year. Current quarter results included a $120 million benefit related to the settlement of insurance claims from a previous acquisition, and $99 million of charges related to the 2024 Transformation Initiative and Kenvue acquisition. 

In a letter signed by 76 representatives, the Real Estate Caucus and the Build America Caucus called on House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to remove harmful provisions in the Senate-passed 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that mandate the forced sale of single-family build-to-rent (BTR) housing.  The letter stated that Section 901 of the Senate bill, as drafted, “would have far reaching and unintended consequences that run counter to the bill’s stated goal of expanding housing opportunity.” The 76 lawmakers further warned that the Section 901 language would exacerbate the housing affordability crisis by severely curtailing the production of BTR housing nationwide. …NAHB estimates that single-family housing starts may drop by 40,000 units per year as a result of this mandate. Moreover, the Urban Institute says this provision targeting BTR owners could  “decrease the number of rental units built each year by at least 72,000.”

US population growth slowed notably in the latest Vintage 2025 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, with the nation expanding by just 0.5% in 20251, roughly half the pace of the prior year. The deceleration was primarily driven by a sharp decline in net international migration (NIM), which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, while natural change remained relatively stable. Population gains remain concentrated in the South and parts of the West, while many areas in the Midwest and Northeast experienced slower growth or population declines. …At the county level, population growth slowed across much of the country. Among the nation’s 3,143 counties and the District of Columbia, the majority experienced decelerating population gains in 2025. …Population flows continue to shift away from the largest and most expensive counties toward smaller and less densely populated areas.

US softwood lumber demand moves more with residential construction than with GDP per capita or lumber prices when housing starts are included directly in the demand equation, a new USDA study finds. Using quarterly US data from 2000 to 2024, the study estimates a housing-starts elasticity of 0.593 for apparent softwood lumber consumption, compared with an income elasticity of 0.138 and a price elasticity of -0.212, then applies those elasticities in a forest-sector model to project outcomes through 2070 under five scenarios. …The authors incorporate housing starts into the Forest Resource Outlook Model by adding housing activity alongside GDP per capita growth and price changes in the model’s demand updating equation. …In the five scenarios, the model projects U.S. softwood lumber consumption declines by 2070, with the scenario 5 outcome the highest, the scenario 3 outcome the lowest, and scenarios 1, 2, and 4 in between. The study says the lowest case takes consumption to around 60 million m3 by 2070.